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NewBase 02 February 2017 - Issue No. 995 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
UAE's contributions to solar energy helped costs drop
across the globe: Japanese study
(WAM) - A Japanese study has said the UAE s support for renewable energy contributed to make
solar energy cheap and it is now becoming cheaper to produce, with bid prices for solar and wind
power projects in Europe and the Middle East dropping to levels comparable to coal-fired thermal
power.
The study, conducted by the Japan s Nikkei, said that the UAE s Dubai Electricity and Water
Authority, DEWA, received bids in the range of US 2 Cents per kilowatt-hour in proposals for solar

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projects, with the long sunlight hours in the Middle East ensuring stable production of solar
energy.The study also noted that a Chinese-led consortium, with a bid of US 2.42 Cents per
kilowatt-hour, successfully built a 350MW solar plant.
DEWA also awarded a solar project to an alliance, led by Abu Dhabi Future Energy or Masdar, at
a strike price of US 2.99 Cents per kilowatt-hour, it said.
"Renewable energy has been costly in the past, but many countries began to subsidise it in the
2000s in an effort to fight global warming and diversify their energy sources. This has helped the
costs of equipment and construction to decrease as the market expands, and making number of
Western companies in such fields as information technology have begun buying all their energy
from renewable sources as prices fall," the report said.
Besides solar energy, offshore wind power has good potential to become a stable energy source.
Many wind farms are established in windy shoals in the North and Baltic Seas.
As per data from the International Energy Agency, IEA, solar energy production costs have
dropped 80 percent in the last five years while onshore wind power costs have fallen by nearly 70
percent. Onshore wind power costs have fallen below US10 Cents per kilowatt-hour. Coal-fired
thermal power typically goes for US 5-7 Cents per kilowatt-hour.
The study also noted that solar power from South America, Mexico or California is cheaper than
coal-fired thermal power even without subsidies, according to Iberdrola, Spain s biggest energy
producer. When crude oil prices rise, they raise the costs of fossil fuel energy, making renewable
energy more competitive.
The IEA found that in 2015, renewable energy output capacity reached 153 million kilowatts,
cumulatively surpassing coal-fired thermal power for the first time. In percentage terms, it
comprises only 14 percent of the world s total energy output due to its low generating efficiency,
but the IEA estimates that by 2021, it will exceed a figure "equivalent to the total electricity
generation of the United States and the European Union put together today."

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Cheaper renewables to halt coal and oil demand growth from 2020
By Nina Chestney | LONDON
The falling cost of electric vehicle and solar technology will halt demand growth for vehicle and
solar technology will halt demand growth for oil and coal from 2020, according to research
published on Thursday, posing a threat to fossil fuel companies unprepared for the transition.
The Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and independent think tank Carbon Tracker
Initiative analyzed cost forecasts for electric vehicle (EV) and solar photovoltaic (PV) technology,
government policies and the impact on road transport and
power markets, which account for half of global fossil fuel
consumption.
"Fossil fuels may lose 10 percent of market share to PV
and EVs within a single decade. This may not sound much
but it can be the beginning of the end once demand starts
to decline," Carbon Tracker said in a statement.
A 10 percent loss of market share caused the collapse of
the U.S. coal mining industry and Europe's five biggest utilities lost more than 100 billion euros
($108 billion) in value from 2008-2013 because they were unprepared for renewable energy
growth, it added.
The report said that electric vehicles could make up a third of the world's road transport market by
2035 and that solar PV could supply 23 percent of global power generation by 2040, entirely
phasing out coal and leaving natural gas with only a 1 percent market share.
Growth in the number of electric vehicles could lead to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil
demand being displaced by 2025, the report estimates.
That would be similar to the volume of oversupply that led to the 2014/15 collapse in oil prices. By
2040, 16 million bpd could be displaced, rising to 25 million bpd by 2050, it said. The International
Energy Agency has said that 2 million bpd of oil could be displaced by electric vehicles by 2040.

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Bloomberg New Energy Finance has forecast that such displacement could occur as early as
2028.
MISPLACED CONFIDENCE?
"Coal demand could peak in 2020 and fall to half of 2012 levels by 2050. Oil demand could be flat
from 2020 to 2030 then fall steadily to 2050," Thursday's report said.
By contrast, the International Energy Agency said this week it does not expect oil demand to peak
any time soon.
Last week BP said that it expects global oil demand to continue growing into the 2040s, citing
increased plastics consumption, while U.S. peer ExxonMobil has said that it sees fossil fuels
meeting almost 80 percent of global energy needs by 2040.
"Oil majors already do scenario analysis but, as Exxon previously indicated, they do not assign
sufficient probability to a rapid (low-carbon) transition," said James Leaton, head of research at
Carbon Tracker Initiative. "There appears to be a desire to justify business-as-usual at some
companies, which does not constitute sound risk management."
Several studies have warned investors that measures to curb carbon emissions growth will hit
earnings at coal, oil and gas companies as the world shifts to cleaner energy.
Low oil prices over the past couple of years have also forced companies to reduce spending and
shelve deals on oil and gas fields. Royal Dutch Shell on Tuesday announced $4.7 billion in asset
sales, including a large chunk of its North Sea portfolio, and Exxon posted its lowest quarterly
profit since 1999 as it wrote down the book value of part of its North American gas and crude
reserves

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Qatar emerges topper in Mideast outbound M&A by value in 2016
Gulf Times
Fast-growing Qatar, which has embarked on diversification, emerged topper in the Middle East
outbound merger and acquisition (M&A) by value in 2016, mainly on account of its sovereign
wealth fund-led consortium’s multi-billion dollar investments in Russian oil company, according to
Baker McKenzie.
“Qatar topped the full-year 2016 by value with deals worth $13.35bn, driven by the $11.27bn
investment in Russia’s Rosneft Oil Company by a consortium led by Qatar Investment Authority,”
Baker McKenzie Habib Al Mulla said in a report.
The Rosneft deal value alone constituted more than 84% of the total deals value in 2016, it said.
However, the UAE drove four of the top five outbound M&A deals by value during the fourth
quarter (Q4) in 2016, it said.
The report found that outbound cross-regional M&A deals fuelled by the Middle East totalled 74 in
2016 (compared to 72 in the previous year) with the UAE constituting 36 transactions, followed by
Qatar and Bahrain with 16 and 9 deals respectively.
The top sector by value for 2016 outbound Middle East M&A was the energy and utilities sector
with $12.2bn worth deals, and the top sector by volume was the consumer sector with 12 deals.
The Middle East region saw robust cross-border M&A, particularly on inbound deals, even as the
global M&A activities were on the decline in 2016, the report said.
Despite being a long way off Q4 2015’s record-breaking Middle East Index figure of 591.5, the Q4
2016 Index of 181.6 doubled that of the third quarter (91.2) and underlined the continued strength
of cross-regional M&A activity in the region, with the UAE as the dominant country for both
inbound and outbound deals in Q4 2016, it said in a report.

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“Cross-border M&A activity in the Middle East has seen a robust year of deal making in spite of
investor uncertainty and market instability,” Will Seiverwright, Corporate/M&A partner at Baker
McKenzie, said.
The “remarkable”
increase in cross-
regional transaction
value and steady flow
of deals for 2016 bodes
well for M&A in the
coming year, according
to him.
George Sayen, Head of
Corporate Practice
Group at Baker
McKenzie’s associated
firm in Riyadh, said
cross-border M&A in
the region has fared
relatively well in 2016,
notwithstanding global
political and economic
volatility.
“Looking forward, we
expect Saudi Arabia’s
Vision 2030 to generate
considerable deal
activity in specified
sectors such as
technology, healthcare,
education and
transport,” he added.
The value of inbound
Middle East M&A deals
more than doubled
year-on-year to $10bn
in 2016 mainly on a few
mega deals in the
transportation and
energy and utilities sectors. Inbound cross-regional deal volumes, however, remained flat at 29 in
2016.
The UAE was the standout target country by volume for both Q4 and full-year 2016 with 18 of the
29 deals in 2016, followed by Oman with three deals and Saudi Arabia with two. On the other
hand, Kuwait was the top target country by value for 2016 with Hapag-Lloyd’s $5.4bn acquisition
of Kuwait’s United Arab Shipping Company.
The Transportation sector was top by value for 2016, with deals valued at $5.53bn, and the
energy and utilities sector was top by volume for the year, with six deals valued at $3.6bn, the
report said.

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Iraq: Gulf Keystone trading statement and operational update
Source: Gulf Keystone
Gulf Keystone, operator of the Shaikan field in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, has provided a
Trading and Operational update. This is in advance of the Company's full year results for the
period ended 31 December 2016 which will be announced on Thursday 6 April 2017. The
information contained herein has not been audited and may be subject to further review and
amendment.

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2016 Highlights
• Average gross production for the year at 34,794 barrels of oil per day ('bopd') - within the
upper-end of our 31,000-35,000 bopd guidance
• Cumulative gross payments of $142.5 million received from the Kurdistan Regional
Government's Ministry of Natural Resources ('MNR')
• Plant uptime (at PF-1 and PF-2) of over 98%, once adjusted for export constraints, and
strong safety performance with no lost-time incidents
• The Company completed its financial restructuring on 13 October 2016 with a reinstated
debt balance of $100 million and a $25 million equity raise through an Open Offer
Outlook
• Average gross production during January 2017 was 37,196 bopd with only minor export
disruptions, maximum daily production reached 38,384 bopd
• Production data from Shaikan continues to support the interpretations made in the most
recent Competent Person's Report ('CPR') published 31 August 2016, which reported gross
Shaikan 2P Reserves of 622 million barrels of oil ('MMbo') and gross 2C resources of 239
MMbo as at 30 June 2016.
• The Company is progressing in its ongoing discussions with the MNR regarding
commercial and contractual conditions, in particular those around a regular and timely
payment cycle, and crude marketing arrangements. Subject to further clarity on these
points, the Company looks forward to making further investments to achieve plateau
production at nameplate capacity of 40,000 bopd. Accordingly, gross production guidance
for 2017 is being set at 32,000-38,000 bopd. Without further investment in the field, beyond
maintenance capital, we would expect to achieve the lower-end of our guidance range.
• Management team recently reinforced with the appointment of Stuart Catterall as Chief
Operating Officer in January 2017
• Cash position of $104 million as at 31 January 2017
• All Gulf Keystone operations remain safe and secure
Jón Ferrier, Chief Executive Officer, said:
'I am very pleased to announce a strong operational performance during 2016, achieving average
daily production at the top of our guidance range. We have an increasingly well understood field
which continues to perform in line with expectations, a healthy balance sheet, and stand ready to
further invest in the Shaikan field. However, commercial and contractual clarity around payments
and marketing remain key to achieving production growth and realising full value potential.'

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Indonesia: Eni successfully appraises Merakes discovery
Source: Eni
Eni has successfully drilled and tested Merakes 2, the first appraisal well of the Merakes
discovery under the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) in East Sepinggan. The block is located in
the prolific offshore Kutei Basin and the Merakes discovery is 35km from the Eni-operated
Jangkrik field, which is expected to start producing through a Floating-Production Unit in the
second quarter of this year.
The well, drilled to a depth of 2,732m in 1,269m of water depth, encountered 17 meters of clean
sands with very good petrophysical characteristics of Pliocene age confirming the the extension
also in this new area of the 2014 discovery by the well Merakes 1.
The production test, which was limited by surface facilities, recorded an excellent gas deliverability
of the Merakes reservoir, and allowed to collect all the necessary data and information to perform
all the studies for the future commercial exploitation of the discovery. Merakes discovery is
currently estimated to have 2.0 Tcf of gas in place with further additional potential to be evaluated.
The proximity of Merakes 2 discovery to the Jangkrik field will allow to maximizing the synergies
with existing nearby infrastructures as well as to reduce costs and time of the execution of the
future subsea development it confirms the success of Eni the “near field” exploration and appraisal
strategy .
Eni is the operator of East Sepinggan PSC with its affiliate Eni East Sepinggan holding 85%
Participating Interest while Pertamina Hulu Energy holds the remaining 15%. Eni has been
operating in Indonesia since 2001 and currently has a large portfolio of assets in exploration,
production and development.
In the Kutei Basin in early 2014, Eni started the development activities of the deep offshore
Jangkrik gas field in the Muara Bakau PSC. Production activities are located in the Mahakam
River delta, East Kalimantan through the participated Company VICO Ltd (Eni 50%, Saka 50%)
operator of the Sanga Sanga PSC that provides an average equity production of 16,000 barrels of
oil equivalent per day.

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India Plans to Create Oil Giant by Integrating State-Run Firms
by Saket Sundria and Debjit Chakraborty
India is planning to create a state-owned oil giant through mergers to match the might of
international companies and billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries Ltd.
“We see opportunities to strengthen our central public-sector enterprises through consolidation,
mergers and acquisitions,” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in Parliament while presenting the
federal budget for the year beginning April 1. “It will give them the capacity to bear high risk, avail
economies of scale, take higher investment decision and create more value for stakeholders.”
India is overtaking Japan as the world’s third-largest oil consumer and will be the center of global
growth through 2040, according to the International Energy Agency. Its upstream production is
dominated by Oil and Natural Gas Corp., which operates independently of the biggest refiner,
Indian Oil Corp. Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Oil Corp. are the two other state-owned
refiners, while Oil India Ltd. is a smaller oil and gas producer. GAIL India Ltd. is the country’s
largest gas pipeline operator.
India oil and gas companies are small compared with some of their global peers. The combined
market capitalization of India’s top eight state-owned oil and gas companies is about $105 billion.

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Such an entity would rank seventh among global oil firms, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
While size matters in the global oil and gas industry, ensuring governance will be equally
important so that an inefficient behemoth isn’t created, said Debasish Mishra, a partner at Deloitte
Touche Tohmatsu LLP in Mumbai.
Shares of Indian Oil closed 2.5 percent higher at 375.45 rupees in Mumbai. ONGC fell 1.2 percent
to 200.20 rupees.
Such an integration would require political and administrative will, said Deepak Mahurkar, leader
India oil and gas industry practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers Pvt. Attempts at merging Indian oil
companies have been made in the past, he said.
In an interview in August, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan had said the government is seeking
an appropriate model for combining India’s state-run oil companies.
“Creating an integrated oil major will help achieve the goal of increasing India’s energy security,”
said ONGC Chairman Dinesh Kumar Sarraf. “A bigger entity will have bigger resources and a
bigger appetite for acquisitions.”

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NewBase 02 February 2017 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
US oil prices fall after sharp rise in stockpiles
Reuters + NewBase
U.S. oil fell on Thursday after official data showed U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles rose
sharply, although signs that OPEC and other producers are holding the line on output cuts are
helping support prices.
Front month futures for West Texas Intermediate were down 34 cents at $53.54 a barrel at 0016
GMT on Thursday. They rose $1.07 to close at $53.88 the day before. Trading of Brent crude had
not started. The contract settled up $1.22 a barrel at $56.80 on Wednesday.
U.S. crude stocks grew last week, along with gasoline and distillate inventories, the Energy
Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refiners let stocks build further in a seasonally
slow season for production.
Crude inventories rose 6.5 million barrels in the week to Jan. 27, far exceeding analyst
expectations for an increase of 3.3 million barrels.
Gasoline stocks climbed by 3.9 million barrels, compared with analyst expectations in a Reuters
poll for a 1-million barrel gain. Gasoline demand has been seasonally weak, down 5.7 percent
from a year ago over the past four weeks.
But indications that producers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and
others including Russia are curbing output helped underpin prices. Russia cut production in
January by around 100,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to data seen by Reuters. Earlier this
week, a Reuters survey found high compliance by OPEC with agreed cuts. The curbs follow last
year's agreement to lower supplies by a combined 1.8 million bpd to prop up prices that remain at
about half their mid-2014 levels.
Oil price special
coverage

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Oil Snoozes After OPEC Jolt as Market Awaits Supply Cut Proof
by Ben Sharples
The oil market’s drifting in snooze mode as investors await evidence of global supply curbs aimed
at easing a glut.
A measure of oil volatility last month averaged the lowest in more than two years and futures in
New York have been stuck between $50 and $55 a barrel since OPEC and other producing
nations agreed Dec. 10 to reduce output. Price estimates compiled by Bloomberg show crude will
average $52 during the first quarter this year, rising to $58 in the last three months of 2017.
Oil slumped to a 12-year low early last year and whiplashed between bull and bear markets before
firming on the supply agreement between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and
11 non-members. Signs of compliance may come from OPEC’s monthly report Feb. 13, while the
International Energy Agency will update it’s measure of global inventories Feb. 10. Media outlets,
including Bloomberg, also publish production estimates based on surveys.

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“When we start to see some data come through in February, it may ignite the market a little bit
more, in either direction,” said Daniel Hynes, an analyst in Sydney at Australia & New Zealand
Banking Group Ltd. “The price isn’t really going anywhere at the moment.”
While the pledges have boosted prices, higher U.S. output has raised speculation that any rally
above $55 may be self-defeating. The country’s production has climbed to the highest since April
and Pioneer Natural Resources Co., which focuses on the Permian Basin in Texas, sees the
nation pumping this year near its 2015 peak.
OPEC and its partners are seeking to trim output by about 1.8 million barrels a day during the first
six months of 2017. To monitor the cuts, OPEC’s secretariat will present a report on the 17th day
of each month to a committee made up of ministers from Kuwait, Russia, Algeria, Venezuela and
Oman. The committee will also assess data from each country, as well as from external sources.
‘Holding Pattern’
Output by OPEC’s 13 members averaged 33.085 million barrels a day in December, the group
said in its monthly report Jan. 18.
West Texas Intermediate for March delivery traded at $52.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange, up 4 cents, at 9:10 a.m. in London. Prices slid 1.7 percent in January, the first monthly
decline in three months. The CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index, which measures expectations of
price swings, averaged 31.28 last month, the lowest since October 2014.
“Oil is in a bit of a holding pattern at the moment,” said Mark Keenan, the head of commodities
research for Asia at Societe Generale SA in Singapore. “The market needs some time to see how
the cuts play out.”
OPEC oil output cut by 82% in January ’17
OPEC’s oil output is set to fall by more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, a Reuters
survey found on Tuesday, pointing to a strong start by the exporter group in implementing its first
supply cut deal in eight years.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to cut its output by about 1.2
million bpd from Jan. 1 to prop up oil prices and reduce a supply glut.
Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the deal has averaged 30.01
million bpd, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from industry
sources, down from 31.17 million bpd in December.
Compared with the levels that the countries agreed to make the reductions from – in most cases
their October output – OPEC members have cut production by 958,000 bpd of the pledged 1.164
million bpd, equating to 82 percent compliance.
Compliance of 80 percent comfortably exceeds the initial 60 percent achieved when the previous
cuts deal was implemented in 2009, and the survey adds to indications that adherence so far has
been high.
“This is very high, a good number,” an OPEC source said of the January compliance estimate. “I
hope it continues.”
Oil edged above $55 a barrel on Tuesday. The cuts agreed by OPEC, Russia and other
independent producers has helped to lift prices from a 12-year low near $27 a year ago.

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The January drop in OPEC output has been offset slightly by higher supply from Libya and
Nigeria, which are both exempt from the OPEC agreement because of output losses caused by
conflict.
Saudi Arabia has reduced output to less than 10 million bpd in January, industry sources told
Reuters, implementing a bigger cut than it had agreed to set a good example on compliance.
Iran, which was allowed to raise output under the OPEC deal because sanctions had crimped past
supply, pumped an additional 20,000 bpd.
OPEC announced a production target of 32.5 million bpd at its Nov. 30 meeting, which was based
on low figures for Libya and Nigeria and included Indonesia, which has since left the group.
Combined output in January from all members is about 520,000 bpd above the target, adjusted to
remove Indonesia, the survey showed.
The Reuters survey is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Thomson Reuters
flows data and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consulting firms.

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NewBase Special Coverage
News Agencies News Release 02 Feb. 2017
Exxon’s New Chief Faces Same Old Question
By Liam Denning
A lot has happened to Exxon Mobil Corp. in the past 12 months, not least ex-CEO Rex Tillerson
leaving in order to become Secretary of State (he may be confirmed on Wednesday).
In one important respect, though, the oil major is in the same position it was this time last year.
In early 2016, the oil sector was in free fall, but Exxon was stuck in a rut. As I wrote here, it was
too tied to oil to beat the market if energy prices remained depressed but not tied closely enough
to beat smaller E&P rivals if there was a recovery.
That’s pretty much how the past year played out.
Sour '16
Exxon's returns have lagged those of its peers and the broader market over the past year
Note: As per 12 months ending January 31st, 2017. E&P sector as per SPDR S&P Oil & Gas
Exploration & Production ETF. S&P 500 as per SPDR S&P 500 Trust.

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As 2017 gets underway, this dilemma still holds.
Exxon’s great advantage is its well-earned reputation for being the proverbial steady ship. This
has taken a series of hits over the past year, culminating in Tuesday’s fourth-quarter results
announcement.
Exxon beat earnings estimates, and it managed a rebound in production from the previous
quarter’s dismal showing. Still, some of those earnings came from an unusual positive swing in
the corporate income line, and production was still 3 percent lower than a year earlier.
Overshadowing it all was a $2 billion asset impairment -- about as rare as a comet sighting when it
comes to Exxon. Even if you add the charge back in, the company’s upstream U.S. business --
weighed down by a high exposure to low natural gas prices -- clocked up its eighth straight
quarterly loss. Meanwhile, although the final number won’t be known for a couple of weeks, Exxon
has warned already that some proved reserves in Canada will be de-booked due to low prices --
at least temporarily -- setting the company up for another set of weak reserves replacement
figures.
Consequently, while Exxon’s traditional valuation premium to its peers actually increased in 2015,
the first year of the oil crash, that all changed in 2016:
Gravity
Exxon's premium fell from more than double a year ago and has continued sliding in 2017
Note: Market-cap weighted average for Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Total.

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Oh the humanity and all that. Still, a 50 percent premium remains big in absolute terms; it would
be a stretch to say Exxon's stock is a screaming value play.
Once again, therefore, an investor in the sector faces a dilemma on the stock.
If you can trust in OPEC’s supply cuts and not worry about potential trade conflicts emanating
from the White House, then U.S. E&P stocks will likely benefit more sharply than Exxon from the
increase in oil prices. That’s especially so given the potential for windfall profits in the near term if
the U.S. adopts a proposed border-adjustment tax (this could also potentially hurt global oil majors
like Exxon).
Meanwhile, if oil stays flat or even falls, then it’s hard to see Exxon doing better than the market
overall, similar to 2016. For one thing, it would crimp the major’s ability to restart stock
repurchases. Last year’s cash flow from operations and selling assets was still a staggering $26.4
billion, but that was not enough to cover $31.8 billion of capital expenditure and dividends.
So when Tillerson’s successor, Darren Woods, takes the stage for his first annual Exxon analyst
day in a month's time, he will at least enjoy the privilege of starting at a low point.
Plus, with several new projects due to start up in 2017, analysts currently forecast Exxon to make
$16.6 billion of free cash flow, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That would be enough to
cover the dividend, at least.
Woods' big challenge, though, is to restore the company's calling card: return on capital. Investing
and acquiring at the top mean returns have dropped from about 24 percent in 2006 -- when
Tillerson took the helm -- to, by my calculation, an estimated 4 percent in 2016.
That Exxon is, unusually, raising its investment budget this year can be viewed as a sign of
confidence. Equally, though, investors will require more to take it as such.

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NewBase February 2017 K. Al Awadi

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