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Anticipate and Adapt

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This presentation focuses on the key threats to Defense industries worldwide, specifically around four categories of security: border, civil, cyber and resource.

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Anticipate and Adapt

  1. 1. The World is Changing: Anticipate and Adapt KPMG Global Defense
  2. 2. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 1 ■ Demographics ■ Rise of the individual ■ Enabling technology ■ Economic interconnectedness ■ Public debt ■ Economic power shift ■ Climate change ■ Resource stress ■ Urbanization Megatrends changing our future world
  3. 3. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 2 Key risks to Defense Increased risk to borders Increased frequency and scale of cyber attacks Increased risk of terror threats and attacks CHANGING NATURE OF CONFLICTS Increased risk of internal and interstate conflicts
  4. 4. Defense will be required to innovate and reform its approach to security to respond effectively to both anticipated and inconceivable threats. CIVIL SECURITY RESOURCE SECURITY CYBER SECURITY BORDER SECURITY SECURITY
  5. 5. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 4 Defense will be more susceptible to cyber attacks than ever before as disruptive technologies evolve and the value of big data grows. Defense will need to grow their capability to protect their nation and their own operations from the potentially disabling impacts of cyber attacks. The command and control of most forces, the intelligence and logistics on which they depend, and their weapons technologies, all depend on computer systems and networks. William J. Lynn III, US Deputy Defense Secretary Already, cyber attacks account for USD300 Billion to USD1 Trillion in global losses. $ Cyber weapons are in their infancy and are expected to rapidly evolve over the next decade, review of policy at the executive levels of government will be required to address this relatively new dimension of warfare. Source: SDI, “Global Cyber Security Market 2014 – 2024” Source: SDI, “Global Cyber Security Market 2014 – 2024” Greater use of commercial wireless technology decreases cyber security effectiveness, as the number of nodes to be monitored in critical infrastructure and military networks expands.
  6. 6. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 5 The future scale of war is unimaginable, given that even now disruptive technologies and virtual networks broaden the exposure and response to conflicts beyond sovereign borders. Defense will need to redefine the borders it protects to include both physical and virtual worlds, requiring a revolution to our current view of Defense and its war fighting capability. As conflict in the cyber arena increases, critical infrastructure becomes exposed to threats from both enemy states and non- state actors in a new manner. Cyber attacks transcend borders, infiltrating nuclear power plants or disrupting financial systems. Social media has accelerated recent uprisings in the developing world, playing a role in three main dynamics: Organizing protests Shaping the narrative Putting pressure on the international community Terror organizations are currently using websites and popular social media channels to recruit and gather intelligence. Conflict over resources and oversized populations of unemployed youth will drive increased civil unrest and will necessitate continued focus on traditional sovereign border protection.
  7. 7. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 6 Contention over resources is anticipated to increase the threat of internal and interstate conflicts and will necessitate a greater focus on border and resource security measures. Multinational Defense structures and forces will be required to protect the long term sustainability of key resources before they reach critical levels, provoking interstate disputes. The world’s major belt of water stress lies across northern Africa, the Middle East, central and southern Asia, and northern China - this is also the zone of the largest projected population growth during the next 15-20 years.
  8. 8. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 7 The power of network enabling technologies cannot be understated as it provides individuals with disproportionate power and arms them with the capability to threaten an entire nation or global community. EUROPE on high alert, making use of all available forces with up to 300 soldiers mobilized in Brussels, Antwerp and elsewhere. BELGIUM DEPLOYS TROOPS FOLLOWING ANTI-TERROR RAID BBC News Europe, 17 January 2015 AUSTRALIANS can expect greater security at airports, large public events, government buildings and ports as the government has raised the public alert of a terror threat to ‘high’ for the first time in history. TONY ABBOTT RAISES AUSTRALIA’S TERROR THREAT TO HIGH News.com.au, 12 September 2014 A PROMINENT feature of many terrorist attacks in recent months is their independent, spontaneous, unplanned nature – sometimes called the work of lone wolves. CONFRONTING SPONTANEOUS TERRORIST ATTACKS Canada Free Press, 24 February 2015 Defense will be more involved in civil security as threatening individuals or groups leverage network enabling technologies to become internationally integrated global organizations.
  9. 9. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 8 Defense preparedness and capability is at risk of falling behind as the nature of future conflicts, key players and accessible instruments of war evolve at a rapid pace.
  10. 10. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 9 Defense must consider how their organization’s skills and capabilities need to adapt to be ready to fight in anticipated future conflicts and respond to inconceivable threats. VISION Strategy Flexibility and “paradigm” thinking Outcomes and metrics Long-term planning and scenario exercises Behavioural insights Technology adoption Skills & capability Effective stakeholder engagement Systems thinking International awareness Financial sophistication Risk assessment and change management Structures & systems Networked Locally empowered Internationally integrated Highly integrated Flexible and adaptive
  11. 11. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 10 Focus areas for Defense Strategy Flexibility and “paradigm” thinking Outcomes and metrics Long-term planning and scenario exercises Behavioural insights Technology adoption Grow cyber warfare attack and defense skills and capability. Drive multinational knowledge sharing and alignment of policy and governance to identify and eliminate cyber threats. Develop a cyber security strategy to protect Defense capability and national infrastructure from network or system threats.
  12. 12. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 11 Focus areas for Defense CYBER SECURITY Structures & systems Networked Locally empowered Internationally integrated Highly integrated Flexible and adaptive Drive multinational collaboration to identify and manage global risks and threats. Understand multinational capability to respond to global risks and threats. Drive multinational alignment of policy and governance to ensure a common approach to the mitigation and elimination of global risks and threats.
  13. 13. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 12 Focus areas for Defense Skills & capability Effective stakeholder engagement Systems thinking International awareness Financial sophistication Risk assessment and change management Grow capability while managing within a constrained budget. Consider alternative and non- traditional procurement models (e.g. outsourcing, joint venture, shared ownership, leasing). Procure modular and flexible capability that can be integrated with existing and future technology.
  14. 14. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 13 Focus areas for Defense Effective stakeholder engagement Systems thinking International awareness Financial sophistication Risk assessment and change management Develop a multi-dimensional, strategic planning capability that considers global interdependencies. Understand the local and global unintended and intended consequences of actions through scenario analysis techniques. Adopt a systems thinking culture that appreciates the full extent to which global interconnectedness impacts Defense and its operations. Skills & capability
  15. 15. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. No member firm has any authority to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG International have any such authority to obligate or bind any member firm. All rights reserved 14 Let us share our global Defense experience with you. Contact us. Ken Drover Lead Partner Global Defense +61 3 9288 6623 kdrover@kpmg.com.au Contact:
  16. 16. © 2015 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. The KPMG name, logo and “cutting through complexity” are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Although we endeavour to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. Publication Name: The World is Changing: Anticipate and Adapt Date: March 2015 kpmg.com/socialmedia kpmg.com/app kpmg.com/defense

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