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Fast and slow - How our mind jumps to conclusions

The slides are part of a talk given by Dr. Olaf Kummer and me in which we discuss some of the cognitive fallacies that are described in Daniel Kahnemanns book "Thinking fast and slow".

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Fast and slow - How our mind jumps to conclusions

  1. 1. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 1 www.coremedia.com Dangerously Fast How our mind jumps to conclusions 2016-01-15 Kris Lohmann, Olaf Kummer
  2. 2. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 2 www.coremedia.com System 1 and System 2
  3. 3. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 3 www.coremedia.com3 System 1
  4. 4. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 4 www.coremedia.com4 System 1  Immediate  Effortless  Simple  Confident  Associative  Gullible  Lazy
  5. 5. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 5 www.coremedia.com5 System 2 Kingdom: Animalia Phylum: Chordata Class: Mammalia Subclass: Theria Infraclass: Eutheria Order: Artiodactyla Family: Bovidae Subfamily:Bovinae Genus: Bos Species: Taurus
  6. 6. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 6 www.coremedia.com6 System 2  Formal  Deductive  Complex  Slow  Tiring  Lazy Kingdom: Animalia Phylum: Chordata Class: Mammalia Subclass: Theria Infraclass: Eutheria Order: Artiodactyla Family: Bovidae Subfamily:Bovinae Genus: Bos Species: Taurus
  7. 7. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 7 www.coremedia.com Falacies
  8. 8. 8 Exercise 1 Estimation
  9. 9. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 9 www.coremedia.com9 Anchoring  Answer  Luxembourg 550000, France 67000000  Nobody knows.  Numbers influence  even if unrelated  even if aware of the influence  The mind likes to reuse.
  10. 10. 10 Exercise 2 Likelihood
  11. 11. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 11 www.coremedia.com11 Conjunction Falacy  Estimate plausbility instead of likelihood  More details  more plausible  less likely  The minds likes associations, stories, plausibility.
  12. 12. 12 Exercise 3 Prognosis
  13. 13. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 13 www.coremedia.com13 Substitution  The question: Will Facebook make profit by offering the messenger as separate solution?  Substitute questions:  Do I like Facebook?  Do I use messengers?  ...  The mind likes simplicity.
  14. 14. 14 Exercise 4 Choice
  15. 15. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 15 www.coremedia.com15 Endowment  Losses loom higher than gains.  Unflexible  Risk averse  Fearful  Status quo is kept  The mind dislikes losses.
  16. 16. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 16 www.coremedia.com16 Endowment  Homo economicus: It is possible to assign a fixed value to a day of vacation. Meeting this value, the indifference point, selling and buying does not need additional incentives.  A vaction day should have the same value in Euros regardless of whether it is given or taken.
  17. 17. 17 Exercise 5 Big problems
  18. 18. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 18 www.coremedia.com18 Availability Bias  Answer:  ebola: about 30000 infections  dengue fever: about 300000000 infections  WYSIATI: What you see it all there is.  Ease of retrieving an example  Emotional effect  The mind likes availability, drama.
  19. 19. 19 Exercise 6 Looking back
  20. 20. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 20 www.coremedia.com20 Unlikely Events  Answer: There is no record in modern times of any person being killed by a meteorite.  Small probabilities are almost impossible to get right.  The mind likes known unknowns.
  21. 21. 21 Exercise 7 Looking forward
  22. 22. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 22 www.coremedia.com22 Unlikely Events  Nobody knows. Did you?  Keep in mind that big asteroids hit earth every few thousand years, possibly near a shore, killing thousands or millions.  The mind does not like large numbers either.
  23. 23. 23 Exercise 8 Looking at yourself
  24. 24. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 24 www.coremedia.com24 Overconfidence  The median person drives better than 50% of the people.  Fallacy applies to simple tasks.  The mind likes itself.                                                       
  25. 25. 25 Exercise 9 Looking at others https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E3h-T3KQNxU
  26. 26. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 26 www.coremedia.com26 WYSIATI  What you see is all there is.  Information that has not been retrieved from memory might as well not exist.  System 1 excels at constructing the best story with the information currently activated, but does not regard information that it currently does not have.
  27. 27. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 27 www.coremedia.com Miscellanea
  28. 28. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 28 www.coremedia.com28 Other Effects  Regret  Hindsight  Base rates  Ego depletion  Halo effect  Ignoring regression to the mean  Two selves  Overestimate of validity To name but a few.
  29. 29. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 29 www.coremedia.com The Book
  30. 30. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 | 30 www.coremedia.com30 Daniel Kahneman: Thinking, Fast and Slow Penguin Books 512 pages ISBN-10: 0141033576 ISBN-13: 978-0141033570
  31. 31. 31 It‘s coffee machine time.
  32. 32. © CoreMedia | 03.02.16 Singapore asia-info@coremedia.com tel +65.6562.8866 Hamburg info@coremedia.com tel +49.40.32 55 87.0 San Francisco usa-info@coremedia.com tel +1.415.371.0400 London uk-info@coremedia.com tel +44.207.849.3317 Washington info@coremedia.com tel +1.703.945.1079 www.coremedia.com kris.lohmann@coremedia.com olaf.kummer@coremedia.com

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