Year 2016 will see 3G subscription surpassing 2G subscription and will be more than 220million. Countrywide launch by 3G/4G/LTE Services by Indian Telecom Operators will take Broadband Subscriber base to 600million by 2020. Further Digital India Initiative by Government of India to Rural India will take Broadband Subscriber to 1 Billion by 2023.

1. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
INDIA ON CUSP OF DIGITAL REVOLUTION
Internet is largest single factor which has revolutionized the ways & speed of our
communication and doing business transaction and effectively it brought significant
increase in average productivity of an individual. People can’t forget dialing sound of
Narrowband Internet service during initial few years of 21st century. No matter
whether Internet access speed was just narrowband, this became lifeline service for
people and business community to connect & transact business. Service was made
available to all Wireless telephone subscribers and People used this service
extensively for exchange of information/knowledge in a way that could hardly have
been dreamed of 20 years back. This provided alternate way to costly speed-
post/courier service to exchange information/documents for immediate requirement.
Between years 2001 to 2005, Narrowband Dialup Subscriber base rose up to 2 Million,
primarily led by BSNL. In the backend at NOC, we used to continuously monitor and
put innovate technology/mechanism to self-heal and keep this service working on
24x7 basis throughout country.
First countrywide fixed Broadband Service was launched by BSNL in 2005 and
within a year, Broadband subscriber base rosed to 1million subs and to more than
5million subs by 2009 with almost 50% growth rate. However after 8 years, with all
operators together, Fixed Broadband base remains at poor 16million.
Overall Internet Subscriber base (Wireless & Wireline) in India has increased to more
than 368million by end of ’2015, of which Broadband (Wireless & Wireline) Internet
Subscriber base is at 135million, Most of Broadband Subscriber growth has happened
over Wireless networks. India Broadband density is at 11 while world average of
Broadband penetration is 10.
Broadband Internet connectivity has potential to create regional economy centers
particularly in semi-urban and rural area. According to World Band report, 10%
increase of Broadband Penetration lead to growth of GDP by 1.6%.

2. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
Some of factors of low broadband growth during years 2009 to 2014 are...
 Wireline Operators failed to capitalize on Wireline Subscriber base. India had
30+million wireline Subscribers in year 2009, primarily led by BSNL and MTNL
however it went on declining and is mere 14million in year 2015. Operators failed
to give reliable broadband service due to poor maintenance of Wireline copper
network. Further poor post-sales customer care & support service diminished all
hope of growth. People preferred connecting to Internet using Wireless network.
It is also important to note that Wireline infrastructure is very CAPEX & OPEX
intensive and Telecom Operator has not been keen to put fresh investment in old
network and technology.
 Telecom Operator’s business model have been for long focused on monetization of
wireless voice Network (2G/CDMA). Revenue from Voice, VAS and GPRS based
Internet Services maintained upward trend till year 2013. Afterwards two factors
played key role in declining voice revenue 1. Competitive pricing pressure from
new operators and stagnant voice volume 2. Increased utilization of OTT
messaging by consumers for communication. During this time while voice revenue
went into decline, good news was that most of telecom operator reported data
revenue with two digit growth and data revenue became almost 20% of total
revenue.

3. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
By year 2015, total internet subscriber base increased to more than 370million of
which GPRS (2G) Internet Subscribers were 220million, Wireless Broadband
Subscriber (3G,4G) were 133million and Wireline Broadband were 16million.
 High 3G Data tariff led to slow uptake of 3G connections and data volume.
Average GPRS (2G) internet data volume per user is approx. 100MB per month
and it is 400MB for WBA subscriber. Data traffic from 2G network contributed
75% of total data traffic. Data traffic analysis shows that most of mobile traffic
generated from 2G network is Web traffic (81%) while from 3G network, it is
primarily video traffic. In year 2015 most of operators significantly reduced 3G
data tariff and increased 2G data tariff which has resulted in doubling of average
data volume per 3G subscriber. Further 3G data traffic has grown by 80% while
2G data traffic has grown by 50%. This indicates that affordable, high-speed
broadband availability encourages heavy data consumption and will further ramp
up 3G subscriptions.
By end of year 2016, it is expected that 3G subscription will
surpass 2G data subscription and will be more than
220million.
 High Cost of 3G Network Acquisition was also impediment in creating
countrywide foot print of Wireless Broadband Access network (based on 3G, 4G,
LTE) network for delivering Wireless Broadband Service. It took more than 10
years to have 2G Voice network to have complete foot-print across India. WBA
network needs almost three times initial CAPEX in comparison to 2G network to
cover same geographical area. Wireless Broadband Access (WBA) over 3G, 4G
network requires deployment of approx. 3 times number of Macro Cells to cover
the target population since each of cell has maximum range of 1-2km depending
on topology and terrain conditions. Operators were more focused to cover Urban
areas having Business Hubs, Market Places, Industrial Areas, Residential areas
and other areas where there is higher penetration of Smart Phones with local
population but still connected to 2G network. WBA network needs 3x3 MIMO

4. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
operation for better data rate and reliability of Video content delivery. Telecom
Operators were forced to have focus on Wireless Broadband Internet Services
delivered through EVDO/3G/4G/LTE based wireless network along with combined
strategy of pushing Smartphone penetration to make business viable &
sustainable.
 Affordability of service: Higher 3G tariff and unavailability of low Cost Smart
Phones led to slow growth of Smart phones and 3G subscription. For larger
population, Internet tariff was far from being affordable enough to push internet
subscription and data volume growth. Till year 2013, Smart Phone devices
penetration in India were mere 76 million which was primary reason for slow
deployment of WBA network by telecom operators. By end of 2015, India has more
than 160million Smart Phones, growing @35% and will have more than 250million
Smart Phones by end of year 2016. Wireless Broadband Subscribers is presently
growing at rate more than 40-50%. To support this subscription growth, smart
device growth also need to catch up which is can be enabled through availability
of low cost domestic manufactured smart phones.
 Limited Radio Bandwidth: From operator’s perspective, the cost of deploying
3G/4G based Wireless Broadband Network (including spectrum charges) is more
than three times of 2G network to provide same geographical radio coverage. Due
to limited radio bandwidth and ever increasing data traffic, Cost of delivering per
MB of data over WBA network becomes further significantly high with respect to
Fixed Access Broadband as more and more number of base stations are required
to be set-up. Ever increasing per user Data volume growth have forced telecom
operator to plan multiple expansions of WBA network while data tariff is also on
decline. These reasons has led to situation of slow expansion of network and slow
pace of reduction of per MB tariff.

5. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
Mission 1Billion Broadband Subscribers by Year 2023
National Telecom Policy’ 2011 aimed for achieving 600million Broadband subscriber
base by year 2020. Year 2015 saw Broadband Subscriber base reaching up to
120million.
India Telecom Market is waiting to see few industry events to happen need which
will push Broadband growth rate to more than 40-50% to achieve 600+million
subscriber base by Year 2020.
1. Year 2016 to see Country wide launch of 4G/LTE Service which is likely to make
Broadband internet service more affordable and will push average annual
Broadband Subscription addition to more than 70+million per annum.
Year 2020 will see India Broadband Subscriber base to
reach 600+million.
2. Year 2020 is likely to see completion of Government’s Rural National Optical
Fiber Network project (NOFN). NOFN project is expected to deliver Robust,
Scalable, Reliable network and deliver and connect service provider providers for
their retail & enterprise services requirement. This project will enable all Telecom
Operators to reach out to large rural population which will further push average
annual Broadband Subscription addition to more than 100+million per annum.
Year 2023 is likely to see India Broadband Subscriber base
to reach 1Billion.

6. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
These two key industry events will have to address following imperatives to trigger
Broadband Revolution in India which can boost GDP to increase by 30% in next 3
years from current level.
 Improving Urban Broadband Network Coverage
 Improving Service Quality
 Affordable Devices for Urban and Rural Consumers
 Lowering International Internet Bandwidth at POI
 Digital India mission to Connect Rural India and far flung corners of India
Improving Urban Broadband Network Coverage
 Wireline based Broadband connectivity has always been preferred by residential
and Business customers. While current wireline Broadband Subscriber is pegged
at 16 million and however not declining, this gives unique opportunity window to
telecom Operator to expand their FTTH network and provide Fiber based high
data rate Broadband connectivity which cannot be substituted by any Wireless
based Broadband Access technology.
 Data revenue is growing at rate 30-40% and has become almost 25-30% of
operator’s total revenue with declining voice revenue. Recent lowering of 3G data
tariff has led to significant increase in 3G subscriptions. Operators have now
strong conviction on Data based revenue model and have been putting strategy
for short term & long term planning for rapid 3G/4G network expansion and better
network coverage with multi-fold investment outlay.
 Operator have started adopting Heterogeneous network architecture which meant
deploying low cost small Cell nodes under licensed spectrum band to provide
better coverage and data rate to targeted subscribers. Small cell network work in
cellular architecture with outdoor coverage up to 200m. Having same channel
bandwidth but with smaller coverage, it can cover dense area with more number
of users and with higher data rate. Targeted area could be Business Hubs, Market
Places, Industrial Area, Residential areas. However Operators need to make
adoption of small cell architecture as part of planning process rather than making
it means to provide better coverage on consumer complaint basis.
 Starting 2013, Operator started deploying Wi-Fi Hotspots at Public places like
Malls, Coffee House, Airport and Cinema Halls etc to provide better data rate, low
cost internet connectivity and also boost data usage. However Operators need to
take this low cost service more proactively to outdoor public places like College
Campus, Railway, Bus Depos, Tourist Places etc. Wi-Fi based network coverage
allows Operator to launch low cost Internet plan and thus increase in Broadband
subscriber base. Telecom Operators are also allowing 3G/4G users to seamlessly

7. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
switch to available outdoor Wi-Fi network, thus allowing user to access Internet
at lower tariff wherever available.
Improving Service Quality
 Operator have started putting Network & IT system capabilities to real-time
monitor KPI/KQI of Network infrastructure and Service rendered. This will in
addressing issues like inadequate coverage, Connectivity Issues, Service
Experience proactively, rather than reactively based on consumer complaints.
 Operator have also started putting Video Optimization system to decongest Radio
Access Network System and accommodate more user without compromising on
User experience. This system works on dynamic adaptive transcoding of
streaming video content based on RAN congestion and data rate.
 Operator need to adopt latest Wireless Broadband technologies which enables
highest bandwidth per user. For ex. Small Cell focused deployment approach,
adoption of Bandwidth aggregation LTE technology.
 Release of more Radio Spectrum and deployment of more number of Base stations
will increase availability of higher bandwidth per user in a given coverage area.
Affordable Smart Devices for Urban and Rural Consumers
A number of Indian Entrepreneurs have helped lowering urban 3G/Wi-Fi Smart
mobile device cost to Rs5000 by local manufacturing and assembly. Brands like
Micromax, Lava, Intex, Karbonn are leading this race. More than 40% of Smart
Phones were shipped by Indian Manufacturers. Micromax has brought good of
smartphones models in the price range of Rs2500 to Rs5000/-. Reliance Jio has
brought high end 4G/LTE phone in market at price range of 15000/-. To promote
Rural Broadband Service, further lower cost Smart Phone Mobile device enabling 2G
and Wi-Fi connectivity would be needed @2000/- and tablet @Rs3000 which would be
customized for Internet, E-Services, E-Governance Service, E-Commerce and
Advertising.

8. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
Lowering cost of delivering Internet Bandwidth at POI
 Cost of delivering Internet bandwidth by NLD operators at NOFN district POI
has two components a) cost of international Internet Bandwidth at Gateway and
b) Cost of carrying bandwidth from gateway to local POI by NLD operator through
their own countrywide data transport network. TCL, Bharti, RCOM are three
International Internet Bandwidth provider in India while BSNL, Bharti Airtel,
RCOM, TCL are primary NLD operators which can carry International Internet
Bandwidth from gateway and deliver at NOFN District POI.
 While International Internet Bandwidth provider sell bandwidth at Gateway at
unit price of approx. Rs 20Lakh per Gbps, NLD operators in turn sell Internet
Bandwidth at NOFN district point of interconnect at very high rate of Rs 3 Crore
per 1Gbps. Bringing down this selling price will help TSP/ISP in providing
affordable rural broadband service.
 Once National Rural Fiber Network is rolled out country wide, Rural Internet
bandwidth demand from NOFN network would be 100-200Gbps in first year and
will be in range of 4-5Tbps in 10th year. To deliver such huge bandwidth, NLD
operators will have to expand national transport network.

9. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
Digital India mission to Connect Rural India & far flung corners
Our Prime Minister has launched Digital India mission which aim to provide
Digital Connectivity, E-Governance Services and Digital Empowerment to each and
every rural citizen up to remotest corner of India.
Digital Infrastructure as Utility to every citizen aims to bring high Speed Broadband
Connectivity infrastructure at every Gram Panchayat and at every Gram along and
then to provide affordable Broadband Service and with availability of affordable
Mobile devices.

10. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
Rural Digital Connectivity will enable delivery of Broadband service, delivery of
various Internet enabled services like Government to People, People to people,
Business to People and Business to Business Services. For ex. Tele-Education (School,
Farming, Social/Cultural), Tele-Health, E-Learning, E-Skill, E-Governance, E-
Commerce, E-Banking etc. Broadband connectivity to rural India has direct impact
on addressing many of hardship faced by rural citizen and also change lifestyle. It
will also stimulate rural economy and will contribute towards increased trade and
local employment avenues.
Current State of Rural Broadband Network
 Not long ago, Telecom Operators had almost nil telecom infrastructure in Rural
India (at Blocks and GPs) to provide telecom services (Voice & Internet)
 To address the situation of broadening Urban and Rural digital divide every
passing year, Government of India created Universal Service Obligation Fund
(USOF) in year 2002 with vision to create rural telecom infrastructure. All telecom
operators contribute 5% of adjusted gross revenue as Universal Service Levy
(USL) to USOF.
 Broadband Internet is technology of 21st century but in last 15 years there has
been little effort by Indian Telecom Operator so far in providing affordable Rural
Broadband service, primarily because of fact that telecom operators do not see
business viability viz-a-viz higher CAPEX & OPEX requirement for deploying
Broadband Access network.
 Since Telecom operator already contribute significant share of their revenue to
USOF for rural infrastructure development, they see no obligation to put
additional investment as corporate social responsibility.
 Rural Internet infrastructure development efforts are plagued by following major
issues
o Unavailability of reliable & scalable data transport network from District
to Block and further Block to GP.
o Unavailability of rural housing infrastructure to host telecom equipments
o Unavailability of reliable power infrastructure
o Unavailability of low-cost and low-power wireless access technology to
provide wireless broadband service in 2.5lakh Gram panchayats and in
villages which are scattered across vast geography and terrains of India.

11. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
What it means to build Rural Broadband infrastructure
Building rural broadband infrastructure is mammoth project which means creating
countrywide broadband infrastructure across 641 districts, 6600 Blocks, 2.5 Lakh
Gram Panchayats. This infrastructure requirement can be split in two parts
 Long term Approach to build Optic Fiber based Transport Network: Building
reliable & scalable rural fiber based transport network (between District to Block
and Block to GP) would require investment in tune of 5 billion USD. This is not
possible for one telecom operator to do in short span of time i.e. within 2-3 years
and with its own financial resources in absence of business viability. While
building such network is absolute must for development of rural India (primarily
for information dissemination, rural commerce development and quality of life
improvement), it is also important to understand that such project require billion$
of investment to build reliable, secure, robust and scalable quality network.
Therefore it is financial prudence as well as operator’s necessity that there shall
be one such national infrastructure which shall be shared by all type of Users
including TSP/ISP/MSO/LCO. This will avoid duplicate investment on partial
network infrastructure building by individual operators as well as will enable
better utilization of network. Worldwide such network has been built by National
Government as National Broadband infrastructure project under long term
project vision i.e. 5-6 years. Once deployed, this national project will significantly
reduce operator’s investment to put last mile Rural Wireless Broadband Access
network and to provide broadband & enterprise services.
 Low cost & low power Rural Wireless and Wireline Broadband Access network
needs be built by TSP/ISP so as provide Broadband connectivity at several
targeted locations of 2.5lakh Gram panchayats and of villages where people either
live or come together for some purpose. Such wireless broadband service can be
provided by deploying 802.11n based Outdoor Wi-Fi network using mesh topology.
Overhead Fiber based GPON network can also be deployed at Gram Panchayat to
extend Broadband connectivity to Government Users, Enterprise Users and retail
users who can afford cost of this service and TSP/ISP see business viability of
same.
 Short-term/Interim Approach to Connect GP: Keeping rural India on wait for basic
internet connectivity, E-Governance Service and various other E-services, just for
our desire of rolling out very high Capex intensive and longer project timeline fiber
network, may not be good strategy. Even if such network is made available, it will
not immediately lead to effective utilization of network. People in rural India has
to first feel, learn benefits of Internet and start consuming Internet driven E-
services. It would be prudent strategy to adopt parallel deployment of short term
low cost Wireless backhaul connectivity solution which will enable internet
connectivity to remaining GPs in 1-2years timeline and can meet next 3-5 years
internet bandwidth requirement. Such network will enable seeding of rural
commerce activities.

12. Disclaimer:
* Author has expressed his Opinion & comments. Some of data have been referred from public domain.
 Rural Access Network: Government should roll-out Low cost & Solar Powered
Wireless Wi-Fi Outdoor Access points so as provide internet connectivity at
several targeted locations of 2.5lakh Gram panchayats and of villages where
people either live or come together for some purpose. Government should deploy
on the average 3 to 5 Wi-Fi Outdoor Access Points at each of 2.5Lakh Gram
Panchayats.
Conclusion
Countrywide launch of 4G/LTE Network by Reliance Jio will make wireless
broadband tariff more affordable to common people which will further boost average
data volume per subscriber. Other incumbent Operators (Airtel, Vodafone, Idea) are
also ramping up deployment of 3G/4G network. India will achieve Broadband
subscriber base of 220million by year 2016 and 600million by year 2020.
Further Government’s speediness on implementation of Rural digital Connectivity
project will provide next thrust of Broadband growth to achieve 1Billion Broadband
Subscriber base. Adoption of Short term wireless backhaul connectivity solution will
also be key to extend internet based E-services to rural population within months.
Author: Kumar Ranjan