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The Future of Technology
January 2008
Melanie Swan
MS Futures Group
melanieswan.com
The Future of Technology
2
Summary
 Growth paradigms are not just linear and
exponential, most importantly they are
disco...
The Future of Technology
3
Paradigms of growth and change
 Linear
 Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
 Exponent...
The Future of Technology
4
 The future depends on which coming revolution
occurs first
What will be the next Internet?
Ar...
The Future of Technology
5
Evolution of computation
Future of computing
 New materials
 3d circuits
 Quantum computing
...
The Future of Technology
6
Extensibility of Moore’s Law
Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
Trans...
The Future of Technology
7
Current semiconductor advancements
Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_in...
The Future of Technology
8
ITRS semiconductor roadmap leads the way
Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/P...
The Future of Technology
9
Software remains challenging
 Abstract, difficult to measure
 Doubling each 6-10 years
 Wirt...
The Future of Technology
10
Arms race for the future of intelligence
Machine Human
 Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trill...
The Future of Technology
11
Artificial intelligence: current status
 Approaches
 Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary alg...
The Future of Technology
12
Molecular nanotechnology
 Definition
 3D atomically precise placement
 Scale
 Human hair: ...
The Future of Technology
13
Fabbing
 Community fabs
 MIT Fab Labs
 Make, TechShop
 Personal 3d printing
 Fab@Home, Re...
The Future of Technology
14
Biotechnology
 Biology: information science
 Genomics
 DNA Sequencing
 DNA Synthesizing
 ...
The Future of Technology
15
Anti-aging and radical life extension
 Aging is a pathology
 Immortality is not hubristic an...
The Future of Technology
16
Metaverse technologies
 Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation
and 3D dat...
The Future of Technology
17
Affordable space launch
 Government
 Regular missions
 New participants
 Spaceport develop...
The Future of Technology
18
 The future depends on which coming revolution
occurs first
What will be the next Internet?
A...
The Future of Technology
19
Summary
 Growth paradigms are not just linear and
exponential, most importantly they are
disc...
Thank you
Melanie Swan
MS Futures Group
melanieswan.com
Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations
Provided under an ...
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Future of Technology - Jan 2008 update

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What will be the next Internet? 11 revolutionary technologies are shaping the future: molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology and personalized medicine, synthetic biology, life extension and anti-aging therapies, robotics, artificial intelligence, intelligence augmentation, virtual reality, fabbing, quantum computing and affordable space launch.
This is a January 2008 update to the similar October 2007 presentation.

Publié dans : Technologie, Business
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Future of Technology - Jan 2008 update

  1. 1. The Future of Technology January 2008 Melanie Swan MS Futures Group melanieswan.com
  2. 2. The Future of Technology 2 Summary  Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous  The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change  Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges  Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet Image: Fausto de Martini
  3. 3. The Future of Technology 3 Paradigms of growth and change  Linear  Economic, demographic, life span phenomena  Exponential  Technology: processors, memory, storage, communications, Facebook applications  Discontinuous  Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons, satellites, computers, Internet, globalization  Impossible to predict • Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability • Cascading technology advances from adjacent areas Exponential Discontinuous Linear
  4. 4. The Future of Technology 4  The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first What will be the next Internet? Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology
  5. 5. The Future of Technology 5 Evolution of computation Future of computing  New materials  3d circuits  Quantum computing  Molecular electronics  Optical computing  DNA computing Electro- mechanical Relay Vacuum tube Transistor Integrated circuit ? Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
  6. 6. The Future of Technology 6 Extensibility of Moore’s Law Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/ Transistors per microprocessor Penryn 45 nm, 410-800m transistors Core 2 65 nm, 291m transistors
  7. 7. The Future of Technology 7 Current semiconductor advancements Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html Standard Silicon Transistor High-k + Metal Gate Transistor Historical semiconductors 65nm+ Intel Penryn 45nm chip, shipping fall 2007 Metal Gate High-k Insulator Silicon substrate DrainDrain SourceSource Silicon substrate SiO2 Insulator
  8. 8. The Future of Technology 8 ITRS semiconductor roadmap leads the way Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf 2009  32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm
  9. 9. The Future of Technology 9 Software remains challenging  Abstract, difficult to measure  Doubling each 6-10 years  Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster”  Failure of large projects (FAA, CIA)  19 m programmers worldwide in 20101  Possible improvements  Open source vs. proprietary systems  Interoperability testing  Standards, reusable modules  Web 2.0 software for the enterprise  Software to write software 1 Source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P8481 Lady Ada Lovelace
  10. 10. The Future of Technology 10 Arms race for the future of intelligence Machine Human  Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trillion IPS) and 74 TB memory1  Unlimited operational/build knowledge  Quick upgrade cycles: performance capability doubling every 18 months  Linear, Von Neumann architecture  Understands rigid language  Special purpose problem solving (Deep Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)  Metal chassis, easy to backup  An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and 1,000 TB memory2  Limited operational/build knowledge  Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year evolutionary adaptations  Massively parallel architecture  Understands flexible, fuzzy language  General purpose problem solving, works fine in new situations  Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible 1 Source: Fastest Supercomputer, November 2007, http://www.top500.org/system/8968 2 Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
  11. 11. The Future of Technology 11 Artificial intelligence: current status  Approaches  Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary algorithms, learning algorithms, mechanistic, hybrid  Current initiatives  Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate  Strong AI: startups  Nearer-term applications  Auditory, visual, transportation  Format  Robotic  Distributed  Virtual  Non-corporeal DGC: Boss, 2007
  12. 12. The Future of Technology 12 Molecular nanotechnology  Definition  3D atomically precise placement  Scale  Human hair: 80,000 nm  Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm  Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm  Atom 0.1 nm  Tools  Microscopy  Mills, motors Image sources: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com, http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org
  13. 13. The Future of Technology 13 Fabbing  Community fabs  MIT Fab Labs  Make, TechShop  Personal 3d printing  Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil  Personal manufacturing  Ponoko  Fabjectory Cornell Fab@Home RepRap Evil LabsFabjectory
  14. 14. The Future of Technology 14 Biotechnology  Biology: information science  Genomics  DNA Sequencing  DNA Synthesizing  Variation: SNPs  Proteomics, other “-omics” Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314, http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf DNA SynthesizerVariation: SNP
  15. 15. The Future of Technology 15 Anti-aging and radical life extension  Aging is a pathology  Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural  Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered Negligible Senescence (SENS)  Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations  Intracellular and extracellular junk  Cell loss and senescence  Extracellular crosslinks  Solutions and escape velocity  Mutation anti-suppressors  Bioremediation  Cell strengthening  Real age estimation tests 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e 83 77 69 50 39 Research to repair and reverse the damage of aging The Methuselah Foundation Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html http://www.realage.com http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html
  16. 16. The Future of Technology 16 Metaverse technologies  Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation and 3D data display  Detailed reality capture  Augmented reality  Blended reality  Alternate reality  Virtual worlds  Virtual reality 2.0 Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig
  17. 17. The Future of Technology 17 Affordable space launch  Government  Regular missions  New participants  Spaceport development  Commercial  Rocket launch  Space elevator  Prizes  NASA Centennial Challenges  X Prize Foundation China’s Chang’e-1 Space Elevator and Climber Competition SpaceX Spaceport America, NM Google Lunar X Prize Space-based Solar Power Virgin Galactic
  18. 18. The Future of Technology 18  The future depends on which coming revolution occurs first What will be the next Internet? Artificial Intelligence Molecular Nanotechnology Anti-aging Therapies Metaverse Technologies Quantum Computing Robotics Intelligence Augmentation Personalized Medicine Affordable Space Launch Fabbing Synthetic Biology
  19. 19. The Future of Technology 19 Summary  Growth paradigms are not just linear and exponential, most importantly they are discontinuous  The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change  Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software faces challenges  Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
  20. 20. Thank you Melanie Swan MS Futures Group melanieswan.com Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/

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