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SKPETRO
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Financial Year 2016 (31 Jan 2016)
22 April 2016
L. C. Chong (http://lcchong.wordpress.com and https://goo.gl/jjkq4P)
DISCLAIMER
I am NOT an investment advisor nor a financial advisor, and no information provided
here is to be interpreted as a suggestion to buy or sell securities.
You and I may have different opinion, but I respect your opinion.
All figures in MYR and in '000s, except per share data
2
DECLARATION OF INTEREST
• At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.
SCOPE
• Figures and ratios are based on the figures reported in Annual Report or the latest
Q4 Quarterly Report (QR)
• Unless there is a need, this analysis will not include financial figures reported in Q1,
Q2 and Q3
• I will provide QR result highlights in my blog
• Valuation is not covered in this analysis
• I will provide valuation in my blog.
CHANGES
• 22 Dec 2015 – First write up of SKPETRO in PowerPoint format
• 12 Apr 2016 – Update analysis with FY16Q4 figures.
BUSINESS PROFILE
BUSINESS PROFILE
• One of the world's largest integrated oil and gas services and solutions providers
• Principal business include providing end-to-end solutions and services to the
upstream petroleum industry
• In Feb 2014, SKPETRO acquired the Malaysian operations of Newfield Exploration,
and became an upstream operator
• Full exploration, development and production capabilities as well as participating
interests in several production-sharing contracts and an alliance arrangement.
SKPETRO – Fundamental Analysis FY16
BUSINESS PROFILE (CONT.)
Offshore Construction and Subsea Services
•installation of offshore platforms, marine pipelines and subsea services
Fabrication, Hook-Up and Commissioning
•Engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning services
Drilling and Energy Services
•Provisions of drilling rigs and services;
•Oilfield development and production, leasing of floating, production, storage and offloading; and
•Repairs and refurbishment of industrial gas turbines, supply, installation, commissioning and maintenance of point-of-sale systems for petrol stations and asset
management services for offshore installations.
BUSINESS PROFILE (CONT.)
Source: TA Securities, 17 Dec 2015
OWNERSHIP SUMMARY
PUBLIC AND OTHER
41%
INSTITUTIONS
31%
CORPORATIONS (PRIVATE)
27%
INDIVIDUALS/INSIDERS
1%
Position Date: 1 Apr 2016
TOP 5 SHAREHOLDERS
Position Date: 1 Apr 2016
Holder Common Stock Held As At Date
% of Total Shares
Outstanding
SAPURA HOLDINGS SDN. BHD. 1,007,544,718 27-Jul-2015 16.9%
EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND OF MALAYSIA 829,792,600 1-Apr-2016 13.9%
KHASERA BARU SDN. BHD 610,000,313 31-Jul-2015 10.2%
PERMODALAN NASIONAL BERHAD 595,355,305 29-Jul-2015 10.0%
THE VANGUARD GROUP, INC. 111,450,946 29-Feb-2016 1.9%
OWNERSHIP ANALYSIS
• The group’s largest shareholder is Sapura Holdings Sdn. Bhd., with a 17% stake in
the group
• Following large shareholder is EPF, with a stake of 14%
• Institutional funds owned 31% of SKPETRO.
ECONOMIC MOATS
ECONOMIC MOATS
• Cost Advantage (Narrow)
• EBIT margin was volatile, ranged from 15.3% to 23% in the past four years
• Switching Costs (Wide)
• Contracts in O&G sector usually are for long term. Thus, it is unlikely upstream
companies simply switch contractors or suppliers
• Network Effect (Narrow)
• Increasing O&G projects will increase revenue of SKPETRO
• Poor oil prices will make upstream companies to cut down their E&P activities
• Intangible Assets (Wide)
• Technical knowledge – well-entrenched niche put SKPETRO in a strong position to
win contracts domestically and internationally
• Strong link with local E&P companies
• Efficient Scale (Wide)
• Oligopoly market as controlled by Petronas and Malaysia government
ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.)
23.6%
23.0%
13.2%
10.5%
7.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
ROIC
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
NOPAT
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
Avg. Invested Capital
ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.)
• ROIC of SKPETRO decreased from 23.6% (FY12) to 7.7% (FY16)
• Invested capital increased from 1,786 million (FY12) to 16,135 million (FY16) – 55% CAGR
• NOPAT increased from 421.5 million (FY12) to 1,243.3 million (FY16) – 24% CAGR
• Acceleration of invested capital was higher than NOPAT.
ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.)
7.2%
12.4%
8.1%
1.8%
13.4%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
CROIC
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
FCFF
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
Avg. Capex
ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.)
• CROIC of SKPETRO decreased from 7.2% (FY12) to 1.8% (FY15), but sharply
increased to 13.4%
• Invested capital increased from 1,786 million (FY12) to 16,135 million (FY16) – 55% CAGR
• Reason of drastic increased of FCFF is yet 100% know
• Net Capex decreased from 1,799 million (FY15) to 424 million (FY16)
• Its cash flow statement didn’t show all adjustment. Thus, I have to wait for the Annual Report.
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
SCALE
658,209
1,285,837
2,272,494
3,342,194
3,088,152
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
EBITDA
SCALE (CONT.)
4,219,765
15,196,691
26,614,491
34,562,784
36,491,998
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
Total Assets
SCALE (CONT.)
• EBITDA increased from 658.2 million (FY12) to 3,088.1 million (FY16)
• Total Assets increased from 4,220 million (FY10) to 34,563 million (FY16)
• Larger scale can be an indicator for a company’s ability to withstand industry cycles
and competitive forces
• Strong ability to obtain financing to undertake major capital projects.
PROFITABILITY
22.0%
14.8%
19.5%
20.6%
16.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
EBIT Margin %
PROFITABILITY (CONT.)
• EBIT captures the impact of depreciation on the fixed asset base and the need to
invest in a company’s equipment
• EBIT margin of SKPETRO maintained above 14% level (FY12: 22%; FY15: 16.3%)
• EBIT margin was 19.3% in FY15, which can rated as Ba.
PROFITABILITY (CONT.)
13.3%
6.7%
6.1% 5.9%
4.5%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
EBIT/Assets
PROFITABILITY (CONT.)
• To measure capital efficiency and return on investment, the ratio of EBIT to total
assets is used
• A higher efficiency ratio indicates an improved ability to maintain investment levels in an
oilfield services company’s fleet and equipment which often is an important
differentiating factor for customers
• EBIT to total assets was 4.5% in FY16 (ranged from 4.5% to 6.7%), which can rated as
Ba.
PROFITABILITY (CONT.)
1,665,012
5,697,101 5,665,817
5,050,378
5,646,115
891,390
1,215,313
2,712,959
4,892,641
4,555,389
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
Revenue by Operating Segment
Engineering and Construction Drilling and Energy Services
LEVERAGE & COVERAGE
2.14 x
4.62 x
5.44 x
5.07 x
5.94 x
0.00 x
1.00 x
2.00 x
3.00 x
4.00 x
5.00 x
6.00 x
7.00 x
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
Debt / EBITDA
LEVERAGE & COVERAGE (CONT.)
12.58 x
5.65 x
5.12 x 5.01 x
4.06 x
0.00 x
2.00 x
4.00 x
6.00 x
8.00 x
10.00 x
12.00 x
14.00 x
2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31
EBITDA/Interest
LEVERAGE & COVERAGE (CONT.)
• SKPETRO’s financial leverage and coverage are at the high side
• Debt/EBITDA – 5.94x (FY16) (Caa)
• EBITDA/Interest – 4.06x (FY16) (Ba).
DEBT EXPOSURE AND FOREX
USD
82%
Others
18.16%
2015-01-31
USD
74%
Others
26.42%
2014-01-31
On debt exposure, total debt increased slightly to RM16.9b (FY15) from RM12.4b (FY14). The debt exposure to
USD denominated borrowings was increased to 82% (FY15) from 74% (FY14).
ORDER BOOK
• 23 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO’s current orderbook as at 31 Oct 2015 stood at
approximately RM21b.
2, 10%
13.7, 65%
2.7, 13%
2.6, 12%
Orderbook (RM billion)
Engineering &
Construction –
International
Engineering &
Construction – Local
Drilling services
GROWTH DRIVERS
GROWTH DRIVERS
• 17 Dec 2015 - SAKP has identified 200-300 potential projects worth USD360bn
worldwide that are viable at oil price of USD55/bbl
• 14 Jan 2016 - secured contracts and extensions with a combined value of
approximately US$117 million (RM503 million)
• 11 Feb 2016 - The engineering, construction (international) and drilling contracts are
worth US$382 million or RM1.58 billion. Total contract wins for 2016 are currently
US$499 million.
GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.)
• 7 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO clinched two new projects and secured an extension for an
existing one. These contracts have a collective value of US$72 million (RM300
million)
• 7 Dec 2015 - In India, SKPETRO secured a subcontract for the Vasai East project
from main contractor L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering
• 7 Dec 2015 - SKPETRO also announced a five-month extension to an existing project
in Africa's Ivory Coast.
GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.)
• 4 Nov 2015 - SKPETRO has secured a Field Development Plan (FDP) approval from
Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) for the SK310 B15 gas field development project
in East Malaysia
• 3 Aug 2015 - SapuraKencana to engage in Brunei O&G projects via JV
• 14 Jul 2015 - SAKP secures US$273m ONGC Mumbai High South project
• 24 Jun 2015 - SKPETRO is said to be close to bagging a US$280 million (RM1 billion)
contract from India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd (ONGC) for Phase 3 of the
redevelopment of the Mumbai High South oilfield
• 1 Jun 2015 - SapuraKencana to bag RM1bn ONGC job.
GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.)
• 17 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO has identified 200-300 potential projects worth USD360bn
worldwide that are viable at oil price of USD55/bbl. Management expects these
projects to be rolled out over 2016-20. The most sizeable opportunities are in the
Middle East (USD82bn), followed by Western Europe (USD77bn) and North America
(USD49bn).
GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.)
Source: TA Securities, 17 Dec 2015
GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.)
• 11 May 2015 – SKPETRO bags six contracts worth up to US$269m overseas in Gulf
of Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam and India
• 25 Mar 2015 – Asset expansion in Vietnam. SKPETRO is expected to complete its
Vietnam’s business acquisition by FY16 onwards
• 6 Dec 2014 - SapuraKencana awarded awarded eight contracts collectively worth
RM1.58 billion (US$459 million)
• 20 Nov 2014 - SKPETRO is buying state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd's entire
interest in 3 blocks offshore southern Vietnam for $400 million
• 20 Nov 2014 - SKPETRO, along with its consortium partners, was awarded two
production sharing contracts (PSCs) to develop two oil and gas (O&G) blocks –
Blocks SB331 and SB332 onshore Sabah.
ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES
ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES
• Execution risk
• Escalation of vessel
• Fabrication costs
• Increased competition for growth markets
• Complexities of running a larger organization.
• Sharp and prolonged decline in global crude oil prices
• An unexpected slowdown in the global oil & gas activities
• Petronas’ capex cut
• Very highly leveraged
• Lower-than-expected new contract wins due to stiff competition, and operational
hiccups.
ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.)
• 16 Jun 2015 - SKPETRO may be seeing its fabrication yard utilisation rate drop up to
30% next year, according to its president and group chief executive officer Tan Sri
Shahril Shamsuddin
• Much of its borrowings are denominated in USD. From the most recent quarter
results, the amount of USD borrowings consist of around 78.8% where most of
borrowings are unsecured long term borrowings.
ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.)
• 19 Dec 2014 - Petrobras was curbing its refining and exploration spending in
response to the collapse in crude oil prices and difficulties in tapping debt markets
in a corruption probe
• 17 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO is largely shielded in the worst case scenario where Petrobras
defaults. This is mainly because SKPETRO did not provide a corporate guarantee for the
vessel loans (margin: 80%)
• As such, default risk would mainly impact the consortium of banks financing the PLSVs
• SKPETRO’s exposure is limited to its 50% equity investment in Sapura Navegacao, which
we estimate to be USD176mn (assuming JV has 20% equity in 6 PLSVs)
• Any cost overruns during construction of the PLSVs are also borne by the JV.
ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.)
• 17 Dec 2015 – Due to oil price volatility, auditors will now conduct quarterly reviews
(previous: annual) on oil price assumption and reserves for their O&G portfolio
• Given the oil price downtrend, we see enhanced risk of further write downs on
SKPETRO’s assets
• To recap, SAKP underwent two rounds of impairments (net) (2QFY15: RM345mn,
4QFY14: RM55mn) for its O&G assets
• It remains status quo that comprehensive impairment tests (including change in
assumptions for production cost, reserves, and discount rate) will be conducted at the
end of each financial year.
ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.)
• 17 Dec 2015 – O&G tenders have dropped significantly in this weak oil price
environment. Therefore, to replenish orderbook, SKPETRO is approaching oil
companies directly to propose lower-cost services and solutions
• This results in a win-win situation where SKPETRO clinches new orders, and clients derive
decent project returns
• However, despite bidding at lower rates, SKPETRO’s margins have remained resilient,
largely due to a leaner cost structure
• Nevertheless, we believe margin risks still abound as volume of orders slows down,
which would result in reduced economies of scale.
GOING FORWARD
COST OPTIMIZATION
• Requested discounts from suppliers and service providers
• Lowered manpower costs (e.g. implemented Mutual Separation Scheme, pay cuts
for senior management, downsized Australian operations)
• Internalised assets (e.g. reduced external charters)
• Streamlined operations (e.g. each business unit handles own Human Resource
matters)
• Reduced operating costs (e.g. culled excess supply boats, cut frequency of offshore
trips)
Source: TA Securities, 17 Dec 2015
GOING FORWARD
• 23 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO’s current orderbook as at 31 Oct 2015 stood at
approximately RM21b.
• SKPETRO has taken some measures to optimize its operations and costs
• To replenish orderbook, SKPETRO is approaching oil companies directly to propose
lower-cost services and solutions
• Besides, SKPETRO conduct quarterly reviews (previous: annual) on oil price
assumption and reserves for their O&G portfolio. This shows a good corporate
governance
• I believe SKPETRO will be able to go through turbulence times.

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SKPETRO – Fundamental Analysis FY16

  • 1. SKPETRO FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Financial Year 2016 (31 Jan 2016) 22 April 2016 L. C. Chong (http://lcchong.wordpress.com and https://goo.gl/jjkq4P)
  • 2. DISCLAIMER I am NOT an investment advisor nor a financial advisor, and no information provided here is to be interpreted as a suggestion to buy or sell securities. You and I may have different opinion, but I respect your opinion. All figures in MYR and in '000s, except per share data 2
  • 3. DECLARATION OF INTEREST • At the time of writing, I owned shares of SKPETRO.
  • 4. SCOPE • Figures and ratios are based on the figures reported in Annual Report or the latest Q4 Quarterly Report (QR) • Unless there is a need, this analysis will not include financial figures reported in Q1, Q2 and Q3 • I will provide QR result highlights in my blog • Valuation is not covered in this analysis • I will provide valuation in my blog.
  • 5. CHANGES • 22 Dec 2015 – First write up of SKPETRO in PowerPoint format • 12 Apr 2016 – Update analysis with FY16Q4 figures.
  • 7. BUSINESS PROFILE • One of the world's largest integrated oil and gas services and solutions providers • Principal business include providing end-to-end solutions and services to the upstream petroleum industry • In Feb 2014, SKPETRO acquired the Malaysian operations of Newfield Exploration, and became an upstream operator • Full exploration, development and production capabilities as well as participating interests in several production-sharing contracts and an alliance arrangement.
  • 9. BUSINESS PROFILE (CONT.) Offshore Construction and Subsea Services •installation of offshore platforms, marine pipelines and subsea services Fabrication, Hook-Up and Commissioning •Engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning services Drilling and Energy Services •Provisions of drilling rigs and services; •Oilfield development and production, leasing of floating, production, storage and offloading; and •Repairs and refurbishment of industrial gas turbines, supply, installation, commissioning and maintenance of point-of-sale systems for petrol stations and asset management services for offshore installations.
  • 10. BUSINESS PROFILE (CONT.) Source: TA Securities, 17 Dec 2015
  • 11. OWNERSHIP SUMMARY PUBLIC AND OTHER 41% INSTITUTIONS 31% CORPORATIONS (PRIVATE) 27% INDIVIDUALS/INSIDERS 1% Position Date: 1 Apr 2016
  • 12. TOP 5 SHAREHOLDERS Position Date: 1 Apr 2016 Holder Common Stock Held As At Date % of Total Shares Outstanding SAPURA HOLDINGS SDN. BHD. 1,007,544,718 27-Jul-2015 16.9% EMPLOYEES PROVIDENT FUND OF MALAYSIA 829,792,600 1-Apr-2016 13.9% KHASERA BARU SDN. BHD 610,000,313 31-Jul-2015 10.2% PERMODALAN NASIONAL BERHAD 595,355,305 29-Jul-2015 10.0% THE VANGUARD GROUP, INC. 111,450,946 29-Feb-2016 1.9%
  • 13. OWNERSHIP ANALYSIS • The group’s largest shareholder is Sapura Holdings Sdn. Bhd., with a 17% stake in the group • Following large shareholder is EPF, with a stake of 14% • Institutional funds owned 31% of SKPETRO.
  • 15. ECONOMIC MOATS • Cost Advantage (Narrow) • EBIT margin was volatile, ranged from 15.3% to 23% in the past four years • Switching Costs (Wide) • Contracts in O&G sector usually are for long term. Thus, it is unlikely upstream companies simply switch contractors or suppliers • Network Effect (Narrow) • Increasing O&G projects will increase revenue of SKPETRO • Poor oil prices will make upstream companies to cut down their E&P activities • Intangible Assets (Wide) • Technical knowledge – well-entrenched niche put SKPETRO in a strong position to win contracts domestically and internationally • Strong link with local E&P companies • Efficient Scale (Wide) • Oligopoly market as controlled by Petronas and Malaysia government
  • 16. ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.) 23.6% 23.0% 13.2% 10.5% 7.7% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 ROIC 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 NOPAT 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 Avg. Invested Capital
  • 17. ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.) • ROIC of SKPETRO decreased from 23.6% (FY12) to 7.7% (FY16) • Invested capital increased from 1,786 million (FY12) to 16,135 million (FY16) – 55% CAGR • NOPAT increased from 421.5 million (FY12) to 1,243.3 million (FY16) – 24% CAGR • Acceleration of invested capital was higher than NOPAT.
  • 18. ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.) 7.2% 12.4% 8.1% 1.8% 13.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 CROIC 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 FCFF 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 Avg. Capex
  • 19. ECONOMIC MOATS (CONT.) • CROIC of SKPETRO decreased from 7.2% (FY12) to 1.8% (FY15), but sharply increased to 13.4% • Invested capital increased from 1,786 million (FY12) to 16,135 million (FY16) – 55% CAGR • Reason of drastic increased of FCFF is yet 100% know • Net Capex decreased from 1,799 million (FY15) to 424 million (FY16) • Its cash flow statement didn’t show all adjustment. Thus, I have to wait for the Annual Report.
  • 23. SCALE (CONT.) • EBITDA increased from 658.2 million (FY12) to 3,088.1 million (FY16) • Total Assets increased from 4,220 million (FY10) to 34,563 million (FY16) • Larger scale can be an indicator for a company’s ability to withstand industry cycles and competitive forces • Strong ability to obtain financing to undertake major capital projects.
  • 25. PROFITABILITY (CONT.) • EBIT captures the impact of depreciation on the fixed asset base and the need to invest in a company’s equipment • EBIT margin of SKPETRO maintained above 14% level (FY12: 22%; FY15: 16.3%) • EBIT margin was 19.3% in FY15, which can rated as Ba.
  • 27. PROFITABILITY (CONT.) • To measure capital efficiency and return on investment, the ratio of EBIT to total assets is used • A higher efficiency ratio indicates an improved ability to maintain investment levels in an oilfield services company’s fleet and equipment which often is an important differentiating factor for customers • EBIT to total assets was 4.5% in FY16 (ranged from 4.5% to 6.7%), which can rated as Ba.
  • 28. PROFITABILITY (CONT.) 1,665,012 5,697,101 5,665,817 5,050,378 5,646,115 891,390 1,215,313 2,712,959 4,892,641 4,555,389 0 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 Revenue by Operating Segment Engineering and Construction Drilling and Energy Services
  • 29. LEVERAGE & COVERAGE 2.14 x 4.62 x 5.44 x 5.07 x 5.94 x 0.00 x 1.00 x 2.00 x 3.00 x 4.00 x 5.00 x 6.00 x 7.00 x 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 Debt / EBITDA
  • 30. LEVERAGE & COVERAGE (CONT.) 12.58 x 5.65 x 5.12 x 5.01 x 4.06 x 0.00 x 2.00 x 4.00 x 6.00 x 8.00 x 10.00 x 12.00 x 14.00 x 2012-01-31 2013-01-31 2014-01-31 2015-01-31 2016-01-31 EBITDA/Interest
  • 31. LEVERAGE & COVERAGE (CONT.) • SKPETRO’s financial leverage and coverage are at the high side • Debt/EBITDA – 5.94x (FY16) (Caa) • EBITDA/Interest – 4.06x (FY16) (Ba).
  • 32. DEBT EXPOSURE AND FOREX USD 82% Others 18.16% 2015-01-31 USD 74% Others 26.42% 2014-01-31 On debt exposure, total debt increased slightly to RM16.9b (FY15) from RM12.4b (FY14). The debt exposure to USD denominated borrowings was increased to 82% (FY15) from 74% (FY14).
  • 33. ORDER BOOK • 23 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO’s current orderbook as at 31 Oct 2015 stood at approximately RM21b. 2, 10% 13.7, 65% 2.7, 13% 2.6, 12% Orderbook (RM billion) Engineering & Construction – International Engineering & Construction – Local Drilling services
  • 35. GROWTH DRIVERS • 17 Dec 2015 - SAKP has identified 200-300 potential projects worth USD360bn worldwide that are viable at oil price of USD55/bbl • 14 Jan 2016 - secured contracts and extensions with a combined value of approximately US$117 million (RM503 million) • 11 Feb 2016 - The engineering, construction (international) and drilling contracts are worth US$382 million or RM1.58 billion. Total contract wins for 2016 are currently US$499 million.
  • 36. GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.) • 7 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO clinched two new projects and secured an extension for an existing one. These contracts have a collective value of US$72 million (RM300 million) • 7 Dec 2015 - In India, SKPETRO secured a subcontract for the Vasai East project from main contractor L&T Hydrocarbon Engineering • 7 Dec 2015 - SKPETRO also announced a five-month extension to an existing project in Africa's Ivory Coast.
  • 37. GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.) • 4 Nov 2015 - SKPETRO has secured a Field Development Plan (FDP) approval from Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) for the SK310 B15 gas field development project in East Malaysia • 3 Aug 2015 - SapuraKencana to engage in Brunei O&G projects via JV • 14 Jul 2015 - SAKP secures US$273m ONGC Mumbai High South project • 24 Jun 2015 - SKPETRO is said to be close to bagging a US$280 million (RM1 billion) contract from India’s Oil and Natural Gas Corp Ltd (ONGC) for Phase 3 of the redevelopment of the Mumbai High South oilfield • 1 Jun 2015 - SapuraKencana to bag RM1bn ONGC job.
  • 38. GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.) • 17 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO has identified 200-300 potential projects worth USD360bn worldwide that are viable at oil price of USD55/bbl. Management expects these projects to be rolled out over 2016-20. The most sizeable opportunities are in the Middle East (USD82bn), followed by Western Europe (USD77bn) and North America (USD49bn).
  • 39. GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.) Source: TA Securities, 17 Dec 2015
  • 40. GROWTH DRIVERS (CONT.) • 11 May 2015 – SKPETRO bags six contracts worth up to US$269m overseas in Gulf of Mexico, Indonesia, Vietnam and India • 25 Mar 2015 – Asset expansion in Vietnam. SKPETRO is expected to complete its Vietnam’s business acquisition by FY16 onwards • 6 Dec 2014 - SapuraKencana awarded awarded eight contracts collectively worth RM1.58 billion (US$459 million) • 20 Nov 2014 - SKPETRO is buying state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd's entire interest in 3 blocks offshore southern Vietnam for $400 million • 20 Nov 2014 - SKPETRO, along with its consortium partners, was awarded two production sharing contracts (PSCs) to develop two oil and gas (O&G) blocks – Blocks SB331 and SB332 onshore Sabah.
  • 42. ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES • Execution risk • Escalation of vessel • Fabrication costs • Increased competition for growth markets • Complexities of running a larger organization. • Sharp and prolonged decline in global crude oil prices • An unexpected slowdown in the global oil & gas activities • Petronas’ capex cut • Very highly leveraged • Lower-than-expected new contract wins due to stiff competition, and operational hiccups.
  • 43. ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.) • 16 Jun 2015 - SKPETRO may be seeing its fabrication yard utilisation rate drop up to 30% next year, according to its president and group chief executive officer Tan Sri Shahril Shamsuddin • Much of its borrowings are denominated in USD. From the most recent quarter results, the amount of USD borrowings consist of around 78.8% where most of borrowings are unsecured long term borrowings.
  • 44. ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.) • 19 Dec 2014 - Petrobras was curbing its refining and exploration spending in response to the collapse in crude oil prices and difficulties in tapping debt markets in a corruption probe • 17 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO is largely shielded in the worst case scenario where Petrobras defaults. This is mainly because SKPETRO did not provide a corporate guarantee for the vessel loans (margin: 80%) • As such, default risk would mainly impact the consortium of banks financing the PLSVs • SKPETRO’s exposure is limited to its 50% equity investment in Sapura Navegacao, which we estimate to be USD176mn (assuming JV has 20% equity in 6 PLSVs) • Any cost overruns during construction of the PLSVs are also borne by the JV.
  • 45. ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.) • 17 Dec 2015 – Due to oil price volatility, auditors will now conduct quarterly reviews (previous: annual) on oil price assumption and reserves for their O&G portfolio • Given the oil price downtrend, we see enhanced risk of further write downs on SKPETRO’s assets • To recap, SAKP underwent two rounds of impairments (net) (2QFY15: RM345mn, 4QFY14: RM55mn) for its O&G assets • It remains status quo that comprehensive impairment tests (including change in assumptions for production cost, reserves, and discount rate) will be conducted at the end of each financial year.
  • 46. ISSUES/RISKS/CHALLENGES (CONT.) • 17 Dec 2015 – O&G tenders have dropped significantly in this weak oil price environment. Therefore, to replenish orderbook, SKPETRO is approaching oil companies directly to propose lower-cost services and solutions • This results in a win-win situation where SKPETRO clinches new orders, and clients derive decent project returns • However, despite bidding at lower rates, SKPETRO’s margins have remained resilient, largely due to a leaner cost structure • Nevertheless, we believe margin risks still abound as volume of orders slows down, which would result in reduced economies of scale.
  • 48. COST OPTIMIZATION • Requested discounts from suppliers and service providers • Lowered manpower costs (e.g. implemented Mutual Separation Scheme, pay cuts for senior management, downsized Australian operations) • Internalised assets (e.g. reduced external charters) • Streamlined operations (e.g. each business unit handles own Human Resource matters) • Reduced operating costs (e.g. culled excess supply boats, cut frequency of offshore trips) Source: TA Securities, 17 Dec 2015
  • 49. GOING FORWARD • 23 Dec 2015 – SKPETRO’s current orderbook as at 31 Oct 2015 stood at approximately RM21b. • SKPETRO has taken some measures to optimize its operations and costs • To replenish orderbook, SKPETRO is approaching oil companies directly to propose lower-cost services and solutions • Besides, SKPETRO conduct quarterly reviews (previous: annual) on oil price assumption and reserves for their O&G portfolio. This shows a good corporate governance • I believe SKPETRO will be able to go through turbulence times.

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Financial flexibility is crucial for midstream MLPs due to their heavy reliance on the capital markets. Financial leverage and distribution profile can provide an indication as to how well a company might cope through periods of industry weakness, its capacity to incur additional debt and its balance sheet flexibility. Because midstream companies’ generally exhibit high distributions that cause book equity to erode over time, coverage measures are more useful than capitalization measures in assessing their ability to service their debt obligations. We look at three ratios: Interest coverage (EBITDA / Interest) Leverage (Debt / EBITDA) The amount of leverage with which management operates and its dividend payout profile are choices and a direct result of its financial strategy. Midstream issuers actively manage to these ratios. In addition, these ratios are often used by providers of capital in the form of specific covenant tests.