This presentation was intended to convey the status of utility PV power generation, and the impact that affordable and abundant power from the Sun will have on society, the environment, and future opportunities.

1. Utility solar: and the next industrial revolution
Sierra Club: San Carlos/Belmont Group, Sustainable Land Use Committee
David F. Taggart, President/COO Belectric North America
November 12, 2011

2. The next industrial revolution!
• The greatest economic revolutions were born from energy
revolutions
• They mandated infrastructural and communicative
changes, requiring industry and government collaboration
• This new paradigm is based on free fuel available to all,
and distributed power at costs below conventional
• Integrated with the power of the internet, digital energy
management, and clean transportation technologies, this
revolution will profoundly change our world

3. PV generation is versatile

4. PV generation can be privately owned
• 3MW net metered plant is the first private high voltage,
actively controlled power factor plant in North America
• First to utilize UL listed high voltage components/standards
• Largest sports venue PV plant in the world

5. PV generation can be deployed quickly
30MW across 4 sites in 5 months
Start 7/2011, COD 12/2011

6. PV generation is easily scaled
integrate system and component design…
…while breaking the scale relationship
1.25 25 125

7. How did we get here?

8. PV timeline
• 1840-1900: first patents on “solar cells”
• 1905-1922: Einstein publishes
“photoelectric effect” and wins
Nobel prize in 1922
• 1954-1980: Bell labs: photoelectric effect in silicon
– NY Times declares: “limitless energy from the Sun”
– Applications are small and specialized
– 1980 annual production exceeds 1MW
by Arco
• 1990-2008: Government subsidies spur
growth of solar power industry
– Japan and Germany lead the way
– California establishes US leadership
– Massive investment in production
• 2010: utility PV power industry forms, grows rapidly

9. What is behind the sudden growth of
utility PV power?
• Economies of scale
• Energy security concerns spurred investment
• Investment climate has improved from 2008 crisis
• Stable government incentive thru 2016: the ITC
• RPS requirements encourage investments
– 20% renewables by 2013
– 33% renewables by 2020
• Rapid increase in production capacity of polysilicon
coincided with reduction in European incentives and
economic crisis
• Installation of larger plants enables tremendous efficiencies

10. Global PV generation capacity
Radical
• 65% compound growth over 5 years Economy
stalls
price drop:
panels @
resulting in $1.75/W
Thin-film oversupply
achieves of panels
19% Germany’s
efficiency RESA FIT Global
begins: investment
panels @ in solar
$5.40/W exceeds
$100B
German First Poly Si
FIT 1990, Solar production
Japan produces ramps up
70,000 TF
Roofs modules
1994
Investment
Tax Credit
(ITC)
extension

11. US PV generation capacity US Solar
capacity
Federal ITC increases by
• 800% increase since 2006 extension
in face of
69%, exceeds
3GW, costs
economic drop 30%
crisis
CA $100M PV energy Global
Self-Gen: capacity capacity
>30kW doubles quadruples
in 5 years
CA
CA CSI $3B
$112M
Federal incentive:
ERP
Investment <1MW
<30kW
Tax Credit
1998
(ITC)

12. Module price history
• Prices drop by 18% for every
doubling of production volume
1955: $1300/Wp
1965: $375/Wp
Subsidies
1975: $80/Wp
spread
across
Eurozone
Poly Si Economy
production stalls,
ramps up oversupply
65% drop
from 2009
Steady to 2011
improvement
in production
techniques,
efficiency,
and quality
Today: $1.20/Wp

13. Global increase in PV power capacity
• Top PV power generators

14. What do we do now that we are here?

15. Demonstrate “bankability” of utility PV
• 25 year “revenue” lifetime certainty
• Long term module performance warranties
• Plant performance guarantees
• Power purchase agreements
• Sophisticated
monitoring
• Efficiency
across the
board

16. Demonstrate cost performance of utility PV
• Utility PV can use orientation and
tracking to mimic peak power needs
• In a 2011 PUC filing, SCE asks for
approval of 20 PV projects generating
567 GWh of electricity at prices less
than natural gas fired generation
• Projects were between 5 and 20MW
in size, not large central style projects
• To date, 4GW of PV plants contracted
at prices below market price referent
• Utility PV solar is a natural hedge
against rising energy costs

17. Demonstrate cost performance: gas
• Utility PV beats gas peaker

18. Demonstrate cost performance: nuclear
• Utility PV beats new nuclear

19. Demonstrate cost performance: new coal
• Utility PV beats new coal when it comes
online in 6-8 years

20. Support and stabilize the grid
• Distributed generation (DG) with its inherent
ability to provide voltage support and stabilization,
can dramatically reduce need for grid upgrades
while improving costs and performance

21. Where do we go from here?

22. Everyone has equal access to the fuel
• Each day: Earth is bathed in 89 petawatts from the Sun
• Each day: all of humanity uses 15 terrawatts of power, or one
six-thousandth as much
• In 88 minutes: the sun provides as much energy as humanity
consumes in a year
• In 112 hours: the sun provides as much energy as is contained
in all proven reserves of oil, coal, and natural gas on this planet
• If we captured only one tenth of one percent of the solar
energy striking the earth we would have access to 6 times as
much energy as we consume in all forms today, with almost no
greenhouse gas emissions
There are no borders to the sun’s power

23. Democratize energy: free fuel
Renewable values are annual
Finite resources are in total

24. How much of the sun’s energy do we use
to generate electricity today?
• Global electricity production in 2010
PV: 0.008%

25. Make solar electricity available to everyone
• Incorporate “internet” intelligence & agility into Grid
– Enables active participation by consumers, able to see and
manage the energy they use
– Accommodates all generation sources and stability
mechanisms including range of storage options
– Optimizes assets and operational efficiency
– Anticipates and responds to system disturbances
– Resilience against physical and cyber attacks ,and natural
disasters
– Provides power quality required by today’s digital economy
– Provides basis for the next industrial revolution impacting the
environment, society, governments, the world

26. Integration of clean transportation
• What is possible when we integrate
transportation with the smart grid and abundant
electricity from the sun?
– More electric vehicles with truly zero emissions
– Electric vehicles that provide grid storage
– Locally produced hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles using
electrolysis powered by PV

27. The next industrial revolution…
• Many years of development, experimentation in
subsidies, innovation, global production investments,
and intense competition, has brought utility solar
power to the point of supplanting conventional power
• Combining clean power from the sun with the digital
world and clean transportation, provides profound
benefits to societies, governments, and the
environment
• Our passion is to make clean power from the sun
available to everyone, and nurture the integration and
availability of its manifold benefits

29. A Better Electric!
david.taggart@belectric-usa.com
www.belectric.com