Slides for an invited talk on "Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present; Planning for the Future" given by Brian Kelly, Cetis at the SAOIM 2014 conference in Pretoria on 4-5 June 2014. For further information see Slides available at: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-lets-predict-the-future-workshop/

1. 1
Understanding the Past; Being Honest about the Present;
Planning for the Future
A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference
Brian Kelly, Cetis

2. Understanding the Past; Being Honest about
the Present; Planning for the Future
A presentation for the SAOIM 2014 conference
Talk to be given by
Brian Kelly, Cetis at
the SAOIM 2014
conference in
Pretoria, South
Africa on 5 June
2014
Further details: http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoim-2014-planning-for-the-future/
http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/saoi
m-2014-planning-for-the-future/

3. #saoim
About Me
Brian Kelly:
• Innovation Advocate at Cetis (Centre for Educational
Technology, Interoperability and Standards)
• Based at University of Bolton
• Was UK Web Focus, UKOLN from 1996-2013
• Role as a national advisory post to UK universities
• Long-standing Web evangelist (since 1993)
• Prolific blogger (~1,300 posts since Nov 2006)
• Prolific speaker (~425 talks since 1996)
• Author of peer-reviewed papers on various Web topics
• Member of NMC Horizon Report Panel of Experts
3
Contact details: Twitter: @briankelly email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com
Twitter:
#saoim

4. #saoim
About This Talk
How should libraries predict and plan for
technological developments? When it comes to
future planning, how can libraries identify the
‘weak signals’ which may indicate possible
significant changes?
If we look back to the past to our childhood we
may have had over-optimistic views on benefits
which technological developments would provide.
This talk describes a methodology used by Cetis in
their work with Jisc to systematise the prediction
of technological developments.
4

5. #saoim
About This Talk
What we can learn from:
 Expectations from the past
 Limitations of futurologists
The need to:
 Gather evidence
 Solicit broad feedback on interpretations of the
evidence
 Be receptive to the implications of new technologies
and the broader environment
Relevant horizon-scanning report
Conclusions
(What, specifically, does the future hold?) If time! 5
Joe Murphy: “I’ll ask
questions about future of
libraries”
Me: “I’ll describe a
methodology for asking
the questions and
interpretting the findings”

6. #saoim
In the Future
Data will be Big
6Image from Wikimedia Commons. CC BY-SA

7. #saoim
In the Future
Content and services will be open
7
Web is Agreement by Paul Downey.
CC BY

8. #saoim
In the Future
We will own our services and content
8

9. #saoim
In the Future
We will see a growth in use of online services
9

10. #saoim
In the Future
We will see a growth in use of online services
10
FinTech Mentor Huy Nguyen Trieu shares his views on
new opportunities in the FinTech space, April 2014
with increased access on mobile devices

11. #saoim
In the Future
We will see a growth in use of online services
11
NASA Turns to Online Giant Amazon for Cloud Computing
Services for Mars Rover Curiosity, August 2012
and content and services hosted in the Cloud

12. #saoim
In the Future
We will see the importance of librarians and
information professionals acknowledged
12
Causes, ALA

13. #saoim
In the Future
We will see greater investment in libraries
13
£298k investment!
The Library is committed to enhancing
its services and facilities to deliver the
very best library experience for users.
During 2013/14 we are directing
£298k to boost access to core
materials. This sum is in addition to
the millions spent on library resources
across the Colleges.
Enhancing Core Library Collections 2013/14,
University of Exeter, UK

14. #saoim
In the Future
We will travel to work by monorail
14

15. #saoim
In the Future
We will use jetpacks at weekends (or maybe for
document delivery!)
15

16. #saoim
When Did You Stop Believing?
At what point did you become sceptical?
16
Big data Growth in onlineOpen sourceOpen content
Value of librarians Greater investment Monorails Jetpacks

17. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 1
17
You will be inclined to believe in predictions
which reflect personal beliefs and interests or
reflects the organisational or sectoral culture

18. #saoim
Looking at the Futurologists
Gartner report
18

19. #saoim
Gartner
Beware vested
interests which
may be
threatened by
implications of
predictions
19
Gartner May Be Too Scared
To Say It, But the PC Is
Dead, Mark Hachman,
Readwrite Web, 5 April
2013

20. #saoim
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
20PDF

21. #saoim
We commission
reports from
experts in the field
21
… is an information professional who has specialized in the
fields of electronic information provision for over 20 years.
In recent years, he has specialized in metadata for digital
libraries, in which capacity he is a member of the editorial
board for the METS (Metadata Encoding and Transmission
Standard) standard for digital library metadata.

22. #saoim
Looking at Other Sectors
What can we learn from the changes
in the music industry?
• Record labels & music distributors
reluctance to respond to:
 Growth in networked music services
 Users willing to accept limitations of file
formats (MP3)
• New players (Apple, Amazon, Google)
enter the market
22
Were reports commissioned which (mistakenly) provided
evidence of importance of high fidelity formats over MP3?

23. #saoim
Looking at Other Sectors
Are libraries following
the path of HMV or
Apple/Amazon/
Google?
23

24. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 2
24
You can’t always trust futurologists!
(they may bring their sectoral, organisational
or personal prejudices with them)
Caveat:
Their expertise may also be valuable and correct,
but they may miss significant developments

25. #saoim
JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory:
• JISC-funded initiative
• Systematises processes for anticipating and
responding to projected future trends & scenarios
• Provided by JISC Innovation Support Centres at UKOLN
and CETIS
• See <http://blog.observatory.jisc.ac.uk/>
25
But:
• Work closed due to cessation of JISC core funding
• Methodology being shared across community

26. #saoim
JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory processes
26

27. #saoim
Accompanying Paper
JISC Observatory work
described in paper
presented at EMTACL
(Emerging Technologies
in Academic Libraries)
2012 conference
27
Sharing approaches with
Norwegian librarians
See bit.ly/emtacl12-
kelly
Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues
& provide feedback using #saoim

28. #saoim
Accompanying Paper
Follow-up paper
presented at CILIP’s
Umbrella 2013
conference
28
See bit.ly/umbrella-13-
kelly
Sharing approaches with
UK librarians
Feel free to view papers, share with colleagues
& provide feedback using #saoim

29. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 3
29
Information professionals should carry out
evidence-gathering, sense-making and synthesis
activities for their own organisation / sector.

30. #saoim
Invention, Innovation, Improvement
1. Invention: The creation of the idea or
method itself.
2. Innovation: The use of a better and, as a
result, novel idea or method.
3. Improvement: Doing current activities better.
30
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Innovation
Which one is your main area of interest to
support your professional activities?

31. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 4
31
You will need to monitor
(a) innovations to support long-term planning and
(b) improvements in order to enhance
operational practices

32. #saoim
Data
“Manchester City to
open the archive on
player data and
statistics”
Example of:
• How data can
inform practices and
decisions
• Public interest in
open data
• Interest from
commercial sector
32

33. #saoim
Significant Trends: Social Media
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell
Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers
33

34. #saoim
Significant Trends: Social Media
Survey in Aug 2012 of institutional use of Facebook across the 24 Russell
Group universities found >1M ‘Likes’ followers
34

35. #saoim
Behind The Data
Trends in Fb ‘Likes’ for Russell group Unis since Jan 2011
show steady increase
35
Jan 11 Sep 11 May 12 Jul 12
But note increase in Jul 2012 due to
addition of 4 new universities!
But might trends hide a more
complex story:
• Usage & growth dominated by
one significant player.
• More modest usage generally

36. LIES, DAMNED LIES AND GRAPHS
“#Blekko traffic goes through the roof –
for good reason. Try it out!”
Based on blog post entitled “Blekko’s
Traffic Is Up Almost 400 Percent; Here
Are The CEO’s Five Reasons Why”
(includes dissatisfaction with Google)
36
Is Blekko’s Traffic Really Going Through The Roof? Will It Challenge Google?,
UK Web Focus blog, 18 April 2012
Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics!

37. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 5
37
Data can provide insights and indicate trends –
but needs to be interpretted carefully

38. #saoim
JISC Observatory
JISC Observatory processes
38

39. #saoim
Open Sense-making
Seek feedback on:
• Evidence-gathering
methodology e.g.
flaws in ‘paradata’
• Implications of
findings
• Interventions
needed in light of
findings
39
“All bugs are visible
to many eyes”

40. #saoim
Open Sense-making
Importance of open approaches to
interpretation of signals:
• Evidence-gathering methodologies may have flaws
• Incorrect or inappropriate implications may be made
• This may lead to wrong decisions being made
40
Open sense-making approaches may be difficult – your marketing
department may wish a consistent, positive message to be made.

41. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 6
41
Once you’ve gathered evidence you should
encourage open feedback on:
• Validity of evidence-gathering methodologies
• Interpretation of findings
• Implications

42. #saoim
Envisaging Alternative Futures
There is a need to be willing to:
• Envisage implications of technological
developments
42

43. 43
Shush!
We may appropriate technological
developments to support their
activities - but simply emulate
existing ways of working!
Acknowledgements to Patrick
Hochstenbach (@hochstenbach)

44. #saoim
Question for the Audience
Hands up if you have:
• Used a mobile device for work-related purposes
in bed (yes, no, rarely)
44
“20% of the iPad users spent time with their iPad in bed” 2010
Informal survey,
March 2012
“The future is already here -
it's just not very evenly
distributed”
What are the implications
of this new ‘platform’?

45. #saoim
Becoming Receptive to Future-Thinking
How do we become more receptive to new
future scenarios?
• What did you notice for the first time recently?
What will you foresee for the future?
• Typically optimistic or pessimistic views,
reflecting personal traits.
• Possibly no new insights
Now stretch your mind consider:
• The History of the Web Backwards
• Forecasting Trends Backwards
45

46. #saoim
Reversing the Future!
Romancing Your Soul Absolutely Brilliant!
(1 min 44 secs)
46

47. #saoim
Reversing the Future!
The Future of Publishing (2
mins 24 secs)
47
Various innovative
story-telling
techniques listed in a
blog post by Tony
Hirst (ouseful.info)

48. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 7
48
Make use of techniques which may help you to be
receptive to alternative future scenarios
…
and consider use of such approaches when you
tell stories about the future to your users

49. #saoim
Prioritising Work
The Delphic Methodology
Group exercise
Identify 4 key technologies which you feel will be
important :
• During the current year
• In 2-3 years’ time
• In 4-5 years’ time
Vote on other groups’ proposals
You’ve identified areas you feel will be important
49
The Delphi methodology is used by NMC and in the JISC Observatory
Workshop
notes

50. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 8
50
Explore the potential of using the Delphi
methodology to help identification of future
developments of importance to your organisation

51. #saoim
Scenario Planning
You’ve speculated on alternative futures.
You can use them in scenario planning
exercises
51
Scenario planning, also called scenario thinking or scenario
analysis, is a strategic planning method that some organizations
use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an
adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military
intelligence.

52. #saoim
Future Scenarios for Social Networks
Possible scenarios
for social networks
52
Steady as
she goes
Dystopian
futures
Small is
beautiful
Who
cares?
Continued growth
in existing services
FaceAmazoogle own your
content & digital identities
Distributed open source
services; individuals
own content
User backlash against social
networks & stop using them

53. #saoim
Future Scenarios for Social Networks
Possible scenarios
for social networks
53
Steady as
she goes
Dystopian
futures
Small is
beautiful
Who
cares?
The default
scenario
How do we detect evidence
of this scenario?
How do we detect
evidence of this scenario?
How do we detect evidence
of this scenario?

54. #saoim
Implications for Future of Libraries
Possible scenarios for
the future of libraries
54
Everyone’s
a librarian
Fake
certainties
Middle
classes or
deprived?
Privatised
future
We all curate large amount of
digital content. Who needs
professional librarians?
We know we’re right / our
boss is convinced he’s right!
Is focus on support for online
users or those who don’t /
can’t use IT?
We are encouraging users to
use commercial services
See http://hyperlinkedlibrarymoocbriankelly.wordpress.com/category/library-of-the-future/
Joe Murphy
asked you to
consider this
scenario

55. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 9
55
Scenario planning, covering both technological
and societal developments, can be useful in
planning for future developments

56. #saoim
NMC Horizon Reports
NMC Horizon Reports: http://www.nmc.org/
56

57. #saoim
NMC Horizon Report: HE Edition 2013
NMC Horizon report: Higher
Education, 2013
57
PDF

58. #saoim
NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition 2014
NMC Horizon Report: Library Edition
2014
58

59. #saoim
ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
ETAG:
• Exploring short-
and long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educational
institutions
• Contributions
welcomed
59
http://feltag.org.uk/etag/

60. #saoim
ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
ETAG:
• Exploring short-
and long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educational
institutions
• Contributions
welcomed
• Comments by
Twitter hashtags
& email
60
http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/

61. #saoim
ETAG (Education Technology Action Group)
ETAG:
• Exploring short-
and long-term
actions for UK
Government,
educational
institutions
• Contributions
welcomed
• Comments by
Twitter hashtags
& email
61
http://feltag.org.uk/etag/contribute-to-etag/clster-1/

62. #saoim
Top Tips for Predicting the Future
Tip no. 10
62
Read the NMC and related reports (but
discuss their relevance in your own context)
…
and consider implications of Twitter as a tool
for making input into policy discussions

63. #saoim
Warning From The Past
Tim Berners-Lee didn’t
let evidence of the
popularity of Gopher
hinder development of
the Web
63

64. #saoim
Tip no. 11
The Serenity Prayer
64The Serenity Prayer

65. #saoim
Conclusions
1. Beware of predictions which reflect personal
/ sectoral beliefs
2. You can’t always trust futurologists!
3. Carry out your own future planning work
4. Monitor innovations and improvements
5. Data can provide insights & indicate trends
65

66. #saoim
Conclusions
6. Solicit feedback on your evidence and
interpretations
7. Be receptive to innovation & use innovative
approaches in story-telling
8. Explore use of the Delphi methodology
9. Make use of scenario planning
10. Read the NMC reports
11. Remember the Serenity prayer
66Thoughts on the future (if time)

67. #saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (1)
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
67
PDF

68. #saoim
NMC Higher Education Horizon Report 2014
Important Developments in Educational
Technology for Higher Education Time-to-Adoption
Horizon: One Year or Less
>Flipped Classroom
>Learning Analytics
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Two to Three Years
>3D Printing
>Games and Gamification
Time-to-Adoption Horizon: Four to Five Years
>Quantified Self
>Virtual Assistants
68
(Pre-)Amplified events for
professional development
Evidence: collated by NMC
Implications: better trained
staff, who are aware on
implications for teaching &
learning & research
How: managers to provide
support; staff to use
technologies

69. #saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (2)
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
69
Research data –
providing new
opportunities
Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in libraries
Implications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation;
statistics; …
How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …

70. #saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (2)
Personal thoughts and observations for librarians
70
Research data –
providing new
opportunities
Evidence: Personal observations of growth in vacancies in libraries
Implications: Exploit metadata expertise in new areas. Gain expertise visualisation;
statistics; …
How: Monitor developments. Take part in MOOCs, …

71. #saoim
What Does the Future Hold? (3)
The future of libraries:
• Great opportunities provided by growth in the
online environment
• Uncertain due to:
 The competition provided by other players
 The failure of the library community to be willing to
take risks and do thinks differently
71
“We suffer from limited horizons and are obsessed with obsolete
practices and standards of perfection” Lawraine Wood,
Proceedings of the Library Association Industrial Group, 1988!
Evidence: For you to find!
Implications: For you to decide
How: Being pro-active; being open; being honest!

72. #saoim
72
That’s all folks!