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If not now, when?
Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13

Bruce McVean, Principal Consultant, Beyond Green and
       Founder, Movement for Liveable London
           Newcastle Cycling Campaign
                     12/06/12
If not now, when?




                    2
If not now, when?




                    Photo: LCC




                                 3
If not now, when?




                    4
If not now, when?

“I think the Times campaign is an excellent campaign. I strongly support what they
are trying to do. Anyone who has got on a bicycle - particularly in one of our busier
cities - knows you are taking your life into your hands every time you do so, and so we
do need to do more to try and make cycling safer.”
                                                         David Cameron, 22 February 2012




                                                                                      5
We‟ve been here before ...




                                                           Joe Dunckely, waronthemotorist.wordpress.com

“Many people are turning once again to the bicycle ... as a means of transport” -
William Whitlock MP, 1976

“I am told that bike sales now out number car sales” - Lynda Chalker, Transport
Minster, 1985

“Cycling is booming” – Peter Hendy, TfL, 2004

                                                                                                   6
No more cycling revolutions - the liveable city as a shared
                         ambition




                                         Photo: Andrew Cameron, WSP



                                                                      7
Revolution or evolution? Changing a city takes time, but we can‟t
                           afford delays




                                                                8
The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...




                               Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 2007




                                                                                   9
The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...

                             12000




                             10000


                                                                                            Other public transport
Distance travelled (miles)




                              8000                                                          Taxi and minicab
                                                                                            Rail
                                                                                            Bus and coach
                              6000                                                          Other private transport
                                                                                            Car passenger
                                                                                            Car driver

                              4000                                                          Cycle
                                                                                            Walk



                              2000




                                0
                                     Lowest   Second        Third        Fourth   Highest
                                                       Income quintile




                                                                                                                      10
The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...
                                  40




                                  35
KSI rate per 100,000 population




                                  30




                                  25




                                  20




                                  15




                                  10




                                   5




                                   0
                                       0-4   5-7   8-11   12-15   16-19   20-29   30-39   40-49   50-59   60-69   70-79   80+

                                                                           Age band



                                                                                                                                11
The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...

“For most people, the easiest and most acceptable forms of physical activity are
those that can be incorporated into everyday life.”
                                          Liam Donaldson, CMO, At least five a week, 2004




                                                                                        12
The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...




                                   Appleyard and Lintell, 1972




                                                                 13
... the Renault Twizy could be part of the solution (other silver
                      bullets are available) ...




                                                   Photo: The Telegraph




                                                                          14
... but the electric Range Rover is about as far from a solution as
                         you can possibly get!




                                                       Photo: KatsDekker on Flickr




                                                                                15
The (de-privatised) car as the option of last resort




                                                       16
Cycling - an essential component of a more liveable city




                                       Photo: Mikael Colville-Andersen




                                                                         17
Cycling for all ages and abilities – the 8-80 city




                                                     18
Big moves




            19
Start with the junctions




                           Image: LCC




                                 20
Cycle lanes and reallocation of road space
“You can wish people onto bikes, but you won‟t get them onto bikes unless you
provide a safe network.”
                                                                 Jeanette Sadik Kahn




                                                     Photo: inhabitat.com




                                                                                  21
Reclaim the street




                     22
The 20mph city

“There is an equation in the physical sciences that tells us that kinetic energy in a
moving object is equal to one-half of its mass times velocity squared ... A car moving
twice as fast has four times as much kinetic energy. We do not need to have been hit
by a car to understand this. Evolution has hard-wired this knowledge into our
brains.”
                                      Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010

“Simply put, if you get hit by a car driving at 30 mph you are much more likely to get
seriously injured or killed than at 20 mph. In fact a pedestrian struck at 20 mph has a
97% chance of survival whilst at 30 mph the figure is 80%, falling to 50% at 35 mph.”
                                                                     Tom Platt, Living Streets




                                                                                                 23
Change the economics of car ownership and use

“We need to shift the emphasis from households spending thousands of pounds on a
new car every few years and then experiencing a relatively low cost per trip, to a
situation where people pay for each individual trip but don‟t invest the initial lump
sum. By doing this, we will all think much more carefully about the best way to make a
journey ... Some households will find that they no longer need to keep a car for their
personal use and will save money.”
                                                            Professor Roger Mackett, UCL




                                                                                      24
Small can be beautiful




                         25
Filtered permeability




Photo: shamiejerlock on Flickr




                                     26
Storage and parking




       Photo: LCC




                      27
Promotion and training




                         28
Some reflections on London




                             29
A cycling mayor or a mayor for cycling?
                  “…sometimes I just go round Elephant &
                  Castle because it's fine. If you keep your wits
                  about you, Elephant & Castle is perfectly
                  negotiable.”
                                               Boris Johnson, 2011




                                                                 30
31
Share the road




                 Photo: Joe Dunckely




                                       32
Share the road

“We may share the road, but we don‟t share the risk”
                                                            Amy Aeron-Thomas, RoadPeace

“... possession combined with brute force make up ten-tenths of the law”
                                        Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010




                                                                                         33
Share the road




                 Photo: LCC




                              34
A bike is for life not just commuting

“Analysis by TfL shows that usage by cyclists through this junction is predominantly
for travelling to and from work and is therefore concentrated during traditional „rush
hour‟ periods ... Vehicular speeds are predicted to be at their lowest through the
junction during peak time, at an estimated speed of just 12mph, creating a much
improved and safer environment for cyclists to pass through.”
                                                     Transport for London, 25th July 2011




                                                                                        35
Cycle Superhighways – a compromise too far ...




                         Photos: cyclelondoncity.blogspot.co.uk, kenningtonpob.blogspot.co.uk




                                                                                         36
... or a foundation to build on?




                                   Photos: LCC, london24.com




                                                        37
Hackney – what no cycle lanes?!?




                                   Photos: LCC in Hackney, Hackney BC




                                                                 38
Symbolism




            Photo: urban75.org




                                 39
Symbolism

“Showing the person on the $40 bicycle that they‟re as important as the person in
the $40,000 car.”
                                                                         Gil Penalosa




                                                                                    40
Love London, Go What?




                 Photo: LCC




                              41
Cyclists - champions for a more liveable city




                                                42
43
Pedestrians, pedestrians, pedestrians




                                        44
Cyclists will have to accept a slower pace, but not necessarily
                         slower journeys




                                                                  45
„All it needs is political will‟

“No goal, then no direction: no underlying plan, no consensus, then no effective
practical action. If society is paralysed today , it is not for lack of means but for lack
of purpose.”
                                                    Lewis Mumford. The Culture of Cities, 1938

“Road space for cars is a political decision not a technical decision.”
                                                                                 Gil Penalosa




                                                                                            46
„All it needs is political will‟

“Decision-making is hard. Everyone always says: listen to the people. The trouble is
they don't always agree … And, in time, you realise putting the country first doesn't
mean doing the right thing according to conventional wisdom or the prevailing
consensus or the latest snapshot of opinion.”
                                                                Tony Blair, 10 May 2007

“You can‟t be friends with everyone.”
  Bo Asmuskjeldgaard, Mayor for Technical and Environmental Administration, Copenhagen




                                                                                      47
Local authorities and public health – a new opportunity

“The potential benefits of physical activity to health are huge. If a medication existed
which had a similar effect, it would be regarded as a „wonder drug‟ or „miracle cure‟.”

                        Liam Donaldson, CMO, Annual report of the Chief Medical Officer, 2009




                                                                                          48
It‟s the economy stupid – resilience and first mover advantage




                                                                 49
Thrive don‟t survive




                       50
Friendly competition and civic pride




                        Photo: plausibility.net




                                                  51
Follow the money, and make sure it‟s being spent wisely




                                          Photos: crapwalthamforest.blogspot.co.uk




                                                                              52
Acceptable compromises? At least in the short term




                                           Photo: The Times




                                                              53
The liveable city - Shared values and vision




                                               54
Framing the debate about the future of the city




                                                  55
It won‟t be easy, it‟ll take longer than we‟d like, and some crap
                 will get built in the meantime ...




                                                                    56
... but it will be worth it




                              57
beyondgreen.co.uk
     @beyondgreenUK

movementforliveablelondon.com
      @liveablelondon




                                58

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If not now, when? Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13

  • 1. If not now, when? Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13 Bruce McVean, Principal Consultant, Beyond Green and Founder, Movement for Liveable London Newcastle Cycling Campaign 12/06/12
  • 2. If not now, when? 2
  • 3. If not now, when? Photo: LCC 3
  • 4. If not now, when? 4
  • 5. If not now, when? “I think the Times campaign is an excellent campaign. I strongly support what they are trying to do. Anyone who has got on a bicycle - particularly in one of our busier cities - knows you are taking your life into your hands every time you do so, and so we do need to do more to try and make cycling safer.” David Cameron, 22 February 2012 5
  • 6. We‟ve been here before ... Joe Dunckely, waronthemotorist.wordpress.com “Many people are turning once again to the bicycle ... as a means of transport” - William Whitlock MP, 1976 “I am told that bike sales now out number car sales” - Lynda Chalker, Transport Minster, 1985 “Cycling is booming” – Peter Hendy, TfL, 2004 6
  • 7. No more cycling revolutions - the liveable city as a shared ambition Photo: Andrew Cameron, WSP 7
  • 8. Revolution or evolution? Changing a city takes time, but we can‟t afford delays 8
  • 9. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 2007 9
  • 10. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... 12000 10000 Other public transport Distance travelled (miles) 8000 Taxi and minicab Rail Bus and coach 6000 Other private transport Car passenger Car driver 4000 Cycle Walk 2000 0 Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest Income quintile 10
  • 11. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... 40 35 KSI rate per 100,000 population 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0-4 5-7 8-11 12-15 16-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+ Age band 11
  • 12. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... “For most people, the easiest and most acceptable forms of physical activity are those that can be incorporated into everyday life.” Liam Donaldson, CMO, At least five a week, 2004 12
  • 13. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ... Appleyard and Lintell, 1972 13
  • 14. ... the Renault Twizy could be part of the solution (other silver bullets are available) ... Photo: The Telegraph 14
  • 15. ... but the electric Range Rover is about as far from a solution as you can possibly get! Photo: KatsDekker on Flickr 15
  • 16. The (de-privatised) car as the option of last resort 16
  • 17. Cycling - an essential component of a more liveable city Photo: Mikael Colville-Andersen 17
  • 18. Cycling for all ages and abilities – the 8-80 city 18
  • 19. Big moves 19
  • 20. Start with the junctions Image: LCC 20
  • 21. Cycle lanes and reallocation of road space “You can wish people onto bikes, but you won‟t get them onto bikes unless you provide a safe network.” Jeanette Sadik Kahn Photo: inhabitat.com 21
  • 23. The 20mph city “There is an equation in the physical sciences that tells us that kinetic energy in a moving object is equal to one-half of its mass times velocity squared ... A car moving twice as fast has four times as much kinetic energy. We do not need to have been hit by a car to understand this. Evolution has hard-wired this knowledge into our brains.” Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010 “Simply put, if you get hit by a car driving at 30 mph you are much more likely to get seriously injured or killed than at 20 mph. In fact a pedestrian struck at 20 mph has a 97% chance of survival whilst at 30 mph the figure is 80%, falling to 50% at 35 mph.” Tom Platt, Living Streets 23
  • 24. Change the economics of car ownership and use “We need to shift the emphasis from households spending thousands of pounds on a new car every few years and then experiencing a relatively low cost per trip, to a situation where people pay for each individual trip but don‟t invest the initial lump sum. By doing this, we will all think much more carefully about the best way to make a journey ... Some households will find that they no longer need to keep a car for their personal use and will save money.” Professor Roger Mackett, UCL 24
  • 25. Small can be beautiful 25
  • 27. Storage and parking Photo: LCC 27
  • 29. Some reflections on London 29
  • 30. A cycling mayor or a mayor for cycling? “…sometimes I just go round Elephant & Castle because it's fine. If you keep your wits about you, Elephant & Castle is perfectly negotiable.” Boris Johnson, 2011 30
  • 31. 31
  • 32. Share the road Photo: Joe Dunckely 32
  • 33. Share the road “We may share the road, but we don‟t share the risk” Amy Aeron-Thomas, RoadPeace “... possession combined with brute force make up ten-tenths of the law” Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010 33
  • 34. Share the road Photo: LCC 34
  • 35. A bike is for life not just commuting “Analysis by TfL shows that usage by cyclists through this junction is predominantly for travelling to and from work and is therefore concentrated during traditional „rush hour‟ periods ... Vehicular speeds are predicted to be at their lowest through the junction during peak time, at an estimated speed of just 12mph, creating a much improved and safer environment for cyclists to pass through.” Transport for London, 25th July 2011 35
  • 36. Cycle Superhighways – a compromise too far ... Photos: cyclelondoncity.blogspot.co.uk, kenningtonpob.blogspot.co.uk 36
  • 37. ... or a foundation to build on? Photos: LCC, london24.com 37
  • 38. Hackney – what no cycle lanes?!? Photos: LCC in Hackney, Hackney BC 38
  • 39. Symbolism Photo: urban75.org 39
  • 40. Symbolism “Showing the person on the $40 bicycle that they‟re as important as the person in the $40,000 car.” Gil Penalosa 40
  • 41. Love London, Go What? Photo: LCC 41
  • 42. Cyclists - champions for a more liveable city 42
  • 43. 43
  • 45. Cyclists will have to accept a slower pace, but not necessarily slower journeys 45
  • 46. „All it needs is political will‟ “No goal, then no direction: no underlying plan, no consensus, then no effective practical action. If society is paralysed today , it is not for lack of means but for lack of purpose.” Lewis Mumford. The Culture of Cities, 1938 “Road space for cars is a political decision not a technical decision.” Gil Penalosa 46
  • 47. „All it needs is political will‟ “Decision-making is hard. Everyone always says: listen to the people. The trouble is they don't always agree … And, in time, you realise putting the country first doesn't mean doing the right thing according to conventional wisdom or the prevailing consensus or the latest snapshot of opinion.” Tony Blair, 10 May 2007 “You can‟t be friends with everyone.” Bo Asmuskjeldgaard, Mayor for Technical and Environmental Administration, Copenhagen 47
  • 48. Local authorities and public health – a new opportunity “The potential benefits of physical activity to health are huge. If a medication existed which had a similar effect, it would be regarded as a „wonder drug‟ or „miracle cure‟.” Liam Donaldson, CMO, Annual report of the Chief Medical Officer, 2009 48
  • 49. It‟s the economy stupid – resilience and first mover advantage 49
  • 51. Friendly competition and civic pride Photo: plausibility.net 51
  • 52. Follow the money, and make sure it‟s being spent wisely Photos: crapwalthamforest.blogspot.co.uk 52
  • 53. Acceptable compromises? At least in the short term Photo: The Times 53
  • 54. The liveable city - Shared values and vision 54
  • 55. Framing the debate about the future of the city 55
  • 56. It won‟t be easy, it‟ll take longer than we‟d like, and some crap will get built in the meantime ... 56
  • 57. ... but it will be worth it 57
  • 58. beyondgreen.co.uk @beyondgreenUK movementforliveablelondon.com @liveablelondon 58

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Quotesoverlaid on a chart of DfT’s annual cycle mileage estimatesbut is it for real this time?
  2. Everyday mass cycling is a means not an end ... we need a transport revolution, not a cycling revolution.
  3. Can’t afford to spend 40 years getting it right – climate change, peak oil.
  4. Distance travelled by socio-economic class
  5. KSI by age
  6. Flexibility for longer journeys not served by public transport, convenience
  7. Majority of collisionsPhysical and mental barriersDetermine capacity of wider network
  8. Shift from high up front cost and relatively low running costs, to higher operating costs (congestion charge, pay as you drive, etc) and reduced ownership
  9. Brilliant and effective campaignBut what exactly does go Dutch mean in the context of London?Despite best efforts still seen as a cycling campaign
  10. Maintenance programmesPublic realm improvementsCIL and S278