If not now, when? Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13
1. If not now, when?
Prospects for a cycling revolution in 2012/13
Bruce McVean, Principal Consultant, Beyond Green and
Founder, Movement for Liveable London
Newcastle Cycling Campaign
12/06/12
5. If not now, when?
“I think the Times campaign is an excellent campaign. I strongly support what they
are trying to do. Anyone who has got on a bicycle - particularly in one of our busier
cities - knows you are taking your life into your hands every time you do so, and so we
do need to do more to try and make cycling safer.”
David Cameron, 22 February 2012
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6. We‟ve been here before ...
Joe Dunckely, waronthemotorist.wordpress.com
“Many people are turning once again to the bicycle ... as a means of transport” -
William Whitlock MP, 1976
“I am told that bike sales now out number car sales” - Lynda Chalker, Transport
Minster, 1985
“Cycling is booming” – Peter Hendy, TfL, 2004
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7. No more cycling revolutions - the liveable city as a shared
ambition
Photo: Andrew Cameron, WSP
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9. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...
Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution, 2007
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10. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...
12000
10000
Other public transport
Distance travelled (miles)
8000 Taxi and minicab
Rail
Bus and coach
6000 Other private transport
Car passenger
Car driver
4000 Cycle
Walk
2000
0
Lowest Second Third Fourth Highest
Income quintile
10
11. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...
40
35
KSI rate per 100,000 population
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
0-4 5-7 8-11 12-15 16-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70-79 80+
Age band
11
12. The internal combustion engine is not the problem ...
“For most people, the easiest and most acceptable forms of physical activity are
those that can be incorporated into everyday life.”
Liam Donaldson, CMO, At least five a week, 2004
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21. Cycle lanes and reallocation of road space
“You can wish people onto bikes, but you won‟t get them onto bikes unless you
provide a safe network.”
Jeanette Sadik Kahn
Photo: inhabitat.com
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23. The 20mph city
“There is an equation in the physical sciences that tells us that kinetic energy in a
moving object is equal to one-half of its mass times velocity squared ... A car moving
twice as fast has four times as much kinetic energy. We do not need to have been hit
by a car to understand this. Evolution has hard-wired this knowledge into our
brains.”
Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010
“Simply put, if you get hit by a car driving at 30 mph you are much more likely to get
seriously injured or killed than at 20 mph. In fact a pedestrian struck at 20 mph has a
97% chance of survival whilst at 30 mph the figure is 80%, falling to 50% at 35 mph.”
Tom Platt, Living Streets
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24. Change the economics of car ownership and use
“We need to shift the emphasis from households spending thousands of pounds on a
new car every few years and then experiencing a relatively low cost per trip, to a
situation where people pay for each individual trip but don‟t invest the initial lump
sum. By doing this, we will all think much more carefully about the best way to make a
journey ... Some households will find that they no longer need to keep a car for their
personal use and will save money.”
Professor Roger Mackett, UCL
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30. A cycling mayor or a mayor for cycling?
“…sometimes I just go round Elephant &
Castle because it's fine. If you keep your wits
about you, Elephant & Castle is perfectly
negotiable.”
Boris Johnson, 2011
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33. Share the road
“We may share the road, but we don‟t share the risk”
Amy Aeron-Thomas, RoadPeace
“... possession combined with brute force make up ten-tenths of the law”
Ian Roberts and Phil Edwards, The Energy Glut, 2010
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35. A bike is for life not just commuting
“Analysis by TfL shows that usage by cyclists through this junction is predominantly
for travelling to and from work and is therefore concentrated during traditional „rush
hour‟ periods ... Vehicular speeds are predicted to be at their lowest through the
junction during peak time, at an estimated speed of just 12mph, creating a much
improved and safer environment for cyclists to pass through.”
Transport for London, 25th July 2011
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36. Cycle Superhighways – a compromise too far ...
Photos: cyclelondoncity.blogspot.co.uk, kenningtonpob.blogspot.co.uk
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37. ... or a foundation to build on?
Photos: LCC, london24.com
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38. Hackney – what no cycle lanes?!?
Photos: LCC in Hackney, Hackney BC
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45. Cyclists will have to accept a slower pace, but not necessarily
slower journeys
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46. „All it needs is political will‟
“No goal, then no direction: no underlying plan, no consensus, then no effective
practical action. If society is paralysed today , it is not for lack of means but for lack
of purpose.”
Lewis Mumford. The Culture of Cities, 1938
“Road space for cars is a political decision not a technical decision.”
Gil Penalosa
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47. „All it needs is political will‟
“Decision-making is hard. Everyone always says: listen to the people. The trouble is
they don't always agree … And, in time, you realise putting the country first doesn't
mean doing the right thing according to conventional wisdom or the prevailing
consensus or the latest snapshot of opinion.”
Tony Blair, 10 May 2007
“You can‟t be friends with everyone.”
Bo Asmuskjeldgaard, Mayor for Technical and Environmental Administration, Copenhagen
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48. Local authorities and public health – a new opportunity
“The potential benefits of physical activity to health are huge. If a medication existed
which had a similar effect, it would be regarded as a „wonder drug‟ or „miracle cure‟.”
Liam Donaldson, CMO, Annual report of the Chief Medical Officer, 2009
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49. It‟s the economy stupid – resilience and first mover advantage
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Quotesoverlaid on a chart of DfT’s annual cycle mileage estimatesbut is it for real this time?
Everyday mass cycling is a means not an end ... we need a transport revolution, not a cycling revolution.
Can’t afford to spend 40 years getting it right – climate change, peak oil.
Distance travelled by socio-economic class
KSI by age
Flexibility for longer journeys not served by public transport, convenience
Majority of collisionsPhysical and mental barriersDetermine capacity of wider network
Shift from high up front cost and relatively low running costs, to higher operating costs (congestion charge, pay as you drive, etc) and reduced ownership
Brilliant and effective campaignBut what exactly does go Dutch mean in the context of London?Despite best efforts still seen as a cycling campaign
Maintenance programmesPublic realm improvementsCIL and S278