Summary and analysis related to the June 2014 "tape scandal", when Wprost weekly published secretely recorded discussions of key politicians in Poland. The analysis is based on facts known on June 25th 2014 and was prepared after the vote of confidence in the parliament.

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“Tapes scandal” in Poland
June 25th
2014
(part two)
Donald Tusk’s government wins the vote of confidence
On May 25th
, PM Donald Tusk asked the Parliament for the vote of confidence. 237 MPs
(both coalition parties + 4 independent MPs + 1 MP of Janusz Palikot’s party) supported the
government, 203 were against (all present members of Law and Justice, 37 of Janusz
Palikot’s Your Move, all present SLD (the Left) MPs, 11 of Zbigniew Ziobro’s Solidarna Polska
and 10 independent). 20 MPs were absent during the vote (including 10 MPs of Law and
Justice).
Law and Justice will prepare a motion for a constructive vote of no confidence, proposing his
own candidate for “technical” prime minister. To win a vote, PiS would have to get a support of
231 MPs. The goal of preparing a motion is “to keep a debate going” – as prof. Piotr Gliński,
the possible candidate for PM described in the TV interview.
Background:
“Wprost” weekly published a partial transcription of secretly recorded private conversations
between:
1. Marek Belka (head of National Bank of Poland) and Bartłomiej Sienkiewicz (Minister
of the Interior)
2. Sławomir Nowak (former PM Donald Tusk’s chief of staff, discredited after he had not
disclosed an expensive watch in the material benefits report) and Andrzej
Parafinowicz (former Deputy Minister of Finance)
3. Paweł Graś (secretary general of Civic Platform) and Jacek Krawiec (head of Orlen,
the biggest oil refiner and petrol retailer, the state is the biggest shareholder with 27.52
of shares)
4. Radosław Sikorski (minister of foreign affairs) with Jan Rostowski (then the minister
of finance)
5. Włodzimierz Karpiński (minister of treasury), Jacek Krawiec (Orlen) and Zdzisław
Gawlik (deputy minister of treasury)

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6. Stanisław Gawłowski (deputy minister of environment) and Piotr Wawrzynowicz
(businessman, in past connected with Civic Platform, now works for the richest Pole,
Jan Kulczyk)
Additionally, the existence of other recordings is also possible: of Elżbieta Bieńkowska
(Minister of Infrastructure and Regional Development) with the head of Central Anti-Corruption
Bureau (Paweł Wojtunik), and of Jan Kulczyk (richest Pole) with Krzysztof Kwiatkowski (head
of National Chamber of Audit). According to some sources, there may be even few hundred
hours of recordings.
Recent developments:
Soon after the first part of recordings were published by Wprost weekly, the Internal Security
Agency (ABW) raided the Wprost’s office looking for copies of recordings. The raid was
broadcasted live online. The attempt of getting access to recordings failed, few days later the
editor in chief of Wprost provided copies of recordings directly to the prosecutor. The raid was
later presented as the violation of media freedom by the government, even if Mr Tusk many
times underlined that he has no influence on the prosecutor (independent) and it would be
illogical for the government to inspire such actions.
After the scandal emerged, the support for the ruling party dropped to 24%, the main
opposition party (Law and Justice) has 31%. The “New Right Congress” – new player on the
political scene that recently got 4 places in European Parliament – has 10%. 51% of Poles
support the earlier parliamentary elections. Polls were conducted on May 23rd
, the day the
second part of transcriptions was published.
According to press investigation conducted by Puls Biznesu daily (see the English version of
PB’s article at http://m.pb.pl/3742120,80887?dimension=640), there is a strong clue pointing
to the Russians and private coal company fighting for keeping its market as the source of
the tape scandal.
During the parliamentary session on May 25th
, PM Donald Tusk referred the recent
developments and asked the Parliament for the vote of confidence. The government won the
vote.

3. Domaniewska 42
02-672 Warsaw, Poland
T: +48 (22) 278 38 00
F: +48 (22) 278 38 75
Consequences of the scandal
Short-term:
 The discussion in Poland weakened the position of Polish government shortly before
the European Council on June 26-27, that is to focus on new commissioners European
energy policy and increasing energy independence of EU (independence from Russian
energy sources was one of key topics of Polish position);
 Weakening the position of Civic Platform before regional elections planned for
November 2014;
 Possible consolidation of right-side part of political scene;
 Decreased probability of parliamentary elections before the planned end of term (late
2015).
Long-term:
The history of previous “tape scandals” (Mr Sawicki, Glapiński-Beger, etc.) and their influence
on society suggest that in just a few weeks the case will become a non-issue for an average
Pole. Despite attempts of opposition parties, the polarization of media becomes a fact and now
half of influential media (esp. Gazeta Wyborcza daily and Polityka weekly) support the official
line of government’s argumentation (eavesdropping is illegal, publishing recordings without
prior investigation by journalists is not a journalism, one should find these who are behind
recordings etc.)
The recordings will be used by the opposition in the election campaign as a proof of secret
talks aiming at breaching the Constitution by Civic Platform. So far opposition parties have no
idea how to use these recordings.
The more visible effect might be the reform of the Polish secret services that were unable to
prevent the recording (even though the VIP room in the restaurant where the conversations
were recorded was checked by secret service officers) and – in a few months – possible
change on the position of the minister of the interior.
It is also clearly visible that the significance of Polish People’s Party (PSL) – the smaller
coalition partner – rises. PSL’s leader, deputy PM Janusz Piechociński, again became the
important player on the political scene.

4. Domaniewska 42
02-672 Warsaw, Poland
T: +48 (22) 278 38 00
F: +48 (22) 278 38 75
It must be underlined that new tapes, if published, may contain additional controversial details
that might change the situation completely.
In case of additional questions, please contact:
Łukasz Jachowicz, Head of Public Affairs
Lukasz.Jachowicz@mslgroup.com