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Risky Business: Real Options for Business Agility
1
Todd Little, Chairman Kanban University @toddelittle
Managing Enterprise Agility
When will we get the requirements?
All in good time, my little pretty, all in good time
But I guess it doesn't matter anyway
Doesn't anybody believe me?
You're a very bad man!
Just give me your estimates by this afternoon
No, we need something today!
I already promised the customer it will be out in 6 months
No, we need it sooner.
Not so fast! Not so fast! ... I'll have to give the matter a little
thought. Go away and come back tomorrow
Ok then, it will take 2 years.
Team Unity
Project Kickoff
We’re not in Kansas Anymore
My! People come and go so quickly here!
I may not come out alive, but I'm goin' in there!
The Great and Powerful Oz has got matters well in hand.
"Hee hee hee ha ha! Going so soon? I wouldn't
hear of it! Why, my little party's just beginning!
Developer Hero
Reorg
Testing
How do businesses deal with
risk and uncertainty?
Weather
Forecasting:
Hurricane Rita
The Cone of Uncertainty
We expect uncertainty and manage for it through iterations,
anticipation, and adaptation.
Getting Better
Movies
Oil & Gas Exploration
Oil & Gas Exploration
Poker
Poker
Metric:
Percent of
Hands Won
Risk management tools
Types of Risk
Categories of risk
Delivery Failure
Business Case
Failure
Collateral Damage
Quality and Market
Acceptance
Business Case Failure
Is your Strategy a Bucket or a Filter?
Bad Strategies (Rumelt)
Fluff
Failure to face the problem
Mistaking goals for strategy
Fuzzy or overly complex strategic objectives
 “increase market share”
 "our fundamental strategy is one of customer-centric intermediation."
 “reaching for the impossible to do the impossible"
 47 strategies and 178 action items.
 Action item number 122 was 'create a strategic plan.’
LKCE19 - Todd Little - Risky Business: Real Options for Business Agility
Purpose Alignment Model
CAN WE
CREATE A
DIFFERENTIATED
PARTNERSHIP?
INNOVATE,
CREATE
MINIMIZE /
ELIMINATE
ACHIEVE AND
MAINTAIN PARITY,
MIMIC, SIMPLIFY
Applicable at all Levels
• Corporate Strategy
• Product Strategy
• Feature
22
A View of Strategy - Apple
ATT
NEW PRODUCT DESIGN
USER EXPERIENCE
CONTENT DISTRIBUTION
MS OFFICE
INTEL HARDWARE
OTHER SOFTWARE
PERIPHERALS
Fit for Purpose
• Who are your
Customers?
• What is their
purpose(s)?
• What Problem(s) do
they want solved
Delivery Failure
Late
Over Budget
Understand Bias
"What gets us into trouble is not what we don't
know. It's what we know for sure that just ain't
so.“
»Mark Twain
Negotiation Bias
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something
when his salary depends upon his not understanding
it.“
»Upton Sinclair:
Software Projects: Actual vs. Original Estimate
10-20% 50% 80-90%
1X
2X
4X
P90/P10 = 4
In God we trust, all others must bring data
Fat tail vs. Thin tail
Data over Estimation
Kanban Impact at Accenture Brazil
Market Acceptance
Features and Quality
Market Acceptance
“I skate to
where the
puck is going
to be, not
where it has
been.”
Wrong Priorities?
Lean Startup Feedback Loops
Fit for Purpose
• Feedback from the
front line
• Fit for Purpose Box
Score
Collateral Damage
Delivery Failure results in Collateral Damage
I’m beginning to
think it wasn’t such a
good idea to turn off
those unit tests
I’m beginning to think it wasn’t such a good idea to turn off
those unit tests
Risk management tools
Risk Management Tools
Value of InformationValue of Uncertainty
Tornado ChartReal Options
Value of Flexibility
Summary
1. Know what business you are in
2. Discover the risks and uncertainties
that dominate your business
3. Get very good at managing for those
uncertainties
4. Feedback loops are critical to learning
Gordon the Guided Missile
Understand Bias
“When the odd are against you it is gambling.
When the odds are in your favor you are
investing.”
»Patrick Leach
Contact
Todd Little
 todd@mauvius.com
 @toddelittle

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LKCE19 - Todd Little - Risky Business: Real Options for Business Agility