This document summarizes research on the relationship between coca cultivation, deforestation, and biodiversity in forest frontier regions. The key points are: 1. Direct deforestation from coca plots is relatively small, but indirect effects on broader deforestation rates are larger. Regions with more coca cultivation see higher overall deforestation. 2. In Bolivia, periods with more coca production corresponded to higher deforestation rates. 3. While coca cultivation directly impacts small areas, its presence in regions with endemic species can still threaten biodiversity through indirect effects on habitat loss. More detailed analysis is needed of its impacts on threatened species.

1. The forest frontier as the link between conflict risk,
coca cultivation and high biodiversity areas
Liliana M. Dávalos
ICCB
24 July 2017
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2. Coca = deforestation Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

3. Evaluating effects of
coca
• Direct vs. indirect
• Plots small, direct
effect small
• Indirect effects larger
• There are other countries
• Should hold across
producers
• Background
deforestation ≠ 0
• Must control for other
factors
• E.g., roads, population
Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. &
Tech.

4. Rates higher in areas
without coca, but Bolivia
Data from Hansen et al. 2013
Science

5. Direct loss rate from
coca is low
UNODC 2016 World Drug
Report

6. In Bolivia rates did rise
with coca boom
Killeen et al. 2007 Ambio

7. If not coca then what?
Sánchez Cuervo & Aide 2013
Ecosystems Armenteras et al. 2013
Reg. Environ. Change
Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

8. Key points, illicit crops
• Direct effects
• Loss rate high when
compared to other
agriculture ✘
• Indirect effects:
• Loss rate higher in
producer regions ✘
• Times with more coca
correspond to more
deforestation in Bolivia ✔
• Coca cultivation will covary
with rates ✘
Novoa & Finer 2015

9. Similarities
• Brücher 1977 Geogr. Z.
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest Probability of coca
b c

10. A spatial relationship Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience
Coca cultivation
High
Low
2014
Percent forest
High
Low
Probability of coca
b c

11. The Amazonian frontier Denevan 1966 Geogr. Rev.

12. The frontier
• Border between settled lands
and natural habitats (nominally
belongs to the state)
• Forest->property
• Final state = no forest
• Already happened in other
regions
• Most of Andes
• western Caquetá
• western Putumayo
• Currently unfolding in parts
of Amazonia, most of Chocó
Etter et al. 2006 J. Environ.
Manage.
Fractionforest

13. 200 km
40 km
Not all effects
depend on rates
• If endemic species
• Small area = large
effect
• Biodiversity in Andes,
Chocó
• High
• Irreplaceable
• Detailed and focused
analyses needed
Unpublished

14. Amphibians Birds MammalsThreatenedspeciesAllspecies
2,000km0
High
High
Low
Low
Coca is a major threat Unpublished

15. The frontier A general model
Fractionforest
coca beachhead
Time ->
mixed agriculture
properties
pastures!

16. Álvarez 2001 Environmentalist

17. Álvarez 2001 Environmentalist
Yes! Because the frontier goes on

18. Thanks!