2. Super Bowl Predictions
! Rely on many factors
! Quantifiable measures of team performance
! Intangible assessments of momentum
! We can draw on the predictions of a large number of
experts in the field
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3. Decision Lens Application
! Blend together quantitative and qualitative
assessments
! Sensitivity analysis allows for examination of “what-if”
scenarios
! Hierarchy process works well for breaking down
criteria, e.g. offense, defense, and special teams
3
4. Three Main Factors
! Advanced Statistics
! Expert/Group Assessments
! Vegas Lines, Pundits, National Polls
! Intangibles
! Momentum, Previous Super Bowl Experience, etc.
4
5. Advanced Statistics
! Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
! Developed by Football Outsiders
! Accounts for outside factors to provide accurate
assessment of offense, defense, and special teams
! Publicly available results
5
6. Expert/Group Assessments
! Point spreads and moneyline bets show how Vegas
oddsmakers view the probabilities of each team’s
victory
! Football Outsiders uses their DVOA formulas and
others to make a prediction
! Crowd-sourced opinions from ESPN’s SportsNation
poll of over 300,000 fans
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7. Intangibles
! Momentum, injury risk, coaching record
! Ray Lewis
! Ability to analyze qualitative factors a strength for
Decision Lens
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8. Results
Three Scenarios
! “Stat-Heavy”
! “Defense Wins Championships”
! “Trust The Experts”
Score of 1 means best in the league in every category and 100%
chance to win game
Score of 0 means worst in the league in every category and 0%
chance to win game
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9. Stat-Heavy
! 60% of weight is allocated to advanced statistics
! Defense equal importance to offense
! Passing > Rushing
! Special teams mild impact
! Total scores: San Francisco .589, Baltimore .536
Close San Francisco win
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10. Defense Wins Championships
! Less weight is allocated to statistics, but that weight
is more heavily allocated to defense
! Total scores: San Francisco .628, Baltimore .476
San Francisco’s defensive advantage is larger than their
advantage in other areas
10
11. Trust The Experts
! More weight is allocated to the predictive measures
of Vegas oddsmakers, Football Outsiders, and
ESPN’s crowd-sourced poll
! Total scores: San Francisco .611, Baltimore .461
Experts are confident in San Francisco’s
chances of victory
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12. How could Baltimore win?
! Baltimore has advantages in two categories
! Special Teams performance
! Intangible factor of Ray Lewis
! Situations in which Baltimore scores higher depend
on one or both of those factors having a much higher
weight than normal
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13. Conclusion
! Decision Lens predicts a medium-sized victory for
San Francisco, neither blowout nor nailbiter
! Most likely scenario of a Baltimore victory involves a
game-changing special teams play
! Jacoby Jones (BAL) has 3 return tds this season
! David Akers (SF) has had an off year kicking
13
17. For more information about this presentation and
sports related predictions please contact
Gavin Byrnes – gbyrnes@decisionlens.com
He loves this stuff.
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