2022-We Are All Futurists-Maremel-GJohnson-Futures-of-Retooling-Information-Experiences-final.pptx
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March 2022 Keynote on Retooling Information Experiences, focused as well for SXSW 2023 Panel Picker
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2022-We Are All Futurists-Maremel-GJohnson-Futures-of-Retooling-Information-Experiences-final.pptx
- 1. We Are All Futurists: Rethinking and Retooling for Possible Digital Future(s) Exploring and disrupting beliefs/norms around the present and futures of work and information decision systems Dr. Gigi Johnson Maremel Institute
- 2. Retooling for…what futures? ●What if we knew “The Future”? ●WHOSE future? ●Are we futures takers or futures creators? ●What would we retool and rebuild as individuals and experts making decisions? ●What would we do within our organizations?
- 3. What would we do if we “really knew”?
- 4. Would we find good news in bad? And take action? Khan Academy 2008 // Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy 1951-53
- 8. “Cyborg Anthropology” Sub-specialty launched at the Annual Meetings of the American Anthropological Association, associated with the Committee for the Anthropology of Science, Technology, and Computing. How humans and non-human objects interact with each other, and how that changes culture. -- Amber Case 1993
- 9. Fiction and Movies: Framing Future Experiences ●1982 - Bladerunner –Nov. 2019 timeline ●1984 - The Terminator– Skynet “ 2:14 a.m. Eastern time on August 29th 1997” ●1995 - first In Death book by JD Robb (Nora Roberts) in 2058 NYC ●1999 - The Matrix ●2002 - Minority Report - MIT’s work spurred Oblong human- computer interface ●2011 – Ready Player One – in 2045 – 2018 film ●2015 -Ex Machina – 2015
- 10. Framing Processes of Futuring: 2004 Futuring: The exploration of the future. World Future Society, Edward Cornish
- 11. 2008 Wall-E Hove
- 12. 2009 Up, 2009
- 13. 16 New Expectations of “Experience“ “FOMO”: Fear of Missing Out 2019
- 16. “The” Future? Whose future? Who is influencing our perspectives and choices? Participative Futuring? Foresight and trend analysis as a consulting business
- 18. Futuring Organizations and Publications Institute for the Future World Future Society Futurist Magazine Futures Research Quarterly Journal of Futures Studies (2007-present) Hawaii Research Center for Futures Studies (1971-2014) http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/
- 19. Institute for the Future 20 Combintorial Forecasts Institute for the Future: http://www.iftf.org/maps/20-combinatorial-forecasts/20-combinatorial-forecasts-map/
- 20. Global Trends 2040 Bioconvergence 2040 National Intelligence Council 2021 Office of the Director of National Intelligence
- 21. Global Trends 2040 Future of Work 2040 National Intelligence Council 2021
- 22. Our Focus: Current/Futures of Information and Automation in/with Work • Automation • Digitization • Augmentation “Work” – Individual level • Remote • Global • Collaborative Systems Workplace • “Ma” – space in between • Collaboration • Gig • Hiring / Training / Retention Systems
- 24. Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies (2019 / 2021) https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/5- trends-appear-on-the-gartner-hype-cycle-for- emerging-technologies-2019/
- 26. Partial List of AI Performance 2019 IBM Cognitive Opentech Group
- 27. Decreasing Cost of a Digital Worker (to whom?) 2017 IBM Cognitive Opentech Group IBM Open AI
- 28. Five Segments of Smart Machines ●Source: BCC Research / Siemens.com
- 31. Data Management as 5C’s of the Future MIS Quarterly Research Curations 2022 https://www.misqrese archcurations.org/blog /2022/2/11/data- management
- 32. How do we rethink and retool? How do we as people, information system professionals, and thought leaders?
- 35. What do we know…and how do we work in the Gaps? Now Near Futures Far Futures
- 36. Stepping into the Near Future Weak Signals – What is “coming” vs. here … as I’ve said many times the future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.” -- William Gibson, 1999 NPR interview
- 37. Big Picture Issues: Look at other sectors for what already is happening Impact of Connected Tech and Data Decision Systems on… ●Medical care ●Biotech ●Industrial Work ●Agriculture ●Education ●Gig Economy ●Creative Work ●Large Corporations ●Aging ●Transportation ●Digital Home ●Travel/Tourism ●Immigration/Migration
- 39. Smartphone Dependence: Dscout study, 2016, 94 people https://blog.dscout.com/mobile-touches
- 40. Tristan Harris, https://journal.thriveglobal.com/how-technology-hijacks-peoples-minds-from-a-magician-and- google-s-design-ethicist-56d62ef5edf3 If you control the Menu, You Control the Choices Tristan Harris
- 41. Music Use and Location: Training Us and Selling our Behaviors to Brands
- 44. Data + Natural Language Processing =
- 45. Alexa Questions
- 46. Adding to Where You Are: Computer Vision and AR in RL
- 47. On the Good Side: Augmented Creativity, Computational Creativity and Creative Systems ●Creative systems: Ben Shneiderman, Univ. Of Maryland College Park, defined it, technologies that allow more people “to be more creative more of the time”” ●AI to support Business Process Reingineering – Disney, Fox, ??? ●AI to support creative processes – Fox, Warner Bros. company- wide systems; embedded in creative support tools ●DESKILLING and broadening use by DAWs, game engines, plugins, and no-code creative tools
- 48. So How Do We Retool our Decision Information Support Systems for a Digital Future?
- 50. What do we worry from Near to Far Futures? Now Near Futures Far Futures
- 51. AI, Big Data, and Tracking Customers ●AI and Big Data to connect customers, mass data, and behaviors ●Datorama BI (now part of Salesforce) ●Pex, with 10,000 servers, scraping and computer vision detecting audiovisual near real time ●Satellite coverage of parking lots, military, and agritech
- 52. Gathering Remote Raw Data . . . And Aggregating It
- 55. And beyond: Weaponizing and Filtering by Beliefs and Information ●Propaganda – not new ●Mythopoesis – Finnish Defense Forces tracking a decade of narrative shifting beliefs about probable futures ●David Boje – antenarratives – pieces of social stories to be recrafted into worlds ●Now: Personalized based on attitudes; changing past and view of the future ●Agnotology – production of ignorance ●Data voids – being filled in by players ●Organized Immaturity – systems reducing our agency and executive functions by design and marketplace ●2016 – erasing Whitehouse.gov – moved to a different site ●Hyperlinks – not permanent views and shares of the past ●My brief time in ICANN – Brazil and Russia looking to create separate Internets ● “Frictionless” autonomous car environments
- 56. Tristan Harris’ Solutions – Designing Systems to Value our Time ●https://journal.thriveglobal.com/how-technology- hijacks-peoples-minds-from-a-magician-and- google-s-design-ethicist-56d62ef5edf3
- 57. What do we know…and how do we work in the Gaps? And help our organizations build Decision Resilliance? Now Near Futures Far Futures
- 58. The Industries of the Future (2016), Alex Ross Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions (2016), Brian Christian, Tom Griffiths The Master Algorithm (2016), Pedro Domingos Data and Goliath: The Hidden Battles to Collect Your Data and Control Your World (2015), Bruch Rise of the Robots: Technology and a Threat of a Jobless Futures (2016), Martin Ford The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (2014), Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee The Age of Surveillance Capitalism: The Fight for a Human Future at the New Frontier of Power (2019), Shoshana Zuboff Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy (2016), Kathy O’Neil Books 1
- 59. Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (2016), Nick Bostrom, Future of Humanity Institute Possible Minds: 25 Ways of Looking at AI (2019), ed. John Brockman The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future (2016), Kevin Kelly Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2016) Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions are Next to Worthless, and You Can Do Better (2011), Daniel Gardner The Future: A Very Short Introduction (2017), Jennifer Gidley Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (2018), Max Tegmark (MIT) AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order (2018), Kai-Fu Lee Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future (2017 ), Andrew McAfee, Erik Berynholfsson Shaping the Future of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (2018) Klaus Schwab, Nicholas Davis, Satya Nadella
- 61. Related Research ●Smartphone owners interact with their phones an average of 85 times a day, including immediately upon waking up, just before going to sleep, and even in the middle of the night (Perlow 2012; Andrews et al. 2015; dscout 2016). ●Ninety-one percent report that they never leave home without their phones (Deutsche Telekom 2012), ●46% say that they couldn’t live without them (Pew Research Center 2015). ●Smartphones promise to create a surplus of resources, productivity, and time (e.g., Turkle 2011; Lee 2016 ●Consumers’ interactions with their smartphones can both facilitate and interrupt off-screen performance (e.g., Isikman et al. 2016; Sciandra and Inman 2016). ●Capacity limits shape a wide range of behaviors, from in-the- moment decision-making strategies and performance (e.g., Lane 1982; Lynch and Srull 1982) to long-term goal pursuit and self-regulation (e.g., Hofmann, Strack, and Deutsch 2008; Benjamin, Brown, and Shapiro 2013).
- 62. Futurist Societies from Ross Dawson ●Global Associations – Association of Professional Futurists (APF) – International Institute of Forecasters (IIF) – LaFutura – The Millennium Project – World Futures Society (WFS) – World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) ●National/Regional Associations – Center for Philippine Futuristics Studies and Management Inc. (APF) – Dutch Futures Society (DFS) – European Foresight Platform (EFP) – Finnish Society for Futures Studies – Futures Specialists Helsinki – Futuribles – Institute for Futures Research (IFR) – Italian Institute for the Future (IIF) – Kansallinen ennakointiverkosto (KEV) (National Foresight Network) – Netzwerk Zukunftsforschung e.V. (Network Future Research e. V.) – Polish Society for Future Studies – Prospective 2100 – The Futures Foundation ●Sector Specific Associations – Communities of the Future (COTF) – Euroconstruct – Public Sector Foresight Network (PSFN) – Society of Police Futurists International
- 63. Visual Notes, EPIC Conference Jan. 2019 Keynote EPIC Notes
- 65. We all understand the joys of our always-wired world—the connections, the validations, the laughs … the info. … But we are only beginning to get our minds around the costs. Andrew Sullivan, New York Magazine, Sept. 2016, “I Used to Be a Human Being”