Relying on the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI)’s 2019 Top Industry Issues report, Mr. Murray discussed critical issues in the trucking industry and how they impact both carriers and consumers.

1. Understanding Critical Issues in
the Trucking Industry…
Dan Murray
American Transportation
Research Institute
2019 MATC Webinar Series

2. ATRI
Trucking industry’s not-for-profit
research organization
 Safety
 Mobility
 Economic Analysis
 Technology
 Environment
www.TruckingResearch.org

3. Board of Directors

4. Research Advisory Committee

5. 3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
Job Market
Sources: BLS & ATA
2016 2017 2018 2019
4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Monthly Job Changes
(Thousands)
Previous 12-month avg:
188,333

6. Wage Data
3.2%
1.8%
2.3% 2.4%
2.6%
3.0% 3.0%
3.4%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4% Wages & Salaries
Sources: BLS & ATA
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Average Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent)

7. Retail Sales
Sources: Census Bureau & ATA
$325,000
$350,000
$375,000
$400,000
$425,000
$450,000
$475,000
$500,000
$525,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Level
(Millions of $)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Year-over-Year Percent)
Avg
2010-15 2016 2017 2018 2019
Sales
Growth 4.7% 2.9% 4.7% 4.9% 3.0%

8. Housing Starts are Leveling Off
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Total Housing Starts
(Monthly; Annualized Rate; Millions)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
H.S. 1.18 M 1.21 M 1.25 M 1.24 M 1.23 M
Sources: Census & ATA
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Single-Family vs Multi-Family Units
(Monthly; Annualized Rate; Millions)
Single-
Family

9. Factory Output
Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA
2016 2017 2018 2019
Output -0.7% 2.0% 2.7% 0.1%
90
95
100
105
110
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Factory Output
(Index)
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Factory Output
(Year-over-Year Percent)

10. Total For-Hire TL Loads
(3-Month Moving Average Data)
Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report
Avg
1993-2018 2016 2017 2018
2019
Forecast
Loads
Growth 1.9% 0.1% 3.0% 3.2% 1.0%
Includes Dry Van, Flatbed, Temp Controlled, and Tank Truck
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Year-over-Year Percent)
90
100
110
120
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Level of Loads
(January 2010 = 100; 3-Month Moving
Average)

11. Spot Market Loads
(3-Month Moving Average Data)
Sources: DAT.com and ATA
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
(Year-over-Year Percent)
90
190
290
390
490
590
690
790
890
990
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Level of Spot Market Loads
(January 2010 = 100; 3-Month Moving
Average)

12. 2019 Top Industry Issues
1. Driver Shortage (1)
2. Hours-of-Service (2)
3. Driver Compensation (new)
4. Detention / Delay at Customer
Facilities (new)
5. Truck Parking (5)
6. Driver Retention (3)
7. ELD Mandate (4)
8. CSA (6)
9. Transportation Infrastructure /
Congestion / Funding (8)
10. Economy (10)

13. 2019 Top Industry Issues
Commercial Drivers
1. Driver Compensation
2. Hours-of-Service
3. Truck Parking
4. ELD Mandate
5. Detention / Delay at Customer
Facilities
6. Speed Limiters
7. Driver Training Standards
8. Driver Distraction
9. Transportation Infrastructure
/ Congestion / Funding
10. Autonomous Truck Technology
Motor Carriers
1. Driver Shortage
2. Driver Retention
3. Hours-of-Service
4. CSA
5. Transportation Infrastructure /
Congestion / Funding
6. Detention / Delay at Customer
Facilities
7. Economy
8. ELD Mandate
9. Insurance Cost / Availability
10. Tort Reform

14. Operational Costs of Trucking
 Collects and analyzes
real-world motor
carrier operational
data
 Covers data from
2008-2017
 Calculates costs by
mile and by hour
 Sector, regional
analyses included

15. Ops Costs Dataset
Dataset comprised of:
 178,926 truck-tractors
 Average age 9.2 years, avg miles/year 89,804
 4,773 straight trucks
 Average age 4.9 years, avg miles/year 24,067
 360,434 trailers – age varies by type
Average equipment trade cycle:
 Truck-tractors – 7.6 years/695,000 miles
 Trailers – 14.3 years

16. Operational Costs of Trucking
Average Carrier Costs per Mile
Motor Carrier Costs 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Vehicle-based
Fuel Costs $0.645 $0.583 $0.403 $0.336 $0.368
Truck/Trailer Lease or
Purchase Payments
$0.163 $0.215 $0.230 $0.255 $0.264
Repair & Maintenance $0.148 $0.158 $0.156 $0.166 $0.167
Truck Insurance
Premiums
$0.064 $0.071 $0.074 $0.075 $0.075
Permits and Licenses $0.026 $0.019 $0.019 $0.022 $0.023
Tires $0.041 $0.044 $0.043 $0.035 $0.038
Tolls $0.019 $0.023 $0.020 $0.024 $0.027
Driver-based
Driver Wages $0.440 $0.462 $0.499 $0.523 $0.557
Driver Benefits $0.129 $0.129 $0.131 $0.155 $0.172
TOTAL $1.676 $1.703 $1.575 $1.592 $1.691

17. Operational Costs of Trucking
Average Carrier Costs per Hour
Motor Carrier Costs 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Vehicle-based
Fuel Costs $25.78 $23.29 $16.13 $13.45 $14.50
Truck/Trailer Lease or
Purchase Payments
$6.52 $8.59 $9.20 $10.20 $10.39
Repair & Maintenance $5.92 $6.31 $6.23 $6.65 $6.58
Truck Insurance
Premiums
$2.57 $2.89 $2.98 $3.00 $2.95
Permits and Licenses $1.04 $0.76 $0.78 $0.88 $0.92
Tires $1.65 $1.76 $1.72 $1.41 $1.50
Tolls $0.77 $0.90 $0.79 $0.97 $1.05
Driver-based
Driver Wages $17.60 $18.46 $19.95 $20.91 $21.97
Driver Benefits $5.16 $5.15 $5.22 $6.18 $6.78
TOTAL $67.00 $68.09 $62.98 $63.66 $66.65

18. Operational Costs of Trucking
Bonus Type
Average Bonus
per Driver
Safety $1,317
On-Time Delivery $2,542
Starting $1,401
Retention $974

19. Trucking Failures Per Quarter
Source: Avondale Partners
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000

20. Source: ATA
50% 52%
83%
98% 96% 95% 93%
81%
86%
8% 9% 8% 9% 11% 11% 11% 9% 8%0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
TL LTL
Truck Driver Turnover Rates
TL Q3 2017: 95%

21. Truck Driver Age Demographics
4.5%
18.2%
22.1%
26.0%
22.3%
7.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
20-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-54 yrs 55-64 yrs 65+ yrs
2018
Truck transportation Construction Professional /Business Services All U.S. Industry

22. Congestion and Trucking
 Trucking Industry Support for ATRI’s GPS Data Initiative
 Anonymity
 Win-Win for Industry and Government
 Targets Major Problem Areas/Focuses Investment
 Focuses on Freight Needs
 Trusted Third Party with In-Depth Industry Knowledge
 Analysis for Weather, Incidents, Truck Parking
 So what specifically can truck GPS data tell us?

23. Atlanta – 3,000 Trucks Analyzed

24. Truck Movement After 24 Hours

25. Truck Movement After 48 Hours

26. Truck Movement After 72 Hours

27. Truck Movement After 5 Days

28. Truck Movement After 7 Days

29. Cost of Congestion
 Congestion on U.S.
NHS cost trucking
industry $74.5B in
2016
 Lost productivity =
1.2 billion hours
 Equates to 425,533
commercial drivers
sitting idle for
entire year

31. 2019 Top 10 Truck Bottlenecks
Rank Location
Average
Peak
Speed
Y-o-Y
Change in
Average
Peak Speed
1 Fort Lee, NJ: I-95 at SR 4 23.0 -7.65%
2 Atlanta, GA: I-285 at I-85 (North) 22.9 -7.35%
3 Atlanta, GA: I-75 at I-285 (North) 27.4 -9.91%
4 Los Angeles, CA: SR 60 at SR 57 34.5 1.05%
5 Houston, TX: I-45 at I-69/US 59 24.2 -9.46%
6 Cincinnati, OH: I-71 at I-75 36.2 -7.42%
7 Chicago, IL: I-290 at I-90/I-94 17.6 -16.74%
8 Nashville, TN: I-24/I-40 at I-440 (East) 28.1 -11.75%
9 Atlanta, GA: I-20 at I-285 (West) 38.3 -5.06%
10 Los Angeles, CA: I-710 at I-105 26.8 -12.35%

32. Hours-of-Service Flexibility
 Would flexibility in
HOS rules provide
opportunity to
improve congestion?
 Depending on time of
day – 40 mile trip can
range from 40
minutes to over 93
minutes
 Cost for one trip
ranges from $42.32 to
$99.11

33. Two Trips Modeled Current
HOS and 6/4 Split
Driver B – Flex HOS
Rules – logged 45.5
minutes less drive
time and 75.5
minutes less on-
duty time

35. Crash Predictor 2018 Update
 Analysis of over
435,000 driver
records to identify
behaviors (prior
crashes, violations,
convictions) most
predictive of future
crash involvement
 Updates earlier
Crash Predictor
Models from 2005
and 2011

36. Top 10 Crash Predictor Behaviors
If a driver had:
Crash likelihood
increased:
A Reckless Driving violation 114%
A Failure to Yield Right of Way violation 101%
A Failure to Keep in Proper Lane conviction 83%
A Failure to Use / Improper Signal conviction 82%
A Past Crash 74%
An Improper Lane / Location conviction 72%
An Improper Pass conviction 70%
A Reckless / Careless / Inattentive / Negligent
Driving conviction
69%
An Improper or Erratic Lane Changes conviction 66%
An Improper Lane Change violation 63%

37. Impact of Gender
 Female drivers
safer than males in
every statistically
significant
behavior
 Men 20% more
likely to be
involved in crash
than women
Event
Relative to
Females,
Likelihood for
Males
Increased By:
Reckless / Careless /
Inattentive /
Negligent Driving
conviction
88%
Seat Belt violation 78%
Failure to Obey
Traffic Signal / Light
conviction
73%
Speeding 1-15 Miles
Over Speed Limit
conviction
70%

38. Stable Predictors of Crash Risk
Across all three ATRI Crash Predictor
Models, the top five stable predictors of
crash risk are:
1. A Past Crash
2. An Improper Lane / Location conviction
3. A Reckless / Careless / Inattentive / Negligent
Driving conviction
4. An Improper or Erratic Lane Changes conviction
5. An Improper Lane Change violation

39. Impact of Nuclear Verdicts
 Research Tasks
 Literature review
 Stakeholder interviews
 Identify/obtain
appropriate data sets
 Analysis and develop
trends,
recommendations
 13 stakeholder
interviews conducted
to date
 Insurance
 Defense attorneys
 Plaintiff attorneys
 Potential data sources
 LexisNexis
 Westlaw
 Tractor-Trailer Torts
 CaseMetrix
 PACER (Public Access
to Court Electronic
Records)
 American College of
Transportation
Attorneys
 Motor Carrier insurers
 Survey data collection
in collaboration with
transportation
attorneys

40. Detention Time Impacts
 Multi-year analysis
of detention impacts
on industry safety
and productivity
 Based on over 1,900
driver and motor
carrier surveys
collected in 2014
and 2018

41. Detention Getting Worse
 Between 2014 and
2018, drivers reported
27.4% increase in
delays of 6+ hours
 Nearly 40% increase
in drivers reporting
majority of
appointments delayed
due to customer
actions

42. Detention Costs Fleets and Drivers
 Average excessive detention fee per
hour charged by fleets was $63.71,
less than $66.65/hour from ATRI’s
Operational Costs of Trucking
 20% of smaller fleets (<50 power
units) do not charge detention in order
to stay competitive with larger fleets

43. No Vacancy

44. No Vacancy

45. Truck Parking Diary Report
 Truck Parking Diaries
 Drivers kept 14 days of
parking activity
 Includes when, where, how
long to find a spot, how many
spots occupied by non-CMVs,
lost productivity, etc
 148 completed diaries were
returned between June and
September 2016
 2,035 days of truck parking
activity
 4,763 unique stops

46. Tools Used to Find Parking

47. Frequency of
Unauthorized/Undesignated Parking

48. Average Remaining Drive Time
Average = 56 minutes/day
Opportunity Cost = $4,600 annually

49. Retail Sales
(Q1 2000 = 100)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total E-Commerce
Source: Census Bureau
+49%
+1433%

50. Dry Van Average Length-Of-Haul is Down
Source: ATA
796 miles

51. E-Commerce Impacts on Trucking
Industry
 Examines growth of
e-commerce,
impacts on trucking
 E-commerce sales
grew from less than
1% of total U.S.
retail sales in 1999
to more than 9% in
2017

52. Trucking Industry Impacts
 “Last Mile Fulfillment Centers” represented
73% of industrial real estate market in 2017
 Single-unit truck registrations increased by
7.8% between 2007-2016
 Compared to 4.4% growth in combination truck
 Average trip lengths decreased 37% since
2000; urban VMT increased
 Intrastate and local hauls for e-commerce
could serve as training opportunity for 18-20-
year-old drivers

54. Technologies…
 RADAR
 LIDAR
 Video Optics
 D-GPS / Digitized Mapping
 ????

55. Top Issues Key Autonomous Truck Benefit
Hours-of-Service Allows for driver rest and productivity to occur simultaneously.
Compliance, Safety,
Accountability
Will decrease raw SMS scores, though percentile scoring needs to
change.
Driver Shortage
Driving more attractive with higher productivity, less time away from
home, and additional logistics tasks; fewer drivers may be needed.
Driver Retention Companies with autonomous technology may attract and retain drivers.
Truck Parking
If "productive rest" is taken in the cab during operations, less time will
be required away from home at truck parking facilities and fewer
facilities will be needed.
Electronic Logging Device
Mandate
Modifications will be necessary depending on level of autonomy.
Driver Health and Wellness Driver could be less sedentary; injuries could be reduced.
The Economy Carriers that use AT may see productivity and cost benefits.
Infrastructure / Congestion
/ Funding
Urban congestion could be mitigated through widespread use of
autonomous vehicles (including cars).
Driver Distraction
Drivers will not be distracted from driving if vehicle in autonomous
mode.

56.  Safety by the Numbers…
 Where is U.S. DOT?
 Tort Issues will destroy the Best of Ideas
 Negligence vs Liability
 Drivers/Carriers to OEMs/Suppliers
 Insurance is King
 Public Perceptions…
 Please Define “Autonomous”
 Reign in “driverless car” PR
 Smart Trucks Already Exist
 DATP for a Reason!
 CV vs AV = 5.9 vs Better?
 ROIs & BCAs Will Solve All…
Most Issues Not Technology-Related

57. Most Issues Not Technology-Related
 ROIs and BCAs are completely
unknown
 What is going on with ATs?
 Massive churning
 Dust settles with highly automated trucks

58. ADAS is the Answer!!

59. “Advanced Driver Assistance Systems”

60. Questions?
Dan Murray
dmurray@trucking.org
www.TruckingResearch.org

61. United States and Mexico Border
Crossing Truck Flows: Before,
During and After Hurricane Harvey

65. Florida Truck GPS Pings:
Before, During and After Hurricane
Irma

73. 2019 Top Research Priorities
 Standardizing Truck Parking Information
Systems
 Rethinking Mileage-Based Safety Metrics
 Analyzing Younger Driver Safety in
Intrastate Driving
 Revising the ROI of Truck Safety
Technologies
 Impact of “Nuclear” Verdicts on Trucking
 Tolls: Who Pays and Where Does the
Money Go?