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M&A Outlook Graziadio Alumni Network May 19, 2011 John K. Paglia, Ph.D., CFA, CPA  Associate Professor of Finance Senior Researcher, Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project
[object Object]
 
 
What are Owners Focusing on Today?
 
 
[object Object],[object Object],State of Financing
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Capital Access Drives Valuations  and Deal Flow in the Middle Markets
Median Deal Multiples by Financial Buyers Investment Banker Survey (Spring 2011) Industry $1M EBITDA $5M EBITDA $10M EBITDA $15M EBITDA $25M EBITDA $50M EBITDA $100M EBITDA Service 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 12.0 Mfg. 4.0 5.0 6.0 5.3 6.0 7.0 10.0 Retail 3.5 5.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 7.5 8.5 Wholesale 4.8 5.3 3.3 4.0 6.5 7.0 8.0 Distribution 4.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 5.3 6.5 6.0 Oil and Gas 4.5 4.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 NA Restaurant 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 6.0 6.0 NA Healthcare 5.0 6.5 6.8 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 Technology 5.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 8.0 10.5 9.0 Media / Ent. 5.5 5.5 4.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 7.5 Average 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.9 6.4 7.5 8.5
 
Business Transfer Intentions (Spring 2011)
Business Transfer Timing (Spring 2011)
[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Compared to Six Months Ago
40% of Business Sale Engagements Expired Without a Transaction
Valuation Gaps for Non-Transacted Engagements
Difficulty Securing Senior Debt?   Very difficult Difficult Somewhat Difficult Neutral Somewhat Easy Easy Very Easy % Difficult $1M EBITDA 41.3% 27.3% 19.8% 8.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.8% 88.4% $5M EBITDA 12.7% 14.4% 33.9% 23.7% 10.2% 1.7% 3.4% 61.0% $10M EBITDA 6.6% 10.5% 15.8% 25.0% 27.6% 11.8% 2.6% 32.9% $15M EBITDA 5.8% 5.8% 19.2% 19.2% 28.8% 19.2% 1.9% 30.8% $25M EBITDA 6.5% 4.3% 17.4% 21.7% 19.6% 21.7% 8.7% 28.2% $50M EBITDA 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 20.0% 28.6% 14.3% 14.3% 22.8% $100M+ EBITDA 12.9% 6.5% 3.2% 25.8% 22.6% 12.9% 16.1% 22.6%
Balance of Capital with Opportunities   Companies worthy of financing GREATLY exceed capital available Companies worthy of financing  exceed capital available General balance between companies worthy of financing and capital available Capital available exceeds companies worthy of financing Capital available GREATLY exceeds companies worthy of financing Score $1M EBITDA 28.6% 37.1% 20.0% 11.4% 2.9% -0.8 $5M EBITDA 13.2% 30.9% 32.4% 17.6% 5.9% -0.3 $10M EBITDA 5.7% 17.0% 39.6% 24.5% 13.2% 0.2 $15M EBITDA 4.9% 22.0% 29.3% 31.7% 12.2% 0.2 $25M EBITDA 6.3% 15.6% 31.3% 18.8% 28.1% 0.5 $50M EBITDA 13.8% 10.3% 13.8% 31.0% 31.0% 0.6 $100M EBITDA 18.5% 11.1% 14.8% 22.2% 33.3% 0.4 > $100M EBITDA 14.8% 11.1% 14.8% 11.1% 48.1% 0.7
Top Issues Facing Privately Held Businesses (Today versus Emerging) Today Emerging
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],M&A Outlook The Road Ahead
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Thank You!

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M&A Outlook 2011

  • 1. M&A Outlook Graziadio Alumni Network May 19, 2011 John K. Paglia, Ph.D., CFA, CPA Associate Professor of Finance Senior Researcher, Pepperdine Private Capital Markets Project
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.  
  • 5.  
  • 6. What are Owners Focusing on Today?
  • 7.  
  • 8.  
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Median Deal Multiples by Financial Buyers Investment Banker Survey (Spring 2011) Industry $1M EBITDA $5M EBITDA $10M EBITDA $15M EBITDA $25M EBITDA $50M EBITDA $100M EBITDA Service 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 12.0 Mfg. 4.0 5.0 6.0 5.3 6.0 7.0 10.0 Retail 3.5 5.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 7.5 8.5 Wholesale 4.8 5.3 3.3 4.0 6.5 7.0 8.0 Distribution 4.3 5.3 5.0 4.5 5.3 6.5 6.0 Oil and Gas 4.5 4.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 NA Restaurant 3.0 3.0 3.5 4.0 6.0 6.0 NA Healthcare 5.0 6.5 6.8 6.0 6.0 7.0 7.0 Technology 5.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 8.0 10.5 9.0 Media / Ent. 5.5 5.5 4.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 7.5 Average 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.9 6.4 7.5 8.5
  • 12.  
  • 14. Business Transfer Timing (Spring 2011)
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. 40% of Business Sale Engagements Expired Without a Transaction
  • 18. Valuation Gaps for Non-Transacted Engagements
  • 19. Difficulty Securing Senior Debt?   Very difficult Difficult Somewhat Difficult Neutral Somewhat Easy Easy Very Easy % Difficult $1M EBITDA 41.3% 27.3% 19.8% 8.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.8% 88.4% $5M EBITDA 12.7% 14.4% 33.9% 23.7% 10.2% 1.7% 3.4% 61.0% $10M EBITDA 6.6% 10.5% 15.8% 25.0% 27.6% 11.8% 2.6% 32.9% $15M EBITDA 5.8% 5.8% 19.2% 19.2% 28.8% 19.2% 1.9% 30.8% $25M EBITDA 6.5% 4.3% 17.4% 21.7% 19.6% 21.7% 8.7% 28.2% $50M EBITDA 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 20.0% 28.6% 14.3% 14.3% 22.8% $100M+ EBITDA 12.9% 6.5% 3.2% 25.8% 22.6% 12.9% 16.1% 22.6%
  • 20. Balance of Capital with Opportunities   Companies worthy of financing GREATLY exceed capital available Companies worthy of financing exceed capital available General balance between companies worthy of financing and capital available Capital available exceeds companies worthy of financing Capital available GREATLY exceeds companies worthy of financing Score $1M EBITDA 28.6% 37.1% 20.0% 11.4% 2.9% -0.8 $5M EBITDA 13.2% 30.9% 32.4% 17.6% 5.9% -0.3 $10M EBITDA 5.7% 17.0% 39.6% 24.5% 13.2% 0.2 $15M EBITDA 4.9% 22.0% 29.3% 31.7% 12.2% 0.2 $25M EBITDA 6.3% 15.6% 31.3% 18.8% 28.1% 0.5 $50M EBITDA 13.8% 10.3% 13.8% 31.0% 31.0% 0.6 $100M EBITDA 18.5% 11.1% 14.8% 22.2% 33.3% 0.4 > $100M EBITDA 14.8% 11.1% 14.8% 11.1% 48.1% 0.7
  • 21. Top Issues Facing Privately Held Businesses (Today versus Emerging) Today Emerging
  • 22.
  • 23.