Dr. Leena B. Dam
Security Analysis and Portfolio Management
Security Analysis + Portfolio Management
Security Analysis = Valuation and analysis of
individual securities
Portfolio Management = The selection,
revision, and evaluation of a group assets
Learning Objectives:
1. To understand the different types of financial
markets.
2. To learn the various kinds of investment instruments.
3. To analyses the risk and return associated with
various investment instruments.
4. To differentiate between Investment and Speculation
5. To learn to prepare financial plans for individual
investors.
Cost of Living
Why
Investment?
Goals of Life How to achieve?
Own House
Children’s Education
Daughter’s Marriage
Peaceful Retirement
Legacy for next generation
Save part of the earnings
Make the earnings sweat to
expedite reaching the goal
Investments are required because
• Savings alone will not be enough to meet the goals
• Costs of inflation
InvestmentAmount Nominal Valueafter
10 years
Real Value after10
years
Cash stored at house Rs. 100 Rs 100 Rs. 61.4 (at 5% inflation)
Invested (6% return) Rs. 100 Rs 179 Rs. 110 (at 5% inflation)
Why Investment
Inflation/Interest
• Rate at which the value of currency
decreases.
• Money can't buy the same amount of
goods in the future.
• At 5% inflation, 1kg sugar that costs
40 rupees now will cost 65 rupees
after 10 years.
• Rate charged by the lender to the
borrower of money.
• Rate at which value of money invested
increases.
• At 8% interest, 10,000 rupees
invested today will value 22,000
rupees after 10 years
Inflation
Interest
Inflation/Interest
Inflation/Interest Illustration
Price of 1kg
sugar
with inflation
5%
Rs. 40 Rs. 65 Rs. 65
Present Value
After 10 years
(without
investing
– kept idle in a
locker )
Value after 10
years (with
investing at
8%)
Value of Rs.
1000
Rs. 1000 Rs. 1000 Rs. 2160
Quantity of
sugar that
can be
bought
1000/40 = 25
kgs
1000/65 = 15.4
kgs
2160/65 = 33.2
kgs
Inflation/Interest Illustration
Power of Compounding
• Compound interest is the interest on the Principal along with
accumulated interest.
• Money invested gives more money as it gets compounded
– Interest on interest
Tounleash the power ofcompounding
Invest early
Invest regularly
Invest for long-term not the short-term
“Compounding interest is the greatest mathematical discovery of all time”
- Albert Einstein
Power of Compounding
Illustration
• Ramu and Krishna save Rs. 20000 at the end of each year.
• Ramu invested in a financial instrument that gives 10%
returns and Krishna didn't want to take any risk and so he
saved his money in savings bank that gives 3.5% returns.
• After 10 years Krishna realizes the power of investment and
starts to invest instead of saving.
Money with Ramu Money with Krishna
After 10 years Rs. 3,18,800 Rs. 2,34,620
Money with Ramu Money with Krishna
After 20 years Rs. 11,45,500 Rs. 9,27,320
Total Money
Invested
Rs. 20,000 X 20 =
Rs. 4,00,000
Rs. 20,000 X 20 =
Rs. 4,00,000
Total Gain Rs. 7,45,500 Rs. 5,27,000
Power of Compounding Illustration
What is Investment?
Investment is the current commitment of money for a period
of time in order to derive future payments that will
compensate the investor for:
- The time the funds are committed
- The expected rate of inflation
- The uncertainty of the future payments.
How to select investments that will give investors their
required rate of return?
Real vs Financial Investment
Amount
Time horizon
Extent of liability
Uncertainty
Impact of time and risk
Liquidity
Investment Vs Speculation
Investments Vs Gambling
Categories of Investor
Aggressive – high risk and expects higher return in capital gain
Conservative – low risk and low return, regular income
Balanced – Some risk and expects moderate returns
The price of a security in the financial markets:
decided by forces of demand and supply
Types of Investors
Individual Investors
Institutional Investors
Foreign Investors
Fundamental Principles of Investment
Safety
Liquidity
Risk
Return
Risk, return and diversification
Combining securities in a portfolio
Results in a lower level of risk
Than a simple average of the risks of each
Investment in securities which are negatively correlated
Asset Allocation Model/Portfolio
•In a portfolio, investments are made in two or more assets.
•To achieve a given level of returns with the min risk possible.
Factors considered for Asset Allocation
Goal
Investor’s Risk
Tolerance
Time Horizon
Asset Allocation for different investors
Asset Allocation Model/Portfolio
Stage of Life - Investment
Insurance
Small Savings
Two Wheeler
Home
Four Wheeler
TaxSaving
Schemes
Equity
Mutual Funds
Child Education
Gold
Mutual Funds
Young Age
Early Middle
Age
Early Young
Age
Middle Age
Security
against
Uncertainty Tax Saving
Plans and Early
stages of
Wealth
Building Wealth
Building
Retirement
Planning
Stage of Life
What are securities?
Definition – a legal representative of the right to receive
prospective future benefits under stated conditions.
Generic term used for those documents evidencing
liabilities that are negotiable – that can be bought or
sold in the market.
Non Security Forms of Investment
•National Saving Schemes
•Post Office Savings Deposit Schemes
•Deposits with Commercial Banks
•Corporate Fixed Deposits
Investment Process
1. Set Investment Policy (Amt, Duration, Risk, Return)
2. Perform Security Analysis (in which security desired objective
can be best fitted)
3. Construct a portfolio (Choosing securities and diversify)
4. Revise the portfolio (necessary to review to check if desired
objective is fulfilled)
5. Evaluate performance (After a certain period)
Meaning of Investment
Investment refers to the acquisition of the asset, in the expectation of generating
income. In a wider sense, it refers to the sacrifice of present money or other resources
for the benefits that will arise in future. The two main element of investment is time
and risk
Nowadays, there is a range of investment options available in the market as one can
deposit money in the bank account, or can acquire property, or purchase shares of
the company, or invest your money in government bonds or contribute in the funds
like EPF or PPF.
Investments are majorly divided into two categories i.e. fixed income investment and
variable income investment. In fixed income investment there is a pre-specified rate of
return like bonds, preference shares, provident fund and fixed deposits while in
variable income investment, the return is not fixed like equity shares or property.
Definition of Speculation
Speculation is a trading activity that involves engaging in a risky financial transaction, in
expectation of making enormous profits, from fluctuations in the market value of
financial assets.
In speculation, there is a high risk of losing maximum or all initial outlay, but it is offset by
the probability of significant profit. Although, the risk is taken by speculators is properly
analysed and calculated.
Speculation ca be seen in markets where the high fluctuations in the price of securities
such as the market for stocks, bonds, derivatives, currency, commodity futures, etc.
BASIS FOR
COMPARISON
INVESTMENT SPECULATION
Meaning The purchase of an asset with
the hope of getting returns is
called investment.
Speculation is an act of
conducting a risky financial
transaction, in the hope of
substantial profit.
Basis for decision Fundamental factors, i.e.
performance of the company.
Hearsay, technical charts and
market psychology.
Time horizon Longer term Short term
Risk involved Moderate risk High risk
Intent to profit Changes in value Changes in prices
Expected rate of return Modest rate of return High rate of return
Funds An investor uses his own
funds.
A speculator uses borrowed
funds.
Income Stable Uncertain and Erratic
Behavior of
participants
Conservative and Cautious Daring and Careless
Difference between Investment and Speculation