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Merkapt - Keynote LETI Days- Trading risk with startups

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My June, 25 keynote at the CEA LETI Days, on how risk, is the most valuable currency between startups and industry. The key point is on how to change our perspective on risk, and be able to "game the system" so as to reach an adequate critical mass of projects.

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Merkapt - Keynote LETI Days- Trading risk with startups

  1. 1. LETI DaysTRADING RISK MERKAPT Philippe MÉDA - 2015 Trading Risk The most valuable currency between startups and industry
  2. 2. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Philippe MÉDA INNOVATION COPILOTS
  3. 3. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Philippe MÉDA The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With Startups How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Risk, the most valuable currency between startups and industry.
  4. 4. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION TWA (2001) US Airways (2002) United Airlines (2002) US Airways (2004) Northwest and Delta Airlines (2005) SARS coronavirus pandemy risk (2003) International Health Regulations initiative(2005) « IHR, is a massive global plan that maps an emergency response effort if a health emergency -- such as SARS -- strikes, involving 194 states and territories » Airlines Bankruptcy
  5. 5. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION TWA (2001) US Airways (2002) United Airlines (2002) US Airways (2004) Northwest and Delta Airlines (2005) SARS coronavirus pandemy risk (2003) International Health Regulations initiative(2005) « IHR, is a massive global plan that maps an emergency response effort if a health emergency -- such as SARS -- strikes, involving 194 states and territories » Airlines Bankruptcy
  6. 6. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION France 6 patients, no deaths (2003) SARS coronavirus pandemy risk (2003) International Health Regulations initiative(2005) Airlines Bankruptcy
  7. 7. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Airlines Bankruptcy The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  8. 8. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION 2008 $140 Crude Oil Price Peak
  9. 9. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Eyjafjallajökull 2010 $200m /day The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  10. 10. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Risk « Effect of uncertainty on objectives. »  ISO/IEC 31000:2009 Risk Management Standard.
  11. 11. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION vs. Our current knowledge Risk « Effect of uncertainty on objectives. »  ISO/IEC 31000:2009 Risk Management Standard.
  12. 12. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Uncertainty on objectives ? The Discovery of Superconductivity, Physics Today, Sept. 2010 The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  13. 13. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Uncertainty on objectives ? « As we pass the centenary of the discovery of superconductivity, the design of new and more useful superconductors remains as enigmatic as ever. As high-density current carriers with little or no power loss, high- temperature superconductors offer unique solutions to fundamental grid challenges of the 21st century and hold great promise in addressing our global energy challenge in energy production, storage, and distribution. Traditionally guided by serendipity, researchers in the field have grown into an enthusiastic global network to predictively design new superconductors. » Laura H. Greene, Dec. 2014
  14. 14. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Hype or Transfer? The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  15. 15. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Hype or Transfer? The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  16. 16. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION B2B ➔ B2C Forecasting the Market
  17. 17. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION B2C ➔ B2B Koomey’”⁹s Law Forecasting the Market
  18. 18. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION 50 Ideas Go / No-Go Pipeline
  19. 19. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION 50 Ideas 10 Projects Go / No-Go Pipeline
  20. 20. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION 50 Ideas 10 Projects 3 Prototypes Go / No-Go Pipeline
  21. 21. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION 50 Ideas 10 Projects 3 Prototypes Go / No-Go Pipeline 1 Product
  22. 22. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Knowledge/Risk 50 Ideas 10 Projects 3 Prototypes Go / No-Go Pipeline 1 Product
  23. 23. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Knowledge/Risk « Play it Safe » Paradox Rationali- zation Crunch 50 Ideas 1 Product =
  24. 24. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Risk Is a Culture Hofstede cultural dimensions The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  25. 25. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Typical VC Investment Portfolio Coventional wisdom: 30-50 Companies / year 10-20 Die at seed round 10-20 Make money and die shortly after 5-10 Survive 0-3 Transformative 120 Companies / 3 years = 1 Win
  26. 26. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Screening or Reverse Pipeline 5 Ideas
  27. 27. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Screening or Reverse Pipeline 5 Ideas 10 Projects
  28. 28. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Screening or Reverse Pipeline 5 Ideas 10 Projects 50 Projects 5 Prototypes
  29. 29. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION 1 Product Screening or Reverse Pipeline 5 Ideas 10 Projects 50 Projects 5 Prototypes 100 Projects 10 Prototypes
  30. 30. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Knowledge/Risk Screening or Reverse Pipeline 1 Product 5 Ideas 10 Projects 50 Projects 5 Prototypes 100 Projects 10 Prototypes
  31. 31. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Building Critical Mass Knowledge/Risk 1 Product 5 Ideas 100 Ideas 10 Prototypes Significative Level of Risk =
  32. 32. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Knowledge/Risk 1 Product 5 Ideas 100 Ideas 10 Prototypes Virtuous Critical Mass Building Critical Mass = Significative Level of Risk
  33. 33. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Building Critical Mass Optionality in an investment portfolio Size matters. The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  34. 34. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Significative Level of Risk Real Life? Affordable of Risk Significative Level of Risk Virtuous Critical Mass
  35. 35. LETI DaysTRADING RISK « What you must learn is that these rules are no different than the rules of a computer system. Some of them can be bent. Others can be broken. » Gaming the System The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  36. 36. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Customer Intimacy Product Leadership Operational Excellence INDUSTRY Two Different Cultures 80% Knowledge « Culture »
  37. 37. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Customer Intimacy Product Leadership Operational Excellence STARTUPS INDUSTRY 80% Knowledge « Culture » 20% Knowledge « Culture » Two Different Cultures
  38. 38. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Two Different Cultures 80% Knowledge « Culture » 20% Knowledge « Culture » Virtuous Critical Mass Significative Level of Risk Risk The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  39. 39. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Two Different Cultures 80% Knowledge « Culture » 20% Knowledge « Culture » Knowledge Virtuous Critical Mass Significative Level of Risk Risk The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  40. 40. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION Your 2020 plan has failed. Are You Investing in Risk?
  41. 41. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Are You Investing in Risk? The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION ➊ Digital transformation is done Predicted since 2007, now it’”⁹s there.
  42. 42. LETI DaysTRADING RISK ➋ Barriers to entry disappear You’”⁹ll get Tesla-ized Are You Investing in Risk? $ 100m 4 Years The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  43. 43. LETI DaysTRADING RISK Are You Investing in Risk? ➋ Barriers to entry disappear You’”⁹ll get Tesla-ized The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  44. 44. LETI DaysTRADING RISK ➌ The next billion people have been busy 21m Electrical vehicles in Shanghai how is your market? Are You Investing in Risk? The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION
  45. 45. LETI DaysTRADING RISK The Effects of UNCERTAINTY TRADING RISK With STARTUPS How To PIPELINE INNOVATION « Effect of uncertainty on objectives. »  ISO/IEC 31000:2009 Risk Management Standard. Are You Investing in Risk?
  46. 46. LETI DaysTRADING RISK LETI DaysTRADING RISK Thank you! (Download this presentation on www.merkapt.com)

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