1.
IDC Predictions 2015 Accelerating Innovation - and Growth - on the 3rd Platform
Frank Gens SVP & Chief Analyst
December 2, 2014
and Q&A with the
IDC Predictions 2015 Team

2.
IDC Predictions 2015 Team
Larry Carvalho
Gary Chen
Ruthbea Clarke
Matt Davis
Marc DeCastro
Crawford DelPrete
Lynne Dunbrack
Matt Eastwood
Kitty Fok
Frank Gens
Al Gillen
Leslie Hand
Judy Hanover
John Jackson
Jialin Jiang
Keith Kmetz
Kimberly Knickle
Charles Kolodgy
Ramon Llamas
Carrie MacGillivray
Robert Mahowald
Tom Mainelli
Stephen Minton
Henry Morris
Courtney Munroe
Bob Parker
Melanie Posey
2

3.
Situation Overview
The 3rd Platform already drives 30% of ICT spending and 100% of growth
The “Innovation Stage” will accelerate this transition
An explosion of new apps on top of the 3rd Platform
An expansion of enabling technologies: “Innovation Accelerators”
Three key developments to watch
Expanding adoption of 3rd Platform technologies
Expanding community of 3rd Platform developers/innovators
Expanding use of 3rd Platform solutions to reinvent – and continuously transform – every major industry
3

4.
#1 – WW IT and Telecom (ICT) Industry
4
ICT spending will exceed $3.8T (up 3.8%)
Enterprise IT markets will show improved growth
Emerging markets will grow 7.1%, 5X developed markets
Developed markets will poke along at 1.4%
The big story: “A Tale of Two Industries”
3rd Platform spending will account for about one-third of all ICT spending in 2015
The 2nd Platform market will tip into recession by 2H 2015

5.
#2 – Telecom Services
5
Wireless data will be the biggest ($536B) and fastest-growing (13%) Telecom Services sector
Eroding margins will drive faster innovation
Expanding portfolios of high-value, API-based services
Rapprochement with major over-the-top (OTT) service providers
Net neutrality will be mandated in the U.S.
A “hybrid” approach will leave room for mutually- beneficial Telco/OTT deals

6.
#3 – Mobile Devices & Apps
6
Smartphones and Tablets will generate 40% of all IT growth (excludes telecom services)
Phablet sales will grow 60%, cannibalize tablet sales
Chinese smartphone OEMs’ market share will surge
Wearables unit sales will underwhelm in 2015
A wrist-phone will ship, and flop
Mobile app download growth will slow, hit 150B
Apple, Google will account for almost 80%
Chinese independent apps stores: 18%
Enterprise mobile app development will more than double

7.
#4 – Cloud Services
7
Public cloud services sales will near $70B
The “greater cloud market” – including public, private clouds, and enabling IT and services – will hit $118B
IaaS competition will intensify
Amazon under attack, will hold/gain share
Many 2nd tier public IaaS clouds will drop out; Google, Microsoft, IBM, China SPs will gain share
PaaS Wars will expand
# of apps in leading marketplaces will double
% of SaaS vendors using PaaS will hit 15%; 50% by 2018
Container adoption will disrupt VMware, Microsoft
IoT, Cognitive/Machine Learning new PaaS hot spots
“Strange bedfellow” partnerships multiply
Facebook, HP, Salesforce.com, et al.

8.
#5 – Big Data & Analytics
8
Big data & analytics market will reach $125B
Rich media analytics will at least triple in 2015
Video, Audio, and Image analytics and search: expanding use cases in many industries
“Data supply chains” will be a top priority for PaaS and analytics vendors
25% of top IT vendors will offer Data-as-a-Service
IoT will be the next critical focus for data/analytics services
30% CAGR over the next five years
The “Year of Cognitive/Machine Learning”
Growing number of apps and competitors

9.
#6 – The Internet of Things
9
IoT spending will exceed $1.7T, up 14%
1/3 of spending for intelligent/embedded devices outside of the ICT industry
Cisco, IBM, Intel will form an IoT solutions company
Challenging IT industry players (like Pivotal) and industry-focused players (like Bosch, Schneider Electric and GE)
“IoT Backend as a Service” will emerge from PaaS and Industry Platform players
Predictive maintenance will lead the IoT solutions category

10.
#7 – 3rd Platform Data Centers
10
Data center growth will accelerate toward SPs
By 2016, over 50% of compute, 70% of storage capacity will be installed in hyperscale data centers
Cloud SPs will drive a new renaissance in IT hardware innovation
Lots of new workload-specialized system designs will emerge from Cloud SPs in 2015/2016 and beyond
Consolidation will continue among OEMS
Across server, storage, and networking silos
Look for increasing number of OEM/ODM strategic partnerships, M&A

11.
#8 – 3rd Platform Industries
11
1/3 of market share leaders in every industry will be disrupted by 3rd Platform competitors
Expanded customer reach, faster offering launch, expanded supply/distribution networks, transformed cost model
The number of Industry Platforms/ Communities will double in 2015
At least 60 by year end; over 100 by YE2016
Numerous 3rd Platform-driven industry disruptions emerge in 2015
Financial Services: Alternative payment systems
Government: Cities will play big roles in IoT roll-out
Retail: Location-based services will increase same shopper sales through engagement; real-time competitive pricing is next.

12.
#9 – Innovation Accelerators
12
3rd Platform-optimized Security
Securing the edge: 15% of mobile devices will be accessed biometrically (over 50% by 2020)
Securing the core: 20% of regulated data will be encrypted by YE2015 (80% by 2018)
Threat intelligence as a service: by 2017, 55% of enterprises will receive customized threat intelligence data feeds
3D Printing
By 2020, 10%+ of consumer products will be available through “produce on demand” via 3D printing
2015 spending will surge 27%, to $3.4B
Canon, Ricoh and Epson: prepping market entry
Stratsys and 3D Systems will continue to scale through M&A

13.
#10 – China
13
ICT spending of $465B+, growing over 11%
Accounting for 43% of total ICT industry growth
Domestic engines for 3rd Platform growth are roaring
Mobile, Internet, Social, and Online Shopping
China’s cloud and ecommerce leaders will challenge for global leadership
Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu
Chinese smartphone OEMs will grab 40% of global share
Lenovo/Motorola, Xiaomi, Huawei, ZTE, and Coolpad
China’s 13th 5-Year Plan will be built on 3rd Platform technologies, investments

14.
Essential Guidance
14
The 3rd Platform marketplace is now both high-growth and large-scale
100% of resources, investment need to be focused
Innovation: @scale, @velocity, @low-cost
“Amazon” yourself (continuously)
Innovation community creation and participation = “the new oxygen”
Attracting developers/innovators is priority #1
Reassessment of sustainable core value
Driving divestment and “strange bedfellow” deals
Massive (and continuous) value chain reconfigurations are underway

15.
idc.com/predictions2015
15
IDC doc#252700

16.
Joining Us for Q&A
16
Larry Carvalho
Crawford DelPrete
Matt Eastwood
John Jackson
Keith Kmetz
Charles Kolodgy
Stephen Minton
Henry Morris
Courtney Munroe
Melanie Posey
Dave Schubmehl
Vernon Turner
Dan Vesset
Rick Villars
James Wester
Meredith Whalen