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R. Scott Harris1 and Mike Cohn2
1Montana State University–Billings
2Mountain Goat Software
Incorporating Learning
and Expected Cost of Change
in Prioritizing Features
on Agile Projects
1
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Business value
Usual advice to product owners is to
prioritize based on “business value”
But what is business value?
Putting the competition out of business?
Lowering delivery cost?
Increasing short term revenue?
2
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Telling a product owner to “prioritize on
business value” offers as much guidance
as the president of General Motors
ordering a lathe operator to “maximize
3
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Traditional advice
Saaty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process is often
considered “the most promising approach”
Involves pairwise comparison of all features
Perhaps feasible once at the start of a project
Assumes perfect knowledge
Agile projects incorporate and acknowledge
learning and feedback
Not feasible every iteration on an agile project
4
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
1.Defer features with high expected
costs of change
2.Bring forward features that
generate useful knowledge
3.Incorporate new learning often, but
only to decide what to do next
Three guidelines
5
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Expected Cost of Change = ECC
Guideline 1
Defer features with high expected costs
of change
ECC = (probability of change) × (cost of change)
Overall expected cost can be lowered if features
that are likely or costly to change are deferred
We’ll know more later so deferring these means we’re
more likely to get them right
6
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Expected Cost of Change
Time
ECC
ECC0
ECC1
ECC2
7
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
An implication
Because of this we want to:
Prioritize activities that have the greatest impact
on lowering the ECC curve
This leads to:
Guideline 2
Bring forward features that generate
useful knowledge
8
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Useful knowledge
Comes in a variety of forms
About the desirability of a feature
About the usability of a feature
About the technical feasibility of a feature
Useful knowledge is knowledge that will affect
prioritization of subsequent features
Product owner asks herself,“If this feature had been
implemented already, would I do anything differently?”
9
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Guideline 3
Incorporate new learning often, but only to
decide what to do next
Learning is a continuous process
Agile projects acknowledge that all learning cannot be
put upfront (as sequential projects try)
“Now” vs.“Not Now”
Those not done “Now” are reevaluated next iteration
Supports agile preference for short iterations
10
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Release plans still necessary
Release plans are still useful and often
necessary
Help establish a vision for where a project wants
to end up
But should not detail iteration by iteration
sequencing details
11
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Practical application
Our advice to clients:
Perform rough, initial prioritization based on the
“business value” of each feature
Don’t bother prioritizing beyond the next 1-3
iterations
Think of ECC and knowledge generated as sliders
Move items forward or back in the prioritization
12
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Example: architecture
Consider a feature that:
implications
Does not have an exceptionally high
ECC
knowledge
Based on ECC, feature does not slide
backward
Based on knowledge generated,
feature does slide forward
13
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Some examples
We’ve used this to support early selection of:
A particular application server
Features to test designs for a security framework
interface design
We’ve used this to defer decisions with high
ECC that generate little new knowledge
Choosing among three client technologies
14
Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC
Conclusions
More useful than advice to prioritize on “business
value”
Instructing product owners to
consider relative changes in Expected Cost of Change (ECC)
leads to better decisions
Guideline-based approach is easy
Keeps focus on “what one thing should we do next” rather
than “what is full set of priorities”
More iterative approach to prioritizing acknowledges
15

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Incorporating Learning and Expected Cost of Change

  • 1. R. Scott Harris1 and Mike Cohn2 1Montana State University–Billings 2Mountain Goat Software Incorporating Learning and Expected Cost of Change in Prioritizing Features on Agile Projects 1
  • 2. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Business value Usual advice to product owners is to prioritize based on “business value” But what is business value? Putting the competition out of business? Lowering delivery cost? Increasing short term revenue? 2
  • 3. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Telling a product owner to “prioritize on business value” offers as much guidance as the president of General Motors ordering a lathe operator to “maximize 3
  • 4. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Traditional advice Saaty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process is often considered “the most promising approach” Involves pairwise comparison of all features Perhaps feasible once at the start of a project Assumes perfect knowledge Agile projects incorporate and acknowledge learning and feedback Not feasible every iteration on an agile project 4
  • 5. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC 1.Defer features with high expected costs of change 2.Bring forward features that generate useful knowledge 3.Incorporate new learning often, but only to decide what to do next Three guidelines 5
  • 6. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Expected Cost of Change = ECC Guideline 1 Defer features with high expected costs of change ECC = (probability of change) × (cost of change) Overall expected cost can be lowered if features that are likely or costly to change are deferred We’ll know more later so deferring these means we’re more likely to get them right 6
  • 7. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Expected Cost of Change Time ECC ECC0 ECC1 ECC2 7
  • 8. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC An implication Because of this we want to: Prioritize activities that have the greatest impact on lowering the ECC curve This leads to: Guideline 2 Bring forward features that generate useful knowledge 8
  • 9. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Useful knowledge Comes in a variety of forms About the desirability of a feature About the usability of a feature About the technical feasibility of a feature Useful knowledge is knowledge that will affect prioritization of subsequent features Product owner asks herself,“If this feature had been implemented already, would I do anything differently?” 9
  • 10. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Guideline 3 Incorporate new learning often, but only to decide what to do next Learning is a continuous process Agile projects acknowledge that all learning cannot be put upfront (as sequential projects try) “Now” vs.“Not Now” Those not done “Now” are reevaluated next iteration Supports agile preference for short iterations 10
  • 11. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Release plans still necessary Release plans are still useful and often necessary Help establish a vision for where a project wants to end up But should not detail iteration by iteration sequencing details 11
  • 12. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Practical application Our advice to clients: Perform rough, initial prioritization based on the “business value” of each feature Don’t bother prioritizing beyond the next 1-3 iterations Think of ECC and knowledge generated as sliders Move items forward or back in the prioritization 12
  • 13. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Example: architecture Consider a feature that: implications Does not have an exceptionally high ECC knowledge Based on ECC, feature does not slide backward Based on knowledge generated, feature does slide forward 13
  • 14. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Some examples We’ve used this to support early selection of: A particular application server Features to test designs for a security framework interface design We’ve used this to defer decisions with high ECC that generate little new knowledge Choosing among three client technologies 14
  • 15. Copyright Mountain Goat Software, LLC Conclusions More useful than advice to prioritize on “business value” Instructing product owners to consider relative changes in Expected Cost of Change (ECC) leads to better decisions Guideline-based approach is easy Keeps focus on “what one thing should we do next” rather than “what is full set of priorities” More iterative approach to prioritizing acknowledges 15