This document summarizes a presentation on strategic foresight and its applications. It discusses how foresight can help governments and organizations plan more effectively for an uncertain future by considering multiple scenarios. The presentation provides examples of how foresight has been used in Rwanda to inform national development planning and policymaking. Key lessons highlighted include how foresight promotes inclusion, resilience, and partnerships. The document concludes by emphasizing how foresight can help countries achieve sustainable development goals by allowing for more comprehensive and realistic planning.

1. scenario analysis and planning workshop,
Addis Ababa, Oct 6-7 2016
By: Marc Lepage
UNDP Africa innovation advisor
@marclepage
Foresight for the 21st century
La prospective pour le XXIème siècle

2. agenda
• Introduction to Foresight
• Foresight use cases
• Foresight use in Africa: the case of Rwanda
• Lessons learnt
• Conclusion

3. Helen Clark says…While
current approaches keep us
looking down at our plans
and files, restricting our
ability to see and adapt, a
foresight practitioner would
be looking up, scanning the
horizon for potential
disruptions, sensing changes,
and adapting the next move
to leverage new potential or
to address risks.
Why strategic foresight Approach?

4. Complexity…

5. Simple v Complicated v Complex

6. Global Interdependency

7. 1992
2007
TechnologicalChange

8. 20xx…
Artificial Intelligence Holographic communication
Robotics Intelligence augmentation
Synthetic biology &
genomics
Collective intelligence
Computational science 3D/4D printing of material
& biology
Cloud & big data analysis Drones, driverless cars
Artificial & augmented
reality
Conscious technology
Nanotechnology Quantum computing
IoT, the semantic web Merging among these

9. definition
Governments need practical tools and
‘space’ to experiment, learn and adapt in
order to deal with the challenges of SDGs
implementation in the volatile reality of the
21st century.
Foresight is the umbrella term for those
innovative strategic planning, policy
formulation and solution design methods
that don’t predict or forecast the future, but
work with alternative futures.

10. In short, foresight is..
The ability to
imagine what is
likely to happen
and to consider
this when
planning for the
future.

11. Foresight complements traditional planning
Foresight in strategic planning practice responds to the shortcomings of
traditional planning practices that largely deal with:
 predictable, gradually unfolding, unambiguous change
 but are less suitable for capturing the complexity interaction and
independency of, for e.g.
- climate change,
- urbanisation ,
- technological development,
- global economic financial and political instability
- Natural resources scarcity
• Thus, Government agencies may be ignorant of subtle but significant
shifts in their environment that have long tem effects of their strategic
decision.

12. Strategic Foresight

13. Why strategic foresight Approach?
• Foresight approach create
multiple “futures.”
• Thus expect, and even capitalize
on complex challenges;
• strategies and policies are less
vulnerable and more resilient to
unintended and unexpected risks;
• Excellent method to engage
citizens

14. Strategic Foresight
Foresight promotes resilience, agility and responsiveness through
1. Identifying, exploring and rehearsing risks and opportunities that lie ahead
2. Considering and planning for alternative future/scenarios
3. Expecting, anticipating and capitalizing on change
4. Deepening organisational adaptability and responsiveness skills
5. Creating inclusive platforms for shared vision
6. Bestowing the ‘future’ a place at the decision table

15. agenda
• Introduction to Foresight
• Foresight use cases
• Foresight use in Africa: the case of Rwanda
• Lessons learnt
• Conclusion

16. 1. Visioning Processes (national development strategies,
organisational vision, the World We Want, etc.)
2. Strategic Management and Policy Coherence (The Future
of…, policy coordination, whole-of-government, etc.)
3. Adaptive and Resilient Planning (scenario planning,
backcasting, stress testing, etc.)
4. Public Service Innovation (creative means to explore the
interaction of key trends in alternative futures)
4 Applications of foresight

17. Applied Foresight:
• On and over-the-horizon scanning, trend spotting
• Exploring alternative futures
• Developing alternative scenarios
• Testing the relevance and resilience of existing strategies
• Designing adaptive (‘what-if’) policies
• Constantly keeping a finger on the pulse
• Foresight  Insight  Action

18. Foresight in UNDAF process
By reflecting on alternative futures, foresight addresses the
traditional challenges of the UNDAF as follows:
1. Foresight is inclusive of direct partners and stakeholders:
by bringing together the views of all stakeholders,
foresight facilitates holistic development planning
2. Difficulty to plan for humanitarian response: through
humanitarian crisis can not be fully predicted and
addressed in planning, the foresight red flags/wild cards
(economic, social, cultural, environmental, etc) ensures
more resilient and comprehensive planning;
3. Foresight promotes the wellbeing of the people without
ignoring the rest: land, water, air, etc

19. Foresight in UNDAF process
• Foresight tackles the limitation of data
and GDP which are considered only as
inputs not basis of planning;
• Foresight help in moving from a dream to
an implementable vision

20. Foresight for the SDGs
four major areas where foresight can make an
important contribution to the work of public
bureaucracies in SDGs implementation:
1. Alignment of Development Visions
2. Anticipatory Governance and Strategic
Management
3. Resilient Policy Planning
4. Policy and Public Services Innovation

21. Foresight in public service
Towards an Innovative
Civil Service in Mauritius

22. Foresight for
peace
22

23. agenda
• Introduction to Foresight
• Foresight use cases
• Foresight use in Africa: the case of Rwanda
• Lessons learnt
• Conclusion

24. Before Rwanda: remember the
Mont fleur scenarios?
24

25. The Rwandan experience
Initiated through a partnership between:
 The Rwanda Governance Board- RGB (lead organization)
 UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence in
Singapore (GCPSE)
 UNDP Innovation Facility
 and UNDP Rwanda

26. Rwanda Foresight Initiative: 4 phases
1. Institutionalisation: RGB institutionalized foresight by
establishing a program called " Rwanda Foresight
Initiative“ which coordinates all the foresight
activities.
2. Capacity building: RGB engaged in capacity building of
national institutions and leaders so as to integrate
foresight into their planning processes.
Groups trained so far: senior central government officials, all
members of Parliament, all governors; representatives of the CSO,
academia and the private sector.

27. Rwanda Foresight Initiative: 4 phases
3. Knowledge and evidence generation: to inform
foresight processes. The main tool is the Rwanda
Governance Scorecard (RGS) which is an
innovative tool of assessing progress in
governance and government service delivery,
using 8 key indicators. This tool is build on citizen
perception surveys such as the citizen report card
as well as expert research and administrative data

28. Rwanda Foresight Initiative: 4 phases
4. Mainstreaming: Under this initiative foresight will be
mainstreamed to all areas. So far, foresight was applied to
urbanisation for the establishment of 6 secondary cities planned
for in the national development plan. One working session took
place so far and five are in the pipeline.
Foresight is expected to drive governance for production and
impact local economic development.
Comparative advantage: RGB produces regularly applied
governance research (RGS, CRC, etc) which content informs the
mainstreaming of foresight.

29. agenda
• Introduction to Foresight
• Foresight use cases
• Foresight use in Africa: the case of Rwanda
• Lessons learnt
• Conclusion

30. Lessons learnt
• Foresight transforms a roadmap into an inclusive process where
all stakeholders are defining the future they want in a realistic
manner
• Foresight bridges the gap between development and
humanitarian assistance allowing holistic planning by the UNCT
and stakeholders
• Foresight promotes the UN DaO principle as all actors are actively
involved in the development of the vision thus setting the basis
for ownership

31. Lessons learnt
• Foresight set the ground for partnership with and beyond fund
with the government, think tank institutions, the academia,
capacity building institutions, donor agencies, etc

32. agenda
• Introduction to Foresight
• Foresight use cases
• Foresight use in Africa: the case of Rwanda
• Lessons learnt
• Conclusion

33. CONCLUSION
• Foresight is an appropriate tool for planning as it
values the local and current context and remains
realistic about the future;
• As countries embark on the domestication process of
SDGs, foresight is a tool for efficient and
comprehensive domestication of an apparently
ambitious but indivisible global development agenda
• Foresight provides the link between the
recommended UN’s upstream and strategic support
and the government driven-development process
• Foresight comes in addition to other tools within the
SDG MAPS approach

34. References
• Foresight for development
• Institute for the future
• Strategic foresight group
• Global foresight community
• Futurescaper
• Metafuture
• The Millennium project
• African Futures
• UNDP global center for public service excellence (GCPSE)
• GCPSE foresight manual
• Mauritius ForesightXchange
• The development of foresight in Rwanda

35. THANK YOU!
marc.lepage@undp.org
The purpose of designing futures scenarios is to make more informed
choices in the present.
Futures thinking is ultimately about inquiry into probable, possible and
preferable futures, which we are creating today.