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Future of technology

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presentation given at the Asia Pacific Futures Network conference in Bangkok, Sep 17, 2019

Publié dans : Technologie
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Future of technology

  1. 1. 1 Marc Lepage, Asian Development Bank @marclepage Asia Pacific Futures Network conference Bangkok, September 17, 2019 The future of technology
  2. 2. 22 The future of technology • Current state • Future state • Preparing • So what? Warning / Disclaimers: 1. exponential graphs will be shown in this presentation 2. and pictures of robots 3. and screenshots of sci-fi movies. 4. The opinions expressed here are those of its author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of ADB the future is already here – it's just not evenly distributed -- William Gibson
  3. 3. 33 Let’s go back in time
  4. 4. 44 Future tech and movies
  5. 5. 55 Upcoming changes 2020 • Flying car and AI based medical diagnostics & therapy 2024 • First private human Mars mission 2026 • Robots are commonplace • 10,000,000 daily drones 2028 • Robots will have real relationship with people 2032 • Robots are common in offices 2034 • Cancer and poverty are solved • Robots act as maids, butlers, nurses, and nannies 2036 • Longevity treatments
  6. 6. 6
  7. 7. 77 Current and soon to be present: bio tech
  8. 8. 88 Current and soon to be present: Neuro tech
  9. 9. 99 Current and soon to be present: Green tech
  10. 10. 1010 Current and soon to be present: digital tech
  11. 11. 1111 General purpose technologies
  12. 12. 1212 acceleration? What acceleration?
  13. 13. 1313 Future of technology We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. — Vernor Vinge
  14. 14. 1414 Nanotechnology “I’m gonna have to shrink between the molecules to get in there.” -- Ant-man
  15. 15. 1515 Nano satellites 1. Cheap and convenient 2. They will help the space programs of developing countries. 3. They are closely integrated with modern, advanced technology. 4. Unique benefits: • pass over a specific geographic area more frequently big-satellites (rapid response to disaster, improved telemedicine, environment management) • Low cost allows for new applications of satellites not previously possible (internet coverage)
  16. 16. 1616 AR/VR/XR
  17. 17. 1717 Holoportation
  18. 18. 1818 Digitizing the physical world
  19. 19. 1919 Robot priest
  20. 20. 2020 Supercreativity
  21. 21. 2121 Leveraging real-world data to address mental health issues globally
  22. 22. 2222 Human cyborgs are coming Meet Anastasia Synn, cyborg magician Spoiler alert: she’s got 26 bodily implants, including microchips and magnets
  23. 23. 2323 Robotic furniture
  24. 24. 2424 Deep fakes
  25. 25. 2525 Self-writing, Self Updating Knowledge database
  26. 26. 2626
  27. 27. 2727 Describing level of automations - cars
  28. 28. 2828 (current state of ) AI
  29. 29. 2929 Let’s demystify (current state of ) AI Two children, Chloe and Alexander, went for a walk. They both saw a dog and a tree. Alexander also saw a cat and pointed it out to Chloe. She went to pet the cat. “Who went for a walk?” “Did Chloe see the cat?” “Was Chloe frightened by the cat?”
  30. 30. 3030
  31. 31. 3131 Quantum computing Potential applications: • Molecular modeling • Cryptography • Climate change modeling • Deign of new materials • Quantum speedups in optimization: • Machine learning • Verification and validation • Supply chain and logistics • finance “the battle over quantum computing is “an arms race” as important as AI or virtual and augmented reality, though it has largely gone unnoticed” -- Satya Nadella, Microsoft CEO
  32. 32. 3232 Hype cycle Anti-Hype: Global Solar Power Market
  33. 33. 3333 Emerging trends # 1 | Sensing and Mobility # 2 | Augmented Human # 3 | Postclassical Compute and Comms # 4 | Digital Ecosystems # 5 | Advanced AI and Analytics
  34. 34. 3434 Human progress
  35. 35. 3535 Prototyping the future Mūtō Labs is a new kind of investment and asset management platform. They are inventing, and innovating, in areas such as roboadvisory, big data, and blockchains, and are reinventing the notion of value. Their platform presents a whole new branch of ‘tertiary’ assets to the marketplace. From genetic information, to time, data, skills, knowledge, social and civic bonds, Mūtō Labs is giving people the opportunity to invest a new wave of non- monetary alternative assets. Mūtō Labs is the vanguard of a brand new culture of exchange within society.
  36. 36. 3636 Say what? My genetic data is traded? Mūtō Labs is not a real company. It was unveiled at the FundForum International 2016 finance exposition in Berlin. The fictional company received numerous “investment” offers alongside live data from over 220 interactions. It was a small glimpse into a future that felt immediate, yet full of tensions. Mūtō Labs was an experiential intervention to demonstrate in a tangible way prototypes of multiple possible futures around finance and asset management.
  37. 37. 3737 Exploring the Unknown 37 “Innovation happens when we know the unknown.” What we don’t know that we know: Technologies we can understand but are not fully aware of their uses in the ADB (e.g., big data) Horizon 2: Low hanging fruit What we don’t know that we don’t know: Technologies we are not aware of nor fully understand/use Horizon 3: High risk, high impact What we know we know: Things we are aware of and understand (e.g., ERP) Horizon 1: Sandbox program doesn’t apply What we know we don’t know: Technologies we are aware of but don’t fully understand/use (e.g., bots) Horizon 2: Low hanging fruit Known Unknown Known Unknown Modified Rumsfeld Matrix ADB Products and Services
  38. 38. 3838 Digital Innovation Sandbox Program Positioning 38 H O R I Z O N 3 H O R I Z O N 2 H O R I Z O N 1 Digital Partnerships and Platforms Innovation Sandboxes IT Strategy and Enterprise Architecture Operations, Administration, Financial Services (e.g., Robotics for Supporting Reconciliation) Business Optimization (Modernizing) Digital Transformation (Future Proofing) ADB Digital Products and Services (e.g., Trade Finance Platform) Core Digitalization (Keeping the lights on) Existing IT services Mature Technology Emerging Technology Future Technology An attempt at future proofing an organization – ADB sandbox
  39. 39. 3939 The future will be • hyper personalized • data driven • immersive • in space • full of robots • autonomous
  40. 40. 4040 So what? Technology used to support development and civilization, that were driven by politics and economy Technology is / builds civilization: it has swallowed politics and economy (or is largely about to)
  41. 41. 4141 Futures thinking and tech – some careful recommendations • Experiment (a la sandbox) • Create thought experiments • Watch/read sci-fi • See beyond tech
  42. 42. 42 mlepage@adb.org @marclepage THANKS ! Plan for the future because that's where you are going to spend the rest of your life -- Mark Twain