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Keller Williams Research



        This Month in Real Estate
         Released: July 16, 2009


                           Commentary……………………………………. 2

                           The Numbers That Drive Real Estate………… 4

                           Recent Government Action……………………. 10
                           Research for Buyers and Sellers………………. 15




                                                                      1
Green Shoots of Recovery

This month offers a lot of encouraging news for the U.S. housing market.
Home sales have now shown a steady increase for four consecutive
months. Housing inventory has decreased and home prices have edged
up compared to last month.

Many economists still cite a recovery in real estate as key to economic
stability—bringing more jobs, growth, higher income opportunities, and
stronger, more stable tax revenues. The banking sector looks to stand on
firmer footing as institutions begin repaying TARP funds. Yet the credit
market remains tight, which presents challenges for mortgage applicants.
Any sustained rebound will likely be tied to better credit availability for
aspiring homebuyers.



                                                                KW Research 2
Green Shoots of Recovery

Consumer spending has slowed as consumers readjust their personal
balance sheets and increase their savings. And in the past month the U.S.
savings rate has actually moved above the Canadian rate. While their
saved money is not directly benefitting the economy today, restored
financial health will improve conditions for sustainable spending in the
future.

Given firmer stability in the housing and financials sectors as well as a
shift to consumer saving, the overall economy appears to be on a slow
track to improvement. While any signs of progress must be weighed
against the potential road bumps ahead, sustained economic recovery
over the next year is expected to come in piecemeal fashion. Some
uncertainty factors include unemployment numbers, rising mortgage
rates, and new appraisal rules.

                                                                 KW Research 3
Keller Williams Research



 The Numbers That Drive Real Estate




                                      4
Home Sales
                In Thousands
 Sales of existing homes trended upward for the fourth straight month,
 benefiting from favorable affordability conditions. The $8,000 tax credit
 continued to draw in first-time buyers, who accounted for 29% of all
 transactions in May. Repeat buyers, who often sell their current house
 to first time buyers, are also coming back to the market in large
 numbers.
                                                                                     Up 9% from
                504       504
                                489
                                                                                     last month
                                           438
          483                                    413
                                                                                              451
                                                             361                      413
                                                       322
                                                                               357
                                                                         280
                                                                   257
                      Actual Home Sales


        May Jun          Jul    Aug        Sep Oct     Nov   Dec   Jan   Feb   Mar Apr May
Latest data release: June 23, 2009
                                                                                            KW Research 5
Source: National Association of Realtors
Median Home Price
 In Thousands
 Existing-home price was $173,000, up 3.8% from last month but still
 down 16.8% from the same time last year. Distressed sales, which
 accounted for a smaller 33% of sales in May, continued to weigh down
 the median price, as these properties are generally sold at a larger
 discount relative to traditional sales. However, the seasonal rise in
 number of repeat buyers who are generally spread across all price
 ranges helped to partially offset the downward pressures.




            $208    $215   $210      $203   $191   $186   $180   $176   $165   $168   $170   $167   $173

            May Jun         Jul      Aug    Sep    Oct    Nov    Dec    Jan    Feb Mar Apr May
Latest data release: June 23, 2009
                                                                                                KW Research 6
Source: National Association of Realtors
Inventory - In Millions
Number of homes available for sale

 Housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5% to 3.8 million,
 representing a 9.6-month supply at the current pace of sale, down from
 a 10.1-month supply in April. While sales have steadily increased over
 the past four months and pending home sales indicated even stronger
 activity, some poor appraisals are stalling transactions as faulty
 valuations inhibit buyers from securing financing.
                         4.6
                4.5

         4.5                    4.3        4.3
                                                 4.2   4.2


      Number of Homes Available for Sale                                              3.9
                 (in Millions)                                            3.8
                                                             3.7                                3.8
                                                                    3.6

                                                                                3.6
        May Jun         Jul     Aug    Sep Oct         Nov   Dec   Jan    Feb   Mar Apr May

Latest data release: June 23, 2009
                                                                                            KW Research 7
Source: National Association of Realtors
Mortgage Rates
 30-Year Fixed
 Mortgage rates are settling back down after spiking in recent weeks
 following rising yields on long-term government debt, which are closely
 tied to mortgages rates, amid concerns over the government’s deficit
 spending and inflationary pressure. Average rates for 30-year
 mortgages fell for the second straight week to the lowest level in six
 weeks on weak employment figures and declining home values in
 many markets.                                                5.59%
                                                                                                                      5.42%

                          5.25%                                                                    5.29%                      5.32%
                                  5.16%                                                                           5.38%
                5.12%                             5.15%
                                          5.07%                                                                               5.20%
       5.01%                                               4.98%
                        5.10%                                        4.87%                     4.82%
                                    5.04%          5.03%                      4.80% 4.84%
              4.96%                                                                                    4.91%
                                                           4.85%           4.82%           4.86%
                                                                   4.78%           4.78%


                                            Average Weekly Mortgage Rates
        1/8

                 1/22

                           2/5

                                     2/19

                                                  3/5

                                                           3/19

                                                                   4/2

                                                                           4/16

                                                                                   4/30

                                                                                            5/14

                                                                                                   5/28

                                                                                                               6/11

                                                                                                                      6/25

                                                                                                                              7/9
Source: Freddie Mac                                                                                                       KW Research 8
Affordability - % of Income
 The percentage of a median family’s income required to make mortgage payments on a median-priced home

 Housing affordability condition remained extremely favorable for home
 buyers. The median mortgage payment now consumes 15% of family
 income instead of 19% a year ago. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR
 chief economist, “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew
 buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with
 a recent uptick in rates.”

       % of Income Required for Mortgage Payments on a Median-Priced Home




        21%       19%       20%       19%      20%      22%       25%         23%    19%    15%

        2000      2001      2002      2003    2004      2005      2006        2007   2008   2009
Affordability as of May every year. Calculations assume a 20% down payment.
                                                                                            KW Research 9
Source: National Association of Realtors
Recent Government Action




                           KW Research 10
Fed Maintains Support for Economy
June 2009

                         In its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the current
                         record low interest rate. In a notably more positive report,
                         the Fed sites signs of improvement but qualifies that the storm
                         is not over yet.

                     The interest rate roller-coastered over the past few weeks prompting
 suspicion of further action by the Fed to stabilize rates. Walking the tightrope between
 the need for stimulus and the future potential for inflation, the Fed renewed its
 commitment to purchase $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities by the end of the
 year rather than taking additional measures.

 Since the Fed began purchasing these securities last fall, the interest rate on
 mortgages has fallen to historically low levels. Although they have recently resurfaced
 from below the 5% range, rates remain at exceptionally advantageous levels and are
 expected to stay low from the Fed’s purchase of additional securities.

 Important to note is that mortgage rates are closely tied to long-term treasury securities,
 which are on the rise from the mounting level of U.S. debt. These rates will likely rise as
 the level of government debt and spending rise.


Source: federalreserve.gov                                                    KW Research 11
Key Modification to Loan Modification Program
July 2009

                           Announced July 1, the Making Home Affordable
                           Program will now allow homeowners who are up to
                           125% underwater to refinance their mortgage.
                           Under the program, the previous limit was 105%.
                           The industry norm requires at least 20% home
                           equity to refinance.

 The bulk of the program’s initial criticism was that the administration did not
 provide enough support for the millions of homeowners who owed significantly
 more on their mortgages than their home is currently worth. With more than one
 in five homes underwater and home values in the hardest-hit areas dropping by
 up to 50%, this is a much-needed and welcomed change.

 This program applies only to those mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie
 Mac, representing half of all outstanding mortgages in the country.




Source: CNNMoney.com                                                KW Research 12
Transferred Employees Face Obstacle
June 2009

                         Fannie Mae recently changed its policy concerning job
                         transfers. For some time, Fannie Mae considered the
                         income of a transferred employee’s spouse to qualify the
                         couple for a larger mortgage even if they had not yet found a
                         job. Given the tough job market, Fannie Mae has changed
                         this policy so that income from a “trailing spouse” will not be
                         considered in loan qualification unless a job has been
                         secured and income has been verified.

                         This may mean that transferred families might need to rent
                         until a second job is found or purchase a less expensive
                         house. However, this prudent policy change should help
                         build a more solid system of secure loans, promoting a
                         healthy housing market and a sound financial sector.

                         Freddie Mac still considers a portion of income from the
                         “trailing spouse” in the qualification process.

Source: The Washington Post                                              KW Research 13
FHA Plans to Expand Capacity
          June 2009

 Over the past three years, the percentage of FHA-backed loans has
 skyrocketed from 2% to 24% of all mortgages today.

 To cope with the rapid expansion, FHA has requested authority to
 provide $400 billion in additional FHA
 insurance. This is anticipated to allow
 2.25 million additional mortgages to
 be endorsed by HUD.

 Given additional funds, FHA will be
 able to keep up with the dramatically
 increasing demand, and consumers
 should continue to have access to
 FHA loans.



Source: hud.gov                                             KW Research 14
Research for Buyers and Sellers




                             KW Research 15
Credit Scores: Decoded
                     How are credit scores determined?
In a market restricted by tightened lending standards, a solid credit score has
played a much larger role in mortgage qualification than in recent years past.

                                                            Types of
                                                             Credit,
What components determine your FICO score?                      10%
                                                     New Credit,
    1. Payment History                                  10%                  Payment
    2. Amounts Owed                                                        History, 35%
                                                    Length of
    3. Length of Credit History                   Credit History,
    4. New Credit                                      15%

    5. Types of Credit
                                                                     Amounts
                                                                    Owed, 30%



                                            Breakdown of the importance is for a typical consumer.

                                            *These percentages vary based on credit profiles.
Source: myfico.com                                                              KW Research 16
Tips From myFICO.com on Credit Scores
          Important information to be aware of about credit scores:
§     Don’t be afraid to shop around for the best rate. Multiple
      inquiries about the same type of loan only count as one
      request if done within a short amount of time.
§     During the process of qualifying for and obtaining a mortgage,
      play it safe and wait until after your contract has closed and
      the mortgage is secured to open new credit.

§     Checking your own credit score will not harm your score if you
      order reports directly through the credit-reporting companies.
§     If you don’t have a long history of credit, don’t open
      too many cards too quickly. This can lower the
      average “account age.”
§     Don’t open or close credit as a short-term strategy
      for improving credit. Open what you need, when
      you need it. Pay your bills on time.

For more, check out: http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/ImproveYourScore.aspx

    Source: myfico.com                                                             KW Research 17
Impress Buyers in a Flash
          Crunched for time? Tips to prepare for buyers in a hurry!
In a competitive market, having a home in the best possible condition can help
attract buyers. A clean and clutter-free home often gives the impression of a
well-kept home. When pressed for time, hitting these high notes can help leave a
positive impression with buyers in twenty minutes or less.

      -    Kitchen: wipe down counters and fixtures with baby wipes; put away
           toaster, coffee maker, and can opener; empty garbage.
      -    Bathrooms: wipe down vanity and fixtures with baby wipes; wipe
           the mirror down with Windex; hide the garbage; put out fresh towels.
      -    Floors: vacuum all carpet; mop tile and wood.
      -    Furniture: run a dusting cloth over furniture.
      -    Clutter: pick up and conceal all clutter. Place in a bag,
           and tuck away in a closet or garage.

For more tips on staging and preparing to impress buyers, check out
www.getreadygetsetgetsold.com.

Source: getreadygetsetgetsold.com                                      KW Research 18
Your Local Market

Although it is important to stay informed about what is going on in the
national economy and housing market, many different factors impact the real
estate market in your area.


     Talk to your Keller Williams agent for assistance
     interpreting the conditions in your local market.


Keller Williams associates are equipped with all the knowledge and
information to help navigate you through the process of buying or selling a
home in this challenging market.



                                                                   KW Research 19
About Keller Williams Realty
  Founded in 1983, Keller Williams Realty, Inc., is an international real estate
  company with more than 74,175 associates and 693 offices located across the
  United States and Canada. The company began franchising in 1991, and
  following years of phenomenal growth and success, became the third-largest U.S.
  residential real estate firm in 2009.
  The company has succeeded by treating its associates as partners and shares its
  knowledge, policy control, and company profits on a system-wide basis.
  Focusing on helping associates realize their fullest potential, Keller Williams
  Realty is known as an industry leader in its family culture, unmatched education,
  profit sharing business model, phenomenal coaching program, and technology
  offerings. The company provides associates with all the tools needed to grow and
  thrive in today’s market.




 www.kw.com
                                                                    KW Research 20

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This Month in Real Estate for US Market July 2009

  • 1. Keller Williams Research This Month in Real Estate Released: July 16, 2009 Commentary……………………………………. 2 The Numbers That Drive Real Estate………… 4 Recent Government Action……………………. 10 Research for Buyers and Sellers………………. 15 1
  • 2. Green Shoots of Recovery This month offers a lot of encouraging news for the U.S. housing market. Home sales have now shown a steady increase for four consecutive months. Housing inventory has decreased and home prices have edged up compared to last month. Many economists still cite a recovery in real estate as key to economic stability—bringing more jobs, growth, higher income opportunities, and stronger, more stable tax revenues. The banking sector looks to stand on firmer footing as institutions begin repaying TARP funds. Yet the credit market remains tight, which presents challenges for mortgage applicants. Any sustained rebound will likely be tied to better credit availability for aspiring homebuyers. KW Research 2
  • 3. Green Shoots of Recovery Consumer spending has slowed as consumers readjust their personal balance sheets and increase their savings. And in the past month the U.S. savings rate has actually moved above the Canadian rate. While their saved money is not directly benefitting the economy today, restored financial health will improve conditions for sustainable spending in the future. Given firmer stability in the housing and financials sectors as well as a shift to consumer saving, the overall economy appears to be on a slow track to improvement. While any signs of progress must be weighed against the potential road bumps ahead, sustained economic recovery over the next year is expected to come in piecemeal fashion. Some uncertainty factors include unemployment numbers, rising mortgage rates, and new appraisal rules. KW Research 3
  • 4. Keller Williams Research The Numbers That Drive Real Estate 4
  • 5. Home Sales In Thousands Sales of existing homes trended upward for the fourth straight month, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions. The $8,000 tax credit continued to draw in first-time buyers, who accounted for 29% of all transactions in May. Repeat buyers, who often sell their current house to first time buyers, are also coming back to the market in large numbers. Up 9% from 504 504 489 last month 438 483 413 451 361 413 322 357 280 257 Actual Home Sales May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Latest data release: June 23, 2009 KW Research 5 Source: National Association of Realtors
  • 6. Median Home Price In Thousands Existing-home price was $173,000, up 3.8% from last month but still down 16.8% from the same time last year. Distressed sales, which accounted for a smaller 33% of sales in May, continued to weigh down the median price, as these properties are generally sold at a larger discount relative to traditional sales. However, the seasonal rise in number of repeat buyers who are generally spread across all price ranges helped to partially offset the downward pressures. $208 $215 $210 $203 $191 $186 $180 $176 $165 $168 $170 $167 $173 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Latest data release: June 23, 2009 KW Research 6 Source: National Association of Realtors
  • 7. Inventory - In Millions Number of homes available for sale Housing inventory at the end of May fell 3.5% to 3.8 million, representing a 9.6-month supply at the current pace of sale, down from a 10.1-month supply in April. While sales have steadily increased over the past four months and pending home sales indicated even stronger activity, some poor appraisals are stalling transactions as faulty valuations inhibit buyers from securing financing. 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 Number of Homes Available for Sale 3.9 (in Millions) 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.6 3.6 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Latest data release: June 23, 2009 KW Research 7 Source: National Association of Realtors
  • 8. Mortgage Rates 30-Year Fixed Mortgage rates are settling back down after spiking in recent weeks following rising yields on long-term government debt, which are closely tied to mortgages rates, amid concerns over the government’s deficit spending and inflationary pressure. Average rates for 30-year mortgages fell for the second straight week to the lowest level in six weeks on weak employment figures and declining home values in many markets. 5.59% 5.42% 5.25% 5.29% 5.32% 5.16% 5.38% 5.12% 5.15% 5.07% 5.20% 5.01% 4.98% 5.10% 4.87% 4.82% 5.04% 5.03% 4.80% 4.84% 4.96% 4.91% 4.85% 4.82% 4.86% 4.78% 4.78% Average Weekly Mortgage Rates 1/8 1/22 2/5 2/19 3/5 3/19 4/2 4/16 4/30 5/14 5/28 6/11 6/25 7/9 Source: Freddie Mac KW Research 8
  • 9. Affordability - % of Income The percentage of a median family’s income required to make mortgage payments on a median-priced home Housing affordability condition remained extremely favorable for home buyers. The median mortgage payment now consumes 15% of family income instead of 19% a year ago. According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, “Historically low mortgage interest rates clearly drew buyers into the market, and housing remains very affordable even with a recent uptick in rates.” % of Income Required for Mortgage Payments on a Median-Priced Home 21% 19% 20% 19% 20% 22% 25% 23% 19% 15% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Affordability as of May every year. Calculations assume a 20% down payment. KW Research 9 Source: National Association of Realtors
  • 10. Recent Government Action KW Research 10
  • 11. Fed Maintains Support for Economy June 2009 In its last meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the current record low interest rate. In a notably more positive report, the Fed sites signs of improvement but qualifies that the storm is not over yet. The interest rate roller-coastered over the past few weeks prompting suspicion of further action by the Fed to stabilize rates. Walking the tightrope between the need for stimulus and the future potential for inflation, the Fed renewed its commitment to purchase $1.2 trillion in mortgage-backed securities by the end of the year rather than taking additional measures. Since the Fed began purchasing these securities last fall, the interest rate on mortgages has fallen to historically low levels. Although they have recently resurfaced from below the 5% range, rates remain at exceptionally advantageous levels and are expected to stay low from the Fed’s purchase of additional securities. Important to note is that mortgage rates are closely tied to long-term treasury securities, which are on the rise from the mounting level of U.S. debt. These rates will likely rise as the level of government debt and spending rise. Source: federalreserve.gov KW Research 11
  • 12. Key Modification to Loan Modification Program July 2009 Announced July 1, the Making Home Affordable Program will now allow homeowners who are up to 125% underwater to refinance their mortgage. Under the program, the previous limit was 105%. The industry norm requires at least 20% home equity to refinance. The bulk of the program’s initial criticism was that the administration did not provide enough support for the millions of homeowners who owed significantly more on their mortgages than their home is currently worth. With more than one in five homes underwater and home values in the hardest-hit areas dropping by up to 50%, this is a much-needed and welcomed change. This program applies only to those mortgages held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, representing half of all outstanding mortgages in the country. Source: CNNMoney.com KW Research 12
  • 13. Transferred Employees Face Obstacle June 2009 Fannie Mae recently changed its policy concerning job transfers. For some time, Fannie Mae considered the income of a transferred employee’s spouse to qualify the couple for a larger mortgage even if they had not yet found a job. Given the tough job market, Fannie Mae has changed this policy so that income from a “trailing spouse” will not be considered in loan qualification unless a job has been secured and income has been verified. This may mean that transferred families might need to rent until a second job is found or purchase a less expensive house. However, this prudent policy change should help build a more solid system of secure loans, promoting a healthy housing market and a sound financial sector. Freddie Mac still considers a portion of income from the “trailing spouse” in the qualification process. Source: The Washington Post KW Research 13
  • 14. FHA Plans to Expand Capacity June 2009 Over the past three years, the percentage of FHA-backed loans has skyrocketed from 2% to 24% of all mortgages today. To cope with the rapid expansion, FHA has requested authority to provide $400 billion in additional FHA insurance. This is anticipated to allow 2.25 million additional mortgages to be endorsed by HUD. Given additional funds, FHA will be able to keep up with the dramatically increasing demand, and consumers should continue to have access to FHA loans. Source: hud.gov KW Research 14
  • 15. Research for Buyers and Sellers KW Research 15
  • 16. Credit Scores: Decoded How are credit scores determined? In a market restricted by tightened lending standards, a solid credit score has played a much larger role in mortgage qualification than in recent years past. Types of Credit, What components determine your FICO score? 10% New Credit, 1. Payment History 10% Payment 2. Amounts Owed History, 35% Length of 3. Length of Credit History Credit History, 4. New Credit 15% 5. Types of Credit Amounts Owed, 30% Breakdown of the importance is for a typical consumer. *These percentages vary based on credit profiles. Source: myfico.com KW Research 16
  • 17. Tips From myFICO.com on Credit Scores Important information to be aware of about credit scores: § Don’t be afraid to shop around for the best rate. Multiple inquiries about the same type of loan only count as one request if done within a short amount of time. § During the process of qualifying for and obtaining a mortgage, play it safe and wait until after your contract has closed and the mortgage is secured to open new credit. § Checking your own credit score will not harm your score if you order reports directly through the credit-reporting companies. § If you don’t have a long history of credit, don’t open too many cards too quickly. This can lower the average “account age.” § Don’t open or close credit as a short-term strategy for improving credit. Open what you need, when you need it. Pay your bills on time. For more, check out: http://www.myfico.com/CreditEducation/ImproveYourScore.aspx Source: myfico.com KW Research 17
  • 18. Impress Buyers in a Flash Crunched for time? Tips to prepare for buyers in a hurry! In a competitive market, having a home in the best possible condition can help attract buyers. A clean and clutter-free home often gives the impression of a well-kept home. When pressed for time, hitting these high notes can help leave a positive impression with buyers in twenty minutes or less. - Kitchen: wipe down counters and fixtures with baby wipes; put away toaster, coffee maker, and can opener; empty garbage. - Bathrooms: wipe down vanity and fixtures with baby wipes; wipe the mirror down with Windex; hide the garbage; put out fresh towels. - Floors: vacuum all carpet; mop tile and wood. - Furniture: run a dusting cloth over furniture. - Clutter: pick up and conceal all clutter. Place in a bag, and tuck away in a closet or garage. For more tips on staging and preparing to impress buyers, check out www.getreadygetsetgetsold.com. Source: getreadygetsetgetsold.com KW Research 18
  • 19. Your Local Market Although it is important to stay informed about what is going on in the national economy and housing market, many different factors impact the real estate market in your area. Talk to your Keller Williams agent for assistance interpreting the conditions in your local market. Keller Williams associates are equipped with all the knowledge and information to help navigate you through the process of buying or selling a home in this challenging market. KW Research 19
  • 20. About Keller Williams Realty Founded in 1983, Keller Williams Realty, Inc., is an international real estate company with more than 74,175 associates and 693 offices located across the United States and Canada. The company began franchising in 1991, and following years of phenomenal growth and success, became the third-largest U.S. residential real estate firm in 2009. The company has succeeded by treating its associates as partners and shares its knowledge, policy control, and company profits on a system-wide basis. Focusing on helping associates realize their fullest potential, Keller Williams Realty is known as an industry leader in its family culture, unmatched education, profit sharing business model, phenomenal coaching program, and technology offerings. The company provides associates with all the tools needed to grow and thrive in today’s market. www.kw.com KW Research 20