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Nanosatellite industry overview updated aug 2015

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An updated for the successful previous presentations revewing the Nanosatellites Industry

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Nanosatellite industry overview updated aug 2015

  1. 1. Nanosatellite Industry Overview August 2015 Update Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20151
  2. 2. Content of the Presentation • Introduction • Trends and Hot Topics • Imaging nanosatellites and big data • Is This a valid business? • Myths Vs. Facts Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20152
  3. 3. Cut to the Chase • COTS in LEO has proven to be eminently capable … yet end-users exhibit strong reluctance to use it. • Community has not learned the lesson of PC vs. Mac • Perfect is the enemy of Good Enough … If you aim for perfect in nanosats, you will miss the cost- effective solution • Like PCs, CubeSats are disposable (plan to 3-5 years missions) Andrew E. Kalman, President & CTO, Pumpkin, Inc. Director, SSDL, Stanford University, July 2012 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20153
  4. 4. Introduction (1) • Satellites are categorized by their weight according to the following key: – Less than 1 kg: Pico satellite – Less than 10 kg: Nano satellite – Less than 100 kg: Micro satellite • Recently NASA AMES changed the scale – Less than 5kg: Pico satellite – Less than 50kg: Nano satellite – Less than 200 kg: Micro satellite Credit: NASA Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20154
  5. 5. Introduction (2) • Nanosatellite Market growing rapidly – Cubesats: Conception in 2000 – First missions launched in 2003 – 10-20 projects in 2004 – >300 projects ongoing now (estimate) – Since 2013, >70 launched per year – SpaceWorks’ 2014 Projection estimated between 140 and 143 nano/microsatellites across all sectors would launch globally in 2014; 158 nano/microsatellites were actually launched. • In 2014, 106 commercial nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) launched Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20155
  6. 6. Past Launches Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20156
  7. 7. Past Launches Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20157
  8. 8. CubeSatShop – The “AMAZON” of the Industry Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20158
  9. 9. A satellite inside a satellite inside a satellite Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 20159
  10. 10. Zero2infinity - Bloostar Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 10 Aug 2015
  11. 11. Trends and Hot Topics Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201511
  12. 12. CubeSat Generations • 1st : Modern Sputniks • 2nd : Utility of the 3U is demonstrated • 3rd : More power, attitude control & determination, propulsion • 4th : Constellations are here ! • 5th : AI collaborative entities • 6th : Megaconstellations Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201512
  13. 13. Trends / Hot Topics • Earth Imaging/video • EDAC enabled OBC’s • >20Krad TID • ~80W Power systems • ~100Mbps Comms • AIS/ADS-B • Propulsion (gas and plasma) • Constellations !! Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201513
  14. 14. SMDC-ONE Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201514
  15. 15. Proximity operations Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201515
  16. 16. Focus on ADCS iADCS-100 from BST MAI-400 from MAI Main sensor: STR Main actuators: RW Accuracy: <0.1 deg 3 sigma Automatic pointing: Yes Main sensor: ES+SS Main actuators: RW Accuracy: <0.1 deg 3 sigma Automatic pointing: Yes XACT from BCT Main sensor: STR Main actuators: RW Accuracy: <0.02 deg 3 sigma Automatic pointing: Yes Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201516
  17. 17. Focus on Propulsion Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201517
  18. 18. Water Propulsion Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201518
  19. 19. Enabling Technologies: PhoneSat Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201519
  20. 20. New Assembly scheme - Monarch Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201520
  21. 21. Imagine Satellites and Big Data What (On earth) can be done with Yottabyte of data ?? Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 21
  22. 22. The World is about to change • Three major satellite constellations will be fully operational within three to five years – SkyBox (24 satellites: Video + images) – Planet Labs (100-200 satellites: images including IR) – Spire (60-100 Satellites: images for weather forcast) • Live video streaming called Urthecast (2 cameras 4K each, color) will be operational within months • Fully Operational, these constellations, along with Urthecast will generate about 2.98 Exabytes of data per day (That’s about 1.08 Zettabytes per year) – 480 Mbyte/sec * 6 hours/day * 24 (SkyBox) * 100 (Planet Labs) * 60 (Spire) * 2 (Urthecast) Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 22
  23. 23. Yottabyte ??? What is Yottabyte Yottabyte (1024) = 1024 Zettabytes (1021) = 1048576 Exabytes (1018) = 1073741824 Petabytes (1015) = 1099511627776 Terabytes (1012) = 1125899906842624 Gigabytes (109) = 1152921504606846976 Megabytes (106) = 1180591620717411303424 Kilobytes (103) = 1,208,925,819,614,629,174,706,176 bytes interesting fact: 2 Petabytes would store the entire contents of ALL US academic libraries Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 23
  24. 24. Removing barriers Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201524
  25. 25. Using all kinds of Frequencies Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201525
  26. 26. X-band 100Mbps transmitter Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201526
  27. 27. Miniature Ka-band Transmitter Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 27 Credit: CANOPUS
  28. 28. Patch Antennas Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201528 Credit: AntDevCo, ClydeSpace 14 dbi, 68 g, 7x7 cm 8 dbi, 50 g, 6.7 cm
  29. 29. Miniature Deployable High Gain Antenna - Boeing Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201529
  30. 30. Miniature Deployable High Gain Antenna - Boeing Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201530
  31. 31. Another method to deploy Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 31 Credit: CANOPUS
  32. 32. Why deploy if you can…. Inflate ? Credit: MIT Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201532
  33. 33. Ka !! The ISARA Project (NASA) • 100 Mbps communication in Ka • 35 db antenna gain • Unique “PopUp” Feed Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201533
  34. 34. MarCO Ka Antenna Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 34 "InSight MarCO Transparent" by NASA/JPL-Caltech-
  35. 35. Expandable Antennas Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 35 Aug 2015
  36. 36. AeroCube-OCSD: 1.5U Optical communication Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201536
  37. 37. RainCube – 35GHz SAR Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 37 "Radar in Cubesat "by NASA/JPL
  38. 38. Livestream Video from Space Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201538 •panchromatic high-definition video, in clips up to 90 seconds long with 30 frames per second at a resolution of 1.1 meters
  39. 39. TUBSAT - LAPAN Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 39
  40. 40. Transforming imagery into unlimited business value Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 40 • Agriculture Health Monitoring, • Humanitarian Aid, • Insurance Modeling, • Oil Storage Monitoring, • Natural Disaster Response, • Oil & Gas Infrastructure Monitoring, • Financial Trading Intelligence, • Mining Operations Monitoring, • Carbon Monitoring, • Maritime Monitoring
  41. 41. Is this a valid Business ? Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201541
  42. 42. 2013 – The year it became a business ! Summary of 02/2014 SpaceWorks report • Commercial companies will contribute over one fourth of all nano/microsatellites launched in 2014 – This is a significant increase from 2013, where the commercial sector contributed only 11% – The continued emergence and growth of commercial companies (see table) will result in an even greater increase in 2015, with the sector contributing 60% of all nano/microsatellites launched • Many companies have publicly revealed their near-term intentions regarding future launches of nano/microsatellites and the satellites’ wide spectrum of revenue generating applications • Other companies have been more reserved, revealing only small details of their plans Precise quantities aside, strong evidence suggests the commercial sector will have a meaningful and enduring impact on the nano/microsatellite industry Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201542
  43. 43. New Space is a fact Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201543
  44. 44. Planet Labs Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201544
  45. 45. Flock-1 Launch 02/2014 >100 satellites launched !! Credit: NASA Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201545
  46. 46. SPIRE – Satellites on Demand Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201546
  47. 47. Launch 11/2013 3 ArduSats in space, more will be launched this year Credit: NASA Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201547
  48. 48. ADS-B Yellow indicates Ground based ADS-B – No oceanic cover !! Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201548
  49. 49. STEM Education • Near space experiments • Space Camp • Lectures Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 49
  50. 50. The First Israeli Nanosatellite ! Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 50 Launched on 19/06/2014 with a record breaking 37 satellites cluster launch. Still working 
  51. 51. The First Israeli Nanosat Launch Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 51
  52. 52. Myths Vs. Facts Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201552
  53. 53. Myth: Nanosatellites are not reliable, Their success rate is less than 50% Fact: Success rate of Nanosatellite projects for the last five years is stable >80% • Nanosatellites Industry is complex, and incorporates industrial, research and academic institutes • Discussing “Nanosatellites Reliability” without taking into account who manufactured the satellites is like discussing “automobile reliability” while comparing BMW to TATA Myth #1: Nanosatellites Reliability Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201553
  54. 54. Are COTS Reliable enough ? Excluding the three large launch campaigns in 2013-2014 the success rate is 80% Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 82% 91% 93% 99% 92% 95% 95% 99% 16.00 21.71 27.40 47.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 55.00 60.00 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 2003-2014 2007-2014 2009-2014 2013-2014 Overall Succes rate Success in Space #/year Aug 201554
  55. 55. Myth: COTS are not reliable, They are the cause for failures Fact: Components are very reliable, the problem is workmanship • Two thirds of the projects are done by amateurs with no experience in space standards AIT • Technical analysis presented @2011 small sat conference showed most failures are related to workmanship • Flagship schools build “real” missions that work (90% success) - • Components are getting better all the time – This is a competitive market with several leading manufacturers pushing for constant quality improvement of products Myth #2: Components Reliability Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201555
  56. 56. Most satellites are being built by amateurs Attack of the CubeSats: A Statistical Look: Michael Swartwout – Saint Louis University Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201556
  57. 57. Myth: Nanosatellites that reach space last for several months and than die Fact: There are nanosatellites that launched more than a decade ago and are still operational • COTS are now RAD tolerant up to 20 Krad • Computers are Latchup and SEU protected • Low cost allow redundancy – Several items in a satellite – Several satellites (mission redundancy) Myth #3: Nanosatellites don’t last long in space Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201557
  58. 58. • Satellites active since 2003 – Cute-1 – CubeSat XI-IV – RS-22 • Satellites active since 2005 – Cubesat XI-V • Satellites active since 2006 – GeneSat-1 • Satellites active since 2008 – Cute-1.7 + APD II – Delfi-C3 – SEEDS II • Satellites active since 2009 – PRISM – SwissCube – BEESAT – ITUpSAT1 Average mission lifetime > 40 months Mission Lifetime for Nanosatellites *source of data: Cubesat page at the AMSAT web page Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201558
  59. 59. Future Trends Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201559
  60. 60. Market Forecast Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201560
  61. 61. Nano/Micro satellite Future programs Credit: SpaceWorks Nano/Microsatellite Market AssessmentPariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201561
  62. 62. Analysis per sector Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201562
  63. 63. 2014 Market assessment conclusions • The civil sector remains strong, but the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities will continue to influence the nano/microsatellite market; future launches suggest this trend will continue • Recent multi-million and multi-billion dollar investments in various ventures confirm the commercial sector’s continued interest in the nano/microsatellite and small satellite industries. Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201563
  64. 64. • 4rd Generation is here ! – Since 2012 success rate is more than 90% • Commercial companies will dominate the CubeSat market – EDU project will decrease to 25% of the market • Workmanship is the main cause for failures – Communication system failures are often due to bad wiring and not transmitter or receiver failures – Power system failures mostly occur due to connection loss between solar panels and batteries • Quality of subsystem is constantly improving – Number of manufacturers is rising, especially in Europe – Economical constraints derived meticulous QA – Competitiveness in the market manifests in the form of better quality products • High-End customers require High-End products – Space QA is now part of the production line Summary Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201564
  65. 65. Retrospect • 2000 - Small Satellites in Triumph and Tribulation: A Year of Paradoxes • 2001 - Small Satellites - Coming of Age • 2002 - "Breakthrough Technologies" - The Foundation of the Future • 2003 - Access to Space: Getting There is More Than Half the Battle • 2004 - Small Satellites: Complementary or Disruptive Technology? • 2005 - Small Satellite Standards: Key to the Future?2014 - The Commerce of Small Satellites • 2006 - The First Twenty Years: Where we've been, Where we're going • 2007 - It's the Mission that Matters Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 65
  66. 66. Retrospect • 2008 - Big Business • 2009 - Elements of New Space Systems • 2010 - Connecting the Dots: Bringing Visionaries, System Implementers & Mission Sponsors Together • 2011 - 25 Years of Progress: Endless Prospects for the Future • 2012 - Enhancing Global Awareness through Small Satellites • 2013 - Small Satellite Constellations: Strength in Numbers • 2014 - The Commerce of Small Satellites • 2015 – All systems go Aug 2015 Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview 66
  67. 67. What about EDU Projects ? They just became smaller Femto-sats PocketQubes WREN By STADOKO UG Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201567
  68. 68. Thank you Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201568
  69. 69. Sources of Information • 25 Years of Small Satellites – Siegfried Janson – The Aerospace Corporation • Attack of the CubeSats: A Statistical Look – Michael Swartwout – Saint Louis University • Recent CubeSat Launch Experiences on U.S. Launch Vehicles – Jordi Puig-Suari, Roland Coelho – California Polytechnic State University; Scott Williams, Victor Aguero, Kyle Leveque, Bryan Klofas – SRI International • Distant Horizons: Smallsat Evolution in the Mid-to-Far Term – Matt Bille, Paul Kolodziejski, Tom Hunsaker – Booz Allen Hamilton • Nine Years and Counting – A Nanosatellite Designer's Perspective – Andrew E. Kalman , President & CTO, Pumpkin, Inc. Director, SSDL, Stanford University • Propulsion Solutions for CubeSats – W. Dan Williams, Busek Co. Inc • Beyond CubeSats: Operational, Responsive, Nanosatellite Missions – Jeroen Rotteveel, ISIS- Innovative Solutions in Space • Reliability of University-Class Spacecraft: A Statistical Look – Prof Michael Swartwout – Saint Louis University, March 2012 • The Future of CubeSat Data Communications, 26 October 2012 – Bryan Klofas KF6ZEO, SRI International • Nano/Microsatellite Market Assessment, February 2015 – Mr. Dominic DePasquale , Director of Washington D.C. Operations, Dr. John Bradford, President, SpaceWorks Engineering Pariente - Nanosatellite Industry Overview Aug 201569

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