demo theories and public opinion

1. Mark Peffley
PS 473 Public Opinion

2. 1)You will comprehend how surveys are conducted
and how to interpret their results.
2)You will evaluate theories of how people form
opinions and answer survey questions.
3)You will understand—and reflect on—debates
about the “competence” of the public and how
much public opinion should influence public policy.
4)You will become more savvy consumers of
public opinion data, which you’ll see in the news
for the rest of your life.

3.  Quizzes will cover the assigned readings due in class that day and
material from the prior class discussions.
 Typically 5 multiple choice questions
 10-15 quizzes. I will drop 2 lowest quiz scores and average the rest.
 1/3 of attendance/partic grade = 5% of the course grade.
 WHY QUIZZES? Frequent quizzes have been shown to improve
students’ learning significantly.
 In one recent study in a large introductory class in psychology,
instituting on-line quizzes appeared to improve students’
performance (especially among students whose families were less
wealthy). Moreover, students taking the class also did better in their
other classes that semester, and in the classes they took the next
semester.This suggests that frequent assessment helps students
develop study habits that are beneficial in other courses, not just the
course that assigns quizzes. Frequent quizzes also help the instructor
assess how well concepts are understood to allow for adjustment.

4.  When, if ever, should elected officials
follow (listen to?) the public when making
decisions about public policy?
 Are the masses:
 “Asses” (Nietzsche) and politically irrational?
 Or rational and capable of reason (Jefferson)?

5.  “Shenkman’s little book (Just How
Stupid AreWe?) presents a familiar
collection of bleak results from
opinion surveys documenting some
of the many things most Americans
don’t know about politics,
government, and American history.”
Consistently, Bartels interprets the survey evidence on
the sophistication of the American voter as “half full.”

6. The biggest issue in the 2000 election. Three out of every four people polled said
that the difference in incomes between rich people and poor people had increased in
the past 20 years, and most of them added that that is a bad thing—but most of
those people still supported the regressive 2001 Bush tax cut and the even more
regressive repeal of the estate tax.

7.  Despite low political sophistication,
public preferences are "enlightened
enough.“
 However, there is a huge
disconnect between the political
preferences of the lower and
middle classes and government
policy decisions.
 See Gilens & Page near the end of the
course.

8.  Do mass publics support political
tolerance—i.e., a willingness to extend
basic liberties to one’s domestic
enemies?
 Everyone supports the principle of free
speech for any groups, no matter what their
views.
 But when asked about groups we don’t like,
we often balk.Why?
 Why are politicians often more politically
tolerant than mass publics?

9.  The sophistication of public opinion (citizen
competence)
 Human nature (is it fixed or malleable?)
 The proper role of elites vs. masses
 Normative standards for evaluating public
opinion and elite responsiveness to it.

10. 1. Direct democracy of Greek city-state of Athens (5th
Cent. BC), Geneva Switzerland (18th Cent.).
▪ Hired Sophists, trained in the art of rhetoric and classical debate.
▪ Citizens are the government.
2. Problems:
▪ Slaves outnumbered citizens in Athens.
▪ Unworkable in modern nation-state
3. Thomas Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence:
“We hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with
certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness-That to secure these
Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, that
whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to
abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its Foundation on such Principles, and organizing its powers in
such Form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.”
Whenever a government does not secure the people’s rights, “it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it….”

11. A. Historical examples:
1. Plato’s Allegory of the Cave
2. Federalist Papers

12.  Imagine the condition of men living
in a sort of cavernous chamber
underground. Here they have been
from childhood, chained by the leg
and neck, so they can’t move and
can see only what is in front of
them, because the chains won’t let
them turn their heads. They watch
manipulated images cast from a
fire onto the walls of the cave—a
kind of puppet show, with images
and voices.This is the only reality of
which they are aware, so they think
the images in the cave are the real
world.They offer prizes to each
other to see who can best predict
the sequence of images they are
presented. These predictions count
for “wisdom” among the denizens
of the cave.

13. Framers:
Federalist Papers
Federalist No. 10: Mob rule: “they [pure democracies] have ever been
spectacles of turmoil and contention; have ever been found incompatible with
personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in
their lives as they have been violent in their deaths.”

14. Federalist 49, Madison argued against the idea of allowing disputes to be settled by
appeals to the public convention and in favor of the government intervention to
control public passions: “…still, it [a hypothetical dispute] could never be expected
to turn on the true merits of the question. It would inevitably be connected with
the spirit of pre-existing parties, or of parties springing out of the question itself…
[or] would be connected with persons of distinguished character and extensive
influence in the community.The passions, therefore, not the reason, of the public
would sit in judgment. But it is the reason, alone, of the public, that ought to control
and regulate the government. The passions ought to be controlled and regulated
by the government.”[emphasis added]
Federalist 71: “The republican principle demands that the deliberate sense of the
community should govern the conduct of those to whom they intrust the
management of their affairs; but it does not require an unqualified complaisance
to every sudden breeze of passion, or to every transient impulse, which the people
may receive from the arts of men, who flatter their prejudices to betray their
interests.” (p. 432)
In other words, pure democracies were dangerous because the masses were led by
their passions and prejudices instead of reason. Public opinion needed to be
filtered through the elite deliberation of representatives.

15. Framers Solution:
Institutional Barriers & rely on Elites to prevent pure
democracy, majority tyranny, and to maintain a stable
democracy
Institutional Barriers:
1) Electoral College, Senate
2) Limited government, SOP
3) Bill of Rights,Constitution
4) Independent Judiciary (appointed, not elected)
Trustee representation:
1) Elite deliberation & filtration of public sentiment
2) Elites are guardians protecting democracy from the masses
Elections are designed to select leaders and give them
legitimacy to lead so the public will follow them

16.  In short, the masses looked like asses vs.
paragons of democratic virtue

17. Late 1960s, Carol Pateman, Benjamin Barber and others found in J.S. Mill’s
writings an argument for increasing political enlightenment through mass
participation.
Mass political participation “Political Enlightenment” (J. S. Mill, Carol
Pateman):
1) A sense of responsibility & a moral rationale for obeying the laws of a
representative body
2) The faculties of reasoning & intellect by exercising judgment, making
political decisions
3) Creates incentives to become informed
4) Increases political tolerance toward one's domestic enemies

18. Classical Democracy Democratic Elitism Participatory
Democracy
Theorists Rousseau, Jefferson Schumpeter, Madison, Lippmann Pateman, J.S. Mill
Historical Examples Greek city state, face-to-face
deliberation
Plato’s “cave” allegory, Federalist
Papers
Late 1960s, U.S.
Human Nature Capable of self-rule & reason Masses are unsophisticated,
inattentive, anti-democratic & these
characteristics are immutable (fixed)
Political “enlightenment” through
mass education & participation
because nature is mutable. Demo-
cracy as a reconstructive ideal.
Role of Masses
(Sophistication)
Highly sophisticated, capable of self-
rule, active, tolerant
Unsophisticated, incapable, passive,
intolerant
High levels of participation, beyond
just voting
Role of Elites Masses are the government Guardians,Trustees Delegates
PoliticalValues 1. Popular sovereignty
2. Political equality, liberty
1. Minimal popular sovereignty to
maximize the political stability of
democracy
2. Elite deliberation of modern issues
1. Popular sovereignty
2. Political equality, liberty
3. Public deliberation to achieve the
public will

19. In the second term, Cheney felt Bush
was moving away from him. He said Bush
was shackled by the public reaction and
the criticism he took. Bush was more
malleable to that.
It was clear that Cheney's doctrine was
cast-iron strength at all times -- never
apologize, never explain -- and Bush
moved toward the conciliatory.
--Friend of Cheney’s who’s seen notes of his book.
Cheney (Fox interview, 1-14-07): “Polls change
day by day, week by week. I think the vast
majority of Americans want the right
outcome in Iraq. The challenge for us is to
be able to provide that. But you cannot
simply stick your finger up in the wind
and say, "Gee, public opinion's against;
we'd better quit."

20. CHENEY: On the security front, I think there’s a general consensus
that we’ve made major progress, that the surge has worked. That’s
been a major success.
RADDATZ: Two-third of Americans say it’s not worth fighting.
CHENEY: So?
RADDATZ So? You don’t care what the American people think?
CHENEY: No. I think you cannot be blown off course by the
fluctuations in the public opinion polls.
Mar 20, 2008: interview on ABC

21.  'Iron-ass'Cheney and
'arrogant' Rumsfeld damaged
America, says George Bush Sr.
 [Cheney’s] reaction [to 9/11],
what to do about the Middle
East. Just iron-ass. His seeming
knuckling under to the real
hard-charging guys who want
to fight about everything, use
force to get our way in the
Middle East.”
 Rumsfeld, who was Bush
Jr’s secretary of defense for
most of his two terms, is called
“an arrogant fellow”, adding: “I
don’t like what he did, and I
think it hurt the president.”

22.  After the Paris bombings and San Bernardino
shootings, should the Obama administration
follow a majority of the public if it wants a
large increase in U.S. troops in Syria to take
the fight to ISIS?

24.  Interesting example of how public
deliberation can work in an ideal setting.

25.  Which democratic theory is more consistent
with the empirical evidence on public opinion?
 How responsive are political elites to public
opinion?
 To what extent should public opinion determine
public policy?

26. 473 Democratic Theory and Public Opinion Discussion Questions
1. How politically sophisticated and politically active are democratic citizens, according to each of
the theories of Classical Democracy, Democratic Elitism and Participatory Democracy?
2. What theory of democracy is most consistent with the Framers’ (e.g., James Madison) views of
public opinion as expressed in the Federalist Papers? Explain.
3. What are some of the major problems of each of the three theories of democracy?
Public Opinion Questions
1. Define public opinion, and discuss some of the limitations of this definition, according to
Clawson and Oxley. How does public opinion differ from public judgment?
2. Define, distinguish and provide examples of the following concepts, as discussed in class and
Clawson and Oxley:
a. Attitude?
b. Beliefs
c. Values
d. Behavioral Intentions
e. Emotions
f. Belief system