Keynote presentation from the Beyond Maps Forum, hosted by Sensis in Melbourne Australia. March 2012. Looking at trends in mobile location and the implications for the automotive market.

1. Is the Future Here Already?
Marc Prioleau
Prioleau Advisors
www.prioleauadv.com

2. “The future has already arrived. It's just not
evenly distributed yet.”
William Gibson

3. Agenda
• Some History
• My Hypothesis
• The Big Trends
• Implications
• M&A in the Location Space

4. “The K-Mart of Navigation”
• Navigation, Circa 1995
• Delco Telepath 100
• “The system is
rudimentary”
Gary Dickson
President, Delco
Master of Understatement

5. Evolution of Capabilities
Tablets
SmartPhones/App Stores
Data Networks
Digital Maps
Location (GPS)
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

6. Evolution of Mobile Location
Location Context
Social-Location
Location Advertising
Local Search
Navigation
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

7. Hypothesis
• The Mobile experience is driving the User Expectations
• User expectations will drive user behavior, regardless of
attempts to “manage” that behavior
• Therefore, the in-car experience will be impacted by the core
aspects of mobile…
• Or else people will drive with smartphones on their knee…
So how will Search, Social and Location Context impact the in-vehicle experience?

8. Why Does it Matter?
• New business models disrupt established Online
models Loyalty
engagement
Online Local Foot traffic
Search Marketing
Location Context
Upfront sell Social-Location
Subscription
Location Advertising
Local Search
Navigation
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012

9. Not Covering
• Passenger Infotainment
• Car-to-infrastructure
• Vehicle CRM
• Car-to-car Communications
• Specific Implementations

10. Local Search
• Most highly monetized
online revenue
• Online local search has
disrupted off-line
• Well adopted, evolving
merchant models
• Penetrating into most
Connected Car concepts

11. Ads in cars?
• Appropriate?
• Strong sentiment that ads
may not be relevant while
driving
• Feasible?
• Can it drive new business
models?
• My Guess: Inevitable

12. Blurring of Desktop and Mobile
• Online behavior is no longer segmented into
“mobile” behaviors and “desktop” behaviors
• Can search, find, research, compare, respond,
purchase, discuss
…equally well on Mobile and Desktop.
• Implication: What I saw on my desktop, I may
buy off my mobile
• Where does the vehicle fit into this?

13. Location-Based Advertising
• Spending on on-line
(hyper-)local advertising
remains defiantly small
Cost (CPM)
The Location Ad Divide
• Locations Services and
Brands talking past each
other
Reach

14. Reach vs Radius (& Relevance)
• Conversation with
Mobile Ad company: Auto Dealer
• Importance of location:
8 out of 10
Reach
• Understanding of Coffee Shop
Location: 4 out of 10
Radius (Relevance-1)

15. New Category: Driving Search
• Search while driving = high
relevance
• Intent
• Immediacy
• Proximity
• Local search
• Radius not as relevant
• Why not Headlight: Along route
• Why not Predictive: Tied into
Diary/PIM

16. Integration of Real Time Content
• Traffic Information
• Parking Availability
• Speed Cameras
• Real-Time Offers
• Slack Time Marketing
• Loyalty Programs

17. New Idea: The Mobile Geofence
Static Geofence: Mobile
Geofence:
• Geofence around
static object • Geofence around
Mobile (auto)
• Action triggered
when mobile • Triggers controled
detected in static by mobile
geofence
• Better control of
privacy,
preferences,
timing

18. Search becoming Social
Travel
Search Reviews

19. Social Influence
• Social is no longer a discreet
segment of online
• Every aspect of Online will
have a social component
• Communication
• Search
• Reviews
• Marketing
• Buying/eCommerce

20. Social Structure
• Social is evolving around
major “Engagement
Platforms” plus many
specialized apps
• Building on the engagement
platform means:
• Faster, cheaper distribution
• Less control over the business
model

21. Which Social Network?
• All have slightly
different aspects
• Not all will succeed
• Some may be just
proving a market
• Google + is TBD

22. FacebookOpenGraph: More than Likes
PLACE
• OpenGraph allows application developers tie directly into the 800+M Users
in the Facebook Social Graph
• Push is on for new Verbs: More specific descriptors of what friends are
doing

23. Last Week from Facebook
We are also launching APIs to allow applications to read this
data. With permission, it will allow any application that a
person is interacting with to access the places that that
person and their friends have visited. This will allow travel
apps to create trip suggestions based on vacations taken by
your friends or suggest customized experiences to people
based on their current location. A person arriving in a new
city can get restaurant suggestions, hotel recommendations,
and advice on the best gyms to use based on the places
their friends in the area frequent to make the experience
easier.

24. Implications of Social for Auto
• Not about checking Facebook
while driving
• Social recommendations in
“Driving Search”
• What verbs will be important
in the driving experience?
• Visiting, touring, looking for…
• Crowd-sourced data for
Traffic, usage, lines, etc.

25. Twitter?
• Not what you had for breakfast
• Is real-time Micro-Publishing
about:
• Events
• Traffic/Accidents
• Offers
• Sights
• Twitter needs better location
filtering

26. The Maligned Check-In
• Foursquare pioneered the
check-in
• Semi-Interesting social
gesture
• Very interesting engagement
mechanism
• Problem: Check-In fatigue
• Evolution: Auto Check-In

27. Context: Personalization
• Mobile phones are ground
zero for online
personalization
• Apps
• Contacts
• Calendar
• Communications
• Integration of phone with
vehicle now underway in
several ways

28. Phones track location…a lot

29. Habits
• Habits involve:
Brain Activity
• Trigger
• Habit
• Reward
• Mobile Phone use is
driving the habits
Source: MIT Brain & Cognitive Sciences Dept.

30. Don’t Believe Me?

31. Five Behavior Cues
• Time of day
• Emotional State
• Other People
• Preceding event and…..
(drum roll please)
• LOCATION

32. Local Context
• Location is one of Five Key Behavioral Cues
• Location helps define:
• Behavior/habits
• Lifestyle
• Demographics
• “Personal Map”
• Unusual Events

33. Let’s Be Social Scientists….

34. Marc’s Last 30 Days
Marc is:
• From California
• In Telecom
High Zurich • Cheap
Concentration 26Feb & 1 Mar • A Swiss Air Traveler
24 Comercio Barcelona
Restaurant 26Feb-1Mar

35. Marc’s Last 30 Days
Marc is:
Squaw Valley • From California
11-12 Feb • In Telecom
• Cheap
• A Swiss Air traveler
• From SF Bay Area
1000’s of points • A skier

36. Marc’s Last 30 Days
Marc is:
• From California
University Ave 1000’s of points
• In Telecom
• Cheap
• A Swiss Air traveler
• From SF Bay Area
• A skier
• From Palo Alto
Train Station • Likes to get coffee on
University Ave
• A train rider

37. Marc’s Last 30 Days
Marc is:
• From California
Downtown San • In Telecom
Francisco, • Cheap
Mon, Weds, 8-6 • A Swiss Air traveler
• From SF Bay Area
• A skier
• From Palo Alto
• Likes to get coffee on
University Ave
• A train rider
• In downtown SF two
days/week for work

38. Which would you try to sell Marc?
Mani-Pedi Ski Vacation

39. Business Models
Do you want to:
?
• Sell Vehicles
• Build Brand Loyalty
• Sell Auto Electronics
• Sell Services/Subscriptions
• Sell Local advertising

40. Key for Future: Partnerships
• Competition is driving
integrated solutions
• Many parts are needed
• They will not self-assemble
• Partnerships need to be
meaningful, focused on Big
Picture

41. M&A in the Location Business
• 40-50 M&A Transactions/Year
since 2007 $3.5B $3.0B
• Many “Acqui-Hires” $15B $.5B $1.7B
• A Few Mercy Killings
• Relatively Few Big Deals
Market does not yet have
Pattern Recognition
Source: Location Technology M&A Project

42. Look at the Big Picture
• Think of the bounds of
the problem you solve
• What Parts:
• Do you have now?
• Can you develop?
• Should you partner for?
• Should you acquire
• Have a plan!

43. Thank You
marc@prioleauadv.com
www.prioleauadv.com