Socio-economic impacts of climate change in Afghanistan

1. Socio-Economic Impacts of
Climate Change in
Afghanistan

2. Background
Support NAPA Process (UNEP/NEPA)
Review climate projections
Temperature, Precipitation to 2100
Assessment of ANDS and Sector Strategies
Agriculture, Social Protection, Energy & Water
Consultation with key stakeholders
Donors, Ministries, NGOs,
Field Visits
Kabul, Bamyan, Balkh, Jowzjan

3. Challenges
Climate
projection models require refinement due to the lack
of reliable historic meteorological records.
 Complex
topography means variations in climate response,
particularly precipitation, are likely to be large.
 Sporadic
& poor quality socio-economic data make modelling
of costs and benefits of adaptation difficult
Poor
national security also restricts the ability to monitor
impacts and mainstream effective responses.

4. Historic Climate Trends
Arid and semi-arid continental climate with cold winters
and hot summers, with drought ongoing since 1990s
Mean annual temperature has increased by 0.6°C since
1960, at an average rate of around 0.13°C Warming trends
are most pronounced in Autumn (SON).
Mean rainfall over Afghanistan has decreased slightly (at
an average rate of 0.5mm per month (or 2 percent per
decade) since 1960, due to lower spring rainfall.

5. Projections - Temperature
Projected Significant warming across all regions of Afghanistan
Average increases in temperature of between 2C and 6.2C by 2100
Warming is most rapid in spring/summer with this trend being
marked in the north and the central plains of Afghanistan.
Substantial increases in the frequency of days and nights that are
considered ‘hot’ in current climate, especially during summer months.
Up to 2030s, the amount of warming is not sensitive to global
emission scenarios. By 2060, impacts are sensitive to global emissions
projections.

6. Projections - Temperature

7. Projections - Rainfall
In the short term, average rainfall is projected to show to be
fairly flat with potential for small increase, 10-20mm.
Long term changes 2090s show conditions are generally
drier (-40 mm high, -20 mm medium, -10 mm low)
Much of the drying is due to decreases in spring rainfall
(MAM).
Winters are expected to be significantly drier in the South.

8. Projections - Rainfall

9. Climatic Hazards
 Exacerbation
Increased
of existing hazards
heat stress
Drought/changes
in precipitation
 Floods
due to rapid snow melt
Lower
river flow rates

10. Climatic Hazards

11. Sectoral Impacts - Agriculture
Increased soil evaporation, reduced river flow from earlier snow melt, and
less frequent rain during peak cultivation seasons
Increased crop failure levels due to water shortages, with increase in
amount of potentially productive land left uncultivated.
Narrower choice of crop options with water-intensive varieties less
attractive compared to drought hardy varieties, including poppy.
Large parts of the agricultural economy will become marginal without
significant expansion of irrigation and water management.
The existing irrigation system is operating at a low efficiency rate of about
25 percent, with significant potential for improvement.

12. Sectoral Impacts – Water
Cumulative
effects of more frequent and intense droughts on reservoirs
and groundwater could threaten the water supply of entire communities
in the most arid regions of Afghanistan,
Rises
in winter and spring temperatures will lead to more rapid and
earlier snow melt, creating risk of flash flooding exacerbated by hardened
drought effected soils.
The
lack of water availability will increase pressure on Afghanistan and
surrounding states to claim the greatest possible share of regional water
sources in the longer term with potential likelihood for political dispute.

13. Sectoral Impacts – Livelihoods
The poor are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with food security
deteriorating and impacts felt most by those in the agricultural economy.
Distributional effects are more likely to fall upon women and children, and upon
those involved in subsistence agriculture or pastoralism.
A large proportion of the Afghan population live just above the poverty line climatic shocks have the potential to tip a large %of population into poverty.
Impacts on human health, such as increased prevalence of disease affect the
amount of labour available for agriculture and non-farm rural activities.
The effects of environmental degradation reduce the availability of animal feed,
and the funds available for livestock husbandry.

14. Sectoral Impacts - Energy
Mitigation
GHG emissions in absolute and per capita terms are extremely low (0.5 tons
Co2e pc). Electricity sourced from indigenous/imported hydro.
Low carbon growth is sensible under development/population growth
scenarios but should not preclude indigenous fossil fuel resources.
Developmental impact should take precedence over emissions considerations
in order to build resilience and adaptive capacity.
The limited reach of regional grids mean that off grid renewable technologies,
(small hydro, solar PV, solar thermal and wind) are important.
Adaptation
Impacts are most likely to be felt in hydro-electricity production, with higher
winter (rapid snow melt)and lower summer flow rates (drought, irrigation)
Large thermal power plant and transmission infrastructure are also
susceptible to heat stress and flooding

15. Going Forward
Improve modelling work and climatic data collection in country, using
existing available data and expanded climate station network
Improve 'climate awareness and resilience' of development strategies and
programmes at Ministry and Donor level, through risk screening and
mainstreaming
Ensure better integration of Agriculture and Water management strategies
and pooling of resources
Work towards costed adaptation investment plans to access climate
adaptation funding mechanisms currently under development (eg UNDP)
Government experts should continue to engage with wider regional
planning and development bodies to share best practice from central and
south Asia