“Psychologists have recognized for many
years that humans have a limited capacity to
store current information in memory.”
- “Information Overload” on Wikipedia
AUTOMATED BY RECOMMENDATION
- Neal's slides during his PhD
Navigating choice ~
Predicting missing data
Ranking on predictions
AUTOMATED BY RECOMMENDATION
- Neal's slides during his PhD
No “framework”
No “item” context
No theory/categorisation
Simplistic assumption
No uniformity
1000 outcomes for 1000 people
USES BEHAVIOURAL THEORY
Online Recommendations
EXPLAINS THE BEHAVIOUR
ALWAYS GETS IT RIGHT
AUTOMATED PROCESS
ENHANCES ENGAGEMENT
CHANGES BEHAVIOUR
NO
NO / BADLY
NO
YES
YES
YES
USES BEHAVIOURAL THEORY
EXPLAINS THE BEHAVIOUR
ALWAYS GETS IT RIGHT
AUTOMATED PROCESS
ENHANCES ENGAGEMENT
CHANGES BEHAVIOUR
NO
NO
NO
YES
YES
YES
DOMAIN
KNOWLEDGE
DATA
SCIENCE
BOTH
Online Recommendations
“Your decades of specialist knowledge are not
only useless, they're actually unhelpful; your
sophisticated techniques are worse than
generic methods; The algorithms tell you
what's important and what's not...”
- @jeremyphoward (Interview)
“...You might ask why those things are
important, but I think that's less interesting.
You end up with a predictive model that
works.”
- @jeremyphoward (Interview)
WHAT SMARTPHONES CAN
SENSE THEMSELVES
What SMARTPHONES CAN
PROMPT YOU TO TELL
The Emotion Sense Platform:
Location, mobility, sociability, physical activity
Mood, symptoms, assessments
YOUR SMOKING BEHAVIOUR
Smoking Cessation – Ideal
+ “RECOMMENDED” SUPPORT
= BEHAVIOUR CHANGE
NO DATA ON THE “USER”
WHAT IS THE “ITEM?”
NOT POSSIBLE?
“Cold start is a potential problem in
computer-based information systems (...WHERE..)
the system cannot draw any inferences for
users (or items) about which it has not yet
gathered sufficient information.”
- “Cold Start” on Wikipedia
- “Cold Start” on Wikipedia
“Cold start is a potential problem in
computer-based information systems (...WHERE..)
the system cannot draw any inferences for
users (or items) about which it has not yet
gathered sufficient information.”
And beyond: in a given health
domain, what information
should we (can we) collect?
“cue-induced cravings: intense, episodic cravings
typically provoked by situational cues
associated with drug use (...) smokers exposed
to smoking-related cues demonstrate
increased craving (...).”
- Ferguson, Shiffman. The relevance and treatment
of cue-induced cravings in tobacco dependence. In J
Subst Abuse Treat. April 2009.
“cue-induced cravings: intense, episodic cravings
typically provoked by situational cues
associated with drug use (...) smokers exposed
to smoking-related cues demonstrate
increased craving (...).”
- Ferguson, Shiffman. The relevance and treatment
of cue-induced cravings in tobacco dependence. In J
Subst Abuse Treat. April 2009.
Situation: mood, craving,
location, social setting
USES BEHAVIOURAL THEORY
EXPLAINS THE BEHAVIOUR
ALWAYS GETS IT RIGHT
AUTOMATED PROCESS
ENHANCES ENGAGEMENT
CHANGES BEHAVIOUR
YES
NO
NO
YES
YES?
YES?
Smoking Cessation
YES
(BUT what DATA!)