Global emission pathways towards 2°C target: Good practices for the preparation of INDCs

1. Global emission pathways towards 2°C target Good practices for the preparation of INDCs Seminar on International Climate Negotiations 13-14, November 2014, Berlin Dr. Niklas Höhne N.Hoehne@newclimate.org www.newclimate.org

2. About NewClimate Institute Non-profit research institute founded Nov. 2014 by 7 former Ecofys colleagues Offices in Berlin and Cologne (Germany) Areas of expertise Climate negotiations Tracking clilmate action Climate and development Climate financing Carbon market mechanisms www.newclimate.org 2

3. Content Global emission pathways towards 2°C DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Enhancing ambition in the major emitting countries Technical background report on analysis of current and potential climate policies Lead Authors: Annemiek Admiraal (PBL), Michel den Elzen* (PBL), Hanna Fekete (Ecofys), Nicklas Forsell (IIASA), Niklas Höhne (Ecofys), Anu Korosuo (IIASA), Mark Roelfsema (PBL), Thomas Day (Ecofys), Heleen van Soest (PBL) [ORDER TBD] Contributing Authors: Andries Hof (PBL), Michael Obersteiner (IIASA) * Corresponding author: michel.denelzen@pbl.nl © Ecofys/PBL/IIASA 2014 DRAFT 16 October 2014 PLEASE DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE Available soon Good practice in preparation of INDCs 1 www.newclimate.org 3

4. Country results www.newclimate.org 4

5. Country results www.newclimate.org 5

6. New target of the USA Source: Climateactiontracker.org www.newclimate.org 6

7. New target of China Source: Climateactiontracker.org www.newclimate.org 7

8. Aggregating pledges and action Source: Climateactiontracker.org www.newclimate.org 8

9. Content Global emission pathways towards 2°C Good practice in preparation of INDCs Intended Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCC Discussion paper Niklas Höhne, Christian Ellermann and Lina Li http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/intended-nationally-determined-contributions-under-the-unfccc/ www.newclimate.org 9 Forthcoming: Process guide for INDCs

10. What types of pledges were presented? Type Examples Economy wide emission reduction targets To base year: USA, EU, Japan To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea To GDP: China, India Energy targets China, Peru Policies Brazil, Argentina Projects Ethiopia www.newclimate.org 10

11. Frist inspirational goal, then national implementation Type Economy wide emission reduction targets Energy targets Policies Projects Examples: • Norway (40%) • Japan (25%) • Costa Rica (carbon neutral) • Maldives (carbon neutral) • South Korea (30% below BAU) Requirements • Ambitious global goal (2°C or phase out) • Strong national political leadership • Continued strong national implementation www.newclimate.org 11

12. National implementation (then national goal) 12 Type Economy wide emission reduction targets Energy targets Policies Projects Examples: • Development of specific NAMAs Requirements • Time for policy development • Knowing the options www.newclimate.org

13. Process to derive an INDC Political decision regarding INDC Prepare technical information Identify co-benefits and mitigation opportunities Evaluate costs and support needs www.newclimate.org 13 Package and present contribution Evaluate ambition Build leadership Create efficient processes Set up institutional arrangements Engage stakeholders

14. Elements of a national contribution Type Economy wide emission reduction targets Energy targets Policies Projects • National long term emissions goal • National short term emissions target • Energy / sectoral targets • Details on highlight policies and projects • Resource needs for their implementation • Intended provision of support • Explanations on ambition and equity www.newclimate.org 14

15. Examples on possible details of contributions Element Country with high capability Country with medium capability Country with low capability Inspirational national long term emissions goal Year of intended phase out of GHG emissions Long-term peak and decline pathway or range - National short term emissions target Precisely defined, economy wide, multi-year target until 2025 and/or 2030 Indication of mitigation ambition until 2025 and/or 2030 (below BAU, intensity, range) - Energy / sectoral targets National energy efficiency or renewable targets Targets related to land-use and forestry National energy efficiency or renewable targets Targets related to land-use and forestry National energy efficiency or renewable targets, if existing Highlight policies and projects Governance structures Highlight policies / projects with intended impacts Governance structures Highlight policies / projects with intended impacts Selection of a few, yet ambitious policies and/or projects International support needs for mitigation and adaptation - Precise purpose and value of support needed differentiated from actions without support Order of magnitude of support needed Intended provision of support for mitigation and adaptation Source, use and value of intended support Intended south-south provision of support - Explanations Detailed explanation why this contribution is an ambitious and equitable contribution to the global goal Explanation why this contribution is an ambitious and equitable contribution to the global goal - 15

16. Conclusions Current emission reduction proposals and nationally implemented policies for 2020 are not yet sufficient for a 2°C pathway First INDCs are being announced Preparation of INDCs: Stakeholder process More than one target Explanation why this is a fair and ambitious contribution www.newclimate.org 16

17. Backup www.newclimate.org 17

18. Experience from the past on mitigation commitments Diverse: Pledges are very diverse (economy wide targets to individual projects) Ambiguous: Pledges often were ambiguous and had to be clarified 2°C: Some pledges are influenced ranges needed for 2°C Japan -25%, Norway -40%, Mexico and South Korea 30% below BAU… National: Some pledges are also primarily driven by national discussions EU, USA, … Unchangeable: Pledges once made did not change No major economy has changed its pledge of 2009, although the gap is widely accepted Even countries that will over-achieve their pledge (new circumstances or more information) do not change it www.newclimate.org 18

19. What types of pledges were presented? Type Examples Characteristics Economy wide emission reduction targets To base year: USA, EU, Japan Full flexibility where to reduce emissions To BAU: Brazil, Mexico, Chile, South Korea Full flexibility where to reduce emissions Can factor in economic growth Creates a “moving target” if baseline changes To GDP: China, India Full flexibility where to reduce emissions Adaptive to changes in economic development Emission outcome uncertain Energy targets China, Peru Closer to actual actions than emission targets Policies Brazil, Argentina Directly under control of the government Projects Ethiopia Very detailed in scope www.newclimate.org 19

20. Ways to assess mitigation contributions by countries Comparison To BAU To effort sharing To mitigation potential Of decarbonisation indicators To good practice policy package / policy menu www.newclimate.org 3

21. Comparison to BAU BAU is counterfactual BAU includes many different developments Example Brazil 36.1% to 38.9% below BAU in 2020 www.newclimate.org 21

22. Comparison to effort sharing Large range of effort sharing approaches, e.g. per capita, carbon budgets, equal costs, … www.newclimate.org 5

23. Comparison to potential Large uncertainties Assumptions on base line? Assumptions on cost elements? Model used? Source: Fekete et al. 2013. Climate change mitigation in emerging economies: From potentials to actions. http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/sites/default/fil es/medien/378/publikationen/cc_19_2013_vorabe xemplar_fkz_3711_41_120_ueberarbeitet_12_12_ 13_.pdf www.newclimate.org 6

24. Comparison to decarbonisation indicators kWh/ cap Pledge CO2/ kWh Current policy Current policy Pledge Activity Required for 2°C Current best practice Global average 2010 2050 Required for 2°C Global average 2010 2050 Current best practice Intensity www.newclimate.org 7

25. Comparison to low carbon policy package Possible approach 1. Choose area of intervention 2. Identify BP incentives and barriers 3. Develop benchmarks 4. Rate policy against benchmark www.newclimate.org 25

26. Policy package (2) – example building sector- energy efficiency Indicator for incentives Benchmark for evaluating against best practice • Incentive (regulation, support and information) for use of efficient appliances, including air conditioning 4: 2-3% per year 0: No incentive Method: fraction of appliance covered and stringency of the standards (Japanese Top runner or ecodesign directive). If air conditioning is a major consumer, then buidling standards need to be considered) • Efficiency standards for new buildings for all types of buildings 4: Zero emissions buildings by 2014 2: Zero emissions buildings by 2020 0: No trajectory to zero energy buildings • Incentive for high retrofit rates for all types of existing buildings (for complete retrofit, i.e. full building envelope & upgrade supply system) 4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards 0: < 1 % per year • Policy for efficiency improvement for other than heating fuel uses (cooking, hot water use) 4: > 3% per year (average 2010-2020) and >2% afterwards 0: < 1 % per year • Level of energy and/or CO2 taxes (applicable to electricity fuel consumption in buildings) 4: tax is > 100% of energy price 0: no tax www.newclimate.org 26

27. Policy package (cont.) – final overview www.newclimate.org Source: Climate Action Tracker country assessment example 10

28. Complexity of analysis Comparison More simple >>>>>> More complex To BAU To effort sharing To mitigation potential Of decarbonisation indicators To good practice policy package / policy menu Downscale regional BAU Bottom up development of BAU Use IPCC effort sharing ranges Own effort sharing model Categorization of measures Bottom up modelling of MACC Use of existing literature Development of country specific indicators Application of existing policy menues Dev. of counrty spec. policy menues www.newclimate.org 11

29. Suitable approaches for different types of commitments Business as usual (BAU) Effort sharing Mitigation potential Decarboni-sation indicators Good practice policy package Inspirational national long term emissions goal National short term emissions target Energy / sectoral targets Highlight policies and projects www.newclimate.org Legend Primary Secondary 12

30. Ways to assess contributions Comparison Considerations To BAU • BAU is counterfactual To effort sharing • Wide rage of possible outcomes To mitigation potential • Costs compared to a BAU, which is counterfactual Of decarbonisation indicators • Forward looking, no BAU necessary • Indicators close to actions, specially on sectoral level To good practice policy package / policy menu • Forward looking, no BAU necessary • How is the package defined? www.newclimate.org 13

31. Comparison to effort sharing www.newclimate.org 31

Global emission pathways towards 2°C target: Good practices for the preparation of INDCs

Global emission pathways towards 2°C target: Good practices for the preparation of INDCs

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