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Course:     Urban Planning and Real Estate Markets
       Lecturer:   Prof. Karl Kluegel


       Student Name:     Nguyen Ngoc Anh
       Student Number: 2010-UDP-M-02




CLASS ASSIGNMENT

Individual Essay: Real Estate Market and Developments




                         Due date: August 30, 2011
LIM TOWER
9-11 Ton Duc Thang
    District 1
 Ho Chi Minh City




                 Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 1 | 16
Table of Contents

I.         INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 3
II.        BUILDING OVERVIEW/DESCRIPTION ................................................................................ 3
III.          METHOD OF EVALUATION .............................................................................................. 4
IV.           EVALUATION .................................................................................................................... 5
      1.      Design ................................................................................................................................ 5
      2.      Parking Capacity ................................................................................................................ 6
      3.      Traffic ................................................................................................................................. 7
      4.      Market Analysis .................................................................................................................. 8
      5.      Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................. 9
      6.      Social Impact.................................................................................................................... 14
      7.      Environmental friendly ...................................................................................................... 14
V.         CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................... 15
REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 16




                                                                                              Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 2 | 16
I.       INTRODUCTION
This paper is an individual part of the UDP2010-2012 class assignment. The objectives of the
class assignment are to analyze the impacts of a number of real estate projects on District 1
and on HCMC as a whole. To begin with, fifteen (15) projects are selected from the pending
project building presented in Vietnam Real Estate Update and Market Overview; Indigestion in
the Property Market by Townsend, M (2011). To the extent of this paper, the evaluation of the
LIM TOWER will be presented.



   II.      BUILDING OVERVIEW
The LIM TOWER is located at 9-11 Ton Duc Thang Street, at the conjunction of Ton Duc Thang
St, Nguyenn Huu Canh St, and Le Thanh Ton St, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City. The investment
capital is 37 million USD, and the developer is Mai Thanh Limited Company. The Tower will has
02 basements, 34 storey, with total building floor area is 33.300 m2, functioning as serviced
office building. It is estimated that The LIM TOWER project will completed in 24 months by
Quarter IV 2012.




                        Figure 1: Location map of the LIM TOWER
Summary information about the project is provided below:
   -     Investment Capital:   37 million US$
   -     Design:               CASA Vietnam LTD.
   -     Management:           APAVE Vietnam & ASIAN
   -     Constructor:          COTECCONS Group
   -     Monitor:              COTEBA (France)



                                                           Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 3 | 16
III.    METHOD OF EVALUATION
A set of criteria was discussed and finalized in class, when all 15 members agreed on the
relevance and effectiveness of these criteria. Moreover, the availability of information also affect
the selection of criteria for analysis. Seven (7) criteria were selected, showed in Table 1.

Methodologies to assess the LIM TOWER with the selected criteria are flexible for each
criterion. Literature reviews, current market reviews for critical comments is mostly used for all
criteria. Field observation is also applied for criteria: Design, Traffic, and Social Impact. For
criteria Parking capacity and economic analysis, the paper uses some technical calculation for
assessment.

Table 1: List of criteria
No. Criteria                     Notes on method               Applied    Ranking
                                                                          Good                 Bad
1      Design & image            Social harmony                           1   2   3       4     5
                                 Social status
2      Parking capacity          Calculation:                             1    2     3    4    5
                                 Motorbikes
                                 Cars
3      Traffic                   Accessibility                            1    2     3    4    5
                                 Mobility
4      Market analysis           Rental rate, occupancy                   1    2     3    4    5
                                 rate forecast
5      Economic analysis         Calculation                              1    2     3    4    5
                                 ROR, ROI, IRR
6      Social impact             At 500m radius                           1    2     3    4    5

7      Environmental friendly    Presence or not any                      1    2     3    4    5
                                 environmental standards

Each criterion, after being analyzed, is then given a ranking score, based on ranking of 5. This
will be one section of the general assessment of combined 15 projects.




                                                            Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 4 | 16
IV.     EVALUATION

Table 2: General information 1
Items                                              Value
Land area                                         1,917    m2
Plot ratio                                           16
GFA                                              33,300    m2
Parking - base                                    3,044    m2
Parking- upper                                    3,300    m2
Leasable GFA                                     30,000    m2
Office-1                                         17,000    m2– secured leased by Techcombank
Office -2                                        13,000    m2– open to market
Total development cost                       37,000,000    m2
(including land cost)
Owner Equity                                 11,100,000 Million US$
Bank loan                                    25,900,000 Million US$
Interest rate per annum (2011)                     20%


      1. Design & Image

                                               The fist assessment is social harmony, including
                                               harmony       with    close     environment,         culture
                                               representation, and general likeliness. The LIM
                                               TOWER is located in the boundary of the CBD of Ho
                                               Chi Minh Center. With the height of 126m and glassy
                                               design, it is a very typical office building. Together
                                               with a number of other high buildings in the area, the
                                               LIM TOWER contributes to the business and finance
                                               cultural representation.


                                               However, there have been many critiques about the
                                               emergence of many office buildings in Ho Chi Minh
                                               City to the landscape and urban planning of the city.
                                               Some architectural analysts expressed that these
                                               buildings now constitute to the “cloning urban” (Binh,


1
    Official letter No. 1893/SQHKT-QHKTT. Department of Planning and Architecture. July 15, 2010.

                                                                Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 5 | 16
2011). The Vietnamese characters are losing, when replacing by new skyscrapers. Architect
Chung (2011) criticized that rapid urbanization and no-clear-plan for high building, skyscrapers
has destroyed the architectural landscape of Ho Chi Minh City, which are critically valuable.
Finally, I believe that the LIM TOWER itself is not the only one building to blame, but together
nearby skyscrapers are responsible to break down the landscape harmony and historical value
of the area including the Ba Son Port, Bach Dang Quay, and the riversides.
Score: 4



      2. Parking Capacity
According to the building design, LIM TOWER will have two basements for car parking and four
storey for motorbike parking. Moreover, the construction of car parking will have technology for
two layers for each basement. The total area available for parking is summarized in table 3.


Table 3: Parking capacity at LIM TOWER
Type                            Number of               Area              Capacity
                                   storey                             (Car equivalent)

Car parking                           2               6,088 m2              195
Motorbike parking                     4               3,300 m2              128
Total                                                                       365


According to the TCVN 276:2003, Office Building-Design Standard 2 requires 300 car parking
plots for 30,000m2 office floor area. For that calculation, the LIM TOWER will provide efficient
parking area, for both the use of the building and surrounding area.
In 2011, it is reported that in HCMC there are approximately 500,000 cars (30% of total in
Vietnam) and 4.5 million motorbikes (15% of total in Vietnam). Furthermore, there are about
60,000 cars and 1 million motorbikes form other provinces travelling in HCMC. The need for
parking is essential important, and the construction of new buildings can contribute to the
parking area, while the existing area for parking can supply only 0.6% of the demand (Dung,
2011). Therefore, the LIM TOWER is one of a few office buildings in HCMC provide good
parking service.
Score: 2


2
    TCVN 276:2003 requires 1 car parking plot per 100m2 floor area

                                                                Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 6 | 16
3. Traffic
The LIM TOWER is located at the conjunction of Ton Duc Thang St, Nguyenn Huu Canh St,
and Le Thanh Ton St. The building has great advantages for its locations. Because the tower is
located at the boundary of CBD, it is at the hub of transportation to travel to other
districts/provinces (Figure 2).

The most significant point is that the LIM TOWER is only 200m away from the Station 3 of Metro
Line 2: Ben Thanh-Suoi Tien. Metro Line 1 has total 14 stations, and Station 3 is one in 3
underground stations on this line.

Secondly, from this location, it is only short distances to the Thu Thiem tunnel (completed by
end of 2011), and to Khanh Hoi bridge in order to travel to District 2 and District 4. Therefore,
the accessibility to LIM TOWER is relatively good.

The “bottle neck” conjunction at Le Thanh Ton and Ton Duc Thang is slightly a negative point
for LIM TOWER. There are usually congestion at this conjunction during rush hours. People
believe that with better traffic design and better driving behavior is the most effective solution.

Finally, Ton Duc Thang, Nguyen Huu Canh are big road used for trucks and containers to travel
out of town, however, this may not affect to the accessibility and mobility of the LIM TOWER as
these large vehicles are not allowed in city during office hours.

Score: 2




               Figure 2: Traffic map from LIM TOWER




                                                             Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 7 | 16
4. Market Analysis
    The LIM TOWER is classified as office building Grade B. Currently, from CBRE July 2011
    report 3 , the average rent for Office building B is $18.72 per spm per month. This section will
    analyze both pros and cons measures to evaluate the rent and the trend for leasing this project.
                                                   Pros:
                                                 As presented in the development plan 4 , the building will
                                                 provide 30 floors with 30,000 m2 for office leasing.
                                                 Among these, 17 floors (equivalent to 17,000m2) are
                                                 secured by contract with Techcombank, and the
                                                 remaining 13 floors are open to market. Therefore, the
                                                 LIM TOWER’s occupancy rate is always secured at
                                                 minimum 57%.
                                                 Another advantage of the LIM TOWER is its location
                                                 and parking capacity. These are presented in Section 2
                                                 & 3 (Parking capacity and Traffic). These criteria are
CBRE, Market View HCMC July 201
                                                 the plus for the rental rate for the LIM TOWER,
    compared to some other buildings at the same grade (Green Builidng, A&B Building).
    While vacancy rate of Grade A is 34.2%, vacancy rate of Grade B is lower at 15.8%. Moreover,
    it is forecasted that there will be new promising tenants for Grade B from State own enterprises
    and local enterprises upgrading from Grade C or below. Therefore, given the lower vacancy rate
    and larger tenant opportunities, the LIM TOWER can be assumed to have rental rate at 20 US$.

                                                                             Cons:
                                                             It is forecasted that by the 2013, new office
                                                             supply in HCMC will be 540,752m2, in which
                                                             202,655m2 will be Grade B. There will be
                                                             more competition among these new building
                                                             for their tenants.
                                                             Although leasing rental at the LIM TOWER
                                                             is forecasted to moderately higher than the
                                                             average rent rate of Grade B office, the
                                                             rental will still follow to the trend of the


  CBRE, Mid Year Market Review, July 2011
    3
        CBRE Market View Ho Chi Minh City July 2011
    4   Official letter No. 1893/SQHKT-QHKTT. Department of Planning and Architecture. July 15, 2010.

                                                                    Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 8 | 16
market. The rental rate for Grade B are now at level not seen since 2003 5 , and there is no
promising view for the substantial increase in price in the coming years, given the large market
supply and economic situation. As the changes in rental rate has been reducing since 2008, the
escalation rate would be slowly increased only if the recovery of the economy.
Study from CBRE also shows that the “new trend” for a tenant requirement is now moving from
“location” to “sustainable”, “design”, and “management” 6 . Therefore, having the advantages in
location and traffic do not necessarily provide the LIM TOWER from having a better rental rate
and an escalation rate in the long run.
Score: 2

      5. Economic Analysis
The LIM TOWER construction started in 2011 and it is expected to complete by Quarter IV
2013. With that plan, leasing will start in 2013. The calculations for evaluation are presented
from Table 4 to Table 9 as the following:

Table 4: Construction schedule and Capital structure
                                                        Year        2011         2012 
 Construction schedule                                               50%          50% 
Capital structure (US$)                                                    
Total development cost (including land cost)               18,500,000       18,500,000  
      Owner Equity                                  30%    11,100,000                   
      Bank loan                                     70%     7,400,000       18,500,000  

Table 5: Rough Estimate of Economic Feasibility
Items                                               Amount
 Project Cost (US$)                              37,000,000
Gross Rental Revenue at 100% Occupancy             8,316,000
    - 5% Vacancy Rate                              (415,800)
    - 20% Operate Cost                           (1,663,200)
Net Operate Income                                 6,237,000
Break Even ROR                                          17%

From the rough estimate of economic feasibility, the project is only economically feasible if the
investors require ROR ≤ 17%. However, the fact that the interest rate for loan is extremely high
at the last 4 months, from 20-26% per annum; thus with the break even ROR at 17%, the
project is not economically feasible. However, this calculation is taken for rough estimation at
one year, the more in-depth calculation throughout project years are as below.


5   CBRE Market View Ho Chi Minh City, July 2011
6
    Smith, N (2011) What if you build it and they don’t come?, March 17, 2011

                                                                 Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 9 | 16
Table 6: Bank loan during the construction period and repayment
                                Total       2011         2012         2013         2014         2015         2016         2017         2018        2019    2020

Loan at the beginning                   7,400,000   27,380,000   32,856,000   34,915,200   29,169,600   23,424,000   17,391,120   11,358,240   5,023,716      -

Interest rate 7                              20%         20%          20%          20%          20%          20%          20%          20%          20%

Interest                                1,480,000    5,476,000    6,571,200    6,983,040    5,833,920    4,684,800    3,478,224    2,271,648   1,004,743      -

Total payable              32,856,000           -            -    4,512,000    5,745,600    5,745,600    6,032,880    6,032,880    6,334,524   5,023,716      -

   Interest payable        21,615,792                             4,512,000    5,745,600    5,745,600    4,684,800    3,478,224     2271648    1004743.2      0

   Principal repayment     11,240,208                                     -            -            -    1,348,080    2,554,656     4062876    4018972.8      0

Loan at the end                         8,880,000   32,856,000   34,915,200   29,169,600   23,424,000   17,391,120   11,358,240     5023716           0       0




    7
        Assume that with the secure contract with Techcombank, the LIM TOWER project can achieve compatible interest rate at 20% per annum

                                                                                                             Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 10 | 16
Table 7: Revenue and expenses
                                                   2013        2014         2015        2016         2017          2018        2019         2020

Leasable area (m2)                               30,000      30,000       30,000      30,000       30,000        30,000      30,000       30,000

Escalation rate                                   0.00%          1%           1%          2%           2%            3%          3%           3%

Rent (US$ psm per month) 8                          20.0        20.0         20.2        20.4         20.8          21.2        21.9         22.5

Occupancy rate 9                                   78%         90%          90%          95%         95%           95%         95%          95%

Total revenue                                  5,640,000   6,908,400    6,977,484   7,117,034    7,259,374     7,477,156   7,701,470    7,932,514

Operating expenses 10 (20% of Total Revenue)   1,128,000   1,381,680    1,395,497   1,423,407    1,451,875     1,495,431   1,540,294    1,586,503

BTCFs from property operation                  4,512,000   5,745,600    5,745,600   6,032,880    6,032,880     6,334,524   6,334,524    6,334,524

BTCFs from selling property 11                                                                                                         63,345,240




    8
      From Section 4. Market analysis
    9
      Assume that occupancy rate will achieve 90% in year 2, and increasing to 95% in year 4, due to its advantages in office market
    10
       According to CBRE assumption and calculation
    11
       Calculation for selling property at year 8 of operation at 10%

                                                                                                             Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 11 | 16
Table 8: Profit and loss
                                 Note          2011          2012          2013          2014          2015         2016        2017        2018        2019        2020
BTCFs fr. property
operation                                           -             -    4,512,000     5,745,600     5,745,600    6,032,880   6,032,880   6,334,524   6,334,524   6,334,524
Depreciation and
amortization                               1,924,000     1,924,000     1,924,000     1,924,000     1,924,000    1,924,000   1,924,000   1,924,000   1,924,000   1,924,000

  Finishing and facilities     10 years    1,480,000     1,480,000     1,480,000     1,480,000     1,480,000    1,480,000   1,480,000   1,480,000   1,480,000   1,480,000

  Building and equipment       50 years      444,000       444,000       444,000       444,000       444,000     444,000     444,000     444,000     444,000     444,000

EBIT                                      (1,924,000)   (1,924,000)    2,588,000     3,821,600     3,821,600    4,108,880   4,108,880   4,410,524   4,410,524   4,410,524

Interest repayment                         1,480,000     5,476,000     6,571,200     6,983,040     5,833,920    4,684,800   3,478,224   2,271,648   1,004,743           -

EBT                                       (3,404,000)   (7,400,000)   (3,983,200)   (3,161,440)   (2,012,320)   (575,920)    630,656    2,138,876   3,405,781   4,410,524

Cooperate Income Tax 12            25%              -             -             -             -             -           -    157,664     534,719     851,445    1,102,631

Net profit                                (3,404,000)   (7,400,000)   (3,983,200)   (3,161,440)   (2,012,320)   (575,920)    472,992    1,604,157   2,554,336   3,307,893




        12
             Vietnam’s Cooperate Income Tax

                                                                                                                      Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 12 | 16
Table 9: Cashflow and Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
                                        2011              2012            2013            2014            2015            2016           2017            2018           2019          2020

Cash inflows                       7,400,000         18,500,000       4,512,000       5,745,600       5,745,600       6,032,880     6,032,880       6,334,524       6,334,524    69,679,764

Bank loan                          7,400,000         18,500,000

BTCFs fr. property operation                 -                -       4,512,000       5,745,600       5,745,600       6,032,880     6,032,880       6,334,524       6,334,524     6,334,524

BTCFs fr. selling property                   -                -               -               -               -               -               -               -             -    63,345,240

Cash outflows                     18,500,000         18,500,000       4,512,000       5,745,600       5,745,600       6,032,880     6,190,544       6,869,243       5,875,161     1,102,631

Development cost                  18,500,000         18,500,000

Loan repayment                               -                -       4,512,000       5,745,600       5,745,600       6,032,880     6,032,880       6,334,524       5,023,716                -

Cooperate Income Tax                         -                -               -               -               -               -       157,664         534,719         851,445     1,102,631

Net cashflows                     (11,100,000)   -                -               -               -               -               (157,664)       (534,719)       459,363       68,577,133

Return of Investment (ROI)                                               12.2%           15.5%           15.5%           16.3%          16.3%           17.1%          17.1%         17.1%

IRR = 22.32%




                                                                                                                           Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 13 | 16
The more in depth analysis show the Internal Rate of Return of the LIM TOWER project is at
22.32%, which is a relatively risk for the efficiency of the project, given the assumed interest rate
is at 20%.
Reports show that real estate market has been cold since last year, and has been going down
since May this year. When the Decision No.11 of Vietnam Government is strictly implemented,
inflation will come down in early 2012, following the decrease in interest rate. However, “the
fund from the bank may not be the miracle for the real estate market” (Lan, 2011). Loan for real
estate is reported at 9.94% of the bank outstanding loan, and this figure can get to 30-40% at
some small banks, which is very dangerous for the economy and the real estate market.
Moreover, the gold fever these months may also affect to the economy when the input money
are less in the market, slowing the decrease of the interest rate (VNExpress reporters, 2011).
Therefore, the strict monetary policy in bank credit is needed, ensure that the bank will only
untie credit to projects that are secure and liquidity.
Score: 4



   6. Social Impact
This section will assess the social impact by the LIM TOWER to the radius of 500m. The LIM
TOWER is located in the conjunction between three main streets: Ton Duc Thang, Nguyen Huu
Canh, and Le Thanh Ton.
Food/restaurants and other services are the main possibility for the impact to the surrounding
residence. The fact that Ton Duc Thang and Nguyen Huu Canh are the main big streets, closing
to Ba Son Port, with very few residential ling. Therefore the social impact is expected to very
low. Lastly, at the other direction, Le Thanh Ton and other small streets nearby are already the
center for food and restaurants for the existing surrounding office building. In conclusion, there
may be no negative social impact from the LIM TOWER.
Score: 3



   7. Environmental friendly
Whether the building is built with an “environmental friendly” rating system is a key assessment
for this criterion. At first review, the LIM TOWER does not apply any “green construction” or
“sustainable building” standards such as LEED or Lotus.
Energy is now a critical issue for Ho Chi Minh City. Generally, the emergence of this 34 storey
building will require a large energy consumption, which would increase the short of energy for

                                                           Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 14 | 16
the City. There is no information available showing clearly the construction of the LIM TOWER
achieves any significant figures in sustainable materials, energy and water conservation, etc.
This would be the limitation in information access in order to make a stronger assessment for
this criterion.
Score: 3



    V.       CONCLUSION
The paper has analyze the LIM TOWER, to the extent of seven criteria selected by the group
exercise. Table 10 presents the summary results of the analysis.


Table 10: Summary results of the evaluation
No. Criteria Ranking                1    2     3    4    5         Applied
                                    Good                Bad
1      Design                        1    2    3    4     5
2      Parking Capacity              1    2    3    4    5
3      Traffic                       1    2    3    4    5
4      Market analysis               1    2    3    4    5
5      Economic analysis             1    2    3    4     5
6      Social impact                 1    2    3    4    5
7      Environmental friendly        1    2    3    4    5
8      Total Score                                                     20

In conclusion, the LIM TOWER accounts for some advantages in their project, i.e. location,
traffic, car-parking capacity, secured occupancy rate. However, with the condition of current
economy, such as high interest rate, this project still faces many challenges. Understanding the
market, the economy, improving the quality of the building (sustainable design and/or
management) can help the LIM TOWER become more competitive in the office building market.




                                                        Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 15 | 16
REFERENCES

Binh, X. (2011) Đô thị vô tính (Cloning Urban). The Sai Gon Times Online.
http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/diendan/ykien/57171/Do-thi-vo-tinh.html. July 19, 2011.


CBRE (2011) Market View Ho Chi Minh City. July 2011.


CBRE (2011) Mid Year Market Review, July 5, 2011.


Smith, N. (2011) What if you build it and they don’t come?. CBRE report. March 17, 2011.


Chung, Q. (2011) Nâng cấp đô thị và chuyện bản sắc (Urban upgrading and the issue of urban
characteristics). The Sai Gon Times Online. http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/xahoi/sukien
/57168/Nang-cap-do-thi-va-chuyen-ban-sac.html. July 15, 2011.


Currie, C (2011) CBRE HCMC Market Q2 2011, June 28, 2011.


Lan, H. (2011) Vốn ngân hàng không là phép tiên với bất động sản (Bank loan may not be
miracle for real estate). VNExpress. http://vnexpress.net/gl/kinh-doanh/bat-dong-san
/2011/08/von-ngan-hang-khong-la-phep-tien-voi-bat-dong-san/. August 21, 2011.

Reporter group (2011) Cơn sốt vàng và những thử thách đồi với nền kinh tế (Gold fever and
challenges to the economy). VNExpress. http://vnexpress.net/gl/kinh-doanh/2011/08/con-sot-
vang-va-nhung-thu-thach-doi-voi-nen-kinh-te/. August 24, 2011.

Si Dung (2011) “Khát” bãi đậu xe (Thirsty for car parking). Vietnam News.
http://www.baomoi.com/Home/DauTu-QuyHoach/baotintuc.vn/Khat-bai-dau-xe/6416173.epi.
June 9, 2011.


Townsend, M. (2011) Vietnam Real Estate Update and Market Overview; Indigestion in the
Property Market. April 4, 2011.




                                                        Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 16 | 16

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N.anh lim tower

  • 1. Course: Urban Planning and Real Estate Markets Lecturer: Prof. Karl Kluegel Student Name: Nguyen Ngoc Anh Student Number: 2010-UDP-M-02 CLASS ASSIGNMENT Individual Essay: Real Estate Market and Developments Due date: August 30, 2011
  • 2. LIM TOWER 9-11 Ton Duc Thang District 1 Ho Chi Minh City Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 1 | 16
  • 3. Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 3 II. BUILDING OVERVIEW/DESCRIPTION ................................................................................ 3 III. METHOD OF EVALUATION .............................................................................................. 4 IV. EVALUATION .................................................................................................................... 5 1. Design ................................................................................................................................ 5 2. Parking Capacity ................................................................................................................ 6 3. Traffic ................................................................................................................................. 7 4. Market Analysis .................................................................................................................. 8 5. Economic Analysis ............................................................................................................. 9 6. Social Impact.................................................................................................................... 14 7. Environmental friendly ...................................................................................................... 14 V. CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................... 15 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 16 Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 2 | 16
  • 4. I. INTRODUCTION This paper is an individual part of the UDP2010-2012 class assignment. The objectives of the class assignment are to analyze the impacts of a number of real estate projects on District 1 and on HCMC as a whole. To begin with, fifteen (15) projects are selected from the pending project building presented in Vietnam Real Estate Update and Market Overview; Indigestion in the Property Market by Townsend, M (2011). To the extent of this paper, the evaluation of the LIM TOWER will be presented. II. BUILDING OVERVIEW The LIM TOWER is located at 9-11 Ton Duc Thang Street, at the conjunction of Ton Duc Thang St, Nguyenn Huu Canh St, and Le Thanh Ton St, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City. The investment capital is 37 million USD, and the developer is Mai Thanh Limited Company. The Tower will has 02 basements, 34 storey, with total building floor area is 33.300 m2, functioning as serviced office building. It is estimated that The LIM TOWER project will completed in 24 months by Quarter IV 2012. Figure 1: Location map of the LIM TOWER Summary information about the project is provided below: - Investment Capital: 37 million US$ - Design: CASA Vietnam LTD. - Management: APAVE Vietnam & ASIAN - Constructor: COTECCONS Group - Monitor: COTEBA (France) Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 3 | 16
  • 5. III. METHOD OF EVALUATION A set of criteria was discussed and finalized in class, when all 15 members agreed on the relevance and effectiveness of these criteria. Moreover, the availability of information also affect the selection of criteria for analysis. Seven (7) criteria were selected, showed in Table 1. Methodologies to assess the LIM TOWER with the selected criteria are flexible for each criterion. Literature reviews, current market reviews for critical comments is mostly used for all criteria. Field observation is also applied for criteria: Design, Traffic, and Social Impact. For criteria Parking capacity and economic analysis, the paper uses some technical calculation for assessment. Table 1: List of criteria No. Criteria Notes on method Applied Ranking Good Bad 1 Design & image Social harmony 1 2 3 4 5 Social status 2 Parking capacity Calculation: 1 2 3 4 5 Motorbikes Cars 3 Traffic Accessibility 1 2 3 4 5 Mobility 4 Market analysis Rental rate, occupancy 1 2 3 4 5 rate forecast 5 Economic analysis Calculation 1 2 3 4 5 ROR, ROI, IRR 6 Social impact At 500m radius 1 2 3 4 5 7 Environmental friendly Presence or not any 1 2 3 4 5 environmental standards Each criterion, after being analyzed, is then given a ranking score, based on ranking of 5. This will be one section of the general assessment of combined 15 projects. Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 4 | 16
  • 6. IV. EVALUATION Table 2: General information 1 Items Value Land area 1,917 m2 Plot ratio 16 GFA 33,300 m2 Parking - base 3,044 m2 Parking- upper 3,300 m2 Leasable GFA 30,000 m2 Office-1 17,000 m2– secured leased by Techcombank Office -2 13,000 m2– open to market Total development cost 37,000,000 m2 (including land cost) Owner Equity 11,100,000 Million US$ Bank loan 25,900,000 Million US$ Interest rate per annum (2011) 20% 1. Design & Image The fist assessment is social harmony, including harmony with close environment, culture representation, and general likeliness. The LIM TOWER is located in the boundary of the CBD of Ho Chi Minh Center. With the height of 126m and glassy design, it is a very typical office building. Together with a number of other high buildings in the area, the LIM TOWER contributes to the business and finance cultural representation. However, there have been many critiques about the emergence of many office buildings in Ho Chi Minh City to the landscape and urban planning of the city. Some architectural analysts expressed that these buildings now constitute to the “cloning urban” (Binh, 1 Official letter No. 1893/SQHKT-QHKTT. Department of Planning and Architecture. July 15, 2010. Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 5 | 16
  • 7. 2011). The Vietnamese characters are losing, when replacing by new skyscrapers. Architect Chung (2011) criticized that rapid urbanization and no-clear-plan for high building, skyscrapers has destroyed the architectural landscape of Ho Chi Minh City, which are critically valuable. Finally, I believe that the LIM TOWER itself is not the only one building to blame, but together nearby skyscrapers are responsible to break down the landscape harmony and historical value of the area including the Ba Son Port, Bach Dang Quay, and the riversides. Score: 4 2. Parking Capacity According to the building design, LIM TOWER will have two basements for car parking and four storey for motorbike parking. Moreover, the construction of car parking will have technology for two layers for each basement. The total area available for parking is summarized in table 3. Table 3: Parking capacity at LIM TOWER Type Number of Area Capacity storey (Car equivalent) Car parking 2 6,088 m2 195 Motorbike parking 4 3,300 m2 128 Total 365 According to the TCVN 276:2003, Office Building-Design Standard 2 requires 300 car parking plots for 30,000m2 office floor area. For that calculation, the LIM TOWER will provide efficient parking area, for both the use of the building and surrounding area. In 2011, it is reported that in HCMC there are approximately 500,000 cars (30% of total in Vietnam) and 4.5 million motorbikes (15% of total in Vietnam). Furthermore, there are about 60,000 cars and 1 million motorbikes form other provinces travelling in HCMC. The need for parking is essential important, and the construction of new buildings can contribute to the parking area, while the existing area for parking can supply only 0.6% of the demand (Dung, 2011). Therefore, the LIM TOWER is one of a few office buildings in HCMC provide good parking service. Score: 2 2 TCVN 276:2003 requires 1 car parking plot per 100m2 floor area Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 6 | 16
  • 8. 3. Traffic The LIM TOWER is located at the conjunction of Ton Duc Thang St, Nguyenn Huu Canh St, and Le Thanh Ton St. The building has great advantages for its locations. Because the tower is located at the boundary of CBD, it is at the hub of transportation to travel to other districts/provinces (Figure 2). The most significant point is that the LIM TOWER is only 200m away from the Station 3 of Metro Line 2: Ben Thanh-Suoi Tien. Metro Line 1 has total 14 stations, and Station 3 is one in 3 underground stations on this line. Secondly, from this location, it is only short distances to the Thu Thiem tunnel (completed by end of 2011), and to Khanh Hoi bridge in order to travel to District 2 and District 4. Therefore, the accessibility to LIM TOWER is relatively good. The “bottle neck” conjunction at Le Thanh Ton and Ton Duc Thang is slightly a negative point for LIM TOWER. There are usually congestion at this conjunction during rush hours. People believe that with better traffic design and better driving behavior is the most effective solution. Finally, Ton Duc Thang, Nguyen Huu Canh are big road used for trucks and containers to travel out of town, however, this may not affect to the accessibility and mobility of the LIM TOWER as these large vehicles are not allowed in city during office hours. Score: 2 Figure 2: Traffic map from LIM TOWER Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 7 | 16
  • 9. 4. Market Analysis The LIM TOWER is classified as office building Grade B. Currently, from CBRE July 2011 report 3 , the average rent for Office building B is $18.72 per spm per month. This section will analyze both pros and cons measures to evaluate the rent and the trend for leasing this project. Pros: As presented in the development plan 4 , the building will provide 30 floors with 30,000 m2 for office leasing. Among these, 17 floors (equivalent to 17,000m2) are secured by contract with Techcombank, and the remaining 13 floors are open to market. Therefore, the LIM TOWER’s occupancy rate is always secured at minimum 57%. Another advantage of the LIM TOWER is its location and parking capacity. These are presented in Section 2 & 3 (Parking capacity and Traffic). These criteria are CBRE, Market View HCMC July 201 the plus for the rental rate for the LIM TOWER, compared to some other buildings at the same grade (Green Builidng, A&B Building). While vacancy rate of Grade A is 34.2%, vacancy rate of Grade B is lower at 15.8%. Moreover, it is forecasted that there will be new promising tenants for Grade B from State own enterprises and local enterprises upgrading from Grade C or below. Therefore, given the lower vacancy rate and larger tenant opportunities, the LIM TOWER can be assumed to have rental rate at 20 US$. Cons: It is forecasted that by the 2013, new office supply in HCMC will be 540,752m2, in which 202,655m2 will be Grade B. There will be more competition among these new building for their tenants. Although leasing rental at the LIM TOWER is forecasted to moderately higher than the average rent rate of Grade B office, the rental will still follow to the trend of the CBRE, Mid Year Market Review, July 2011 3 CBRE Market View Ho Chi Minh City July 2011 4 Official letter No. 1893/SQHKT-QHKTT. Department of Planning and Architecture. July 15, 2010. Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 8 | 16
  • 10. market. The rental rate for Grade B are now at level not seen since 2003 5 , and there is no promising view for the substantial increase in price in the coming years, given the large market supply and economic situation. As the changes in rental rate has been reducing since 2008, the escalation rate would be slowly increased only if the recovery of the economy. Study from CBRE also shows that the “new trend” for a tenant requirement is now moving from “location” to “sustainable”, “design”, and “management” 6 . Therefore, having the advantages in location and traffic do not necessarily provide the LIM TOWER from having a better rental rate and an escalation rate in the long run. Score: 2 5. Economic Analysis The LIM TOWER construction started in 2011 and it is expected to complete by Quarter IV 2013. With that plan, leasing will start in 2013. The calculations for evaluation are presented from Table 4 to Table 9 as the following: Table 4: Construction schedule and Capital structure Year        2011 2012   Construction schedule     50% 50%  Capital structure (US$)           Total development cost (including land cost)     18,500,000  18,500,000         Owner Equity   30% 11,100,000           Bank loan  70% 7,400,000  18,500,000   Table 5: Rough Estimate of Economic Feasibility Items  Amount  Project Cost (US$)  37,000,000 Gross Rental Revenue at 100% Occupancy  8,316,000 - 5% Vacancy Rate  (415,800) - 20% Operate Cost  (1,663,200) Net Operate Income  6,237,000 Break Even ROR  17% From the rough estimate of economic feasibility, the project is only economically feasible if the investors require ROR ≤ 17%. However, the fact that the interest rate for loan is extremely high at the last 4 months, from 20-26% per annum; thus with the break even ROR at 17%, the project is not economically feasible. However, this calculation is taken for rough estimation at one year, the more in-depth calculation throughout project years are as below. 5 CBRE Market View Ho Chi Minh City, July 2011 6 Smith, N (2011) What if you build it and they don’t come?, March 17, 2011 Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 9 | 16
  • 11. Table 6: Bank loan during the construction period and repayment Total 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Loan at the beginning 7,400,000 27,380,000 32,856,000 34,915,200 29,169,600 23,424,000 17,391,120 11,358,240 5,023,716 - Interest rate 7 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Interest 1,480,000 5,476,000 6,571,200 6,983,040 5,833,920 4,684,800 3,478,224 2,271,648 1,004,743 - Total payable 32,856,000 - - 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 6,032,880 6,032,880 6,334,524 5,023,716 - Interest payable 21,615,792 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 4,684,800 3,478,224 2271648 1004743.2 0 Principal repayment 11,240,208 - - - 1,348,080 2,554,656 4062876 4018972.8 0 Loan at the end 8,880,000 32,856,000 34,915,200 29,169,600 23,424,000 17,391,120 11,358,240 5023716 0 0 7 Assume that with the secure contract with Techcombank, the LIM TOWER project can achieve compatible interest rate at 20% per annum Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 10 | 16
  • 12. Table 7: Revenue and expenses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Leasable area (m2) 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 Escalation rate 0.00% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% Rent (US$ psm per month) 8 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.9 22.5 Occupancy rate 9 78% 90% 90% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95% Total revenue 5,640,000 6,908,400 6,977,484 7,117,034 7,259,374 7,477,156 7,701,470 7,932,514 Operating expenses 10 (20% of Total Revenue) 1,128,000 1,381,680 1,395,497 1,423,407 1,451,875 1,495,431 1,540,294 1,586,503 BTCFs from property operation 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 6,032,880 6,032,880 6,334,524 6,334,524 6,334,524 BTCFs from selling property 11 63,345,240 8 From Section 4. Market analysis 9 Assume that occupancy rate will achieve 90% in year 2, and increasing to 95% in year 4, due to its advantages in office market 10 According to CBRE assumption and calculation 11 Calculation for selling property at year 8 of operation at 10% Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 11 | 16
  • 13. Table 8: Profit and loss Note 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 BTCFs fr. property operation - - 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 6,032,880 6,032,880 6,334,524 6,334,524 6,334,524 Depreciation and amortization 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 1,924,000 Finishing and facilities 10 years 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 1,480,000 Building and equipment 50 years 444,000 444,000 444,000 444,000 444,000 444,000 444,000 444,000 444,000 444,000 EBIT (1,924,000) (1,924,000) 2,588,000 3,821,600 3,821,600 4,108,880 4,108,880 4,410,524 4,410,524 4,410,524 Interest repayment 1,480,000 5,476,000 6,571,200 6,983,040 5,833,920 4,684,800 3,478,224 2,271,648 1,004,743 - EBT (3,404,000) (7,400,000) (3,983,200) (3,161,440) (2,012,320) (575,920) 630,656 2,138,876 3,405,781 4,410,524 Cooperate Income Tax 12 25% - - - - - - 157,664 534,719 851,445 1,102,631 Net profit (3,404,000) (7,400,000) (3,983,200) (3,161,440) (2,012,320) (575,920) 472,992 1,604,157 2,554,336 3,307,893 12 Vietnam’s Cooperate Income Tax Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 12 | 16
  • 14. Table 9: Cashflow and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Cash inflows 7,400,000 18,500,000 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 6,032,880 6,032,880 6,334,524 6,334,524 69,679,764 Bank loan 7,400,000 18,500,000 BTCFs fr. property operation - - 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 6,032,880 6,032,880 6,334,524 6,334,524 6,334,524 BTCFs fr. selling property - - - - - - - - - 63,345,240 Cash outflows 18,500,000 18,500,000 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 6,032,880 6,190,544 6,869,243 5,875,161 1,102,631 Development cost 18,500,000 18,500,000 Loan repayment - - 4,512,000 5,745,600 5,745,600 6,032,880 6,032,880 6,334,524 5,023,716 - Cooperate Income Tax - - - - - - 157,664 534,719 851,445 1,102,631 Net cashflows (11,100,000) - - - - - (157,664) (534,719) 459,363 68,577,133 Return of Investment (ROI) 12.2% 15.5% 15.5% 16.3% 16.3% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% IRR = 22.32% Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 13 | 16
  • 15. The more in depth analysis show the Internal Rate of Return of the LIM TOWER project is at 22.32%, which is a relatively risk for the efficiency of the project, given the assumed interest rate is at 20%. Reports show that real estate market has been cold since last year, and has been going down since May this year. When the Decision No.11 of Vietnam Government is strictly implemented, inflation will come down in early 2012, following the decrease in interest rate. However, “the fund from the bank may not be the miracle for the real estate market” (Lan, 2011). Loan for real estate is reported at 9.94% of the bank outstanding loan, and this figure can get to 30-40% at some small banks, which is very dangerous for the economy and the real estate market. Moreover, the gold fever these months may also affect to the economy when the input money are less in the market, slowing the decrease of the interest rate (VNExpress reporters, 2011). Therefore, the strict monetary policy in bank credit is needed, ensure that the bank will only untie credit to projects that are secure and liquidity. Score: 4 6. Social Impact This section will assess the social impact by the LIM TOWER to the radius of 500m. The LIM TOWER is located in the conjunction between three main streets: Ton Duc Thang, Nguyen Huu Canh, and Le Thanh Ton. Food/restaurants and other services are the main possibility for the impact to the surrounding residence. The fact that Ton Duc Thang and Nguyen Huu Canh are the main big streets, closing to Ba Son Port, with very few residential ling. Therefore the social impact is expected to very low. Lastly, at the other direction, Le Thanh Ton and other small streets nearby are already the center for food and restaurants for the existing surrounding office building. In conclusion, there may be no negative social impact from the LIM TOWER. Score: 3 7. Environmental friendly Whether the building is built with an “environmental friendly” rating system is a key assessment for this criterion. At first review, the LIM TOWER does not apply any “green construction” or “sustainable building” standards such as LEED or Lotus. Energy is now a critical issue for Ho Chi Minh City. Generally, the emergence of this 34 storey building will require a large energy consumption, which would increase the short of energy for Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 14 | 16
  • 16. the City. There is no information available showing clearly the construction of the LIM TOWER achieves any significant figures in sustainable materials, energy and water conservation, etc. This would be the limitation in information access in order to make a stronger assessment for this criterion. Score: 3 V. CONCLUSION The paper has analyze the LIM TOWER, to the extent of seven criteria selected by the group exercise. Table 10 presents the summary results of the analysis. Table 10: Summary results of the evaluation No. Criteria Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 Applied Good Bad 1 Design 1 2 3 4 5 2 Parking Capacity 1 2 3 4 5 3 Traffic 1 2 3 4 5 4 Market analysis 1 2 3 4 5 5 Economic analysis 1 2 3 4 5 6 Social impact 1 2 3 4 5 7 Environmental friendly 1 2 3 4 5 8 Total Score 20 In conclusion, the LIM TOWER accounts for some advantages in their project, i.e. location, traffic, car-parking capacity, secured occupancy rate. However, with the condition of current economy, such as high interest rate, this project still faces many challenges. Understanding the market, the economy, improving the quality of the building (sustainable design and/or management) can help the LIM TOWER become more competitive in the office building market. Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 15 | 16
  • 17. REFERENCES Binh, X. (2011) Đô thị vô tính (Cloning Urban). The Sai Gon Times Online. http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/diendan/ykien/57171/Do-thi-vo-tinh.html. July 19, 2011. CBRE (2011) Market View Ho Chi Minh City. July 2011. CBRE (2011) Mid Year Market Review, July 5, 2011. Smith, N. (2011) What if you build it and they don’t come?. CBRE report. March 17, 2011. Chung, Q. (2011) Nâng cấp đô thị và chuyện bản sắc (Urban upgrading and the issue of urban characteristics). The Sai Gon Times Online. http://www.thesaigontimes.vn/Home/xahoi/sukien /57168/Nang-cap-do-thi-va-chuyen-ban-sac.html. July 15, 2011. Currie, C (2011) CBRE HCMC Market Q2 2011, June 28, 2011. Lan, H. (2011) Vốn ngân hàng không là phép tiên với bất động sản (Bank loan may not be miracle for real estate). VNExpress. http://vnexpress.net/gl/kinh-doanh/bat-dong-san /2011/08/von-ngan-hang-khong-la-phep-tien-voi-bat-dong-san/. August 21, 2011. Reporter group (2011) Cơn sốt vàng và những thử thách đồi với nền kinh tế (Gold fever and challenges to the economy). VNExpress. http://vnexpress.net/gl/kinh-doanh/2011/08/con-sot- vang-va-nhung-thu-thach-doi-voi-nen-kinh-te/. August 24, 2011. Si Dung (2011) “Khát” bãi đậu xe (Thirsty for car parking). Vietnam News. http://www.baomoi.com/Home/DauTu-QuyHoach/baotintuc.vn/Khat-bai-dau-xe/6416173.epi. June 9, 2011. Townsend, M. (2011) Vietnam Real Estate Update and Market Overview; Indigestion in the Property Market. April 4, 2011. Nguyen Ngoc Anh – LIM TOWER – 16 | 16