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Why	
  the	
  opportunity	
  
for	
  RCS	
  is	
  now	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
	
  
24	
  February	
  2019	
  
Gavin	
  Pa>erson...
About	
  Mobilesquared	
  
Leading	
  analysts	
  in	
  Business	
  Messaging	
  
We	
  provide	
  definiOve	
  data	
  and...
@Mobilesquared	
  
Messaging	
  user	
  landscape	
  
P2P	
  MESSAGING	
  APPS	
  
1	
  bil	
  
2	
  bil	
  
3	
  bil	
  
...
TOTAL	
  DEVICES	
  
Mobile	
  operator	
  messaging	
  perspecOve	
  
MESSAGING	
  POTENTIAL	
  JAN	
  2019	
  
1	
  bil	...
RCS	
  business	
  messaging	
  landscape	
  
RCS	
  GROWTH	
  P2P	
  /	
  A2P	
  USERS,	
  2018	
  -­‐	
  2023	
  
1	
  b...
RCS	
  A2P	
  breakdown	
  
NATIVE	
  vs	
  DOWNLOADABLES	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  500,000,000	
  	
  
	
  1,000,00...
Business	
  messaging	
  spend	
  (US$)	
  
MESSAGING	
  APPS	
  END	
  2018,	
  ARPU	
  
5	
  bil	
  
10	
  bil	
  
15	
 ...
A	
  world	
  without	
  RCS	
  
Total	
  A2P	
  SMS	
  SPEND	
  (US$)	
  
@Mobilesquared	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  ...
Mobile	
  operator	
  business	
  messaging	
  evoluOon	
  
The	
  impact	
  of	
  RCS	
  (US$)	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
 ...
Total	
  business	
  messaging	
  (SMS	
  +	
  RCS)	
  
INCOME	
  (US$)	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  5	
  	
  
	
  10	
...
 -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  5	
  	
  
	
  10	
  	
  
	
  15	
  	
  
	
  20	
  	
  
	
  25	
  	
  
	
  30	
  	
  
	
  35	
  	
...
Cloud	
  hosted	
  partner	
  RCS	
  model	
  
Mobile	
  operator	
  +	
  aggregator	
  +	
  cloud	
  host	
  partner	
  i...
OTT	
  cloud	
  hosted	
  partner	
  RCS	
  model	
  
Mobile	
  operator	
  +	
  cloud	
  host	
  partner	
  income	
  
	
...
Top	
  10	
  RCS	
  business	
  messaging	
  rev	
  gen	
  mobile	
  operators	
  in	
  2023	
  
	
  
@Mobilesquared	
  
T...
SMS	
  /	
  RCS	
  ARPU	
  comparison	
  
(US$)	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  	
  	
  
	
  5	
  	
  
	
  10	
  	
  
	
  15	
  	
  
	
...
AlternaOve	
  business	
  models	
  
ADVERTISING	
  &	
  SEARCH	
  SCENARIOS	
  
@Mobilesquared	
  
	
  0.82	
  	
  
	
  3...
RCS	
  engagement	
  levels	
  
PER	
  MONTH	
  
By	
  2023	
  consumers	
  will	
  be	
  engaging	
  with	
  brands	
  vi...
RCS	
  engagement	
  touchpoints	
  
A2P	
  /	
  P2A	
  ACTIVITY	
  2023,	
  PER	
  MONTH	
  
A2P	
  acOvity	
  
PER	
  EV...
Threat	
  of	
  WhatsApp	
  to	
  mobile	
  operators	
  
THE	
  JUGGERNAUT	
  HAS	
  DEPARTED	
  
	
  -­‐	
  	
  
	
  2	
...
The	
  real	
  RCS	
  opportunity	
  
TIME	
  TO	
  DELIVER	
  
Market	
  worth	
  £16.2	
  billion	
  in	
  2023	
  
(Bas...
Why	
  make	
  Mobilesquared	
  your	
  business	
  messaging	
  partner	
  
RCS	
  forecasts	
  covering	
  P2P/A2P	
  la...
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Why the opportunity for RCS is now: RCS Business Messaging market forecasts to 2023 by Mobilesquared

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Mobilesquared reveals latest RCS business messaging market forecasts, at Mobile World Congress Barcelona, 2019. Includes forecasts to 2023 for consumer engagement frequency by month, business messaging revenues, top 10 mobile operators by business messaging revenues, impact of WhatsApp on mobile operators and more.

Publié dans : Mobile
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Why the opportunity for RCS is now: RCS Business Messaging market forecasts to 2023 by Mobilesquared

  1. 1. Why  the  opportunity   for  RCS  is  now           24  February  2019   Gavin  Pa>erson   Chief  Data  Analyst,  Mobilesquared   gavin@mobilesquared.co.uk   @Mobilesquared  
  2. 2. About  Mobilesquared   Leading  analysts  in  Business  Messaging   We  provide  definiOve  data  and  expert  insight   We  work  with  the  leading  mobile  and  tech  companies  across  the  mobile  ecosystem,  from  regulators,   mobile  operators,  service  providers,  brands,  agencies,  start-­‐ups  …  to  understand  mobile  and  engagement.     We  do  this  through  extensive  research,  deep  analysis  based  on  years  of  experience,  and  forecas>ng   market  opportuni>es  based  on  ac>onable  numbers.       Accurate  data.  No  hype.     www.mobilesquared.co.uk                    @Mobilesquared  
  3. 3. @Mobilesquared   Messaging  user  landscape   P2P  MESSAGING  APPS   1  bil   2  bil   3  bil   4  bil   1.2  bil   1.5  bil   4  bil   1.1  bil   1  bil   0.8  bil   0.3  bil   0.2  bil   USERS   OTT  pressure  mounOng  but  mobile  operators   sOll  have  greatest  reach   0.2  bil  
  4. 4. TOTAL  DEVICES   Mobile  operator  messaging  perspecOve   MESSAGING  POTENTIAL  JAN  2019   1  bil   2  bil   3  bil   4  bil   4  bil   M O B I L E   O P E R A T O R   M E S S A G I N G   R C S   MESSAGING  POTENTIAL   USERS     RCS     A N D R O I D   S M A R T P H O N E S   A B C   3.5  bil   2.8  bil   0.9  bil   0.7  bil  
  5. 5. RCS  business  messaging  landscape   RCS  GROWTH  P2P  /  A2P  USERS,  2018  -­‐  2023   1  bil   2  bil   3  bil   P2P   TIME     RCS       RCS       RCS     P2P  MAUs     RCS      $     RCS      $     RCS      $   22%   POTENTIAL  RCS  MAUs   1%   94%  85%   %  OF  TOTAL   POTENTIAL   P2P   A2P   USERS  
  6. 6. RCS  A2P  breakdown   NATIVE  vs  DOWNLOADABLES    -­‐          500,000,000      1,000,000,000      1,500,000,000      2,000,000,000      2,500,000,000      3,000,000,000     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   The  dominance  of  na>ve   A2P  na>ve   A2P  download   Total  RCS  A2P     8.3%   40.2%   56.1%   76.8%   87.5%   94.2%   MaaP  (A2P/UP2.0)   launches  as  %  of  P2P   RCS  rollouts   @Mobilesquared  
  7. 7. Business  messaging  spend  (US$)   MESSAGING  APPS  END  2018,  ARPU   5  bil   10  bil   15  bil   20  bil                                                 SMS  ARPU   US$3.61   Mobile  operators  dominate  business  messaging  revenues     OTT  ARPU  ?   US$17.02  
  8. 8. A  world  without  RCS   Total  A2P  SMS  SPEND  (US$)   @Mobilesquared    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     Total   US$28.7  
  9. 9. Mobile  operator  business  messaging  evoluOon   The  impact  of  RCS  (US$)    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   @Mobilesquared   US$25.3  
  10. 10. Total  business  messaging  (SMS  +  RCS)   INCOME  (US$)    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS   @Mobilesquared   US$41.4  
  11. 11.  -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS   In-­‐network  RCS  model   Mobile  operator  +  aggregator  income   @Mobilesquared   No  revenue  share,  mobile  operator  controlled  ecosystem  keeps   100%,  with  aggregator  partner/s  selling  to  brands/enterprise    
  12. 12. Cloud  hosted  partner  RCS  model   Mobile  operator  +  aggregator  +  cloud  host  partner  income    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS  MNO  share   Cloud  hosted  partner   @Mobilesquared   Revenue  share  based  on  cloud  host  partner  receiving  40%  of  revenues   from  session/campaign  based  spend,  with  aggregator  partner/s  selling   to  brands/enterprise  
  13. 13. OTT  cloud  hosted  partner  RCS  model   Mobile  operator  +  cloud  host  partner  income    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS  MNO  share   OTT  Cloud  hosted  partner   @Mobilesquared   Revenue  share  based  on  cloud  host  partner  receiving  60%  of  revenues  from   session/campaign  based  spend,  which  includes  selling  to  brands/enterprise  
  14. 14. Top  10  RCS  business  messaging  rev  gen  mobile  operators  in  2023     @Mobilesquared   The  top  10  mobile  operators  /  groups  will   account  for  45%  of  RBM  income  by  2023        
  15. 15. SMS  /  RCS  ARPU  comparison   (US$)    -­‐          5      10      15      20      25      30      35      40      45     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Total  A2P  SMS  spend     RCS   US$3.61   1   2   3   4   5   6   US$3.60   SMS   RCS  –  P2A  ACTIVITY   ARPU  (US$)   @Mobilesquared  
  16. 16. AlternaOve  business  models   ADVERTISING  &  SEARCH  SCENARIOS   @Mobilesquared    0.82      3.18      5.98      8.45      10.65      11.61      1.19      4.62      8.69      12.28      15.47      16.87      1.99      7.69      14.48      20.46      25.79      28.11      -­‐      5      10      15      20      25      30     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Adver>sing     Scenario  1   Scenario  2   Scenario  3   Forecasts  based  on:   AdverOsing   Scenario  1:  Based  on  Kakao  Talk’s  average  ad  spend  per  user  (US$4.13)  applied  to   total  P2P  RCS  users.  Scenario  2  &  3  based  on  average  ad  spend  of  US$6  &  US$10   respec>vely.   Search   Based  on  5%  of  the  total  average  spend  on  mobile  search  per  user  in  the  USA,   applied  to  total  RCS  A2P  user  base.    -­‐          2      4      6      8      10      12     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   Search   0.04   10.7   9.1   6.7   3.9   1.3     Nb  Mobilesquared’s  actual  forecasts  on  adver5sing  &  search  will  be  published  in  2H  2019  
  17. 17. RCS  engagement  levels   PER  MONTH   By  2023  consumers  will  be  engaging  with  brands  via  RCS   on  an  almost  daily  basis   2019   2.92   2023   29.56   @Mobilesquared  
  18. 18. RCS  engagement  touchpoints   A2P  /  P2A  ACTIVITY  2023,  PER  MONTH   A2P  acOvity   PER  EVENT  9.4   @Mobilesquared   P2A  acOvity   PER  EVENT  6.1   CHAT  3.7   CHAT  10.4  
  19. 19. Threat  of  WhatsApp  to  mobile  operators   THE  JUGGERNAUT  HAS  DEPARTED    -­‐      2      4      6      8      10      12     2018   2019   2020   2021   2022   2023   Billions   WhatsApp  for  Business  revenues  (US$)   Data  to  emphasise  WhatsApp  threat  only!     Forecasts  based  on:      3  million  registered  businesses  (end  2018)  growing  at   20%  year-­‐on-­‐year  during  forecast  period     MaB  (Monthly  ac>ve  Business)  =  33%  per  year.     Average  sized  database  of  2,500  year-­‐on-­‐year.     Avg  message  cost  $0.03472,  based  on  avg  cost  in   launch  markets,  applied  throughout.   In  this  scenario  WhatsApp  for  Business  will:      enjoy  spend  18  Omes  higher  than  RCS  by  the  end  of   2019.     Will  generate  a  higher  ARPU  than  SMS  in  2021.     CumulaOve  spend  of  $30  billion  on  WhatsApp  during   forecast  period.     Nb  Mobilesquared’s  actual  forecasts  on  WhatsApp  for  Business  will  be  published  in  September  2019     7.2   5   3.5   2.4   1.7   0.4  
  20. 20. The  real  RCS  opportunity   TIME  TO  DELIVER   Market  worth  £16.2  billion  in  2023   (Based  on  messaging  &  chat)     Market  potenOally  £38.5  billion  in  2023*   (Based  on  messaging,  chat,  adverOsing  (scenario  1)  &  search)       *Mobilesquared’s  actual  forecasts  on  adver5sing  &  search  will  be  published  in  2H  2019  
  21. 21. Why  make  Mobilesquared  your  business  messaging  partner   RCS  forecasts  covering  P2P/A2P  launches,  P2P/A2P  users,  Traffic,  Income     Split  by  Mobile  operator,  Country,  Region  &  OS.     Databook  forecasts  updated  quarterly     Analyst  Insight  Reports  quarterly     RCS  MAU  tracker  (splipng  out  UP  1.0/UP2.0)  for  every  live  RCS  market     Upcoming  RCS  research  on  impact  of  digital  &  search  models  on  total  income   We  are  business  messaging  specialists  published  in  2009:     •  A2P  SMS  3.0  (May)   •  WhatsApp  for  Business  (September)   •  Apple’s  ABC  (November)     databooks@mobilesquared.co.uk     +44  (0)  118  2149  777  /  +44  (0)  7976  057  052     www.mobilesquared.co.uk/about-­‐databooks/   CONTACT  

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