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Decision making under uncertainty
how behavioral economics can make you a better coach
Nick Winkelman, PhD
Take a look at the next slide
and say the first thing you
see – then look again?
Take a look at the next slide
and say the first thing you
see – then look again?
…Just as our sight is susceptible to
visual illusions, our mind is equally
vulnerable to cognitive illusions…
Read the
next slide
out loud –
Fast and
then slow
A
Bird
In The
The Bush
Read the passage on the
next slide and count
the # of fs
Finished files are The re
Sult of years of scienti
Fic study combined with
The experience of years
How many did you
count? Did you get 6? If
not, count again…
…like a filter, brains limit the amount of
information that enters consciousness at any given
moment. this leads to a phen...
If the mind, like the eyes, are so easily
fooled, what – or who - dictates
what we do and do not see…what
we do and do not...
Part 1
A story of
two minds
System 1 System 2
Intuition
Sub-Conscious
Automatic
Effortless
Associative
Rapid, parallel
Transparency
Skilled (Implicit)...
System 1
May I have some
bread and _________ ?
System 1
A bat and ball cost $1.10
The bat costs one dollar more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?
System 2
Answer:
Ball $0.05 | Batt $1.05
System 2
S2 “What happened? I can make those penalty shots in my sleep?”
S1 Hit video replay
S2 “I mean, it wasn’t even close, I pu...
D. Kahneman
“Sys1 continuously generates suggestions
for Sys2: impressions, intuitions, intentions,
and feelings.”
“If end...
D. Kahneman
“sys1’s models of familiar situations are accurate”
[However], “sys1 has biases, systematic errors that
it is ...
The main problem is that under most circumstances, we –
system 2 – feel like we are in control, when the reality is
that w...
Heuristic are mental shortcuts that can lead
to systematic errors in judgement or biases
Part 2
Debiasing
decisions
Similarity
Rate the following from most likely (1) to least likely (4)
A. The Rugby player will injure their right hamstring at some
...
Sys1 operates on association and is attracted to the most
Plausible – opposed to probable – explanation Of a given
outcome...
observation | Most hamstring injuries occur during high speed running
conclusion | high speed running causes hamstring inj...
observation | relatively strong athletes tend to also sprint faster
conclusion | improving relative strength should be pri...
availability
Availability bias (ease of recall bias)
Consider the following example:
Write down as many words as you can that end with:...
Coach A | History of seeing players hurt their
hamstrings during sprinting
Coach B | limited history of seeing players hur...
Availability bias (ease of recall bias)
Depending on ease of recall, this can be a useful heuristic
for simple decisions l...
emotion
Thinking (Emotion Labeled) Action (Decision)Affect (Feel)
years0ms 100ms 200mS 300ms minsec500ms hourS
Our decisions are colored by how we feel and the associated emotional label we tag a
context/problem with. The only way we...
The power of a smile
Schwarz, N.
Mood-Mediated Memory
weather-Mediated Mood
Mood-Mediated perception
Bodenhausen (1990)
Self-identified morning vs evening people, likely a label based
on one’s sense of alertness and focus, ...
”In general, individuals in a sad mood are more likely to
use a systematic, data-driven strategy of information
processing...
Me…me…me
Final
Thoughts
BIAS
evidence
Don’t leave the truth to
chance. Cultivate an
evidence-based practice
that sits alongside your
practice-base...
1. Decision making is underpinned by a fast thinkingsystem 1 and a slow thinking system 2
2. Heuristics are mental shortcu...
Thank you
@nickWinkelman | Nick.Winkelman@irfu.ie
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach

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As coaches, trainers and therapists we make countless decisions on a daily basis. However, have you ever wondered what sits behind this decision making process? Have you ever asked why you decided to make decision A when you could have also made decision B, C or D? While we may feel that this decision is completely within our control, this may in fact be a wonderful trick of the human mind. Examining the well established work of Kahneman and Tversky within behavioral economics, we will look at the biases and mental short-cuts that we are hard wired to use when making decisions. We will discuss the positive and negative aspects of this automatic process and share insights into strategies that can make us all better decision makers when faced with uncertainty.

Publié dans : Formation

Decision Making Under Uncertainty: How Behavioral Economics Can Make You A Better Coach

  1. 1. Decision making under uncertainty how behavioral economics can make you a better coach Nick Winkelman, PhD
  2. 2. Take a look at the next slide and say the first thing you see – then look again?
  3. 3. Take a look at the next slide and say the first thing you see – then look again?
  4. 4. …Just as our sight is susceptible to visual illusions, our mind is equally vulnerable to cognitive illusions…
  5. 5. Read the next slide out loud – Fast and then slow
  6. 6. A Bird In The The Bush
  7. 7. Read the passage on the next slide and count the # of fs
  8. 8. Finished files are The re Sult of years of scienti Fic study combined with The experience of years
  9. 9. How many did you count? Did you get 6? If not, count again…
  10. 10. …like a filter, brains limit the amount of information that enters consciousness at any given moment. this leads to a phenomenon known as inattentional blindness…
  11. 11. If the mind, like the eyes, are so easily fooled, what – or who - dictates what we do and do not see…what we do and do not think?
  12. 12. Part 1 A story of two minds
  13. 13. System 1 System 2 Intuition Sub-Conscious Automatic Effortless Associative Rapid, parallel Transparency Skilled (Implicit) Affective Best Guess Specific Reason Conscious Controlled Effortful Deductive Slow, serial Self-aware Rules (Explicit) Neutral Statistical AbstractBottom-up Top-Down Kahneman | “Thinking Fast and Slow”
  14. 14. System 1
  15. 15. May I have some bread and _________ ? System 1
  16. 16. A bat and ball cost $1.10 The bat costs one dollar more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? System 2
  17. 17. Answer: Ball $0.05 | Batt $1.05 System 2
  18. 18. S2 “What happened? I can make those penalty shots in my sleep?” S1 Hit video replay S2 “I mean, it wasn’t even close, I put the ball into the stands.” S1 Reasons uploaded S2 “What can I do to ensure this never happens again?” S1 image of Practice S2 “yes, you’re right, keep practicing!” S1 Image of success
  19. 19. D. Kahneman “Sys1 continuously generates suggestions for Sys2: impressions, intuitions, intentions, and feelings.” “If endorsed by Sys2, impressions & intuitions turn into beliefs, and impulses turn into voluntary actions.” “When all goes smoothly, which is most of the time, Sys2 adopts the suggestions of Sys1 with little or no modification.”
  20. 20. D. Kahneman “sys1’s models of familiar situations are accurate” [However], “sys1 has biases, systematic errors that it is prone to make in specific circumstances.” [Sys1 has a habit of answering] “easier questions than the one it was asked, and it has little understanding of logic and statistics.” One final issue, “sys1 cannot be turned off”
  21. 21. The main problem is that under most circumstances, we – system 2 – feel like we are in control, when the reality is that we are more like spectators with a front row seat to our consciousness. While this works most of the time, especially for physical tasks like jumping out of the way of a car, side-stepping a defender, or picking up a cup of coffee, where system 1 can get us into trouble is when it steps-in to answers questions that are best served by the abilities of system 2.
  22. 22. Heuristic are mental shortcuts that can lead to systematic errors in judgement or biases
  23. 23. Part 2 Debiasing decisions
  24. 24. Similarity
  25. 25. Rate the following from most likely (1) to least likely (4) A. The Rugby player will injure their right hamstring at some point in the season B. the rugby player will get injured at some point in the season C. The rugby player will injure their right hamstring during high-speed running at some point in the season D. The rugby player will injure their right hamstring during high-speed running at some point during a match in the season Consider the following scenarios for a rugby player with a history of right hamstring pulls
  26. 26. Sys1 operates on association and is attracted to the most Plausible – opposed to probable – explanation Of a given outcome. If sys2 does not notice an error or doesn’t deploy attentional effort to overcome it, then sys1’s decision will Stand. This is the case for both prediction and justification in hindsight Representativeness Heuristic (Similarity bias)
  27. 27. observation | Most hamstring injuries occur during high speed running conclusion | high speed running causes hamstring injuries to occur Action | reduced programming exposure to high speed running Error 1 | assumed correlation = causation Error 2 | overconfidence Bias Didn’t consider all known causes | Error 3 Didn’t consider counterfactuals | Error 4
  28. 28. observation | relatively strong athletes tend to also sprint faster conclusion | improving relative strength should be prioritized to improve speed Action | relative strength is prioritized within the overall program Error 1 | assumed correlation = causation did not consider transfer of training | Error 2 1 Magnitude of Force 2 Timing of force 3Direction of force 4Range of motion
  29. 29. availability
  30. 30. Availability bias (ease of recall bias) Consider the following example: Write down as many words as you can that end with: __ N __ Write down as many words as you can that end with: I N G Decisions, especially those related to judging how likely something is to happen (e.g., risk of injury), are highly related to our past experiences and the ease with which we can recall a given type of event occurring.
  31. 31. Coach A | History of seeing players hurt their hamstrings during sprinting Coach B | limited history of seeing players hurt their hamstrings during sprinting Coach A | does not allow sprint training to take place outside of a rugby training context error| overly reliant on the ease with which they can recall sprint training = injury error| allowing emotion – fear – to color decision making opposed to looking at facts Coach B | Happy to leave training as there is no clear hamstring related issues error | not critically evaluating program could serve problematic in future. error | what got us here will get us there mentality – consider chance v choice
  32. 32. Availability bias (ease of recall bias) Depending on ease of recall, this can be a useful heuristic for simple decisions like deciding where you should go to dinner, however, it is a poor proxy for judgements that require an evidence-based decision. In support of this point, research has shown that we will depend more on the quality of what we can recall vs how easy it was to recall when faced with decisions that are motivationally important. Just because it is easier to remember, does not make it true
  33. 33. emotion
  34. 34. Thinking (Emotion Labeled) Action (Decision)Affect (Feel) years0ms 100ms 200mS 300ms minsec500ms hourS
  35. 35. Our decisions are colored by how we feel and the associated emotional label we tag a context/problem with. The only way we change these system 1 ‘blink responses’ is through pausing, re-framing and consulting with system 2 before making a decision
  36. 36. The power of a smile
  37. 37. Schwarz, N. Mood-Mediated Memory weather-Mediated Mood Mood-Mediated perception
  38. 38. Bodenhausen (1990) Self-identified morning vs evening people, likely a label based on one’s sense of alertness and focus, were shown to be more inclined to make judgement errors during the time a day they did not identify with. Generally speaking, we deplete the cognitive resources sys2 requires to overpower sys1 throughout the day. This is why it is far easier to pack a salad for lunch than it is to eat it.
  39. 39. ”In general, individuals in a sad mood are more likely to use a systematic, data-driven strategy of information processing, with considerable attention to detail.” “In contrast, individuals in a happy mood are more likely to rely on preexisting general knowledge structures, using a top-down, heuristic strategy of information processing, with less attention to detail.” Schwarz, N.
  40. 40. Me…me…me
  41. 41. Final Thoughts
  42. 42. BIAS evidence Don’t leave the truth to chance. Cultivate an evidence-based practice that sits alongside your practice-based evidence. systems Design a training system that is built on sound principles & has distinct components that are subject to upgrades. feedback Build in daily feedback through short & frequent self-reflection. Build in system feedback by collecting relevant data. Architect Use checklists, routines, and dashboards to ensure that you are consistent in your approach to thought, decision and action. e S A F SAFe © Nick Winkelman 2017
  43. 43. 1. Decision making is underpinned by a fast thinkingsystem 1 and a slow thinking system 2 2. Heuristics are mental shortcuts that can produce systematic errors known as biases 3. Errors emerge when the fast thinking of system 1 is not fact checked by system 2 4. Be aware of the similarity bias when trying to make predictions and identify causation 5. Be aware of the availability bias when trying to make predictions and identify likelihoods 6. Be aware of the affect Bias – our decisions are colored and influenced by mood/emotion 7. Be ware of the Zombie Biases – mindless decisions that actively pursue self-interest v Truth
  44. 44. Thank you @nickWinkelman | Nick.Winkelman@irfu.ie

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