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Hungary 2016 OECD Economic Survey investing in the future

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Hungary 2016 OECD Economic Survey investing in the future

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Hungary 2016 OECD Economic Survey investing in the future

  1. 1. 2016 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF HUNGARY Investing in the Future Budapest, 6th May @OECD @OECDeconomy http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-hungary.htm
  2. 2. 2 Growth has recovered recently Annual GDP growth (volume) Source: OECD (2016), OECD Analytical Database.
  3. 3. 3 Public debt is decreasing Source: OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). Public debt
  4. 4. 4 Vulnerabilities have declined Source: Magyar Nemzeti Bank. Household loans in domestic and foreign currencies  Household FX loans have been replaced by forint denominated loans
  5. 5. 5 The current account deficit is now in surplus Current account balance
  6. 6. 6 The labour market lacks inclusiveness Source: OECD (2016), OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database). Youth unemployment Not in education or employment (NEET), aged 20-24, 2014
  7. 7. 7 The labour market lacks inclusiveness (con’t) Source: OECD (2016), OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database). Female labour force participation rate Aged 15-65, 2014
  8. 8. 8 Income levels remain low GNI per capita, 2014 Source: World Bank, International Comparison Program database.
  9. 9. 9 Labour productivity has been weak Labour productivity Average annual growth rate, 2008-2014 Source: OECD (2016), OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database).
  10. 10. 10 Investment is lower than expected Source: OECD (2015), OECD calculations based on OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections (database). 1. The baseline scenario is the projected development of investment from 2008 onwards, based on a simple accelerator model, estimated over the period Q1 1996-Q4 2007.
  11. 11. Bolstering investment 11
  12. 12.  Step-up offloading of non-performing assets by the asset management company  Expand capital surcharges on non-performing loans held by banks  Bolster banking competition by selling stakes in state-owned banks 12 Non-performing loans are high Non-performing loans to total loans held by banks Source: Magyar Nemzeti Bank.
  13. 13.  Fund social security cuts with income taxes to broaden the tax base  Rely more on consumption taxes  Step up the fight against VAT fraud 13 The labour tax-wedge is high Average tax wedge, 2015 Single person at 100% of average earnings, no child Source: OECD (2016), Taxing wages database. Note: The average tax wedge is the sum of income taxes and social security contributions as a percentage of labour costs.
  14. 14.  Continue to cut red tape  Make better use of regulatory impact assessments 14 Barriers to entrepreneurship are still significant Barriers to entrepreneurship Index scale of 0-6 from least to most restrictive Source: OECD (2014), OECD Product Market Regulation Statistics (database).
  15. 15. • Make network sectors more competitive:  Introduce market-based pricing to attract new investment  Secure non-discriminatory access to networks 15 Telecommunication prices are high Source: OECD (2015), OECD Digital Economy Outlook 2015. Monthly prices for mobile services Note: Prices for a standard package for telecommunication services.
  16. 16.  Increase and simplify feed-in tariffs to spur investment in renewables 16 Greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced Total greenhouse gas emissions divided by GDP Source: OECD (2015), "Greenhouse gas emissions by source", OECD Environment Statistics (database).
  17. 17. Enhancing skills 17
  18. 18.  Increase the focus on training in public work schemes  Scale up the wage subsidy programme 18 The low-skilled do not participate enough in the labour market Employment rates of people with below upper-secondary education Aged 25-64 Source: OECD (2015), Education at a Glance 2015.
  19. 19.  Expand early childcare  Provide incentives for fathers to share parental leave 19 Mothers do not participate enough in the workforce Employment rates for mothers with youngest child aged 0-2 Source: OECD (2015), Pensions at a Glance 2015.
  20. 20.  Improve working conditions of teachers  Postpone tracking and extend compulsory grammar school to enhance general skills 20 Educational outcomes could be improved Student performance in mathematics in PISA Source: OECD (2014), PISA 2012 Database.
  21. 21.  Continue integrating vocational training programmes into vocational schools 21 Investment in vocational training is key Share of people having a positive view of vocational education % of positive responses
  22. 22.  Increase funding  Expand means tested support for disadvantaged students  Strengthen career counselling 22 Completion rates in tertiary education are low Tertiary completion rates Source: OECD (2013), Education at a Glance 2013.
  23. 23. • Macroeconomic policies – Public debt and spending are still high. – Non-performing loans are high and credit growth remains subdued. – Labour taxation is high. • Bolstering private investment – Frequent changes in the regulatory framework undermine investment incentives. – The effectiveness of the competition framework is reduced by exemptions to the application of competition policy and entry barriers in network industries. • Enhancing skills to boost growth – Few public work scheme participants find jobs on the primary labour market. – Young mothers have low labour market participation. – Changing technologies are increasingly making workers’ skills obsolete. – Graduates from the vocational training programmes face high unemployment. – Tertiary education graduation rates remain low and labour market outcomes are uneven. 23 Main findings
  24. 24. • Macroeconomic policies – Reduce spending to lower the structural deficit. – Step-up offloading of non-performing assets of the asset management company. – Bolster competition in the banking sector by selling stakes in state-owned banks. – Increase the reliance on non-distortive consumption taxes. • Bolstering private investment – Remove sector exemptions to apply the modern competition policy framework as widely as possible. – Only allow competition limiting mergers on clear public interest grounds. – Secure non-discriminatory third party access in network sectors. • Enhancing skills to boost growth – Focus the public work schemes focus on training and on programmes that get workers into the primary labour market. – Expand early childhood care. Reduce length of parental leave and provide incentives for paternity leave. – Creating a tool set, including individual learning accounts, to promote lifelong learning. – Integrate the vocational training programmes into secondary vocational schools. – Increase funding and expand means-tested support for disadvantaged students. 24 Key recommendations
  25. 25. 25 For more information http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-hungary.htm Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.