Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.
www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm
OECD
OECD Economics
2015 OECD ECONOMIC
SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND
Cath...
Switzerland has enjoyed strong
and stable growth
2
Real GDP levels in selected countries
Index, 2008 Q1 = 100
Source: OECD...
The exchange rate is strong
3
Source: Swiss National Bank.
Exchange rates
Enforced currency ceiling of 1.2 euros to the fr...
Extremely loose monetary policy
4
1. The SNB implements its monetary policy by fixing a target range for the three-month S...
Popular initiative limiting immigration to be
implemented by 2017
5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
19...
Per capita GDP levels are high
6
Difference in level of per capita real GDP compared to upper half of OECD
Percentage poin...
Labour productivity growth has been around
the OECD average
7
Labour productivity and real GDP per capita growth, 2005-14
...
Total Factor Productivity growth has been
below par
8
Average annual TFP growth, 1995-2013
Average annual percentage chang...
Real wages have decoupled from
productivity growth
9
Real wages and labour productivity growth
Index, 2008-Q1=100
1. Defla...
Recommendations for improving productivity
growth and boosting medium-term growth
Key recommendations
• Increase competiti...
The housing sector
11
House prices have increased considerably
12
1. Nominal house prices divided by per capita nominal disposable income.
2. No...
Household debt has increased
13
Source: OECD Economic Outlook 97 database (and updates) and national sources.
0
50
100
150...
Supply-side responsiveness is low
14
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
CHE
NLD
AUT
ITA
BEL
FRA
ISR
GBR
DEU
POL
ESP
NOR
AUS
IRL
NZL
F...
Exposure to housing sector is high
15
1.Or latest available observation. 2014 annual average for Switzerland.
Source: IMF,...
Macro-prudential policies aimed at curtailing
the housing boom
16
July
2012
10% equity excluding
2nd pillar
Amortise to LT...
Housing policy and related
recommendations
17
• Establish a framework for explicitly addressing affordability risk, to be ...
The efficiency of public spending
18
The size of government is small
19
Government spending and employment
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 97 database (and ...
But early childhood enrolment rates are low
20
Enrolment rates in early childhood and primary education at the age of thre...
Health expenditure projections
21
Decomposition of health expenditure developments and projections
2000 = 100, per cent of...
Pension expenditure is set to balloon
22
Public finance projections
Debt-to-GDP ratio, baseline scenario
Source: Swiss Fed...
Recommendations to improve public
spending efficiency
23
• Increase public spending on early childhood education and care,...
More Information…
www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm
OECD
OECD Economics
Disclaimers:
The statistica...
Prochain SlideShare
Chargement dans…5
×

Switzerland-2015-oecd-economic-survey-press-conference-bern-1-december

16 581 vues

Publié le

Switzerland 2015 OECD Economic Survey press conference Bern 1 December

Publié dans : Économie & finance
  • Soyez le premier à commenter

  • Soyez le premier à aimer ceci

Switzerland-2015-oecd-economic-survey-press-conference-bern-1-december

  1. 1. www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm OECD OECD Economics 2015 OECD ECONOMIC SURVEY OF SWITZERLAND Catherine L. Mann OECD Chief Economist Bern, 1 December 2015
  2. 2. Switzerland has enjoyed strong and stable growth 2 Real GDP levels in selected countries Index, 2008 Q1 = 100 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 97 database (and updates).
  3. 3. The exchange rate is strong 3 Source: Swiss National Bank. Exchange rates Enforced currency ceiling of 1.2 euros to the franc from 6 September 2011 to 15 January 2015
  4. 4. Extremely loose monetary policy 4 1. The SNB implements its monetary policy by fixing a target range for the three-month Swiss franc Libor. The Libor is a reference interest rate in the interbank market for unsecured loans. It is a trimmed mean of the rates charged by 11 leading banks and is published daily by the International Commodities Exchange (ICE). Source: Swiss National Bank, Monthly Statistical Bulletin and Monthly Bulletin of Banking Statistics, April 2015; and OECD Economic Outlook 97 database. .
  5. 5. Popular initiative limiting immigration to be implemented by 2017 5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Natural Increase Net migration Population Migration and natural population growth Per cent growth Source: OECD Population and Vital Statistics database.
  6. 6. Per capita GDP levels are high 6 Difference in level of per capita real GDP compared to upper half of OECD Percentage points Compared to the simple average of the 17 OECD countries with highest GDP per capita in 2013 based on 2013 purchasing power parities (PPPs) Source: OECD, Going for Growth 2015. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 HUN POL EST GRC SVK PRT SVN CZE ESP ITA JPN EU OECD GBR FRA FIN BEL CAN DEU DNK SWE AUT IRL NLD USA CHE LUX 2 3
  7. 7. Labour productivity growth has been around the OECD average 7 Labour productivity and real GDP per capita growth, 2005-14 Average annual percentage change Source: OECD, Economic Outlook 97 database (and updates); OECD National Accounts database; and SECO.
  8. 8. Total Factor Productivity growth has been below par 8 Average annual TFP growth, 1995-2013 Average annual percentage change Source: OECD Productivity Database. -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 ITA ESP DNK NZL BEL NLD CHE CAN JPN AUT FRA AUS DEU GBR SWE USA FIN IRL KOR
  9. 9. Real wages have decoupled from productivity growth 9 Real wages and labour productivity growth Index, 2008-Q1=100 1. Deflated by Producer Price Index. 2. Productivity measured using hours worked. Source: OECD, Economic Outlook 97 database (and updates).
  10. 10. Recommendations for improving productivity growth and boosting medium-term growth Key recommendations • Increase competition in the telecoms and energy sectors, including privatising Swisscom. • Push forward with reforms in the agricultural sector. • Extend the network of free-trade agreements, including with India and the United States. • Take measures to promote more intensive participation of women in the work force, such as by increasing the supply of childcare facilities and introducing individual as opposed to family taxation. Other recommendations • Move to a single VAT rate with as few exemptions as possible. • Streamline insolvency procedures to facilitate more efficient business adjustment to structural change. 10
  11. 11. The housing sector 11
  12. 12. House prices have increased considerably 12 1. Nominal house prices divided by per capita nominal disposable income. 2. Nominal rent prices divided by per capita nominal disposable income. Source: OECD House Price database.
  13. 13. Household debt has increased 13 Source: OECD Economic Outlook 97 database (and updates) and national sources. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 SVK HUN SVN POL CZE ITA EST AUT DEU BEL GRC FRA USA FIN JPN ESP PRT GBR KOR CAN SWE AUS CHE NOR IRL NLD DNK 2000 2007 2013 or latest Household debt in OECD countries % of disposable income
  14. 14. Supply-side responsiveness is low 14 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 CHE NLD AUT ITA BEL FRA ISR GBR DEU POL ESP NOR AUS IRL NZL FIN JPN CAN DNK SWE USA A. Price elasticity of new housing supply¹ CHE NLD AUT ITABEL FRA GBR DEU POLESP NORAUS IRL NZL FIN JPN CAN DNK SWE USA ISR 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 0 50 100 150 200 250 Number of days to obtain a building permit ² Supply responsiveness ¹ B. Price elasticity of supply and land-use regulations Housing supply responsiveness in selected countries 1. Estimates of the long-run price elasticity of new housing supply where new supply is measured by residential investment (see Caldera Sánchez and Johansson (2011)). 2. The number of days to obtain a building permit is obtained from the World Bank Doing Business (2009) indicators. Source: Caldera Sánchez, A. and Å. Johansson (2013), “The price responsiveness of housing supply in OECD countries”, Journal of Housing Economics, Volume 22, Issue 3, September, pp. 231-49.
  15. 15. Exposure to housing sector is high 15 1.Or latest available observation. 2014 annual average for Switzerland. Source: IMF, Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI); OECD Economic Outlook 97 database (and updates); and OECD calculations. Stock of residential loans relative to total bank loans and GDP 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 NOR CHE SWE DNK ESP NLD DEU ITA BEL 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 A. Stock of mortgages to total bank loans (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 MEX TUR USA POL KOR ITA ISR DEU AUT GRC FIN LUX IRL ESP SVK BEL CAN NLD GBR PRT SWE NOR DNK AUS CHE B. Stock of mortgages to GDP, 2015-Q2¹ (%)
  16. 16. Macro-prudential policies aimed at curtailing the housing boom 16 July 2012 10% equity excluding 2nd pillar Amortise to LTV 2/3s within 20 years Legal framework for CCB August 2012 SNB abstained from activating CCB January 2013 10% equity excluding 2nd pillar February 2013 CCB activated at 1% January 2014 CCB increased to 2% September 2014 Amortise to LTV of 2/3s in 15 years October 2011 Revision of SBA guidelines – affordability, valuation standards, etc. 2nd Revision of SBA guidelines – second incomes and valuation principles. Common Bank Internal Policies LTV ratio of 80%; Interest to Income of 1/3; Reference interest rate of 5% + 1% + 1%.
  17. 17. Housing policy and related recommendations 17 • Establish a framework for explicitly addressing affordability risk, to be used if needed to contain financial stability risks related to imbalances in the housing and mortgage markets. • Monitor closely mortgage lending to firms or households for rental properties, which may not be as responsive as the owner-occupied segment to recent regulatory measures. • Review spatial planning regulations to make it easier to build denser housing. • Harmonise cantonal and communal land-use and building codes to promote greater competition and economies of scale in the construction industry. • Impose an extra tax on land in high-demand areas that has been rezoned for real estate but has remained undeveloped for more than five years. • Limit the tax deductibility of mortgage interest so that, combined with maintenance outlays, it does not exceed the amount of declared imputed rent. Update the imputed rent calculations more frequently to better reflect market values.
  18. 18. The efficiency of public spending 18
  19. 19. The size of government is small 19 Government spending and employment Source: OECD, Economic Outlook No. 97 database (and updates).
  20. 20. But early childhood enrolment rates are low 20 Enrolment rates in early childhood and primary education at the age of three Source : OECD, Education at a Glance 2014 database.
  21. 21. Health expenditure projections 21 Decomposition of health expenditure developments and projections 2000 = 100, per cent of GDP Source: Federal Statistical Office (BFS); and Federal Health Office (BAG), KOF.
  22. 22. Pension expenditure is set to balloon 22 Public finance projections Debt-to-GDP ratio, baseline scenario Source: Swiss Federal Department of Finance, 2012 Report on the Long-Term Sustainability of Public Finances in Switzerland, Bern. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 2048 2051 2054 2057 2060 Confederation Social security Cantons Communes
  23. 23. Recommendations to improve public spending efficiency 23 • Increase public spending on early childhood education and care, especially for children with disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds (including those from immigrant backgrounds), which could be combined with a generalisation of the childcare voucher systems in the Canton of Lucerne. • Boost the supply and attractiveness of fields of study that are in high demand in the labour market. Further clarify study streams across the tertiary education system. • Switch the system for setting generic drug prices to reimbursing a pre- determined fixed amount. • Encourage systematic benchmarking of hospital costs. If rates keep rising despite the recent reforms, consider new legislation to control them using cost benchmarks. • Fix the retirement age at 65 for both sexes and thereafter link it to life expectancy. To cut early retirement, reduce existing incentives and pay a larger pension premium for those who choose to work longer.
  24. 24. More Information… www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-switzerland.htm OECD OECD Economics Disclaimers: The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. 24

×