The smartphone has completely changed how people communicate, collaborate, discover, shop and do all sorts of things. This always-on device is in order of magnitude more powerful than the biggest computers in the 60s and now we carry it with us wherever we go. Smartphones combined with cloud technologies and real-time algorithms, are moving us to a transformation phase as software algorithms will transform traditional businesses be it in retail, banking, construction, education and so on. We are entering times of great disruption. Presentation at Nýherji's AI conference 18.10.2016

1. DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
IN THE POST SMARTPHONE AGE
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

2. Living in the future - predict how
technology will impact businesses in
the next 3-5 years

3. New Technology at
Reykjavik University

4. “Humanity will change more in the
next 20 years than in the past 300
years” — Gerd Leonhard

5. The 20th century was the age of
automobile, oil and mass manufacturing

6. Local and linear

7. The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894
“In 50 years every street in London would
be buried under nine feet of manure.”
— The Times of London, 1894

8. New Technological Revolution takes off

9. Ford Model-T 1908
IRRUPTION

10. Car companies were the hottest
technology companies

11. FRENZY
The Roaring Twenties

13. Turning Point

14. From 1960 to 1980 there was
unprecedented consumer demand
because of the affluent middle class
(Baby Boomers) both in US and
Europe
Source: Retail Revival
SYNEGRY

15. Benefits of the new technology spreads

16. Golden Age

17. Post-war America - from high street
to the mall

18. Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z
Industrial era
Teletype
Adding
machines Punch
Cards
IBM 305
RAMAC
Productivity
MarketShift
Information era
Mainframe
Mini
Computer
PC
Client-server
Internet
Open Source
Visicalc
Macintosh
Windows 95
Mobile Phone
GSM
Calculator
Market Shifts
Microprocessor
Smartphone

19. INSTALLATION
PERIOD
TURNING
POINT
DEPLOYMENT
Age of Oil and
Automobile
1908
The Roaring
Twenties
1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age
Source: Carlota Perez
Technological Revolution

20. INSTALLATION
PERIOD
TURNING
POINT
DEPLOYMENT
The Industrial
Revolution
1771 Canal mania 1793-97 The Great British Leap
Age of Steam
and Railways
1829 Railway mania 1848-50 The Victorian Boom
Age of Steel
and Electricity
1875
Infrastructure
bubbles
1890-95
The Belle Époque (Europe)
Progressive Era (USA)
Age of Oil and
Automobile
1908
The Roaring
Twenties
1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age
Source: Carlota Perez
Technological Revolution

21. The Age of Information

22. 1947
Programmable all-purpose electronic
computers start to have impact on big
businesses and government
Automation starts, jobs get lost
IBM mainframes
Mainframe

23. 1965
Minicomputers allow mid-sized companies
and academia to have time shared computing
power
Automation continues
Minicomputers

24. Fifth Technological Revolution
starts
Intel 1971
The Technology Trigger 1971

25. 1981
Personal Computer allowed small
companies and individuals to own and
program computers
Generative platform
Opened up a huge revolution - created a
new industry
Personal Computers

26. IRRUPTION

27. 1995
Opened up a new way for people to
communicate and exchange data
Generative platform,
permissionless innovation
Created new industries, transformed
businesses
3.4 billion connected
Internet

28. FRENZY

30. 2007
The smartphone revolution takes off with
new possibilities
Powerful computer in your pocket
Access to 4 million apps
Constant access to the Internet
Smartphone

31. PDP-8
Computer from DEC in
March 1965
Cost 18.500 USD
50.000 machines sold
12 bit architecture
32K memory
0,5 MIPS
MIPS: millions instruction per second
iPhone 6
Smartphone from
September 2015
Cost $649
Sold 10 million phones
in 3 days
64 bit architecture
128GB “capacity”
25.000 MIPS

32. From PDP-8 to the iPhone 6
50.000 times faster
50 years
And has camera, sensors, speakers, Wi-Fi, etc…

33. We have a supercomputer in our pocket

34. Mainframe
1947
Minicomputer
1965
PC
1981 1995
Internet Smartphone
2007
The Shortening Waves

35. The Next Wave is built on the Smartphone Wave

36. What does this mean?

37. WE EMPHASIZE
TECHNOLOGY
BUT IGNORE THE
SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT

38. How will technology
change people’s behavior?

40. INSTALLATION
PERIOD
TURNING
POINT
DEPLOYMENT
Age of
Information
1971
Internet mania and
financial casino
2000 & 2008
The Industrial
Revolution
1771 Canal mania 1793-97 The Great British Leap
Age of Steam
and Railways
1829 Railway mania 1848-50 The Victorian Boom
Age of Steel
and Electricity
1875
Infrastructure
bubbles
1890-95
The Belle Époque (Europe)
Progressive Era (USA)
Age of Oil and
Automobile
1908
The Roaring
Twenties
1929-33 & 43 Post-war Golden Age
The New Golden Age?
Source: Carlota Perez
Technological Revolution

41. Silent Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z
Industrial era
Teletype
Adding
machines Punch
Cards
IBM 305
RAMAC
Productivity
MarketShift
Information era
Mainframe
Mini
Computer
PC
Client-server
Internet
Open Source
Visicalc
Macintosh
Windows 95
Mobile Phone
GSM
Calculator
MarketShift
Digital era
Apps
Cloud
Wearables
Blockchain
IoT
AI
Chatbots
Robotics
Drones
Market Shifts
Smartphone
Microprocessor
Technology Trigger
Intel 4004

42. Software eats the world

43. Intelligent Software

44. Real-time Software

45. Businesses are going though
Digital Transformation

46. 2010 2020
Defined Industry Boundaries
Single-purpose Products
Producers and Consumers
Buying Economy
Hierarchical Structure
Platforms, ecosystems
Connected Smart Products
User as producer, co-creation
Sharing economy
Network Structure
The Transformation Decade
Broadcasting Streaming
Gatekeepers Algorithms
2010 2020

47. Ushering in the Golden Era in
the Information Age
Source: Carlota Perez

48. “We’ll only have it if we build it.”
— Carlota Perez

49. The Smartphone

50. 2+ billion people carry
smartphones
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

51. If you want to get customers to use software,
you cannot ignore mobile
Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides

52. People check their smartphone
over 100 times per day

53. Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks

54. The 20th century society structure was
hierarchical – government, companies,
any form of communication
Coordination cost is high

55. The 21st century society becomes a
network – software connects individuals
Coordination drops to zero

58. Any business that is built around a
hierarchy with high coordination
cost, will be crushed by a networked
software solution with low
coordination cost

59. Smart things that connect

60. Everyday objects get sensors and
software and connect to the Internet

61. Thing
Smartthing
Processors
Sensors
Software
Connected smartthing
Processors
Sensors
Software
Source: HBR
Farming
system
Planters
Tillers
Tractor
Combine
harvesters
Ecosystem

62. Smart farming

63. Accelerometer
Gyroscope
Magnetometer
Barometer
Proximity
Light sensor
Touch screens
GPS
WiFi
Bluetooth
GSM/CDMA Cell
NFC - Near Field
Camera front
Camera back
Sensors

64. Fitness tracking – healthy lifestyle

65. Lockitron - lock control

66. Philips HUE light system

67. iGrill thermometer

68. Nest thermostat

69. Sonos sound system

70. Real-time algorithms

71. Using computers in the Information
era: you sit down and use the
computer just as any tool

72. Using computers in the digital era:
The computer tells you what is
happening and what you need to do
Real-time Algorithms

73. Smartphone +
Network +
Connected things +
Real-time
=
Digital
Transformation

74. Port of Hamburg
Over 9 million containers per year
40.000 truck trips per day

75. Rise of online ordering and
delivery services

78. 78

79. 79
AHA Logistics
Drivers locations

82. Finance Healthcare Retail
Transportation Education
?
Any industry

83. DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
IN THE POST SMARTPHONE AGE
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
olafurandri.com
andri@olafurandri.com
@olandri
slideshart.net/olandri
Takk