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Disruption Rules!

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New and emerging technology is having impact on people, businesses, and society. In some cases the current business models are replaced by new once in a relative short time. The Internet with smartphones and all-ways on access to cloud based services is creating new business models, and for established companies or individual creators it is hard to adapt.

This is my lecture at the WLA/EL Internet and New Media held in Reykjavik 22-24 September. In this I look at some of the concepts I teach about in my New Technology course. Fortunately, there are theories and principles that can help us understand how disruption happens.

More information can be found on by website: http://www.olafurandri.com/

New Technology 2014 course is here: https://vimeo.com/channels/659899

Joint WLA/EL Internet and New Media seminar:
https://www.european-lotteries.org/event/joint-elwla-internet-new-media-seminar-0

Publié dans : Technologie
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Disruption Rules!

  1. 1. WLA/EL INTERNET AND NEW MEDIA SEMINAR September 2014 Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson Adjuct, Reykjavík University
  2. 2. NEW TECHNOLOGY UNDERSTANDING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON PEOPLE, BUSINESSES AND SOCIETY
  3. 3. NEW TECHNOLOGY LIVING IN THE FUTURE
  4. 4. Written March 4th 2013
  5. 5. WHY IS 2014 THE TIME FOR THE SMARTWATCH?
  6. 6. ADJACENT POSSIBLE WHEN ALL THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND CONDITIONS ARE READY, NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE
  7. 7. EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
  8. 8. 30 DOUBLINGS = BILLION
  9. 9. THE SECOND HALF OF THE iMac CHESSBOARD iPhone Mac OS 9.0.4 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory Screen - 786K pixels Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iOS 4.0 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory Screen - 614K pixels Storage - 32GB Flash Drive 2000 Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple 2010
  10. 10. MUSIC PICTURES COMMUNICATION SMARTPHONES TV SHOWS MOVIES BOOKS THE DIGITAL DECADE 2000 2010
  11. 11. SOCIAL MEDIA 14 2000 2010
  12. 12. CONTENT CREATION IN THE 20TH CENTURY (BG) Image from Jyrki J.J. Kasvi
  13. 13. 21ST CENTURY – OUCH! Image from Jyrki J.J. Kasvi
  14. 14. HOW DO YOU RUN A BUSINESS WHEN EVERYTHING IS CHANGING?
  15. 15. Source: (Christensen, 2000) THE DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION THEORY New organisation can use relatively simple, convenient, low-cost innovations to create growth and triumph over powerful incumbents
  16. 16. Source: (Blue Ocean) VALUE INNOVATION Instead of focusing on beating the competition, you focus on making the competition irrelevant by creating a leap in value for your buyers, thereby opening up new market space
  17. 17. Stephen Elop, (former) CEO Nokia
  18. 18. IN 2002 NOKIA HAD 35% OF THE WORLDS MOBILE MARKET IN 2006 NOKIA HAD 73.6% OF THE WORLDS SMARTPHONE MARKET
  19. 19. Then in January 2007 this guy comes along…
  20. 20. Then in January 2007 this guy comes along…
  21. 21. DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGY THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING
  22. 22. THE IPHONE EFFECT FROM HARDWARE TO SOFTWARE INDUSTRIAL STRENGTH OPERATING SYSTEM PLATFORM FOR APPS
  23. 23. HOW DOES THE COMPETITION RESPOND?
  24. 24. Steve Ballmer CEO of Microsoft, on the iPhone
  25. 25. THE ARROGANCE OF THE PRESENT WE BASE OUR JUDGEMENT ON FACTS FROM THE PAST NOT THE POSSIBILITIES OF THE FUTURE
  26. 26. WE TEND TO LOOK BACK THE UNKNOWN DAWN OF MAN FUTURE
  27. 27. TELEPHONE (1876) "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876.
  28. 28. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“ - Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 COMPUTERS (1943)
  29. 29. “The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad” - The president of the Michigan Savings Bank to advised Henry Ford's lawyer Horace Rackham not to invest in the Ford Motor company CARS (1885)
  30. 30. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced a partnership with Microsoft
  31. 31. http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-bigger-than-microsoft-2012-2
  32. 32. People waiting in line to buy iPhone 6 www.dailymail.co.uk
  33. 33. Early 2011, Elop said in a memo they were standing on a burning platform
  34. 34. Resources, Processes and Values Theory Resources (what a firm has), Processes (how a firm does it´s work), and Values (what a firm wants to do) collectively defines an organization’s strengths as well as weaknesses and blind spots Source: (Christensen, 2000) The RPV Theory
  35. 35. DISRUPTION AHEAD
  36. 36. The Invention of the Printing Press Controlled by those with Power
  37. 37. Knowledge Accessible by the Exclusive Few
  38. 38. Portable Knowlege The Revolution Begins
  39. 39. END OF CONTROL
  40. 40. UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO KNOWLEDGE, SERVICES AND OTHER PEOPLE
  41. 41. END OF CONTROL
  42. 42. 2,6 BILLION PEOPLE ARE CONNECTED TO THE INTERNET
  43. 43. HIERARCHAL NETWORK 20th Century 21th Century
  44. 44. THE TRANSFORMATION DECADE BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 20TH CENTURY BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 21TH CENTURY 2010 2020
  45. 45. THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET BEFORE NOW Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable
  46. 46. CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE BEFORE NOW Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture
  47. 47. OUR DEVICES ARE GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD
  48. 48. FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOUR
  49. 49. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN CONSUMING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
  50. 50. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN PRODUCING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
  51. 51. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN CONNECTING PEOPLE
  52. 52. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
  53. 53. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
  54. 54. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
  55. 55. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN DOING BUSINESS
  56. 56. 25 CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR BEFORE NOW Videostores, DVD, late fees, clutter Everything, anywhere, anytime (almost) for rent
  57. 57. WHO RENTS DVD ANYMORE?
  58. 58. CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR BEFORE NOW Printed books, magazines Digital, automatically delivered, interactive
  59. 59. BOOK STORES SELL COFFEE NOW
  60. 60. STORES BECOME FITTING/TRYING ROOMS
  61. 61. SHOPPING WITH APPS
  62. 62. OWNERLESS LIFESTYLE BEFORE NOW Own, store, clutter Rent, subscribe, stream
  63. 63. FREEDOM BEFORE NOW Car Smartphone
  64. 64. TRANSFORMATION 3D PRINTING, ROBOTS MASS CUSTOMISATION, DESIGN PERSONAL STREAMING USER REVIEW ABUNDANCE INDUSTRY MASS PRODUCTION BROADCASTING GATEKEEPERS SACRISTY 20. CENTURY 21. CENTURY
  65. 65. “Disruption only happens to the unprepared” - Marlier & Pontes.
  66. 66. OPPORTUNITY Flickr photo: Arkadyevna
  67. 67. DISRUPTION RULES! Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson @olandri http://www.olafurandri.com http://www.linkedin.com/in/olandri http://www.vimeo.com/olandri http://www.slideshare.net/olandri

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