When innovators try to envision how people will use their product they often have different ideas on what people want. Products that are of superior technology may fail and inferior succeed, only because the inferior product has some features that people are looking for. In this lecture we look at how new products or technologies get adopted my markets. We look at the Law of Diffusion of Innovation, which explains how this adoption happens. We also look at what it takes for a new innovation to move from being a visionary idea to a practical product, or crossing the chasm. Finally we explore the hype cycle. In this lecture we look at how innovation happens. We look at the slow hunch, the liquid network, the hummingbird effect, and serendipity.

1. LECTURE L05
INNOVATION

2. Adjacent Possible
Steven Johnson
The inventor must use the
components that exist in his
environment

3. Combinatory Process
New technology is created
by combining other existing
technology in new ways

4. Gall’s Law
All complex systems that
work, evolved from simpler
system that worked

5. The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is
mastered, it will “disappear” as
something obvious and trivial,
and other more useful things
that are built on top of it

6. The Resistance Corollary
Even outdated things that
should “disappear” don’t
due to supposed importance

7. Complexity of Technology
Local and linear
Global and Exponential

8. Population
Population explosion
7 billion people

9. Prosperity
GDP per person

10. Matt Ridley: When ideas have sex
TED Lecture

12. Slide from Matt Ridley’s 2010 TED talk

13. Exchange
Technology improves due to
exchange and specialisation
— globalisation

14. How does innovation happen?

15. The Brilliant Scientist working in his lab

16. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla
Nikola Tesla

18. Tomas Edison

19. “I have not failed. I've just found 10,000
ways that won't work.”
– Thomas Edison

21. Change in Technology
Innovation

22. Something newly introduced,
such as a new method or device
Innovation

23. Innovation

24. DisruptiveSustaining
Evolutionary
Revolutionary
Innovation

25. Innovation
Sustaining Technology – Evolutionary
An innovation that improves a
product in an existing market in
ways that customers are
expecting
Red Oceans — commodities

26. An innovation that creates a new
market by allowing customers to
solve a problem in a radically new
way
May not be affordable enough to be
disruptive
Innovation
Sustaining Technology – Revolutionary

27. Ford Model T
Disruptive Technology
An innovation that creates a new (an
unexpected) market by applying a
different set of values.
Affordable so the impact is major
Innovation

28. "We take the ideas we've inherited or
stumbled across, and we jigger them
together into some new shape."
– Steven Johnson

29. The Coffee House

31. Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from

32. Where good ideas come from | Steven Johnson
TED Lecture, 2010

35. Environment of the space
Where people meet
Where ideas have sex

36. But innovation comes from people meeting
up in the hallways or calling each other at
10:30 at night with a new idea, or because
they realised something that shoots holes in
how we've been thinking about a problem.
— Steve Jobs

38. The Liquid network
A good idea is a network.
Innovations happens with
collaboration.
— Steven Johnson

39. The Liquid network
Innovations happen when
ideas are shared.
— Steven Johnson

40. The importance of cities

41. The Hummingbird Effect

42. The symbiosis between flowering plants and insects
that led to the production of nectar ultimately
created an opportunity for much larger organisms —
the hummingbirds — to extract nectar from plants,
though to do that they evolved a extremely unusual
form of flight mechanics that enable them to hover
alongside the flower in a way that few birds can
even come close to doing. In other words, they had
to learn an entirely new way to fly.
The Hummingbird Effect

43. Unexpected consequence of
new innovations
The Hummingbird Effect

44. The Hummingbird Effect

45. The Eureka Moment!

46. Sir Isaac Newton

48. The Slow Hunch
A lot of ideas linger on,
sometimes for decades,
in the back of people’s
minds
— Steven Johnson

49. Source: http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/187881/Douglas-Engelbart
Douglas Englebart 1965 Apple Macintosh 1984

50. Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm
The 10/10 Rule
Any technology that is going to have
significant impact over the next 10
years is already at least 10 years old

51. The 10/10 Rule
10 years to build a new
platform, 10 years for it
to be adopted

52. What do the following products have in common?

53. LSD
Post-it notes Viagra
Teflon
Penicillin

54. Serendipity
The accident of finding
something useful or good
without looking for it
— Steven Johnson

55. "In the fields of observation
chance favours only the
prepared mind”
— Louis Pasteur

56. Impact of innovation

57. Impact of Innovation

58. The Forth Quadrant

60. Liquid network
The Slow Hunch
10/10 Rule
Serendipity

61. NEXT
Diffusion of Innovation