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LECTURE L07
BECOMING INVISIBLE
Steve Jobs
Apple Special Event 27. January 2010
iPad
The iPad was released April 3rd
From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad
And there were mor...
iPad
300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability
By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads
Inflection Point
Shift in Computing
Where is the C-drive?
Computer anyone can use
The computer just
disappeared
Computer you use standing
Shifting focus
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
OBVIOUS
INVISIBLE
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
ANALYTICAL THINKING
EMOTIONS AND 

FEELINGS
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
User Centred Design

Don Norman
Computers are

still pretty

complicated

technology
Consumer Devices
The Computer and
the Internet
disappear
Source: Morgan Stanley Research
https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840
Inflection points
When technology changes business
Rapid growth starts
Decline of growth starts
Hype Curve
Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on
the Hype Curve and forecasting
The	
  Hype	
  Cycle
	
   A	
  graphic	
  representation	
  of	
  the	
  maturity,	
  adoption	
  and	
  business	
  
appl...
NASDAQ	
  
January	
  2000	
  
The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ	
  
January	
  2000	
  
The Internet Bubble
NASDAQ	
  
January	
  2000	
  
The Internet Bubble
The	
  Railway	
  Bubble
Railway	
  Stock	
  in	
  Britain	
  
The	
  value	
  of	
  railway	
  stock	
  grew	
  4	
  fold...
The	
  Internet	
  Bubble
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
Theory of Predicting the Future
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future

All important technologies go thr...
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of
Diffusion of Innovation
Importance of Design
DESIGN
As technology matures, 

design becomes important
Technology Adoption Life Cycle
The talent of the company that made the
product in the early days may become wrong
when the...
Organisations which design
systems ... are constrained to
produce designs which are copies
of the communication structures...
To whom does the designer report to? 

A programmer?
Technology	
   Business	
   Design
Technology	
  Life	
  Cycle
When	
  will	
  the	
  early

majority	
  pragmatics

start	
  buying	
  a	
  product?	
  
The...
Technology	
  Life	
  Cycle
	
   Early	
  in	
  the	
  cycle,	
  technology	
  is	
  important	
  
	
   When	
  technology...
Life	
  Cycle	
  of	
  Technology
	
   The	
  move	
  from	
  Technology	
  to	
  Commodity
The	
  need-­‐satisfaction	
  ...
The	
  Market	
  of	
  Commodites
• What	
  happens	
  when	
  a	
  market	
  becomes	
  
mature?	
  
– Karaoke	
  Capital...
Creating	
  Blue	
  Oceans
• Strategy	
  for	
  creating	
  new	
  markets	
  
– Make	
  the	
  competition	
  irrelevant	...
Instead	
  of	
  focusing	
  on	
  beating	
  the	
  competition,	
  you	
  focus	
  on	
  
making	
  the	
  competition	
...
TECHNOLOGY
CONSUMER
Technology Adoption Life Cycle

The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
Next
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
L07 Becoming Invisible
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L07 Becoming Invisible

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In the early days of product development, the technology is inferior and lacking in performance. The focus is very much on the technology itself. The users are enthusiast who like the idea of the product, find use for it, and except the lack of performance. Then as the product becomes more mature, other factors become important, such as price, design, features, portability. The product moves from being a technology to become a consumer item, and even a community.

In this lecture we explore the change from technology focus to consumer focus, and look at why people stand in line overnight to buy the latest gadgets.

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L07 Becoming Invisible

  1. 1. LECTURE L07 BECOMING INVISIBLE
  2. 2. Steve Jobs Apple Special Event 27. January 2010
  3. 3. iPad The iPad was released April 3rd From January to April there was a lot of discussion about the iPad And there were more sceptics than not
  4. 4. iPad 300,000 iPads were sold on their first day of availability By May 3, 2010, Apple had sold a million iPads
  5. 5. Inflection Point
  6. 6. Shift in Computing Where is the C-drive? Computer anyone can use The computer just disappeared Computer you use standing
  7. 7. Shifting focus
  8. 8. TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  9. 9. OBVIOUS INVISIBLE Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  10. 10. ANALYTICAL THINKING EMOTIONS AND 
 FEELINGS Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  11. 11. User Centred Design Don Norman
  12. 12. Computers are still pretty complicated technology
  13. 13. Consumer Devices The Computer and the Internet disappear
  14. 14. Source: Morgan Stanley Research https://techpinions.com/the-terrible-tablet-tantrum-part-1/30840
  15. 15. Inflection points When technology changes business Rapid growth starts Decline of growth starts
  16. 16. Hype Curve
  17. 17. Wired Magazine editor (former) Chris Anderson on the Hype Curve and forecasting
  18. 18. The  Hype  Cycle   A  graphic  representation  of  the  maturity,  adoption  and  business   application  of  specific  technologies
  19. 19. NASDAQ   January  2000   The Internet Bubble
  20. 20. NASDAQ   January  2000   The Internet Bubble
  21. 21. NASDAQ   January  2000   The Internet Bubble
  22. 22. The  Railway  Bubble Railway  Stock  in  Britain   The  value  of  railway  stock  grew  4  fold  from  1826  to  1846   Many  companies,  heavy  over-­‐investment   The  bubble  burst  1846
  23. 23. The  Internet  Bubble
  24. 24. Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Technology Trends
  25. 25. Theory of Predicting the Future Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are: 1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free
  26. 26. TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  27. 27. Importance of Design
  28. 28. DESIGN As technology matures, 
 design becomes important
  29. 29. Technology Adoption Life Cycle The talent of the company that made the product in the early days may become wrong when the product matures The organisational structure of companies need to change when the company moves from technology to products/services
  30. 30. Organisations which design systems ... are constrained to produce designs which are copies of the communication structures of these organisations Conway’s Law
  31. 31. To whom does the designer report to? 
 A programmer?
  32. 32. Technology   Business   Design
  33. 33. Technology  Life  Cycle When  will  the  early
 majority  pragmatics
 start  buying  a  product?   The  value  of  the  product
 is  sufficiently  great  or
 good-­‐enough

  34. 34. Technology  Life  Cycle   Early  in  the  cycle,  technology  is  important     When  technology  becomes  good  enough   Value  becomes  more  important   Design  becomes  more  important   Technology  is  no  longer  the  variable  that  controls  purchases   Improvements  loose  their  glamour   Customers  are  looking  for  things  like  value  convenience,  productivity,  
 ease-­‐of-­‐use,  low-­‐cost,  reliability   Emotions
  35. 35. Life  Cycle  of  Technology   The  move  from  Technology  to  Commodity The  need-­‐satisfaction  curve  of  technology
  36. 36. The  Market  of  Commodites • What  happens  when  a  market  becomes   mature?   – Karaoke  Capitalism  takes  over   • Red  oceans   – All  the  industries  in  existence  today
 —the  known  market  space   – Industry  boundaries  are  defined  and  accepted,  and   the  competitive  rules  of  the  game  are  known
  37. 37. Creating  Blue  Oceans • Strategy  for  creating  new  markets   – Make  the  competition  irrelevant   • Blue  oceans  denote  all  the  industries  
 not  in  existence  today—the  unknown  
 market  space,  untainted  by  competition
  38. 38. Instead  of  focusing  on  beating  the  competition,  you  focus  on   making  the  competition  irrelevant  by  creating  a  leap  in  value   for  your  buyers  and  your  company,  thereby  opening  up  new   and  uncontested  market  space Value Innovation
  39. 39. TECHNOLOGY CONSUMER Technology Adoption Life Cycle
 The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
  40. 40. Next DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY

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