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L17 The Mobile Revolution

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L17 The Mobile Revolution

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The ideas for cellular phones were developed in the 1940s. However, it was not until the microprocessor becomes available that practical commercial solutions are possible.

Today there are more than 4 billion mobile phone subscriptions in the world. In the last few years the increase has been most dramatic in developing countries. Telecoms operators have tried to capitalise on this by offering new services that will generate new revenues for them. Mobile Applications are increasing revenues for the operators while voices revenues are getting less and less. But what are mobile applications?

In this lecture we look mobile.

The ideas for cellular phones were developed in the 1940s. However, it was not until the microprocessor becomes available that practical commercial solutions are possible.

Today there are more than 4 billion mobile phone subscriptions in the world. In the last few years the increase has been most dramatic in developing countries. Telecoms operators have tried to capitalise on this by offering new services that will generate new revenues for them. Mobile Applications are increasing revenues for the operators while voices revenues are getting less and less. But what are mobile applications?

In this lecture we look mobile.

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L17 The Mobile Revolution

  1. 1. Lecture L17 THE MOBILE REVOLUTION
  2. 2. Why is the mobile 
 phone so important 
 to us? Q1
  3. 3. 400M daily circulations of all newspapers 800M registered cars 900M total cable/satellite TV subscribers 1.1B of all types of computers (PC, netbooks...) 1.2B total landline phones 1.5B total TV sets 1.7B total unique holders of credit cards 2.1B total unique holders of bank accounts 3.9B total FM radios in use
  4. 4. Mobile Phones 7.4billion connections worth $1.3 trillion/year https://gsmaintelligence.com/
  5. 5. There are more mobile phones in the world than there are toothbrushes Mobile Phones
  6. 6. Will grow to 8 billion phones in the next few years Image:  Nokia Mobile Phones
  7. 7. Why is the mobile 
 phone so important 
 to us? Q1
  8. 8. Survival
  9. 9. In 2011, there were 48 million people in the world who have a mobile phone but do not have electricity at home Mobile Phones provide safety Cisco,  January  2011
  10. 10. The Digital Revolution The enabling technologies
  11. 11. Early Systems The First Cell phone (1973) Name:  Motorola  Dyna-­‐Tac
 Size:  9  x  5  x  1.75  inches
 Weight:  2.5  pounds
 Display:  None
 Number  of  Circuit  Boards:  30
 Talk  time:  35  minutes
 Recharge  Time:  10  hours
 Features:  Talk,  listen,  dial
  12. 12. Microchip Digital Signal Processor Mobile phones became practical in the 1980s Technical Improvements
  13. 13. Cellular Networks Radio network made up of radio
 cells Tower and base
  14. 14. Base stations connect to 
 Mobile Telephone Switching Office 
 MTSO SID – System identification 
 Code SIM-cards Cellular Networks
  15. 15. Handoff Calls are automatically moved from one cell to the next MTSO controls the switch Roaming Connecting from one phone company 
 to another Cellular Networks
  16. 16. Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones ▪ Mobile phones provide safety ▪ The most common device of all ▪ Mobile phones are not practical until 1980s due to size of technology – Adjacent Possible ▪ The invention of the microchip played crucial role in the development of cell phones
  17. 17. 1G Analog
  18. 18. 1G Analog 1980s Voice only NMT, AMPS, FDMA
  19. 19. Early systems were in Bahrain, US, Japan and in the Nordic countries First international system
 was NMT in the Nordic Frequency Division 
 Multiple Access - FDMA 1G Analog
  20. 20. Q2 When the first mobile phones become possible, how does the market evolve?
  21. 21. NMT in Nordics AMPS in the US TACS in UK C-Nets in West Germany Radiocom 2000 in France RTMI/RTMS in Italy 1G Analog
  22. 22. Q3 What are the characteristics of the first mobile phones and who where the users?
  23. 23. Big Expensive Limited Characteristics Business users Field users Mobira  Talkman  
 frá  Nokia 1G Analog Early users
  24. 24. Q4 Early on multiple system were developed all over Europe. What was the problem with that?
  25. 25. Multiple standards – roaming is a problem In the US this is not a problem 1G Analog
  26. 26. European countries decide to define 
 common standard – digital Work on a Global System for Mobile 
 Communication (GSM) starts 1982 1G Analog
  27. 27. 2G Digital
  28. 28. 1990s Voice and data 9.6 – 14.4 Kbps GSM, TDMA Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 31-41 min. 2G Digital
  29. 29. Digital mobile phones appear in early 90s GMS takes off in 1991 – 
 unites Europe Time Division Multiple 
 Access – TDMA
 2G Digital
  30. 30. Copyright  ©  2011,  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson Q5 US is slow to adopt 2G, why?
  31. 31. US was slow in adopting 2G because roaming worked well Digital did not add enough over analog Texting and SIM cards was not known 2G Digital
  32. 32. GMS
  33. 33. Global System for Mobile Communication Built on TDMA – Digital Three times the capacity of analog, encryption, texting, SIM cards GMS
  34. 34. GMS GSM association has 800 networks in 220 countries
  35. 35. Texting Short Message System allowed 160 letters Became an accidental killer app – 
 messages, chat, ring tones First message sent 03.12.1992:
 “Merry Christmas”
  36. 36. Lessons Learned: Cellular Phones ▪ Cars became the first platform for phones ▪ First phones are analog ▪ Multiple standard – each country invents its own – Problem with standards (history repeats itself?) ▪ Roaming problems in Europe call for a standard ▪ Digital standard developed in Europe, G2 ▪ US does not have roaming problems and gets stuck in G1
  37. 37. 3G
  38. 38. Mobile networks and the Internet start to
 converge 1G and 2G are circuit switched – fine for voice
 The Internet is packet-switched 3G
  39. 39. 3G Packet Switching IMT – 2000 was a global standard for 3G
 mobile communications defined in mid-1990s Goals: Available 2000 
 Data rage 2000 kbps Frequencies in the 2000 Mhz region
  40. 40. 2000s   More  data   128+  Kbps   GPSR,  EDGE,  UMTS,  CDMA Downloading 3 min. MP3 song: 
 11 sec. – 1,5 min. 3G Packet Switching
  41. 41. More bandwidth, more applications Email, Images, music, movies, streaming Based on Code Division
 Multiple Access – CDMA 3G Packet Switching
  42. 42. 3G Solutions Messages Browsing Apps (J2ME)
  43. 43. Built with limitations Screen size, bandwidth restrictions Input limited – one-handed keyboard Limited memory, battery life Fragmentation nightmare 3G Solutions
  44. 44. Then, in 2007, the world changed
  45. 45. Copyright  ©  2011,  Ólafur  Andri  Ragnarsson
  46. 46. How does the 
 competition
 respond? Think about The Arrogance of the Present
  47. 47. iPhone hit the market in June 2007
  48. 48. Ok, let’s check the facts 
 five years later
  49. 49. http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-­‐bigger-­‐than-­‐microsoft-­‐2012-­‐2
  50. 50. Copyright  ©  2011,  Ólafur   Andri  Ragnarsson The 
 iPhone 
 Effect
  51. 51. Touch screen
  52. 52. Industrial strength desktop quality OS
  53. 53. Software and User
 interface
  54. 54. Platform for Apps
  55. 55. 85 billion apps downloaded (Oct 14)
  56. 56. App market revenue is estimated to hit $77 billion by 2017
  57. 57. Smartphone Market
  58. 58. Smartphone Market
  59. 59. Source: Mary Meeker Slide Deck Smartphone Market
  60. 60. Smartphone Market
  61. 61. iPhone
  62. 62. The App Store is to the iPhone what iTunes is to the iPod Google Play is the same Availability
  63. 63. Specialized Apps with Quality of Service – Innovation Context
  64. 64. Mobile media users pick up their phone 18 times a day to consume content via apps/ browser
  65. 65. Key Trends Mobile became important in 2010 and will be a revenue opportunity going forward
  66. 66. Source:  Morgan  Stanley Mobile vs. Desktop
  67. 67. Source:  Morgan  Stanley Mobile vs. Desktop
  68. 68. Any consumer business that ignores the smartphone, will likely become irrelevant Source: Heavy Reading Smartphones
  69. 69. Bandwidth on 3G mobile networks is growing by approximately 
 400% 
 annually Source: Heavy Reading Smartphones
  70. 70. Source: Skynews Smartphones How long does it take to download a HD movie 3G - 1 hour 4G - 40 seconds 5G - 1 second
  71. 71. Cameron Says UK And Germany To Work On 5G, Internet Of Things
  72. 72. Solutions Voice, text Apps, music, videos,
  73. 73. Worldwide tablet sales are predicted to grow by more than 400% over a two-year period, reaching 81.3 million units in 2012. Tablets
  74. 74. The “mobile web” is just the web – there is only one web. It’s just displayed in multiple of screen sizes Source:  The  Next  Big  Thing:  Mobile,  http://www.olafurandri.com/?p=408  
  75. 75. Apple Watch Can they do it again? Is Apple transforming as a company? Will US based Tech Companies disrupt the century old watch industry?
  76. 76. NEXT: SOCIAL

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