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New Technology 2017 L01 introduction

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History has many examples of powerful companies that seem to be unbeatable. Then in a short time they become irrelevant due to new companies with new ideas. One of the factors in such transformation is technology. Never in history has technological change been so important in building and destroying companies.

We look at few examples of successful companies that fail to address the changing times and become disrupted. We also look at why technology emerges when it does and why some ideas can only be realised when certain conditions are met.

In this first lecture we set the tone for the course and define the themes that we will be looking at.

Publié dans : Technologie
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New Technology 2017 L01 introduction

  1. 1. NEW TECHNOLOGY 2017
  2. 2. Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
  3. 3. LECTURE L01 INTRODUCTION
  4. 4. Stephen Elop, 
 CEO Nokia 2011
  5. 5. In 2002 Nokia had 35% of the worlds mobile market In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the 
 worlds smartphone market
  6. 6. Falling from glory Nokia stock price 2007-2011
  7. 7. 1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and cables. 1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weighs almost 1kg. 1992: Sells non-mobile divisions and launches first digital GSM phone, the Nokia 1011. 2000: Stock market value hits 186bn euros. Now worth 11bn euros. 2003: Basic 1100 phone launched. Goes on to sell 250 million units and become the world's most popular consumer electronic device. 2011: Abandons Symbian mobile phone operating software and switches to the Windows platform instead. Source: Reuters/Nokia History of a survivor
  8. 8. The iPhone
  9. 9. Shift in power Source: Google
  10. 10. Shift in power
  11. 11. Early 2011, Elop said 
 in a memo they were 
 standing on a 
 burning platform
  12. 12. How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us evolved? This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally. Nokia, our platform is burning. Elop’s Memo - excerpts http://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop
  13. 13. Shift in power The Mobile Industry before 2007 Hardware Limitations Mobile OS “Mobile” Internet Walled garden Predefined functionality The Mobile Industry after 2007 Software Full functionality Real OS Internet Open App store
  14. 14. The iPhone Effect
  15. 15. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced 
 a partnership with Microsoft
  16. 16. September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices
 and service business for $7.2 billion
  17. 17. Is this new…?
  18. 18. Western Union 1878 7,500 offices 12.000 employees 200,000 miles of cable
  19. 19. https://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/western-union/
  20. 20. Alexander G. Bell, 1876
  21. 21. "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." - Western Union internal memo, 1876.
  22. 22. AT&T became dominant in US communications - split up in 1982
  23. 23. Actually this is not even rare…
  24. 24. Britannica 1990 Sales: $650 million
  25. 25. Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet
  26. 26. Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere, 
 updated in real-time, 
 crowdsourced THEN NOW
  27. 27. And again…
  28. 28. In January 2010, Blockbuster 
 operated 5,200 stores worldwide
  29. 29. By September 2010, Blockbuster 
 files for bankruptcy
  30. 30. TECHNOLOGY 
 IS ONE OF THE 
 MAJOR
 FACTORS IN
 CHANGE
  31. 31. Today 3.4 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3 billions will connect There are more mobile devices connecting to the Internet than computers Printed newspapers and magazines are going out of business, those who survive will go online Bookstores are closing as sales of books decline CD sales are dropping rapidly as online streaming increases TV stations need to go on the internet or out of business Social networks are shaping our lives in ways we never imagined Amazon sells more digital books than printed books Over 6 billion hours of video are watched each month on YouTube Self-driving cars are taking to the roads People are starting to lose jobs because of robots Every day 864 million people log on to Facebook each day People are tracking the health and activity with sensors and gathering statistics in the cloud
  32. 32. UNDERSTANDING TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON PEOPLE, BUSINESSES
 AND SOCIETY
  33. 33. CAN WE LOOK FORWARD 3-5 YEARS TO SEE COMING CHANGES
  34. 34. LIVING IN THE FUTURE
  35. 35. Living in the future - predict how technology will impact businesses in the next 3-5 years
  36. 36. “Humanity will change more in the next 20 years than in the past 300 years” — Gerd Leonhard
  37. 37. This was in 1991
  38. 38. Then in 2016 this happens…
  39. 39. Is Virtual Reality really real or just fake?
  40. 40. WHY WAS 2016 THE TIME FOR VIRTUAL REALITY?
  41. 41. ADJACENT POSSIBLE WHEN ALL 
 THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND CONDITIONS ARE READY, 
 NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE
  42. 42. ROOMS FAR OUT
 ARE SCIENCE FICTION
  43. 43. EXPONENTIAL
 GROWTH
  44. 44. The Age of Information
  45. 45. 1947 Programmable all-purpose electronic computers start to have impact on big businesses and government Automation starts, jobs get lost IBM mainframes Mainframe
  46. 46. 1965 Minicomputers allow mid-sized companies and academia to have time shared computing power Automation continues Minicomputers
  47. 47. Fifth Technological Revolution starts Intel 1971 The Technology Trigger 1971
  48. 48. 1981 Personal Computer allowed small companies and individuals to own and program computers Generative platform Opened up a huge revolution - created a new industry Personal Computers
  49. 49. IRRUPTION
  50. 50. 1995 Opened up a new way for people to communicate and exchange data Generative platform, 
 permissionless innovation Created new industries, transformed businesses 3.4 billion connected Internet
  51. 51. FRENZY
  52. 52. “This time it’s different”
  53. 53. 2007 The smartphone revolution takes off with new possibilities Powerful computer in your pocket Access to 4 million apps Constant access to the Internet Smartphone
  54. 54. PDP-8 Computer from DEC in March 1965 Cost 18.500 USD 50.000 machines sold 12 bit architecture 32K memory 0,5 MIPS MIPS: millions instruction per second iPhone 6 Smartphone from
 September 2015 Cost $649 Sold 10 million phones
 in 3 days 64 bit architecture 128GB “capacity” 25.000 MIPS
  55. 55. From PDP-8 to the iPhone 6 50.000 times faster 50 years And has camera, sensors, speakers, Wi-Fi, etc…
  56. 56. We have a supercomputer in our pocket
  57. 57. 2000 2010 iMac iPhone iMac G3 Mac OS 9.0.4
 500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
 Screen - 786K pixels
 Storage - 30GB Hard Drive iPhone 4 iOS 4.0
 1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
 Screen - 614K pixels
 Storage - 32GB Flash Drive THE SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
  58. 58. MUSIC PICTURES COMMUNICATION SMARTPHONES TV SHOWS MOVIES BOOKS THE DIGITAL DECADE 2000 2010
  59. 59. 2000 2010 SOCIAL MEDIA
  60. 60. 3+ BILLION PEOPLE 
 ARE CONNECTED 
 TO THE INTERNET
  61. 61. Mainframe 1947 Minicomputer 1965 PC 1981 1995 Internet Smartphone 2007 The Shortening Waves
  62. 62. The Next Wave is built on the Smartphone Wave
  63. 63. What does this mean?
  64. 64. How will technology 
 change people’s behavior?
  65. 65. WE EMPHASIZE
 TECHNOLOGY BUT IGNORE THE SOCIAL AND CULTURAL IMPACT
  66. 66. Software eats the world
  67. 67. Intelligent Software
  68. 68. Real-time Software
  69. 69. Businesses are going though
 Digital Transformation
  70. 70. THE TRANSFORMATION 
 DECADE 2010 2020 BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 20TH CENTURY BUSINESS MODELS OF THE 21TH CENTURY
  71. 71. HIERARCHAL NETWORK 20th Century 21th Century
  72. 72. THE 
 DIGITAL DECADE THE CONTENT ESCAPES THE FORM INTERNET DISRUPTION BEGINS 1900 2000 From hierarchical structure to networks From broadcasting to streaming - long tail From Read-only culture to read-write culture The Move to Networks THE 
 TRANSFORMATION DECADE BUSINESS MODELS CHANGE SMARTPHONES
 REAL TIME SOFTWARE CLOUD AND AI 2010
  73. 73. 2010 2020 Defined Industry Boundaries Single-purpose Products Producers and Consumers Buying Economy Hierarchical Structure Platforms, ecosystems Connected Smart Products User as producer, co-creation Sharing economy Network Structure The Transformation Decade Broadcasting Streaming Gatekeepers Algorithms 2010 2020
  74. 74. MANY 2 MANY: 
 PEER INTERACTION ESTABLISHED BUSINESS MODELS GET DISRUPTED READ WRITE CULTURE ONE 2 MANY: 
 BROADCASTING BUSINESS MODELS GET ESTABLISHED READ ONLY CULTURE BEFORE NOW CONTROLLED BY GATEKEEPERS CONTROLLED BY CONSUMERS
  75. 75. Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable BEFORE NOW THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET
  76. 76. Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture BEFORE NOW CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE
  77. 77. OUR DEVICES ARE GATEWAYS TO THE CLOUD
  78. 78. FUNDAMENTAL
 SHIFT IN
 PEOPLE’S
 BEHAVIOUR
  79. 79. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 CONSUMING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
  80. 80. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 PRODUCING CONTENT Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo
  81. 81. FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN
 CONNECTING PEOPLE
  82. 82. END
 OF
 CONTROL
  83. 83. The Smartphone
  84. 84. 4+ billion people have smartphone Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides
  85. 85. If you want to get customers to use software, 
 you cannot ignore mobile Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides The Internet Bubble
  86. 86. Source: ITU, a16z, Benedict Evans slides And we are talking about apps not mobile web - its not a 
 technical question
  87. 87. People check their smartphone over 100 times per day
  88. 88. Internet of Things
  89. 89. Everyday objects get sensors and software and connect to the Internet
  90. 90. Thing Smartthing Processors Sensors Software Connected smartthing Processors Sensors Software Source: HBR Farming system Planters Tillers Tractor Combine
 harvesters Ecosystem
  91. 91. Smart farming
  92. 92. Accelerometer Gyroscope Magnetometer Barometer Proximity Light sensor Touch screens GPS WiFi Bluetooth GSM/CDMA Cell NFC - Near Field Camera front Camera back Sensors
  93. 93. Fitness tracking – healthy
 lifestyle
  94. 94. Jawbone UP fitness tracker
  95. 95. Philips HUE light system
  96. 96. iGrill thermometer
  97. 97. Sonos sound system
  98. 98. Real-time algorithms
  99. 99. Using computers in the Information era: you sit down and use the computer just as any tool
  100. 100. Using computers in the digital era: The computer tells you what is happening and what you need to do Real-time Algorithms
  101. 101. Rise of online ordering and delivery services
  102. 102. Transformation from Hierarchical to Networks
  103. 103. The 20th century society structure was hierarchical – government, companies, any form of communication Coordination cost is high
  104. 104. The 21st century society becomes a network – software connects individuals Coordination drops to zero
  105. 105. UBER protests
  106. 106. Any business that is built around a hierarchy with high coordination cost, will be crushed by a networked software solution with low coordination cost
  107. 107. The Physical blends with the Digital
  108. 108. Augmented reality – overlaying digital over the physical
  109. 109. Microsoft HoloLens
  110. 110. Gaming, instructions, design, prototyping etc. will fundamentally change
  111. 111. Virtual reality - completely enter the virtual world
  112. 112. Gaming, learning, travelling, exploring, movies, entertainment, etc. will fundamentally change
  113. 113. NBA is experimenting with VR
  114. 114. Ever wanted to be in a formula 1 race?
  115. 115. Virtual Reality surgery
  116. 116. Virtual Reality for training and better information
  117. 117. Machine Learning
  118. 118. Artificial Intelligence has been a failure for decades – but now it is starting to work
  119. 119. Powerful Neural network algorithms Cluster of thousands of fast GPU machines Big data – lots of data And you get something clever
  120. 120. Learn how to play video games
  121. 121. Learn language translation – in real-time
  122. 122. Learn language translation – in real-time
  123. 123. “The business plans of the next 10,000 startups are easy to forecast: Take X and add AI.” -- Kevin Kelly
  124. 124. Chatbots
  125. 125. Interact with business services and experts like you do with your friends Facebook released an API for chatbots Wit.ai Bot Engine for natural language assistance 900 million people use Messenger
  126. 126. Amazon Echo Device that you can speak with And listens to all your conversations
  127. 127. We are seeing the transformation of old established physical ways of doing business into new ways that are optimized around real-time software systems – this is called Digital Transformation
  128. 128. New Technology 2017

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