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20081129 2008.Black Swan
1. O. Max Gardner IIIO. Max Gardner III
Max Gardner’sMax Gardner’s
Bankruptcy Boot CampsBankruptcy Boot Camps
TheThe
Black SwanBlack Swan
2. The Black Swan
• No Ability to Predict the Future Based
on Historial Models
• Events are Subject to the Laws of
Random Seclection
• Lack of Ability to Control the Present
or the Future
• Law of Unintended Consequences
3. Black Swan for the US
The ECONOMY
• Mortgage Meltdown
• Bank Failures
• Hedge Funds Collapse
• Banks Stop Lending
• Credit Markets Seize
• Bailouts Don’t Work
• Foreclosures Out of Control