Opening keynote by Bart Schutz of Online Dialogue at the Digital Analytics 2017 Conference in Utrecht, the Netherlands: Marshmallows and the psychology behind evidence based growth

1. @BartS
CRO: Outsourcing - Academy - Consultancy
ü Learn more on PSYCHOLOGY: WheelofPersuasion.com/course
ü Or let us LEVERAGE your GROWTH: Onlinedialogue.nl

2. @BartS
Marshmallows, "
& the Psychology"
behind Evidence-Based Growth
@BartS

3. @BartS

4. @BartS
Unconscious,
Automatic,
Heuristic processes
Conscious,
Lazy controller,
Rational (-izing)
(always on)
(lazy controller)
System 1
System 2

5. @BartS

6. @BartS
A unique visitor= "
2 processing systems

7. @BartS
Illusion "
of control

8. @BartS
boy
?
33%

9. @BartS
“If you torture the data long
enough, it will confess”
Roald Coase
Your daily
Marshmallow test

10. @BartS
the Psychology"
behind Evidence-Based Growth
2) Informational
3) Transformational
1) Transactional

11. @BartS
Unconscious,
Automatic,
Heuristic processes
Conscious,
Lazy controller,
Rational (-izing)
(always on)
(lazy controller)
System 1
System 2
System 2 is
not the best optimizer!

12. @BartS
Stop THINK-ing
Start ACT-ting

13. @BartS
@BartS

14. @BartS
You’re NOT
pregnant
Power-based SAMPLE SIZE CALCULATOR:
http://abtestguide.com/abtestsize
“Under-powered
testing will kill you”

15. @BartS
Don’t waist growth
with bad testing!

16. @BartS
B
A
“Unique users are actually
unique device-browser
combinations”

17. @BartS
B
A
ABBA
effect
Do NOT test without
taking pollution into account

18. @BartS
Calculate INCLUDING
sample pollution

19. @BartS
@BartS
#gms17

20. @BartS

21. @BartS
Bandwidth:
Maximum amount of tests

22. @BartS

23. @BartS
“Our success at Amazon is
a function of how many
experiments we do…”
Jeff Bezos - Amazon
Regret:
Every test missed = growth missed

24. @BartS
Business Case: Minimizing regret

25. @BartS
2) Informational
3) Transformational
1) Transactional
the Psychology"
behind Evidence-Based Growth

26. @BartS
Unconscious,
Automatic,
Heuristic processes
Conscious,
Lazy controller,
Rational (-izing)
(always on)
(lazy controller)
System 1
System 2

27. @BartS
How to recognize the systems?
Example
indicators
User flow
Follow ideal paths
Are all over the place
Time of day
Mornings
Afternoon
Day of week
Mondays
Fridays
Network
WiFi
3G / 4G
Conversion rate
High base rates
Low base rates
Source
Direct & Long-tail search
Social, Mail, Display,…
…
…
…
1st question: "
Which system is active?
(always on)
(lazy controller)
System 1
System 2

28. @BartS
The Square of PersuasionTM
Ability &
Mo,va,on
System 1
System 2
Ac2ve
System1
System2
Desired

29. @BartS
A
B
Winner
System 2 – System 2

30. @BartS
Winner
A
B
System 2 – System 2

31. @BartS
The Square of PersuasionTM
Ability &
Mo,va,on
System 1
System 2
Ac2ve
System1
System2
Desired

32. @BartS
Ability &
Mo,va,on
Heuris,cs &
Habits
System 1
System 2
Ac2ve
System1
System2
Desired
The Square of PersuasionTM

33. @BartS
System 1
System 2
Behavioral
study

34. @BartS
A
B
Winner
A
B
Loser
System 1 – System 1
System 2 – System 2

35. @BartS
Winner
A
B
Loser
A
B
System 1 – System 1
System 2 – System 2

36. @BartS
Experimental program:
Few hundred of experiments

37. @BartS
Ability &
Mo,va,on
Heuris,cs &
Habits
System 1
System 2
Ac2ve
System1
System2
Desired
The Square of Persuasion

38. @BartS
Distrac,on &
Overload
Heuris,cs &
Habits
System 1
System 2
Ac2ve
System1
System2
Desired
The Square of PersuasionTM

39. @BartS
Ability &
Mo,va,on
System 1
System 2
Ac2ve
System1
System2
Desired
Trigger &
Forced Choices
The Square of PersuasionTM

40. @BartS
Ability &
Mo,va,on
Trigger &
Forced Choices
Distrac,on &
Overload
Heuris,cs &
Habits
System 1
System 2
Ac2ve
System1
System2
Desired
The Square of PersuasionTM

41. @BartS
Behavior Insights Grid (BIG™)

42. @BartS
2) Informational
3) Transformational
1) Transactional
the Psychology"
behind Evidence-Based Growth

43. @BartS

44. @BartS

45. @BartS
3) Transformational
1) Transactional
2) Informational
the Psychology"
behind Evidence-Based Growth

46. @BartS
Marketing
Decision
Behavior

47. @BartS
Personal factors
Marketing
Decision
Behavior
Nature
Nurture

48. @BartS
Situational Factors
Personal factors
Marketing
Decision
Behavior
Nature
Nurture
Emotions
Context
Environment
Fundamental
attribution error

49. @BartS
Situational Factors
Personal factors
Marketing
Decision
Behavior
Nature
Nurture
Emotions
Context
Environment
Nature
Nurture
Emotions
Context
Environment

50. @BartS
Nature
Nurture
Emotions
Context
Environment

51. @BartS
Emotions
Nurture
Nature
Environment
Context

52. @BartS
Winner
A
B
A
B
Loser
3G / 4G
WiFi

53. @BartS
System1
System2

54. @BartS
B
A
Winner

55. @BartS

56. @BartS
1) Transactional
2) Informational
3) Transformational
the Psychology"
behind Evidence-Based Growth

57. @BartS
Psychology + Evidence ="
a transformational understanding "
of what drives Homo Sapiens
@BartS
#gms17

58. @BartS
Internet is "
the BIGGEST psychological"
experiment ever
@BartS
#gms17

59. @BartS
With big intelligence "
comes big responsibility
Evidence everything
Evidence everything
Ethical everything

60. @BartS
Let us boost your growth:
http://onlinedialogue.nl
Or learn more on "
CONSUMER PSYCHOLOGY:
http://WheelofPersuasion.com/course
Thank you!
@BartS