15/3 -17 impact exponential technologies
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This document discusses how emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, digital biology, robotics, and nanotechnology are advancing exponentially and will transform our future in unprecedented ways. It summarizes key points about how within a few decades, machines may surpass human-level intelligence, leading to a technological singularity. It also emphasizes the importance of developing these technologies in a way that aligns with human values like democracy, liberty, and compassion to ensure they are beneficial to humanity. The document provides examples of the impact technologies may have on jobs, health, and other aspects of society, as well as perspectives on how to guide technological progress responsibly.
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15/3 -17 impact exponential technologies
- 1. Technology is determining our future Paul Epping, Chapter lead March 15th Chapter SU Dubai presentation
- 2. Who or what will be thinking for me? #SUChapterDubai
- 8. When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at will change Wayne Dyre
- 9. Driver of exponential growth of technology
- 11. First tools
- 12. Extermination of big mammals On the move Extension of our stomach Fire
- 13. The last 10 seconds
- 14. 14
- 15. Exponential technological growth at reduced cost for performance Bandwidth Storage Cost Computing Cost 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 $ per gB per Sec. $ per 1M transistors $ per gB 1992 Today $ Time Video conferencing Digital camera GPS Scanning Calculator Cloud storage Digital dictaphone Music player Video player Etc. Software solutions for free
- 16. A gap that we usually don’t conceive as a gap
- 17. Examples of exponential technologies Cognitivecomputing Nano technology Digital biology Genomics Energy 3D printing Digitization Robotics
- 18. The law of acceleration returns will be seen at the intersections of exponential technologies
- 20. Effect that we see, experience All technology that will digitize, add information to itDigitize 1 Stages of innovation to understand that disruption is just one phase The 6 D’s according to P. Diamandis In the early stage small doublings => once it hits the knee you’re 10 doublings away from a thousand, twenty doublings to reach a million; thirty doublings to get to a billion Deceptive 2 Any innovation that creates a new market and disrupts an existing one Disruptive 3 You don’t have separated solutions (flashlight, GPS or camera,….) Instead => apps on your smartphone Dematerializatio n 5 You can reach very quickly very large groups of peopleDemocratization 6 An existing product or service will available for free or way cheaper (Uber, Airbnb, FB, Skype, Whatsapp, etc) Demonetizatio n 4 ReshapedourworldRevolutionizeour world
- 21. Examples of results on the intersections
- 29. Bob Radocy at Cybathlon
- 32. Ultrasound in your pocket
- 33. Philips Minicare
- 34. Develop and demonstratehow humanscan collaborate with powerful AI technologies to tackle the world’s grand challenges
- 35. xPrize: 21 medical conditions (10 required, 5 elective) including diabetes anemia, sleep apnea, atrial fibrillation, RR (should weight < 5 pounds)
- 37. A look inside
- 38. 24/7 Connectivity: The Internet of Medical Things 38 Always-on personalized connected health services at the point of care Population health management
- 39. Perceived Benefits and Negative Consequences of 12 Emerging Technologies (WEF’17) 75 % will affect HC!
- 40. Now Tomorrow Interne t Now we can make the “math” ourselves
- 42. The neocortex as differentiator 100 million modules built for pattern recognition
- 43. Dendrites generate nearly 10 times more electrochemical spikes than neuron cell bodies Computational power bigger than thought
- 45. AI start ups in the US, 2016 =>160 Since 2012 => 648
- 48. Three forms of Artificial Intelligence 1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence 2. Artificial General Intelligence 3. Artificial Super Intelligence These three are often lumped together as AI This confuses the discussion about AI
- 49. Professor Stephen Hawking (Photo Credit: NASA/Paul Alers) www.gizmag.com
- 51. Our brains are getting augmented, but socially we are weakening Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http:/ / host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http:/ / host. dom ain.tl d
- 52. And all connected to the internet… Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d Ca rri er 12: 34 PMWeb Page Title http: // host. dom ain.tl d
- 53. Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991 By 2030-2050 millions of people could become augmented geniuses, and what could they create?
- 56. Do “they” really understand….??
- 58. Brains are in!Our future Hybrid Synthetic Brain?
- 59. AI will dominate us… and now? R L Merge typical human values like love, liberty, democracy, compassion, tolerance with AI. This inheritance will be an opportunity for a better world.
- 60. Asilomar AI principles Research Issues Goal Funding Culture Race avoidance Science Politics link Non- subversion Ethics & Values AI Arms race Shared prosperity Liberty & Privacy Human values Responsi bility Safety Human control Shared benefit Personal privacy Value alignment Judicial transpare ncy Failure transpare ncy Longer term Issues Recursive Self- improvem ent Common good Risks Import ance Capability caution
- 61. Singularity?
- 62. Singularity?
- 63. The 6 Epochs: Evolution works through indirection: it creates a capability and then uses that capability to evolve the next stage. 16-03-17 63
- 64. My key learnings • Change yourself or you will be changed • Exponential growth of technology will force us to change gears • Unprecedented confluence of disruptive technologies (synthetic biology, AI, nano, sensors, robots, etc.) will improve our physical health • Machines will surpass human intelligence soon and cross an irreversible point • No future for diseases: genomics – nano - AI- digital biology • Merging human values with AI for co-existential sustainability • Lost of millions of jobs < 10 years, but are we ready to focus on opportunities (education)? • By 2020 we have 2 billion new minds joining the internet, 2 billion inventors… • Many organizations build their strategies on linear foundations whereas the exponential world is around the corner. New business models are needed • There will be a world of abundance, but who will benefit from that? • Technology encourages superficiality (millenniums)
- 65. Influential books (must reads … if you have time)
- 66. In the end it’s all about ideas ……. let ideas meet each other
- 67. .Thank You . © 2017 Singularity University Paul Epping PaulEpping PaulEpping