Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.

What are we doing to our climate? What is it doing to us? What can we do?

782 vues

Publié le


I will be introducing you to ECONOMIC, ECOLOGICAL, and TECHNOLOGICAL ISSUES.

¥ Climate change is an unintended consequence of carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels.
¥ By pricing in the social and environmental cost of these emissions, we can expedite their reduction. Let’s harness profit greed towards green technology development.
¥ The environmental challenge is to balance the beauty and sacredness of nature with its utility.

What are we doing to our climate? The scientific consensus. Tides and temperatures are rising. Since the beginning of the industrial age, emissions from fossil fuel burning have raised carbon dioxide concentrations to 410 ppm. This is 33% higher than in the last million years. This increase is warming our planet via the Greenhouse Effect. At the present rate of carbon dioxide increase, we will reach 800 ppm by 2100. When our earth was at this concentration 40 million years ago, it was so warm that there was no ice. Sea levels were about 300 feet higher than today.

What is climate change doing to us? “The earth and its poor cry out, and we must listen” Pope Francis. Dry regions are drier and wet ones wetter. Wildfires have increased threefold since 1970, storms more violent, floods setting record heights, and glaciers melting. Natural catastrophes are occurring more than twice as frequently as in 1980. Sea levels could rise as high as 18 feet by 2060. Parts of Earth are increasingly uninhabitable, resulting in millions of climate change refugees, CLIMmigration.

What can we do? Religion and science matter. Ethics trumping economics. Let’s yoke our knowledge of climate science with the motivational power of spiritual values. We need to reduce our carbon footprints. We now have the option to purchase green electric cars getting the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon and solar PV panels to lower our electric bills. We can support the Citizen’s Climate Lobby which advocates a revenue neutral carbon production fee resulting in a dividend returned to all. This would stimulate our economy creating millions of jobs and increase the deployment of green solar, wind, and nuclear energy sources. Thorium, in addition to uranium, is a green energy source for the future. Republicans are less afraid of nuclear energy than Democrats.

Publié dans : Environnement
  • Identifiez-vous pour voir les commentaires

  • Soyez le premier à aimer ceci

What are we doing to our climate? What is it doing to us? What can we do?

  1. 1. 1 1.WHAT ARE WE DOING TO OUR CLIMATE? 2. WHAT IS OUR CLIMATE DOING TO US? 3, WHAT CAN WE DO? By Paul H. Carr, IEEE Life Fellow IRAS Climate Conference Champion
  2. 2. 2 IRAS CONFERENCE OVERVIEW Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in: economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms. A goal of the Institute of Religion in an Age of Science (IRAS) is to yoke climate science with the power of spiritual values. .
  3. 3. 3 • Scientists will be introducing you to economic, ecological, and technological issues. • Theologians and philosophers will develop the ethical imperative to address climate change with the power of spiritual values, grounded in the sacredness of nature created by a divine power.
  4. 4. 4 OVERVIEW OF MY TALK • Climate change is an unintended consequence of carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels. • Let’s harness our profit greed to develop green technology. • By pricing in the social and environmental cost of fossil fuel emissions, we can reduce and eliminate them.
  5. 5. 1. WHAT ARE WE DOING TO OUR CLIMATE? The scientific consensus. The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 BILLION IS INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2. a. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a rate of 2.5 ppm per year. b. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES 18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower. 5
  6. 6. 2017 CO2 levels of 410 ppm are 130 ppm above the pre- industrial average 1875 • Carbon isotope ratios indicate the CO2 increase since1750 is from burning ~300 million yr old fossil fuels. 1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING 6 Little Ice Age
  8. 8. CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE. CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature. Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet), giving rise to Flood stories. 4 M PEOPLE 7 B Ice Age Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012) During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. 8 Holocene Era
  9. 9. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere. 9
  10. 10. At present rate of 2.5 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a rate 300 times faster than the recovery from the ice age 18,000 - 10,000 years ago. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS, COULD REACH ~800 PPM, DOUBLING BY 21OO. Ice Age 10
  11. 11. • Our present level of 410 ppm could reach ~ 800 ppm by 2100. • Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm. • Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm -Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher. Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS 11
  12. 12. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014. CO2, METHANE, & GERMS ARE RELEASED AS THE FROZEN TUNDRA MELTS ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO 12
  13. 13. 13 2. WHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US. “The earth and its poor cry out, and we must listen” Pope Francis • Rising sea levels from thermal expansion and melting mountain glaciers, Greenland, & Antarctica. • Oceans becoming more acidic from CO2 absorption, threatening the bottom of the food chain. • Weather extremes are increasing: -Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods & Snow. Atmosphere holds more water vapor at higher temps. -Dry areas, drier: Expanded Deserts, Droughts & Wildfires. • Climate Refugees ”CLIMmigration” from droughts. • Health Hazards - Tick-born Lyme Disease doubled since 1990 as winters warm. - West-Nile and Zika Viruses could increase. - Germs released as Arctic melts, Anthrax cases reported.
  14. 14. RISING SEAS • Sea levels are now rising 4 times faster than in 1900. • Sea levels could rise up to 18 ft by 2058. • 2015 & 2016: warmest years on record. SOLUTIONS: Green Technology Expedited by Legislation..
  15. 15. “Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High Tides.” Whitney Bauman
  16. 16. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602) Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/). Sea level rise has increased to 12 in/century at present from 3 in/century 1870– 1924. 12 in./100 years. 7.5 in./100 years 3 in. /100 years
  17. 17. GREENLAND IS MELTING FASTER: Reflecting snow replaced by absorbing water. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking-weather/essick- photography
  18. 18. Climate Scientist Jim Hansen’s 1981 Temperature Predictions Came True. What about his 2016 sea level rise prediction of 18 feet by 2058 ? 1981 2015
  19. 19. This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University. Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described by Hansen et al. 2016 & 2015 Warmest years On Record “CO2 warming should emerge from the noise of natural variability (1981)” Hansen
  20. 20. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem- phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling…. James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson- Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12,…. 1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016
  21. 21. Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to prevent a 5 m (18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100s of years. Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016. J. Hansen et. al. 1 M TIPPING LEVEL
  22. 22. 5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise
  23. 23. NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of Mexico, Western Antarctica. Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University, an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from it rocky berth, it would raise sea levels 10 ft.” 24
  24. 24. 25 March for Science, Earth Day, April 22, 2017 Poster.
  25. 25. 26 Weather Extremes Have More Than Doubled
  26. 26. 27 Three Fold Increase in Wildfires since 1970 Fort McMurray Wildfire: 80,000 Evacuated Over Out-of-Control Blaze, May 2016. Nature ”crying out” to destroy the Canadian oil sands mining? Environmental Justice? Droughts increase wildfires. Warmer winters no longer kill off the Western Pine beetle, leaving more dead trees as flammable timber.
  27. 27. Arab Spring after food price increases. Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat. CLIMmigration: Before the 2011 Syrian revolution, 2006.- 2009 drought in Syria led 1.5 million farmers to migrate to cities. Migration is continuing. REVOLUTIONS & CLIMATE MIGRATON FOLLOWING DROUGHTS
  28. 28. 3. WHAT WE CAN DO: A. ADAPTATON, A MUST DO. B. MITIGATION: NON-CO2 EMITTING SOLAR, WIND, STORAGE & NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY, ACCELERATED BY CARBON FEE PLUS DIVIDEND. Harnessing profit greed towards green. C Do nothing different: then complain and blame. The poor will suffer the most. Pope Francis “On Care for our Common Home.”
  29. 29. SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL WARMING from CO2 Electric Cars powered by • Windmills • Solar PV energy from nuclear fusion in our sun. • Nuclear Fission Power Plants Electric cars now get the equivalent of 100 miles per gallon. If everyone bought a hybrid or electric car, oil companies would go the way of many coal companies: bankrupt.
  30. 30. 2012 Chevy Volt Plug-In Hybrid: 90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery 40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator 350 mile range.
  31. 31. 2016 NISSAN LEAF® As low as: $27,700*Net value after federal tax credit 106City MPGal 107 mi range. Leaf bought for $10,000 after 3 year Mitusbishi i ELECTRIC CARS
  32. 32. ALL ELECTRIC 2017 CHEVY BOLT EV • 238 mile range after charging. • 120 mpg equivalent • Acceleration 0 to 60 mpg in 6.3 second, about ½ that of Tesla Model S, but the Bolt’s cost is ½, about $33,000 with the Federal rebate. The batteries, motor, and one-speed transmission are made in S. Korea. The Bolt is assembled in Michigan.
  33. 33. 35 E. Will a New Glass Battery Accelerate the End of Oil? IEEE SPECTRUM 3 March 2017 John Goodenough, 94 co-inventor (1980) of the lithium-ion battery, heads a team of researchers developing the technology that could one day supplant it. The lithium- or sodium-glass battery has three times the energy storage capacity of a comparable lithium-ion battery. “”The next step is to verify that the cathode problem is solved,” Goodenough says. “And when we do [that] we can scale up to large-scale cells. Yet, the world has seen alleged game- changing battery breakthroughs come to naught before.
  34. 34. 36 3. Reduced Food Waste (70.53) 4. Plant-Rich Diet (66.11) POPULATION REDUCTION: 6. Educating Girls (59.60) 7. Family Planning (59.60)
  35. 35. 37Contrary to Trump’s claim, reducing CO2 emissions in 1980 & 2010 did not wreck our economy, i.e. decrease our GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
  36. 36. 38 India,with a billion people similar to China, is a Wild Card that could equal China’s emissions.
  37. 37. 39 Why are per person carbon emissions in the US twice those of Europe? $0.30. Gasoline $1.00 Gasoline 2X price in US Natural gas cheaper than coal.
  38. 38. 10/9/15 www. CitizensClimateLobby.org - Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. (RNCFD) -Dividend would be returned to everyone. $2000 / family. -Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs. - Stimulate Green Energy Innovation. True social cost of burning fossil fuels. Harness Greed towards Green
  39. 39. Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing Schools must sometimes be closed. World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3 Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3 One million deaths per year globally. HEALTH COSTS OF COAL BURNING Air pollutants from coal combustion act on the respiratory system, contributing to serious health effects including asthma, lung disease and lung cancer,
  41. 41. Nuclear power paves the only viable path forward on climate change, By NASA’s Dr. James Hansen , MIT’s Prof. Kerry Emanuel, and two other top climate scientists, (Op-Ed Guardian, 3 Dec 2015) They stated, “Modern nuclear technology can reduce proliferation risks and solve the waste disposal problem by burning current waste and using fuel more efficiently. Innovation and economies of scale can make new power plants even cheaper than existing plants.” Engineers at MIT are designing a nuclear plant that could be moored at sea, like an oil rig. It would cost about one-third less than a conventional plant and take about half the time to build. Floating reactors wouldn’t be in anyone’s backyard (NIMBY).
  42. 42. Bill Gates is funding a solution to the nuclear waste problem. http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-private-nuclear-fission- plant-terrapower-2016-4 Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear pilot plant will be built with the China National Nuclear Corp. The economics, safety, waste, and all the key parameters are dramatically improved. The traveling wave reactor converts depleted uranium, a byproduct of the nuclear-fission process, into usable fuel.
  43. 43. 45 Alvin Weinberg demonstrated a Thorium nuclear fission reactor at Oak Ridge in 1970. Its fission byproducts had no weapons value during the Cold War’s nuclear arms race and zero chance of a meltdown. Thorium reactors lost to Navy Admiral Rickover’s Uranium ones for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. Present uranium civilian reactors, which generate 20% of our electricity without carbon emissions, are a spinoff from Rickover’s navy technology.
  44. 44. How fear of nuclear power is hurting the environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael Shellenberger BACKGROUND: • SOLAR ENERGY IS NUCLEAR. The energy that enables life on earth comes from the nuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium in our sun. • Solar energy is available 26% of the time, wind 33% of the time, and nuclear 24/7
  45. 45. GLOBALLY: The 7% decrease in Nuclear generated electricity is greater than the +3.8% increase in Solar & Wind. To make up for the difference, we are burning more fossil fuels, which increase our carbon dioxide emissions . This is particularly true in Germany. Electricity cost is twice that in the US.
  46. 46. 48
  47. 47. Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017 James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016 http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear- Energy-Boom-In-2017.html When I asked MIT Prof of Nuclear Science & Engineering, Ian Hutchison about this he replied, “The Republicans are less scared of nuclear energy than the Democrats.” https://clearpath.org “Conservative Clean Energy” advocates nuclear.
  48. 48. 50 1.WHAT ARE WE DOING TO OUR CLIMATE, Scientific Consensus 2. WHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US. “The earth and the poor cry out. We must listen.” Pope Francis Act now or swim later. 3, WHAT CAN WE DO. • Let’s harness our profit greed towards encouraging green technology. Former Republican Treasury Secretary Charles Shultz advocates the CCL carbon fee plus dividend to reduce CO2 emissions and create jobs. • Solar energy is nuclear. Reactors are a way forward.
  49. 49. 51 She was a plenary speaker at our 1969 IRAS conference. * * * Ask not what our country can do for you. Ask what you can do now to save our planet.
  50. 50. 52 We need an IRAS author to write a climate change book to make a similar impact. RACHEL CARSON’S “SILENT SPRING” (1962) LED TO THE BANNING OF DDT
  51. 51. 53 The following slides contain supplemental details that may be of interest. Paul H. Carr Web page www.MirrorOfNature.org To learn about the other speakers at the IRAS www.iras.org Conference, “The Wicked Problem of Climate Change: What is it doing to us and for us? Please visit http://thewickedproblemofclimatechange.weebly.com
  52. 52. 54
  53. 53. THORIUM MOLTEN SALT (MSR) NUCLEAR REACTORS Demonstrated 1965-1970 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory Would have been better for peaceful deployment. • Consume nearly 100% of their fuel, compared with 3% for older reactors with solid uranium fuel. • MSRs eliminate need for Yucca Mountain storage by consuming nuclear waste. • Thorium fluoride molten fuel for MSRs is of no weapons value. • Thorium fuel is more abundant and cheaper than uranium. • MSRs require no expensive containment since they operate close to atmospheric pressure. Shut down automatically without operator intervention. • India has large Thorium reserves and little Uranium. It plans to get 30% of its electrical energy from Thorium by 2050 • China is investing $350 million over five years to develop molten-salt reactors. It plans to build a two-megawatt test reactor by 2020.
  54. 54. Source Total Investment: 60 Year Project Annual Before-Tax Revenue Market Price to Break Even at 15 Years Life Span before Retooling Comparative ROI at 60 Years ($0.145/KWhr) Nuclear $17.0 Billion $1.244 Billion $0.12/KWhr 60 years $74.7 Billion Land-based wind + batteries $44.6 Billion $0.873 Billion $$0.11/KWhr 25 years $52.4 Billion Solar + Batteries $55.8 Billion $0.208 Billion $0.15/KWhr 25 years $12.5 Billion • Wind is available about 36% of the time and solar about 26%. Renewables need to charge batteries to supply electricity 24/7. • Kaui (Hawaii) is planning to use Tesla grid-level storage batteries and has a contract for $0.145/KWhr for 20 years. This is a small installation, but it can be used as a comparison. Telsa also offers grid level batteries for sale at $2.5 million/MW. Over 60 years, the standard license period for nuclear reactors, nuclear provides the largest return on investment
  55. 55. 57 Tesla CEO Elon Musk & Panasonic are building a $ 1 - 4 billion battery gigafactory.
  56. 56. 58
  57. 57. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/princeville-north-carolina-hurricane-matthew-floods-black- history.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news Linda Worsley outside her Princeville, NC home, which was demolished after being damaged in a flood from Hurricane Matthew (2016). Her town was also flooded out by Hurricane Floyd in 1999. These hurricanes used to occur every 100 years. The town may be abandoned.
  58. 58. The deserts in the US Southwest will expand into the central farm belt. - Farmable land in under-populated Canada will increase. - This will be similar for Siberia as a billion Chinese Clim-migrants move North Farmland in under-populated Siberia will increase. - Farmland in over-populated China will decrease.
  59. 59. 61 • Trump used this misinformation of 0.05C by 2030 and 0.2 C by 2100 to justify the US withdrawal from the Paris accord. MIT scientists clarified that the “Do Nothing” baseline is the Copenhagen 2009 carbon dioxide reductions. MIT calculates the “Paris promises” would result in a “significant reduction” of 1 C below present policy.
  60. 60. 62 The new Paris Accord New Pledges will not meet the 2 C reduction goal, but the 1 C decrease is a “significant reduction” below current policy.
  61. 61. 63 Carbon dioxide reduction impact of the Paris Accord Pledges. Mayor Bloomberg is leading a US consortium of States, Companies, Cities, and Universities that will meet our pledge.
  62. 62. 1750-2005: Even if the cloud albedo effect is assumed to have the maximum cooling value, there would still be a net warming of the climate due to human activities. (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2007Report) Solar Irradiance increased by only 0.2% since 1750. 64
  63. 63. Absorbed CO2 increases acidity, reduces the calcification rate, dissolves carbonate sea shells, and nature’s ability to sequester carbon. INCREASING ACIDIFICATION THREATENS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN
  64. 64. Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009 Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s.. Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X 66
  65. 65. •Seasonal variations, 6 ppm or 2%, are superposed on the C02 increase. • Population more than doubled since 1970 3.7 B 7 B 67
  66. 66. Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University and an author of the last IPCC report said, “It involves the physics of ice fracture that we really don’t understand. If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by three meters—nearly ten feet. The odds are in our favor that it won’t put three meters in the ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least some chance that something very nasty will happen.” 68
  67. 67. 69
  68. 68. The Coming Climate Crash: Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush. JUNE 21, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html (See Economic Risks of Climate, June 2014, http://riskybusiness.org) “We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked. A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure. Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.” 70