1.
1
1.WHAT ARE WE DOING
TO OUR CLIMATE?
2. WHAT IS OUR CLIMATE
DOING TO US?
3, WHAT CAN WE DO?
By Paul H. Carr,
IEEE Life Fellow
IRAS Climate
Conference
Champion

2.
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IRAS CONFERENCE OVERVIEW
Climate change is complex with causes
and consequences in:
economic,
ecological,
ethical, and
technological realms.
A goal of the Institute of Religion in an
Age of Science (IRAS) is to yoke climate
science with the power of spiritual values.
.

3.
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• Scientists will be introducing you to
economic,
ecological, and
technological issues.
• Theologians and philosophers will
develop the ethical imperative to
address climate change with the
power of spiritual values, grounded in
the sacredness of nature created by a
divine power.

4.
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OVERVIEW OF MY TALK
• Climate change is an unintended
consequence of carbon dioxide emissions
from burning fossil fuels.
• Let’s harness our profit greed to develop
green technology.
• By pricing in the social and environmental
cost of fossil fuel emissions, we can
reduce and eliminate them.

5.
1. WHAT ARE WE DOING TO OUR CLIMATE?
The scientific consensus.
The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 BILLION IS
INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS
THAT EMIT GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2.
a. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a
rate of 2.5 ppm per year.
b. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES
18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower.
5

6.
2017 CO2 levels
of 410 ppm are
130 ppm above
the pre-
industrial
average
1875
• Carbon
isotope ratios
indicate the
CO2 increase
since1750 is
from burning
~300 million yr
old fossil
fuels.
1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING
6
Little Ice Age

7.
• C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN.
• TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C
• TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C
HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite.
7

8.
CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE.
CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature.
Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet), giving rise to Flood stories.
4 M PEOPLE 7 B
Ice Age
Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012)
During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the
global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries.
8
Holocene Era

9.
Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface.
2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere.
9

10.
At present rate
of 2.5 ppm
rise per year,
humans are
increasing
CO2 at a rate
300 times
faster than
the recovery
from the ice
age 18,000 -
10,000 years
ago.
CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS,
COULD REACH ~800 PPM, DOUBLING BY 21OO.
Ice
Age
10

11.
• Our present level of 410 ppm could reach ~ 800 ppm by 2100.
• Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm.
• Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm
-Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher.
Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS
11

12.
A darker Arctic is boosting global warming
From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water
made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth.
http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract
Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014.
CO2, METHANE, & GERMS ARE RELEASED AS THE FROZEN TUNDRA MELTS
ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS
SATELITE PHOTO
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2. WHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US.
“The earth and its poor cry out, and we must listen” Pope Francis
• Rising sea levels from thermal expansion and
melting mountain glaciers, Greenland, & Antarctica.
• Oceans becoming more acidic from CO2 absorption,
threatening the bottom of the food chain.
• Weather extremes are increasing:
-Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods & Snow.
Atmosphere holds more water vapor at higher temps.
-Dry areas, drier: Expanded Deserts, Droughts & Wildfires.
• Climate Refugees ”CLIMmigration” from droughts.
• Health Hazards
- Tick-born Lyme Disease doubled since 1990 as winters warm.
- West-Nile and Zika Viruses could increase.
- Germs released as Arctic melts, Anthrax cases reported.

14.
RISING SEAS
• Sea levels are now rising 4 times
faster than in 1900.
• Sea levels could rise up to 18 ft
by 2058.
• 2015 & 2016: warmest years on
record.
SOLUTIONS: Green Technology
Expedited by Legislation..

15.
“Miami Beach is a flood zone during King High
Tides.” Whitney Bauman

16.
Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)
Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).
Sea level rise has increased to 12 in/century at
present from 3 in/century 1870– 1924.
12 in./100
years.
7.5 in./100 years
3 in. /100 years

17.
GREENLAND IS MELTING FASTER: Reflecting snow replaced by
absorbing water. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2010/06/viking-weather/essick-
photography

18.
Climate Scientist Jim Hansen’s 1981
Temperature Predictions Came True.
What about his 2016 sea level rise
prediction of 18 feet by 2058 ?
1981 2015

19.
This global temperature chart is updated at Columbia University.
Data is based on GISTEMP analysis (mostly NOAA data sources) as described
by Hansen et al.
2016 & 2015
Warmest
years
On Record
“CO2 warming
should emerge
from the noise
of natural
variability
(1981)” Hansen

20.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-
phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC
Attribution 3.0 License.
Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence
from paleoclimate data, climate modeling….
James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-
Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair
Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12,….
1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY
10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403,
USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880
Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du
Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol
Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075,
China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA
8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the
Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of
Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre
for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of
Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied
Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA
Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul – Accepted: 18 Feb 2016 – Published: 22 Mar 2016

21.
Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft) by 2050. Could we take action to
prevent a 5 m (18 ft) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100s of years.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., March
2016. J. Hansen et. al.
1 M TIPPING
LEVEL

22.
5 Meters (18 Feet) Sea Level Rise

23.
NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of
Mexico, Western Antarctica.
Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University,
an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites
Glacier breaks free from it rocky berth, it would raise sea
levels 10 ft.” 24

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25
March for
Science,
Earth Day,
April 22,
2017
Poster.

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Weather Extremes Have More
Than Doubled

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Three Fold
Increase in
Wildfires since
1970
Fort McMurray
Wildfire: 80,000
Evacuated Over
Out-of-Control
Blaze, May 2016.
Nature ”crying
out” to destroy
the Canadian oil
sands mining?
Environmental
Justice?
Droughts increase wildfires.
Warmer winters no longer kill off the
Western Pine beetle, leaving more dead
trees as flammable timber.

27.
Arab Spring after food price increases.
Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat.
CLIMmigration: Before the 2011 Syrian revolution, 2006.- 2009 drought in
Syria led 1.5 million farmers to migrate to cities. Migration is continuing.
REVOLUTIONS & CLIMATE MIGRATON FOLLOWING DROUGHTS

28.
3. WHAT WE CAN DO:
A. ADAPTATON, A MUST DO.
B. MITIGATION: NON-CO2 EMITTING
SOLAR, WIND, STORAGE & NUCLEAR
TECHNOLOGY, ACCELERATED BY
CARBON FEE PLUS DIVIDEND.
Harnessing profit greed towards green.
C Do nothing different: then complain and blame.
The poor will suffer the most. Pope Francis “On Care for our
Common Home.”

29.
SOLUTIONS TO GOBAL
WARMING from CO2
Electric Cars powered by
• Windmills
• Solar PV energy from
nuclear fusion in our sun.
• Nuclear Fission Power
Plants
Electric cars now get
the equivalent of
100 miles per gallon.
If everyone bought a hybrid or
electric car, oil companies
would go the way of many
coal companies: bankrupt.

30.
2012 Chevy Volt Plug-In Hybrid:
90 miles/gal running quietly on 40 mile battery
40 miles/gal highway with gasoline generator
350 mile range.

31.
2016 NISSAN
LEAF®
As low as:
$27,700*Net value
after
federal tax credit
106City MPGal
107 mi range.
Leaf bought for $10,000 after 3 year
Mitusbishi i
ELECTRIC
CARS

32.
ALL ELECTRIC 2017 CHEVY BOLT EV
• 238 mile range after charging.
• 120 mpg equivalent
• Acceleration 0 to 60 mpg in 6.3 second, about ½ that
of Tesla Model S, but the Bolt’s cost is ½,
about $33,000 with the Federal rebate.
The batteries, motor, and one-speed transmission are made
in S. Korea. The Bolt is assembled in Michigan.

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E. Will a New Glass Battery Accelerate the End of Oil?
IEEE SPECTRUM 3 March 2017
John Goodenough, 94 co-inventor (1980) of the
lithium-ion battery, heads a team of researchers
developing the technology that could one day
supplant it.
The lithium- or
sodium-glass battery
has three times the
energy storage
capacity of a
comparable lithium-ion
battery.
“”The next step is to
verify that the cathode
problem is solved,”
Goodenough says.
“And when we do
[that] we can scale up
to large-scale cells.
Yet, the world has
seen alleged game-
changing battery
breakthroughs come
to naught before.

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3. Reduced Food Waste
(70.53)
4. Plant-Rich Diet
(66.11)
POPULATION
REDUCTION:
6. Educating Girls (59.60)
7. Family Planning
(59.60)

35.
37Contrary to Trump’s claim, reducing CO2 emissions in 1980 & 2010 did not wreck
our economy, i.e. decrease our GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

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India,with a billion people similar to China, is a Wild
Card that could equal China’s emissions.

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Why are per person carbon emissions in the US twice those of Europe?
$0.30. Gasoline $1.00
Gasoline 2X price in US
Natural gas
cheaper than
coal.

38.
10/9/15
www.
CitizensClimateLobby.org
- Revenue neutral
carbon fee with
dividend. (RNCFD)
-Dividend would be
returned to
everyone.
$2000 / family.
-Stimulating
economy & creating
2 million jobs.
- Stimulate Green
Energy Innovation.
True social cost of burning fossil fuels.
Harness Greed towards Green

39.
Aerosol pollution from coal burning in Beijing
Schools must sometimes be closed.
World Health Organization safe level: 25 mg/m3
Aerosol level in Beijing: 505 mg/m3
One million deaths per year globally.
HEALTH
COSTS OF
COAL
BURNING
Air pollutants from
coal combustion act
on the respiratory
system, contributing to
serious health effects
including asthma, lung
disease and lung
cancer,

40.
PROBLEM: IN the US by
2040,
NATURAL GAS & COAL
WILL BE THE LARGEST
SOURCES OF ELECTRICITY.
SOLUTION:
NEXT GENERATION
NUCLEAR REACTORS
HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO INCREASE
AND THEREBY REDUCE
CARBON EMISSIONS 24/7
Figure from “Coal’s Last Kick” TIME, April 17, 2017
Not 24/7

41.
Nuclear power paves the only viable path forward
on climate change,
By NASA’s Dr. James Hansen , MIT’s Prof. Kerry Emanuel, and
two other top climate scientists, (Op-Ed Guardian, 3 Dec 2015)
They stated, “Modern nuclear technology can reduce
proliferation risks and solve the waste disposal problem
by burning current waste and using fuel more
efficiently. Innovation and economies of scale can
make new power plants even cheaper than existing
plants.”
Engineers at MIT are designing a nuclear plant
that could be moored at sea, like an oil rig. It would
cost about one-third less than a conventional plant and
take about half the time to build. Floating reactors
wouldn’t be in anyone’s backyard (NIMBY).

42.
Bill Gates is funding a solution to the
nuclear waste problem.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-talks-private-nuclear-fission-
plant-terrapower-2016-4
Gates said that TerraPower's nuclear
pilot plant will be built with the China
National Nuclear Corp. The economics,
safety, waste, and all the key parameters
are dramatically improved.
The traveling wave reactor converts
depleted uranium, a byproduct of the
nuclear-fission process, into usable
fuel.

43.
45
Alvin Weinberg demonstrated a
Thorium nuclear fission reactor
at Oak Ridge in 1970. Its fission
byproducts had no weapons
value during the Cold War’s
nuclear arms race and zero
chance of a meltdown.
Thorium reactors lost to Navy
Admiral Rickover’s Uranium
ones for nuclear submarines and
aircraft carriers. Present
uranium civilian reactors, which
generate 20% of our electricity
without carbon emissions, are a
spinoff from Rickover’s navy
technology.

44.
How fear of nuclear power is hurting
the environment | YouTube 2016 TED Talk by Michael
Shellenberger
BACKGROUND:
• SOLAR ENERGY IS NUCLEAR.
The energy that enables life on earth comes from the
nuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium in our sun.
• Solar energy is available 26% of the time,
wind 33% of the time,
and nuclear 24/7

45.
GLOBALLY: The 7%
decrease in Nuclear
generated electricity
is greater than the
+3.8% increase in
Solar & Wind.
To make up for the
difference, we are burning
more fossil fuels, which
increase our carbon
dioxide emissions .
This is particularly true in
Germany. Electricity cost is
twice that in the US.

46.
48

47.
Trump Could Fuel A Nuclear Energy Boom In 2017
James Stafford - Dec 06, 2016
http://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Could-Fuel-A-Nuclear-
Energy-Boom-In-2017.html
When I asked MIT Prof
of Nuclear Science &
Engineering,
Ian Hutchison about
this he replied, “The
Republicans are less
scared of nuclear
energy than the
Democrats.”
https://clearpath.org
“Conservative Clean
Energy” advocates nuclear.

48.
50
1.WHAT ARE WE DOING TO OUR CLIMATE, Scientific Consensus
2. WHAT OUR CLIMATE IS DOING TO US.
“The earth and the poor cry out. We must listen.” Pope Francis
Act now or swim later.
3, WHAT CAN WE DO.
• Let’s harness our profit greed towards encouraging green technology.
Former Republican Treasury Secretary Charles Shultz advocates the CCL
carbon fee plus dividend to reduce CO2 emissions and create jobs.
• Solar energy is nuclear. Reactors are a way forward.

49.
51
She was a plenary speaker at our 1969 IRAS conference.
* * *
Ask not what our country can do for you.
Ask what you can do now to save our planet.

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We need an IRAS author
to write a climate change
book to make a similar
impact.
RACHEL CARSON’S “SILENT SPRING”
(1962) LED TO THE BANNING OF DDT

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The following slides contain
supplemental details that may be of
interest.
Paul H. Carr
Web page www.MirrorOfNature.org
To learn about the other speakers at the IRAS www.iras.org
Conference, “The Wicked Problem of Climate Change: What
is it doing to us and for us?
Please visit
http://thewickedproblemofclimatechange.weebly.com

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53.
THORIUM MOLTEN SALT (MSR) NUCLEAR REACTORS
Demonstrated 1965-1970 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Would have been better for peaceful deployment.
• Consume nearly 100% of their fuel, compared with 3% for older reactors with
solid uranium fuel.
• MSRs eliminate need for Yucca Mountain storage by consuming nuclear
waste.
• Thorium fluoride molten fuel for MSRs is of no weapons value.
• Thorium fuel is more abundant and cheaper than uranium.
• MSRs require no expensive containment since they operate close to
atmospheric pressure. Shut down automatically without operator intervention.
• India has large Thorium reserves and little Uranium. It plans to get 30% of its
electrical energy from Thorium by 2050
• China is investing $350 million over five years to develop molten-salt reactors.
It plans to build a two-megawatt test reactor by 2020.

54.
Source Total Investment:
60 Year Project
Annual Before-Tax
Revenue
Market Price to
Break Even at 15
Years
Life Span
before
Retooling
Comparative
ROI at 60 Years
($0.145/KWhr)
Nuclear $17.0 Billion $1.244 Billion $0.12/KWhr 60 years $74.7 Billion
Land-based wind
+ batteries
$44.6 Billion $0.873 Billion $$0.11/KWhr 25 years $52.4 Billion
Solar + Batteries $55.8 Billion $0.208 Billion $0.15/KWhr 25 years $12.5 Billion
• Wind is available about 36% of the time and solar about 26%.
Renewables need to charge batteries to supply electricity 24/7.
• Kaui (Hawaii) is planning to use Tesla grid-level storage batteries and has a
contract for $0.145/KWhr for 20 years. This is a small installation, but it can
be used as a comparison. Telsa also offers grid level batteries for sale at
$2.5 million/MW.
Over 60 years, the standard license period for nuclear
reactors, nuclear provides the largest return on investment

55.
57
Tesla CEO Elon Musk & Panasonic are building a $ 1 - 4 billion battery gigafactory.

56.
58

57.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/us/princeville-north-carolina-hurricane-matthew-floods-black-
history.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
Linda Worsley outside her Princeville, NC home, which was
demolished after being damaged in a flood from Hurricane
Matthew (2016). Her town was also flooded out by Hurricane
Floyd in 1999. These hurricanes used to occur every 100
years. The town may be abandoned.

58.
The deserts in the US Southwest will expand into the central farm belt.
- Farmable land in under-populated Canada will increase.
- This will be similar for Siberia as a billion Chinese Clim-migrants move North
Farmland in under-populated Siberia will increase.
- Farmland in over-populated China will decrease.

59.
61
• Trump used this misinformation of 0.05C by 2030 and 0.2 C by 2100 to
justify the US withdrawal from the Paris accord.
MIT scientists clarified that the “Do Nothing” baseline is the Copenhagen
2009 carbon dioxide reductions. MIT calculates the “Paris promises” would
result in a “significant reduction” of 1 C below present policy.

60.
62
The new Paris Accord New Pledges will not meet the 2 C reduction goal, but
the 1 C decrease is a “significant reduction” below current policy.

61.
63
Carbon dioxide reduction impact of the Paris Accord Pledges.
Mayor Bloomberg is leading a US consortium of States,
Companies, Cities, and Universities that will meet our pledge.

62.
1750-2005: Even if
the cloud albedo
effect is assumed to
have the maximum
cooling value, there
would still be a net
warming of the
climate due to
human activities.
(UN Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change,
IPCC, 2007Report)
Solar Irradiance
increased by only 0.2%
since 1750.
64

63.
Absorbed CO2 increases acidity, reduces the calcification rate, dissolves
carbonate sea shells, and nature’s ability to sequester carbon.
INCREASING ACIDIFICATION THREATENS THE BOTTOM OF THE FOOD CHAIN

64.
Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements
MELTING OF GREENLAND & ANTARCTICA IS RAISING SEA LEVELS FASTER
Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet
Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009
Greenland’s largest glacier is now flowing faster towards the
sea 4 times faster than in the 1990s..
Since Sandy, 2012, Federal Coastal Flood Insurance is up 2X - 10X
66

65.
•Seasonal variations, 6 ppm or 2%, are superposed on the C02 increase.
• Population more than doubled since 1970
3.7 B
7 B
67

66.
Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State
University and an author of the last IPCC report
said, “It involves the physics of ice fracture that
we really don’t understand. If the Thwaites
Glacier breaks free from its rocky berth, that
would liberate enough ice to raise sea level by
three meters—nearly ten feet. The odds are in
our favor that it won’t put three meters in the
ocean in the next century,” says Alley. “But we
can’t absolutely guarantee that. There’s at least
some chance that something very nasty will
happen.”
68

67.
69

68.
The Coming Climate Crash:
Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession
By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush.
JUNE 21, 2014
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html
(See Economic Risks of Climate, June 2014, http://riskybusiness.org)
“We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to
both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and
growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.
A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to
develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs
as we and other nations develop new energy products and
infrastructure.
Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the
costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the
climate bubble.”
70