Identifying, structuring and piloting disruptive situations using agile type of methodologies Approaches and case study

2. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
MBA 2010 & Risk Management Module
(Prof. Emmanuel Fragnière)
Identifying, structuring and piloting disruptive situations
using agile type of methodologies
Approaches and case study
2

3. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Synopsis :
 Admin stuff
 About us
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis times
using agile type of methodologies
 A Case study : Designing & Implementing
Counter terrorism security for a leading brand in
the luxury Hotel Industry
 Wrap-up
April 17, 2010
3

4. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Time table
11:30 – 12:00 Concepts & Methodologies
12:00 – 12:15 Briefing Case Study
13:00 – 13:50 Working Groups :
- Solve Part A and
- Prepare 10’ Presentation
13:50 – 14:30 Plenum : Group Presentations Part A
14:30 – 15:20 Working Groups :
- Solve Part B
- Prepare 5’ Presentation
15:20 – 15:40 Plenum : Group Presentations
15:40 – 16:00 Wrap-up
4

5. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Synopsis
 Admin stuff
 About us
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis times
using agile type of methodologies
 A Case study : Implementing Counter terrorism
security for a leading brand in the luxury Hotel
Industry
 Results
April 17, 2010
5

6. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
About us
Patrick Bays Philippe Steinmann
 Lic. Econometrics, MBA IMD  Expert Auditor
 15 years of international  20 years of international
exposure in exposure in :
o the prototyping and the o the management of
implementation of disrutptive special projects
innovation o Supporting organizations
o change management within facing volatile situations
several industries (high growth rate,
turnaround)
 PwC, Tetra Pak, Swisscom,  KPMG, Ilta Holding,
UCB Pharma, Wake Asset Euroterminal
Management
 English, German, French  English, French
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7. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Synopsis :
 Admin stuff
 About us
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis times
using agile type of methodologies
 A : Management approach
 B : A deep dive in agility type of methods
 C : How to practically handle such situations
 A Case study : Implementing Counter terrorism
security for a leading brand in the luxury Hotel
Industry
 Results - Wrap-up & Good-luck
April 17, 2010
7

8. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Risk Management SSoA: awareness changes perspectives
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9. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Set the stage and quickly agree upon a common language
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
E
Crisis management
Vulnerability
Anticipate Prevent Apply Restore
analysis
Manage the information
Event
Threats Measures Norms and Standards of
protocols engagement
Risk Management Contingency Planning Recovery
Management
Business continuity Planning
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10. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
A situation of disruption occurs when ...
for a given organizational system….
Period of high
vollatility A new
Equilibrium equilibrium
Correctives
E
measures
A particular event causes a disruption of
this balance which threatens the
sustainability of this system
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11. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
All these disruptive situations have a point in common …
China Pledges to Work With U.S. on Iran Sanctions Toyota suspends sales January 2010, recall list
Mumbai, Terrorists attacks
… initially no one anticipated the storm that followed.
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12. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Afterwards, most actors agree they were unable to grasp the
severity of the situation …
Symptoms
• No abrupt change but soft slips Crisis Managing the
High
Potential impact
Management unexpected
causing discomfort and doubts
• Lack of response and lack of
anticipation leading from the start to
to become chronic victims of events
• Lack of internal coordination and
Low
Operational Fault
consultation Management Management
• Chaotic and contraductory internal so
as external communication
Yes No
Anticipated event
…due to a slowly increasing
disturbing feeling invading and panicking them
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13. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The management of such a disruption is fundamentally different
if the triggering event could be anticipated in advance ...
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
E
Crisis management
Vulnerability
Anticipate Prevent Apply Restore
analysis
React Restore
Managing the unexpected
Event 13

14. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Our approach to managing the unexpected
Goal
Observing extreme
behaviors in
Crisis times Allowing in
uncertainty
s
Principle situations to,
• analyze
lo gy • structure
Méthodo • solve
a problem
using successive
iterations
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15. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Each corporation has developed different ways of managing a
crisis depending upon the environment they are confronted with
Emergency Department ** Military Forces **
3 minutes …
SStart SEnd t SStart SInt.1 SInt.2 SInt.n t
Information
quality • Precise, measured • Poor, estimated
Database • Exhaustive • Fragmentary
Results • Likelihood available • Expected
Time
management • Normed • Estimated
Standards code of conducts and Method of dynamic resolution
normed protocoles by successive iterations
** : no resistance to change
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16. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Understanding the quality of information available is key for the
manager to apply the proper behavior
Apply Crisis situation
React
ED Ma MiF
Quality of the information available
Precise, calibrated
ED
Mgr
Poor
MiF
Normed Estimated
Emergency Manager Military Forces
Department Time management in
emergency situations
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17. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The military-style approach (simplified)
Analyzing and Planning Iterations
Developing the
engagement plan
Shaping decision
Assessment of the situation
Draft backplanning
Triggering emergency
measures
Identification of the problem
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18. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The Cougars in a nutshell :
 Admin stuff
 Who we are and who you are ?
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis times
using agile type of methodologies
 A: Management approach
 B: A deep dive in agility type of methods
 C : How to practically handle such
situations
 A Case study : Implementing Counter terrorism
security for a leading brand in the luxury Hotel
Industry
 Results - Wrap-up & Good-luck
April 17, 2010
18

19. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Agility in a nutshell
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20. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Our approach combines the strengths of two frameworks using
cross functional teams to quickly generate an impact
Deep Dive Scrum
• A technique to rapidly immerse a team • An agile and lean methodology used for
into a situation for problem solving in : software development:
o Product development o Designed to adapt to changing
o Process improvement requirements during the development
process at short regular intervalles
o Customer service strategy
o Allows teams to priorize customers
requirements and adopt work produced
in real time to customer needs
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21. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Deep Dive: step by step http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M66ZU2PCIcM
Inspiration Ideation Implementation
Observe and inquire
Tell stories
Synthesize
Visualize Realize
Refine Evaluate
Execute
Spread
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22. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The Deep dive belongs to the Design Thinking framework
Abstract
Méthod.
Framework
Observations Principles Observations Time_
Problem Prototypes
Prototypes
Prototypes
Prototypes Solution
Observed
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23. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
But the IDEO Frameworks reaches some limits as soon as the
requirements need to be re-priorized permanently
Scrum
Scrum methodology
mainly used for software
development provides a
strong framework to
address this topic
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24. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Scrum in a nutshell http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vmGMpME_phg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5k7a9YEoUI
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25. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Selection of requirements is key
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26. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Une fois les besoins du client hiéarchisés, les deux acteurs
s’engagent
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27. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
An high level illustration of our Agile Development Methods
A dynamic approach under dynamic environmental monitoring
Observe and ask
Develop a Storyline
Priorize
Co-Create
Inspiration Ideation Implémentation
Deep Dive Scrum
27

28. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The Cougars in a nutshell :
 Admin stuff
 Who we are and who you are ?
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis times
using agile type of methodologies
 A: Management approach
 B: A deep dive in agility type of methods
 C : How to practically handle such situations
 A Case study : Implementing Counter
terrorism security for a leading brand in the
luxury Hotel Industry
 Results - Wrap-up & Good-luck
April 17, 2010
28

29. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
In practice, a situation of high volatility is resolved step by step
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
Project Management & Communication
Urgency measures
Process
Storyline
Implementation,
Agile controls and
Scoping Clarification Gain support
Prototyping adjustements
Planing
Decision Decision Decision Decision Decision
Tool-Box
Change
management &
Implementation
29

30. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The Basic Model : Analysis – Concept - Outputs
Méta-Modèle
The goal here is clearly
• to understand the market /
client / technology and
constraints (internal &
external SWOT analysis,
Analysis
Concept
Outputs PESTLE analysis and
Primo-F analysis and gather
facts
• Draft a first logical structure
• Sketch first desired outputs
30

31. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The Cougars in a nutshell :
 Admin stuffs
 Who we are and who you are ?
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis times
using agile type of methodologies
 A Case study : Implementing Counter
terrorism security for a leading brand in the
luxury Hotel Industry
 Part A : Diagnosis, Scoping and Clarification
 Part B : Prototyping and implementation
 Results - Wrap-up & Good-luck
April 17, 2010
31

32. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Engagement Teams
Team 1 :
Team 2 :
Team 3 :
Team 4 :
32

33. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Case Study Part A : team requirement
Within your attributed teams, using the module toolbox so as the concepts
and methodologies presented today morning, analyze thoroughly the
information provided for Part A.
Expected Output from each group:
a max 10 minutes bullet point team presentation in powerpoint presenting
 Risk inventory (refer to Prof Fragniere handouts pp. 11, 12,13,16) and
 Risk mapping (refer to Prof Fragniere handouts p. 30)
Time at your disposal for preparation: from 13 : 00 to 13 : 50
Good luck !
33

34. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The Cougars in a nutshell :
 Admin stuffs
 About us
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis times
using agile type of methodologies
 A Case study : Implementing Counter
terrorism security for a leading brand in the
luxury Hotel Industry
 Part A : Diagnosis, Scoping and Clarification
 Part B : Prototyping & implementation
 Wrap-up
April 17, 2010
34

35. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Case Study Part B : team requirement
Within the attributed team, using the module toolbox so as the concepts and
methodologies presented today morning, analyze thoroughly the information
provided for Part A so as the additional information provided for Part B.
Output expected from each team :
A 5 minutes bullet point presentation presenting
 Which strategy to mitigate which risks ? ( consider pp 42, 90, 91, 92, 139) ?
 How would you manage the perceived risks ?
 Briefly : How would you envision prototyping such a dilemma under a time
constraint of 4 months ? How would you implement your solution and by
when?
Time at your disposal for preparation: from 14 : 30 to 15 : 20
Good luck !
35

36. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The Cougars in a nutshell :
 Admin stuffs
 About us
 Managing disruptive situations in crisis
times using agile type of methodologies
 A Case study : Implementing Counter
terrorism security for a leading brand in the
luxury Hotel Industry
 Wrap-up
April 17, 2010
36

37. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Gérer de telles situations de rupture nécessite :
• Le projet doit disposer des appuis au bon niveau organisationnel
Légitimité
(idéalement Conseil d’administration ou Direction générale)
• Etre convaincu qu’il est meilleur de se tromper tôt et souvent au
Méthodologie lieu d’une fois mais trop tard
de « type » agile • Permet de revisiter en permanence le processus de décision en
fonction des modifications de l’environnement
Expertise
• Understanding the complexity of the problem
Expérience • Being at ease to make difficult decisions
Préalable
• Know the "standard silencer
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38. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Managing such disruptive situations requires :
• The project sponsor should be positioned at an organizational
Legitimacy
level, which enables carrying the required decisions (ideally Board
level or Senior Executive level)
• A customer based approach for product development based on the
fact that the external conditions (customer and marketing) will
Agile continually change.
Methodology
• The purpose is to increase efficiency in the cooperation between
the internal and external partners
Expertise
Previous • Understanding the complexity of the problem
exposure • Being at ease to make difficult decisions
• Being aware of some “silent standards”
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39. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
The issue to be managed within a firm following a situation of
break-up is truly multi-dimensional
Emotions Resistance Surprise Stress
Indivividuals
Understanding the
Resistance to change
stages of grief
Groupes
Storylining to develop
Clash of several different perspectives
a shared vision
Envision a solution the
Firm
Lack or reference framework and boundaries
way to get there
Managerial Change « Agile » Rétroactive
psychology management Méthodology planning
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40. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
Les « standards silencieux » sont diamétralement opposés
si le système est en rupture ou à l’équilibre
En situation d’équilibre En situation de rupture
• Les erreurs sont punies • Les erreurs font partie du
• Les échecs ne sont pas tolérés processus d’apprentissage
• Les échecs nourissent le succès
• A toute question posée, il existe • Il n’existe pas de réponse correcte
une réponse correcte qu’il convient • Il faut poser les bonnes questions
de trouver (et sans tabou) pour trouver la
meilleure réponse
• Faire preuve d’une opinion • Avoir l’arrogance d’exposer une
consensuelle opinion dérangeante
40

41. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
In practice, a situation of high volatility is resolved step by step
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5
Project Management & Communication
Urgency measures
Process
Storyline
Implementation,
Agile controls and
Scoping Clarification Gain support
Prototyping adjustements
Planing
Decision Decision Decision Decision Decision
Tool-Box
Change
management &
Implementation
41

42. Bath University – School of Management – EMBA Class of 2010 & Risk Management Option 2010.04.17
42