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Saving The Internet of Things: Presentation to Facebook

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The internet of things has some big problems: most of the "things" in it are useless and the ones that are valuable: bad security and high costs.

This presentation outlines how IBM has been thinking about the future of the Internet of Things and what's needed to create sustainable value without compromising security and privacy.

We believe that solution should include a big investment in Block Chain technology, the foundation that underpins bitcoin as well as a big focus on making every connected device part of the Economy of Things.

Publié dans : Internet, Technologie
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Saving The Internet of Things: Presentation to Facebook

  1. 1. © 2015 IBM Corporation Institute for Business Value Facebook, 12 January 2015 Device Democracy: 
 Saving The Internet of Things
  2. 2. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Agenda 2 The Internet of Things Really Small Enormous Problem Fixing The Value Proposition Evolution & Revolution Fixing The Technology From Here To There
  3. 3. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 3 You  can  see  the  computer  age   everywhere  but  in  the  productivity   statistics. Robert  Solow,  1987
  4. 4. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Computers spread through enterprises throughout the 1970s and 1980s even as growth stalled 4 0 5,625 11,250 16,875 22,500 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 IBM PC Apple II Macintosh Amiga Atari 400/800 Atari ST C 64 TRS-80 NeXT PET Other PC  Platform  Volumes,  1980-­‐1990   jeremyreimer.com 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% 1970s 1980s 1990s GPD  Per  Capita    Growth,  G7   OECD
  5. 5. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 IBM PC Apple II Macintosh All Others Though personal computers seemed to be everywhere, the reality is that we had only just started to really consume computing power 5 PC  Platform   Volumes,   1975-­‐2010   jeremyreimer.com PC  “Wins”
  6. 6. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage In the PC industry, the market development era had to be completed before we could see the value of scale and productivity 6 Perfect  The  Product Build  The  Ecosystem Establish  Control  Points Market  Development  Era IBM  PC  5150 Cut  Costs  &  Grow  Scale Focus  on  Value  Creation Refine  User  Experience Scale  &  Productivity  Era Dell  scaled  up  PC   business  with  Build   To  Order
  7. 7. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The mobile industry today is where the PC industry was in 1990: just out of the first battles for market-share and into the period of scaling up 7 0 150 300 450 600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Symbian WinMobile PalmOS Blackberry Android iPhone Linux Others Smartphone  Platform   Market  Share  &   Shipments,  2000-­‐2012   jeremyreimer.com
  8. 8. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Though the volumes may seem large, only about 20% of the world population have mobile phones or are connected through social networks. We’re just getting started. 8 Perfect  The  Product Build  The  Ecosystem Establish  Control  Points Market  Development  Era The  T-­‐Mobile  G1:   First  Android  Phone Cut  Costs  &  Grow  Scale Focus  on  Value  Creation Refine  User  Experience Scale  &  Productivity  Era The  Smartisan  T1   Android  Phone
  9. 9. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage When it comes to the internet of things, we’re still in the market development era - defining platforms and value propositions before we achieve real scale 9 Smart  Cities Smart  Infrastructure Connected  Home Medical  Wearables Smart  Watches
  10. 10. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The Internet Of Things Is going to be about much more than volume, however. Tomorrow’s embedded devices are going to be radically smarter as well. 10 Full ARM SoC as powerful as many cell phones with 2GB of RAM. Boots when connected. Runs Mac OS Core (XNU) Receives MPEG stream and converts it to HDMI output. The  Apple  Lightning  to  HDMI  Connector Source:  ExtremeTech.com  report  on  Apple  lightning  HDMI  connector  cable,  retrieved  March  2013
  11. 11. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Billions and billions of devices. Every one of them as smart as the original iPhone. All of them as smart as an enterprise class server in the early 1990s. 11 Billions  of  Devices Millions  of  Locations Terabytes  of  storage  &  bandwidth The  cloud  is  moving  out  of  your  data   center  and  into  your  doorknob. Image  Flickr  Creative  Commons  License
  12. 12. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Agenda 12 The Internet of Things Really Small Enormous Problem Fixing The Value Proposition The Evolution & Revolution Fixing The Technology From Here To There
  13. 13. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 13 If  it  ain’t  broke,  don’t  fix  it. Bert  Lance,  1977
  14. 14. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The Internet of Things has a big problem: with a few notable exceptions, it lacks a compelling value proposition 14 No  Apps No  Subscription No  Problem
  15. 15. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage In fact, beyond extremely high value, integrated systems, adoption of connected, intelligent devices is stalled right now 15 Connectable vs. Connected Data vs. Insight Products vs. Solutions 30% 40% 30% Other Connectable Connected 100% Predictive Reactive 5% 15% 80% Products Services SoluVons Deployment of heavy industrial systems that are networked: Source: IBM Research, Client data, 2012
  16. 16. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The unique properties for markets in information mean that expectations for analytics revenue are often far too optimistic 16 If there is more than one source: And the cost to make copies is: BUT $0 SO Supply is: And the market price heads to: $0 Lots of Data Is Useful & Valuable YES Where can I find a parking spot?
  17. 17. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The Internet of Things has a couple of other problems as well 17 TWO “OTHER” PROBLEMS COST SECURITY
  18. 18. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 18 TWO “OTHER” PROBLEMS COST SECURITY
  19. 19. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 19 TWO “OTHER” PROBLEMS COST SECURITY MORE DEVICES multiplied by GREATER LONGEVITY
  20. 20. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 20 TWO “OTHER” PROBLEMS COST SECURITY 0 30 60 90 120 Subway House Jet Car Laptop Phone
  21. 21. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 21 TWO “OTHER” PROBLEMS COST SECURITY
  22. 22. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Agenda 22 The Internet of Things Really Small Enormous Problem Fixing The Value Proposition The Evolution & Revolution Fixing The Technology From Here To There
  23. 23. WHAT IF WE STARTED WITH A CLEAN SHEET OF PAPER?
  24. 24. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 24 BETTER PRODUCTS .01FUNCTIONMAKE COOL STUFF
  25. 25. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 25 BETTER PRODUCTS .01FUNCTIONMAKE COOL STUFF CREATE DIGITAL MARKETS CREATE NEW VALUE .02 BUSINESS MODEL PLAY WELL WITH OTHERS
  26. 26. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 26 BETTER PRODUCTS CREATE NEW VALUE .01FUNCTION .02 BUSINESS MODEL MAKE COOL STUFF PLAY WELL WITH OTHERS CREATE DIGITAL MARKETS .03TECHNOLOGYSTAND UP TO BULLIES DECENTRALIZEDRESILIANT EFFICIENT
  27. 27. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 27 WHAT IS NEEDED TO GROW FROM 10 BILLION TO 100 BILLION? HOW DO WE ADDRESS SCALE & SECURITY ISSUES?
  28. 28. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 28 BLOCK CHAIN + BITTORRENT TELEHASH +
  29. 29. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The Block Chain foundation comes from BitCoin, a wholly decentralized banking system 29 Traditional banks are built on private, centralized systems: There is one central ledger for accounts, identities, and transactions. Account owners Bank balances Transaction records New Transactions In Bitcoin, the central functions are distributed to all the participants in the system: Thanks to cheap computing power and clever process design, BitCoin enables truly distributed transaction processing. Every user has access to their own copy of the entire transaction ledger in a long file called the BLOCK CHAIN:
  30. 30. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The Block Chain enables something crucial: computing after trust 30 Transactions are confirmed by CONSENSUS Multiple ecosystem participants check on each transaction to provide REDUNDANT VERIFICATION No single point of failure No need to trust all the participants
  31. 31. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Extract the financial component from BitCoin and you have a generic transaction processing system that is programmable 31 Take Bitcoin and remove the financial component You a have powerful distributed transaction processing system Account owners Bank balances Transaction records Any transaction- intensive processing activity Transaction processing engines are the foundation of many key technology systems: Travel Reservations Billing Systems Health Records Social Media Device Data Documents Both old… And new…
  32. 32. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Efficient 32 Server-less architecture means far lower centralized costs for management & administration: Our current estimate on the cost manage millions of devices for enterprises. -99%
  33. 33. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Secure 33 Transparent, open-source nature of BitCoin platform creates security through transparency. This reverses the traditional online approach to security and enables trust through verification.
  34. 34. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Enduring 34 0 1,000,000,000 2,000,000,000 3,000,000,000 4,000,000,000 BitCoin NYSE Twitter Facebook Transactions Per Day Various Online Services Standard Scale As of April 2014 1 100 10,000 1,000,000 100,000,000 10,000,000,000 BitCoin NYSE Twitter Facebook Transactions Per Day Various Online Services Log Scale As of April 2014 0 22,500 45,000 67,500 90,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 BitCoin Transactions Per Day Overall Growth Trend Standard Scale As of April 2014
  35. 35. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 35 BitCoin technology, on everything, everywhere
  36. 36. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage We can put the Block Chain on smaller and smaller devices 36
  37. 37. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage At CES, IBM and Samsung showed off our joint Block-Chain based proof of concept 37 2 Block-Chain Demos: Advertising marketplace for Large Format Displays Washing machine that orders spares & service and manages power consumption.
  38. 38. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Agenda 38 The Internet of Things Really Small Enormous Problem Fixing The Value Proposition The Evolution & Revolution Fixing The Technology From Here To There
  39. 39. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 39 The  future  is  already  here.    It’s  just   not  very  evenly  distributed. William  Gibson
  40. 40. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage When it comes to the business model for the internet of things, we believe there are two key opportunities 40 BETTER PRODUCTS FUNCTIONMAKE COOL STUFF .03TECHNOLOGYSTAND UP TO BULLIES DECENTRALIZEDRESILIENT EFFICIENT CREATE DIGITAL MARKETS CREATE NEW VALUE .02 BUSINESS MODEL PLAY WELL WITH OTHERS
  41. 41. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage The internet turned digital products into liquid digital assets 41 DISCOVER USE PAY Online  Payment  icon  (cc)  by  Slawek  Jurczyk  from  the  Noun  Project
  42. 42. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage We believe that Internet of Things will do the same for the physical world 42 DISCOVER USE PAY
  43. 43. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Lots of vendors are already out there enabling these tecnologies 43 DISCOVER USE PAY
  44. 44. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Companies like Uber are already transforming the Taxi business 44 Drivers  and  customers  can  both   see  the  marketplace: Analytics  tells  drivers   where    to  find  customers: UBER  (and  similar  services)  are  using   data  to  bring  LIQUIDITY  to  markets:
  45. 45. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Uber and related services do much more than just labor & regulatory arbitrage 45 Sources:  Uber,  New  York  Taxi  &  Limousine  Commission,  Boston  Taxi  Commission,  UBER  fares  based  on  UberX Today,  average  Taxi  utilization   is  relatively  low: 55% UBER  fares  are  lower  than   regular  taxi  prices -­‐18% …but  Uber  drives  report  higher   incomes: +22%
  46. 46. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage If it’s driven by an asset that can be tagged, managed and shared, then a service is being built around it: 46 The  number  of  new  digital  online  services  that  do  this  is   growing  enormously: UBER  (and  similar  services)  are  using   data  to  bring  LIQUIDITY  to  markets: Just  550  Employees   Estimated  $1bn  in  revenue   $10bn  Valuation
  47. 47. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 47 OptimizationInstrumentation Monetization
  48. 48. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 48 IBM invented the computer reservation system for American Airlines The world’s first physical marketplace digitized: • Eventually, every flight on every route was available as a digital asset to be bought and sold online • Airlines could monitor their business in real time and apply optimization tools to inventory, pricing & routing
  49. 49. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 49 Average US Airfares, Adjusted for Inflation
 1979-2013 AverageAirfare,inConstant2000Dollars 0 125 250 375 500 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
  50. 50. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 50 Total US Airline Industry Revenue, 1995-2013, US$ Billions Revenue,US$Billions 0 40 80 120 160 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Network Carriers Low Cost Carriers
  51. 51. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 51 US Airline Industry Profits, US$ Billions, 2000-2013 Revenue,US$Billions -$30 -$23 -$15 -$8 $0 $8 $15 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sum
 of all profit
 since 2000: -$44 Billion
  52. 52. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Even as the airlines were going bankrupt left and right, the most powerful players in the travel market were the airline reservation systems (sound familiar?) American spun-off SABRE in 1999. SABRE had an initial market capitalization of $6billion. AA was only worth $3.8 billion in 2002 52
  53. 53. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Agenda 53 The Internet of Things Really Small Enormous Problem Fixing The Value Proposition The Evolution & Revolution Fixing The Technology From Here To There
  54. 54. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Five lessons we could learn from the Internet of Things so far 54 1. Just because you can connect it, doesn’t mean you should. 2. Current IoT architectures are mismatched to technology. 3. We cannot restore trust to computing. 4. Forget fitness trackers, we’re headed for the Economy of Things. 5. Where Facebook users go, enterprises follow.
  55. 55. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 55 DO WE REALLY NEED A SMARTER TOASTER?
  56. 56. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage 56
  57. 57. © 2015 IBM CorporationPage Read all about it. 57 ibm.biz/DeviceDemocracy Device Democracy: 
 Saving The Internet of Things IoT Block Chain Technical White Paper (Draft Version) ibm.biz/BdEAyL Device Democracy: The Economy of Things Coming in March 2015
  58. 58. © 2015 IBM Corportation Facebook facebook.com/pbrody Linked In linkedin.com/in/pbrody Sina Weibo @pbrody

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