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Land Concept and Capability Development “ Army of Tomorrow” & Future Army 2040” Presentation to Soldier Systems TRM Visioning & Requirements Workshop 16 June 2009 Lieutenant Colonel Ron Bell Directorate of Land Concepts and Designs Soldier Systems TRM Visioning Workshop
Aim ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Land Capability Development
Land Staff Lines of Operation Capability Development Training and Professional Development Force Management Chief of the Land Staff LGen Andrew Leslie Assistant Chief of the Land Staff MGen Guy Thibault Chief of Staff Land Strategy BGen Alain Tremblay Army Training Authority MGen Marquis Hainse (Comd LFDTS) Chief of Staff Land Operations BGen Ian Poulter RGp Army Council Army Capability Development Board Army Research Board Army Training Council Army Training and Professional Development Board Army Management Board Army Program Board Chairmanship for each governance body representing the three lines of operation is established.  However, due to their distinctive terms of reference , these bodies do not automatically report to the CLS through the APB.  In fact, it is common practice that they report directly and independently to the RGp, ASPT or the AC as determined by the specific items under consideration.  As each chairman is also a member of the APB, RGp, ASPT and AC, this is not considered to be a dysfunctional practice.  Army Strategic Planning Team
COS Land Strategy – Mission ,[object Object],Manage Conceive Design Build
The Evolving Army Capability Time +4 +10 years +25 years Conceive the Army of the Future Inform FSE Objective BUILD Tomorrow Today Future Develop Towards Future Capabilities Capability Objective
Trends in the Future Security Environment (FSE)   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Diverse Environment
Diverse Threat
Diverse Tasks
Canada First
The Continuum of Operations Peacetime Military Engagement Major Combat Peace Support Counter-insurgency Stability Operations Defensive Operations Offensive Operations EFFORTS AND RESOURCES WILL EBB AND FLOW ACROSS THE  TACTICAL LEVEL OPERATIONS AND VARY WITH THE CAMPAIGN THEME OPERATIONAL LEVEL CAMPAIGN THEMES TACTICAL  LEVEL ACTIVITIES “ Full-spectrum operations”
Operational Functions CSASS Command  The operational function that integrates all the operational functions into a single comprehensive strategic, operational or tactical level concept.   Sense  The operational function that provides the commander with knowledge.    Act  The operational function that integrates manoeuvre, firepower and offensive information operations to achieve the desired effects.     Shield  The operational function that provides for the protection of a force's survivability and freedom of action.    Sustain  The operational function that integrates strategic, operational and tactical levels of support to generate and maintain force capability.
Capability Development PRICIE Consideration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Campaign Horizons / Planning Methodology Sustain Act Command Sense Shield Generate Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Enhanced Joint 2013 Fully Integrated 2028 Fully Joint  2018 2016 Army of Today Army of Tomorrow Future Army 2009 2021 2040 Land Ops 2021 Land Ops 2040 Land Concepts The Army Strategy 2011 Focus of the Land Capability  Development Plan Land Capabilities
Land Operations 2021 Adaptive Dispersed Operations The Force Employment Concept for Canada’s Army of Tomorrow
The Evolution of ADO The Future Security Environment 2007-2030 Part One 8 November 2007 - DRAFT
The Nature of Conflict in the FSE Conflict results from a complex interaction of beliefs, actions and structures in periods of political, economic, and social instability.  Resolution of this type of conflict requires an integrated, multi-dimensional approach that addresses actions, structures, and beliefs throughout the moral, physical and informational spheres.   Competing Beliefs Unacceptable Structures Moral Physical Informational ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Catalytic Actions
Command Fusion & KM Human Dimension JIMP The Network Omni-Dimensional Shield Focused Logistics Joint Fires Support Integrated Effects The Soldier   Agility Sustainment Network  Enabled Adaptive Dispersed Operations Full Spectrum Engagement Distributed Autonomous Systems The AoT Battle Group Adaptive, networked, and integrated forces alternatively dispersing and aggregating throughout the multi-dimensional battlespace in order to find, fix, and strike full spectrum threats to security and stability Functional Concepts Operating Concept Enabling Concepts Manoeuvre Warfare Theory Effects Based Thinking positional, psychological, temporal synergistic creation of effects
2.  Network in Place & Operating 1.  The AoT BG Arrives in AO 3.  Manned/Unmanned Sensors Operating 4.  JFS in Place & Operating 5.  Coys Disperse as Reqr 6.  Pls Disperse as Reqr 7.  Sects Disperse as Reqr 8.  Teams Disperse as Reqr 9.  Sensors/teams ID & Locate Threats 10.  Teams/JFS Conduct Full Spectrum Engagements 11.  Teams/Sects, Pls, Coys Aggregate as Reqr ADAPTIVE DISPERSED OPERATIONS Moral Physical Informational
Land Operations 2021 – ADO ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Designing The Army of Tomorrow SYSTEMS STRUCTURES CONCEPTS - Formation 2021 - (Optimized) Battle  Group 2021 - Human Dimension - The Comprehensive Approach   - Family of Land  Combat Systems Land Ops  2021: ADO
Peace Support Major Combat The Operational Level Campaign Themes Peacetime Military  Engagement Adaptable Flexible Medium Weight Domestic Range COIN =  combat  operations Off Def Land Forces Linking Structure to Task A medium weight, high tech force balanced for counter-insurgency (COIN)-like scenarios in failed and failing states operating within a Joint / Interagency / Multinational / Public environment, and capable of operating across the spectrum of conflict.  Off Def Stability Off Def Stability Off Def Stability
Formation 2021  and  Battle Group 2021   NCE What are the essential capabilities?   What is the optimal division of responsibilities? What are the structures and and capabilities required to command & control, synchronize and resource the war winning and battle winning efforts in 2021?   NSE MP CSS EW Coordination of national and multinational logistics, medical services and MPs  National and multinational units / BGs   Coord of  national and multinational Arty & Engrs  Multinational command with complexities such as Int sharing and national ROE  Inter-operability of communications systems Capacity building capabilities in conjunction with our partners (OMLT, PRT/CMTT, SAT, Police Trg)  Balancing “Fires” and “Influence Activities” (Information Operations)
Institutionalizing a Comprehensive Approach to Operations through study of the Joint Interagency Multinational Public (JIMP) Environment
Family of Land Combat Systems (FLCS) The AoT Family of Land Combat Systems (FLCS) Note:  Some Land Force equipment or capability might not be captured by this model. Future Combat Vehicle Systems (FCVS) Future Direct Fire Capability (FDFC) Future Soldier System (FSS) Autonomous Systems (AS) Future Aviation Systems (FAS) Future Network Capability (FNC) Future Service Support System (FSSS) Future Indirect Fire Capability (FIFC) Projects that are within the CFDS/FLCS envelope LWTH funding already earmarked CCV LRPRS TAPV LAV III UG TLAV UG GBAMD LVMP
Future Network Capability Moral Physical Informational SENSOR MIX STUDY
The Human Dimension – Toward 2021 Who do  we need? Who will  we get? And how do we keep them? Attributes &  Competencies Ethics & Professionalism Morale, Cohesion & Trust Decision Making Stress & Resilience Culture
Army of Tomorrow Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Partner Group 2 Thrust Advisory Groups (TAGs) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Arctic Study
Future Army 2040 FUTURE ARMY 2040 FIRST LOOK
Evolution of FA 2040 The Future Security Environment 2007-2030 Part One 8 November 2007 - DRAFT FUTURE ARMY 2040 FIRST LOOK
The way we see it… Land Forces Context The future is not something that just happens ...  it is something we do, by the choices we make or avoid.   Physical  Environment Science Technology Economic Social Military Legal Political
Futures Wheel End Product FA 2040 Economic Legal Science and Technology Molecular Manufacturing Human  Rights Social Human  Enhancement Political Environment Military Increase have have not's  Increase rate of production Shorter Eqpt Lifecycle ? ? ? Small Tech
Futures Wheel End Product
Key Drivers of Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Impact-Uncertainty Classification Impact Uncertainty 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Environment Energy Low Moderate High Low Mod High
Key Drivers of Change and Polarities ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Alternate Future Space (Energy & Environment) Energy Environment / Climate Sustainable – Supply exceeds demand Unsustainable – Demand exceeds supply Crisis Reaction Proactive Action
Alternate Future Space (Power Balance & Exponential Tech Growth) Exponential technology growth Shifting power balance Set the pace Fall behind Competitive – more friction Cooperative – less friction
Next Steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
We do  not know  what will happen in the future. Capability development is, therefore, about trying to hit the  centre of mass  of the  most likely future target  while, above all, maintaining: FLEXIBILITY  within our force; the necessary  ADAPTABILITY  to  modify our force; and the institutional  AGILITY  to quickly  change our force.
Questions/Discussion ,[object Object],[object Object]

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SSTRM - StrategicReviewGroup.ca - Visioning and Future Capabilities Workshop

  • 1. Land Concept and Capability Development “ Army of Tomorrow” & Future Army 2040” Presentation to Soldier Systems TRM Visioning & Requirements Workshop 16 June 2009 Lieutenant Colonel Ron Bell Directorate of Land Concepts and Designs Soldier Systems TRM Visioning Workshop
  • 2.
  • 4. Land Staff Lines of Operation Capability Development Training and Professional Development Force Management Chief of the Land Staff LGen Andrew Leslie Assistant Chief of the Land Staff MGen Guy Thibault Chief of Staff Land Strategy BGen Alain Tremblay Army Training Authority MGen Marquis Hainse (Comd LFDTS) Chief of Staff Land Operations BGen Ian Poulter RGp Army Council Army Capability Development Board Army Research Board Army Training Council Army Training and Professional Development Board Army Management Board Army Program Board Chairmanship for each governance body representing the three lines of operation is established. However, due to their distinctive terms of reference , these bodies do not automatically report to the CLS through the APB. In fact, it is common practice that they report directly and independently to the RGp, ASPT or the AC as determined by the specific items under consideration. As each chairman is also a member of the APB, RGp, ASPT and AC, this is not considered to be a dysfunctional practice. Army Strategic Planning Team
  • 5.
  • 6. The Evolving Army Capability Time +4 +10 years +25 years Conceive the Army of the Future Inform FSE Objective BUILD Tomorrow Today Future Develop Towards Future Capabilities Capability Objective
  • 7.
  • 12. The Continuum of Operations Peacetime Military Engagement Major Combat Peace Support Counter-insurgency Stability Operations Defensive Operations Offensive Operations EFFORTS AND RESOURCES WILL EBB AND FLOW ACROSS THE TACTICAL LEVEL OPERATIONS AND VARY WITH THE CAMPAIGN THEME OPERATIONAL LEVEL CAMPAIGN THEMES TACTICAL LEVEL ACTIVITIES “ Full-spectrum operations”
  • 13. Operational Functions CSASS Command The operational function that integrates all the operational functions into a single comprehensive strategic, operational or tactical level concept.   Sense The operational function that provides the commander with knowledge.   Act The operational function that integrates manoeuvre, firepower and offensive information operations to achieve the desired effects.   Shield The operational function that provides for the protection of a force's survivability and freedom of action.   Sustain The operational function that integrates strategic, operational and tactical levels of support to generate and maintain force capability.
  • 14.
  • 15. Campaign Horizons / Planning Methodology Sustain Act Command Sense Shield Generate Horizon 1 Horizon 2 Horizon 3 Enhanced Joint 2013 Fully Integrated 2028 Fully Joint 2018 2016 Army of Today Army of Tomorrow Future Army 2009 2021 2040 Land Ops 2021 Land Ops 2040 Land Concepts The Army Strategy 2011 Focus of the Land Capability Development Plan Land Capabilities
  • 16. Land Operations 2021 Adaptive Dispersed Operations The Force Employment Concept for Canada’s Army of Tomorrow
  • 17. The Evolution of ADO The Future Security Environment 2007-2030 Part One 8 November 2007 - DRAFT
  • 18.
  • 19. Command Fusion & KM Human Dimension JIMP The Network Omni-Dimensional Shield Focused Logistics Joint Fires Support Integrated Effects The Soldier Agility Sustainment Network Enabled Adaptive Dispersed Operations Full Spectrum Engagement Distributed Autonomous Systems The AoT Battle Group Adaptive, networked, and integrated forces alternatively dispersing and aggregating throughout the multi-dimensional battlespace in order to find, fix, and strike full spectrum threats to security and stability Functional Concepts Operating Concept Enabling Concepts Manoeuvre Warfare Theory Effects Based Thinking positional, psychological, temporal synergistic creation of effects
  • 20. 2. Network in Place & Operating 1. The AoT BG Arrives in AO 3. Manned/Unmanned Sensors Operating 4. JFS in Place & Operating 5. Coys Disperse as Reqr 6. Pls Disperse as Reqr 7. Sects Disperse as Reqr 8. Teams Disperse as Reqr 9. Sensors/teams ID & Locate Threats 10. Teams/JFS Conduct Full Spectrum Engagements 11. Teams/Sects, Pls, Coys Aggregate as Reqr ADAPTIVE DISPERSED OPERATIONS Moral Physical Informational
  • 21.
  • 22. Designing The Army of Tomorrow SYSTEMS STRUCTURES CONCEPTS - Formation 2021 - (Optimized) Battle Group 2021 - Human Dimension - The Comprehensive Approach - Family of Land Combat Systems Land Ops 2021: ADO
  • 23. Peace Support Major Combat The Operational Level Campaign Themes Peacetime Military Engagement Adaptable Flexible Medium Weight Domestic Range COIN = combat operations Off Def Land Forces Linking Structure to Task A medium weight, high tech force balanced for counter-insurgency (COIN)-like scenarios in failed and failing states operating within a Joint / Interagency / Multinational / Public environment, and capable of operating across the spectrum of conflict. Off Def Stability Off Def Stability Off Def Stability
  • 24. Formation 2021 and Battle Group 2021 NCE What are the essential capabilities? What is the optimal division of responsibilities? What are the structures and and capabilities required to command & control, synchronize and resource the war winning and battle winning efforts in 2021? NSE MP CSS EW Coordination of national and multinational logistics, medical services and MPs National and multinational units / BGs Coord of national and multinational Arty & Engrs Multinational command with complexities such as Int sharing and national ROE Inter-operability of communications systems Capacity building capabilities in conjunction with our partners (OMLT, PRT/CMTT, SAT, Police Trg) Balancing “Fires” and “Influence Activities” (Information Operations)
  • 25. Institutionalizing a Comprehensive Approach to Operations through study of the Joint Interagency Multinational Public (JIMP) Environment
  • 26. Family of Land Combat Systems (FLCS) The AoT Family of Land Combat Systems (FLCS) Note: Some Land Force equipment or capability might not be captured by this model. Future Combat Vehicle Systems (FCVS) Future Direct Fire Capability (FDFC) Future Soldier System (FSS) Autonomous Systems (AS) Future Aviation Systems (FAS) Future Network Capability (FNC) Future Service Support System (FSSS) Future Indirect Fire Capability (FIFC) Projects that are within the CFDS/FLCS envelope LWTH funding already earmarked CCV LRPRS TAPV LAV III UG TLAV UG GBAMD LVMP
  • 27. Future Network Capability Moral Physical Informational SENSOR MIX STUDY
  • 28. The Human Dimension – Toward 2021 Who do we need? Who will we get? And how do we keep them? Attributes & Competencies Ethics & Professionalism Morale, Cohesion & Trust Decision Making Stress & Resilience Culture
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 32. Future Army 2040 FUTURE ARMY 2040 FIRST LOOK
  • 33. Evolution of FA 2040 The Future Security Environment 2007-2030 Part One 8 November 2007 - DRAFT FUTURE ARMY 2040 FIRST LOOK
  • 34. The way we see it… Land Forces Context The future is not something that just happens ... it is something we do, by the choices we make or avoid. Physical Environment Science Technology Economic Social Military Legal Political
  • 35. Futures Wheel End Product FA 2040 Economic Legal Science and Technology Molecular Manufacturing Human Rights Social Human Enhancement Political Environment Military Increase have have not's Increase rate of production Shorter Eqpt Lifecycle ? ? ? Small Tech
  • 36. Futures Wheel End Product
  • 37.
  • 38. Impact-Uncertainty Classification Impact Uncertainty 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Environment Energy Low Moderate High Low Mod High
  • 39.
  • 40. Alternate Future Space (Energy & Environment) Energy Environment / Climate Sustainable – Supply exceeds demand Unsustainable – Demand exceeds supply Crisis Reaction Proactive Action
  • 41. Alternate Future Space (Power Balance & Exponential Tech Growth) Exponential technology growth Shifting power balance Set the pace Fall behind Competitive – more friction Cooperative – less friction
  • 42.
  • 43. We do not know what will happen in the future. Capability development is, therefore, about trying to hit the centre of mass of the most likely future target while, above all, maintaining: FLEXIBILITY within our force; the necessary ADAPTABILITY to modify our force; and the institutional AGILITY to quickly change our force.
  • 44.

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. The Canadian Army uses a three Army Model to conduct Force Development; Army of Today, Army of Tomorrow, and the Future Army. We look through the lens of the Future Security Environment (FSE) towards a Conceptual Future, in order to backcast and determine those capabilities which must be changed in order to advance to the Army of Tomorrow. FULLER VERSION of TEXT: The Canadian Army has embarked on a Transformation Agenda using a three Army Model. The Army of the Future, looking at the 2020 timeframe and beyond, the Army of Tomorrow, looking at the 2010 to 2020 timeframe and the interim army of Today, which is managed, trained and deployed within the current resources allocation. While the Army of the Future will only be conceptual in nature, it will serve as an aiming mark for force development focused through the Future Security Environment (FSE) Lens. As the Army transitions from one model to the next, we are looking at Science and Technology to provide an order of significant increase in capability. If the Army of Today can be characterized as a state-of-the-art medium weight force, well suited to our current operations, the Army of Tomorrow will be a fully digitized force, capable of fighting alongside our information age allies. As for the Army of the Future, as already mentioned, it will remain a conceptual force, used to identify capabilities and concepts for the battlefield of the future. Not shown in this slide however is the interim model. Realizing that transforming on the move is difficult, especially when there is no margin of maneuver, the Army will transition from the Army of Today to the Army of Tomorrow by going through an Interim Model. During this phase, underway now, some current Army capabilities are being sacrificed in order to create some flexibility in PYs and capital in order to invest in other areas that are essential to get from here to there. This will entail tasking some risks in some areas. Please note also that the Canadian Army has adopted the five operational functions of Command, Act, Sense, Shield and Sustain as a way of managing capability development and, more and more, a way of employing and describing the application of military force. It will continue to be the common language of the tactical level army into the Army of Tomorrow timeframe.
  2. In summary, we believe we have a pretty good idea of the environment which we will face in the future. However, this only serves to help understand the challenges we face within the capability development community. The Army has evolved a long ways already in meeting current challenges and in preparing to meet those of the future but as always we have a long way to go Additional Notes This slide in context with the CF’s “The Future Security Environment 2007-2030: Part1.” Overall – analysis of CF FSE demonstrates a strongly complements the DLCD Land Futures FSE work. In fact, assertions made generally mirror the FSE analysis the CF has advanced, as well as its deductions; although, implications drawn by DLCD quite naturally tend toward land concerns and generally reflect greater drill down in terms of deductions. In no case, however, do any of DLCD assertions contradict the analysis the CF has presented. If any addition to the slide is required based on the CF analysis, it would lie in the area of a steadily declining labor pool, and thus, the need to develop competitive recruitment strategies aimed at ensuring future CF manpower requirements (based on CF analysis of likely direction of future demographic change on the home front).
  3. Accordingly, in dealing with failed and failing states, this slide depicts the “typical” geography which CF elements have and will likely face in the future (mountain, jungle, URBAN, littoral, etc.).
  4. The threats we will face are equally diverse - while we may not encounter large collections of organized and well-equipped troops of a near-peer competitor, we will definitely face determined, intelligent, adaptable enemies with access to capable and often very modern or modernized equipment.
  5. In these diverse environments and faced with these diverse threats, Canadian soldiers must conduct a host of tasks, some of which are depicted here.
  6. We have now evolved with changing circumstance to see the complete spectrum as one entity and never more starkly than in current Counterinsurgency operations where the requirement to be prepared to conduct tasks across the Spectrum of Operations has never been more evident – and this is likely to reflect the nature of conflict for some time to come <BUILD #1> However I will state at this point that our focus is also on domestic requirements, however, despite their clear importance and impact on our structuring options, they tend not to drive much of the land equipment program because of the more permissive environment in which those tasks are conducted
  7. Not only must Canadian troops be able to conduct a host of tasks but they must also be prepared for conditions under which they execute those tasks to change dramatically. This slide depicts the ABCA and NATO Army’s Continuum of Operations which puts full-spectrum operations (a synonym for 3 Block War) in context. The Operational level Campaign Theme (along the bottom colored band) may vary by mission, and over time, but the requirement to conduct the full spectrum of tactical level operations does not change - only their relative focus changes. (Not shown are the Tactical Level Tasks referred to in line #1 above, but which are linked to the Tactical Level Operations)
  8. Sirs, a few final words are probably appropriate on the Operational Functions. Our experience using these DLSC developed functions has been magic. They break all the stove pipes yet seem to develop operational capability within a logical framework. As I said we will go to them this summer as people are posted in, DLSC is already there, the CFMA in Washington is doing it with his LOs, and we have spoken to DSAL (Craig Maskel) and others about the advantages of more organizations in the Army following suit. Indeed as Gen Hillier is aware the Special Working Party Program Review in ABCA (so-called SWP PR) has just had approved a system of interoperability capability development that will drop QWGs in favour of Capability Groups based on the five Canadian Operational Functions. This coup will see DAD Section Heads/Capability Managers doing almost exactly the same function in ABCA!
  9. The Army, especially DLSP, uses a CF wide analysis tool commonly known as PRICIE, which analyzes a capabilities requirements based on 6 factors: Personnel, Research and development, Infrastructure, Concepts and Doctrine, Information Technology, and Equipment. This is more familiar to our bureaucratic brethren in DND and other govt depts, and helps capture the true costs and resource requirements for a “capability”
  10. The Army capability development process follows the three model army concept originally put forward in The Army Strategy The Army of Today is always the Army in being The Army of Tomorrow is currently framed in the 2021 time period The Future Army is a less constrained conceptual model that serves only to inform our other developmental work and always remains 30 years hence Of key importance is our approach to progress from the Army of Today to the Army of Tomorrow. We have chosen to do this by setting out a number of “Builds” along the way. Due to its proximity Build #1 or 2011 is virtually locked in at this stage. Currently our main Design effort is 2016 where we are still in the stages of influence. The Build leading to 2021 is still in a study phase As such our 2021 vision will continue to mature over time and each successive Build will inform and be informed by the next. In essence, the Army will continue to evolve incrementally over time, rather than shooting for one distant transformational target Accordingly it behoves us to guard some resources that will allow us to maintain flexibility and freedom of action as we travel this path
  11. How did we get to LO 2021: Fse Workd with abca Future force Concept workshop Highly linked to ABCA US – JOINT URBAN WARRIOR/OMNI FUSION ETC In sync with FEC of allies – aussie/us/uk
  12. The key difference between conflict within the contemporary operating environment and that of the future is that potential adversaries will be even more adaptive than those of today and the threats they pose even more varied and lethal. Remaining in urban shadows, operating in dispersed and compartmented groups, sustaining and shielding themselves through the support, acquiescence, or intimidation of the local population, and carefully directing violence at civil and military targets, irregular adversaries will seek to gain strength and support while degrading support to their enemies. As urban areas continue to sprawl and become breeding grounds for discontent, asymmetric warriors will seek to control key urban terrain, or at least, prevent hostile security forces from doing so. In addition to this trend toward more adept and adaptable adversaries and more conflict occurring within complex urbanized environments, the nature of conflict itself will be much more complex. At the most basic level -- whatever the particular traits or causes -- future conflict will reflect a complex, three-dimensional web of Actions, Structures, and Beliefs in which each dimension shapes and is shaped by the other. Actions consist of those events, behaviors, and acts that characterize the nature of the conflict. They encompass the individual and group behaviors of all of those involved in the conflict; be they irregular combatants, security forces, aid workers, local and national leaders, or the population. The most obvious actions center on violence; which can run from acts of intimidation to terrorism to major combat actions. Actions may also consist of precipitous events that spark outbreaks of violence and retaliatory or repressive acts -- perhaps incited by asymmetric adversaries -- that stoke further violence. Because they can be planned, executed, seen, and measured, actions tend to overshadow the other dimensions of the conflict. However, while actions by themselves, represent the tactical aspects of the conflict, their strategic impact lies within the structures and beliefs that comprise the deeper roots of the conflict. Structures are the conditions that frame the conflict and terms such as stability, instability, infrastructure, economic development, and humanitarian assistance describe the structural elements of conflict in the future security environment. Irregular combatants will attempt to dismantle existing structures, exploit those that are seen as corrupt or repressive, and attempt to create new ones in their stead. The structural elements of conflict (political, economic, social, or security) form the essential physical and conditional battlespace over which future conflicts will be fought as well as the outcomes once the conflict has been concluded. Beliefs comprise those attitudes, perceptions, prejudices, ideologies, cultures, and social identities that fuel conflict and are the psychological imperatives that drive and are driven by actions and structures. Beliefs encompass more than just the conscious decision or willingness to side with one belligerent or the other, to support an insurgent group or the security forces. They represent the preconditions and mental filters that determine how individuals and groups perceive the actions and structures that surround them.
  13. Operating Concept: Adaptive Dispersed Operations . The deliberate use of dispersion and aggregation by adaptive forces in order to create and sustain significant tactical advantage. Functional Concepts: Networked Enabled Operations . Leveraging the military advantages that the effective integration of information systems (both technological and human) can produce through the creation and exploitation of information; Integrated Effects . The integrated application of multi-dimensional effects spanning the strategic to the tactical; Agility. The versatility, flexibility, and adaptability that permits the rapid projection of modular and mission-tailored forces capable of re-grouping and re-tasking across the full spectrum of conflict; Sustainment . A flexible and adaptive sustainment system capable of regrouping while sustainment activity is in progress with no break in battle rhythm; and The AoT Soldier . Soldiers and junior leaders empowered through training, technology, and a decentralized mission command leadership culture to make quick and bold battlefield decisions. Enabling Concepts: Omni-Dimensional Shield . Layered, integrated, and fully dimensional shield activities that seek to prevent any influence on friendly forces across the physical, information, and human planes that could adversely affect survivability or freedom of action; The Network . Situational understanding through a COP resulting in a networked, interdependent force capable of conducting simultaneous, self-synchronized operations in a non-contiguous environment; Fusion and Knowledge Management . The integrated, systematic approach to the fusion of information from myriad sources into knowledge, understanding, and effective support to decision-makers; JIMP . The ability to bring to bear all instruments of national and coalition power and influence (diplomatic, economic, military, informational) on a conflict in an integrated fashion in order to achieve effective results; Full Spectrum Engagement . Adaptable tactical forces dispersed -- in terms of time, space, and purpose -- across the entire battlespace in order to create and exploit opportunities, increase the tempo of operations, and overwhelm the enemy’s understanding of the battlespace; Distributed Autonomous Systems . Software and robotics based systems that will share the burden of data creation, collection, organization, distribution, analysis and management within the network infrastructure; Joint Fire Support . Networked land, air, and/or sea-based sensor, weapon, and command and control systems that combine to provide the dispersed force a mix of lethal and non-lethal area and precision options for engaging the enemy; The AoT Battlegroup . Permanently configured manoeuvre units that are operationally self-sufficient and capable of undertaking missions either independently or by integrating into a combined force package as a task-tailored component; Focussed Logistics . Distributed support and sustainment that maintains freedom of action and provides continuous support to dispersed forces with the optimal deployed logistical footprint: and Human Development . Moral codes, emerging concepts such as the empowered soldier, and the pragmatic application of military culture through recruiting, training, deployment, discipline, pay, and promotion polices and programs. The Adaptive Dispersed Operating Concept is grounded in Manoeuvre Warfare Theory and Effects Based Thinking in that it creates enhanced positional, psychological, and temporal advantages over the enemy vice attrition and employs a synergistic application of capabilities to produce cascading and cumulative effects to achieve a desired outcome.
  14. Adaptive Dispersed Operations . This slide illustrates ADO in its entirety in terms of space, time and purpose. This slide specifically draws attention to the spatial aspects of ADO towards achieving integrated effects within the Army and within the CF. Build 1 – The AoT TSSU in an AO Build 2 – The AoT network in place Build 3 – Manned/unmanned sensors provide operating picture Build 4 – JFS provides mutual support to AoT forces Build 5, 6, 7, 8 – AoT forces disperse into sub unit, platoon, section, and team size elements linked the network to provide situational awareness, commander’s intent, and JFS. Build 9 & 10 - Sensors and dispersed elements locate and engage targets Build 11 – Dispersed elements aggregate as required
  15. To focus Land transformation through high payoff force development activities — The Army of Tomorrow (AoT) Project — through a synchronized series of spiral builds. End state — a balanced medium weight high tech force optimized for counter-insurgency (COIN) , but effective across the spectrum of conflict. This slide depicts exactly where we are going Too much specialization or emphasis away from medium forces will unbalance this effort and likely result in an unaffordable / unsustainable force structure The key is therefore to target the most likely future scenario(s) while guarding flexibility and adaptability to meet the future as it actually unfolds
  16. Distinguish how JIMP fits within the strategic level Comprehensive Approach
  17. HD Themes/Lines of investigation : The six HD themes/lines of investigations are reflected on this slide and are the bases for the HD research. They are defined as follows: Soldier Attributes and Competencies : Traits characteristics Skills, Aptitudes and Abilities. Stuff that make soldiers successful to learn and apply their skills and knowledge on the job Professionalism and Ethics : Professionalism requires codes of conduct or ethics for their members and have disciplinary procedures for those who infringe the rules. Self-regulation: Professional bodies tend to insist that they should be self-regulating. Professions tend to be policed and regulated by senior, respected practitioners and the most highly qualified members of the profession. Ethics: Values and customs of a person or group. It covers the analysis and employment of concepts such as right and wrong, good and evil, and responsibility. Get soldiers to do the right thing. Culture : Patterns of human activity and the symbolic structures that give such activity significant importance. Focus is on norms and values. Morale, Cohesion and Trust : Morale: Troops state of mind, or how willing they are to push on in the face of the stresses and horrors of full spectrum operations. Cohesion: Degree to which the elements in the group are directed at a single purpose. Trust: Trust is the characteristic that one entity is willing to rely upon a second entity to execute a set of actions and/or to make a set of assertions about a set of subjects and/or scopes. Trust is the belief in the good character of one party, presumed to seek to fulfill policies, ethical codes, law and their previous promises Decision Making: The process of making an informed choice among the alternative actions that are possible. Compares data from different sources and past experience to draw conclusions and uses effective approaches for choosing and presenting a course of action or developing appropriate solutions. Stress, Strain and Resilience (including Human Enhancement) : Resilience is the ability to cope successfully in the face of significant adversity or risk. This capability develops and changes over time, is enhanced by protective factors, and contributes to the maintenance or enhancement of health. Psychological Resilience is the positive capacity of people to cope with stress and catastrophe. It is also used to indicate a characteristic of resistance to future negative events. In this sense "resilience" corresponds to cumulative "protective factors" and is used in opposition to cumulative "risk factors". The phrase "risk and resilience"' terms, which are essentially synonymous within psychology are "resilience", "psychological resilience", "emotional resilience", "hardiness", and "resourcefulness". Physical resilience is the body's physical ability to face a significant adversary or risk and bounce back or resist the cumulative effects. Enhancements Physical and psychological... refers to any attempt, whether temporary or permanent, to overcome the current limitations of the human body, whether through natural or artificial means to improve human performance. The term is sometimes applied to the use of technological means to select or alter human aptitudes and other phenotypical characteristics, whether or not the alteration results in characteristics that lie beyond the existing human range. Moreover, to reflect what is stated in AF Strategy by CAS, LGen Watts: "...personnel must be morally, physically, intellectually and spiritually prepared for combat operations. (Spirituality, in this context, includes both religious and secular beliefs, values and attitudes.)" p. 11 "Operational fitness needs to be considered in terms of the mental, physical and spiritual fitness of… personnel." p. 26 "...institutional environment must enable straightforward achievement and maintenance of medical, dental, mental, emotional, financial, spiritual and educational areas of fitness to name only a few." p. 26. Outcome : These Human Dimensions are at the core of the Soldier. In having these dimensions and their impacts: better defined and understood, as well as appropriately developed and manage, they will provide the Army with more capable Soldiers that can perform efficiently within tomorrow’s FEC (Adaptive, Networked and Integrated Forces alternatively Dispersing and Aggregating throughout the Multi-Dimensional Battlespace and JIMP environment in order to Find, Fix and Strike Full Spectrum Threats to Security and Stability.)
  18. Henry Mintzberg: “ Thinking ” is important, not necessarily the process or the plan for the future. Identifying the key future issues amidst all the “noise”.
  19. This diagram attempts to depict where we are headed. With FA2040 at the centre, each of our focus areas would then occupy a sector in an attempt to demonstrate the interrelationships between factors.
  20. Swinburne University of Technology Impact of age & demographics on military composition – Older vs younger through immigration Energy Security – Sustainable vs unsustainable Exponential Technology Growth – Set the pace vs Fall behind Human/Social response to technology – Reject technology vs embrace technology Expansion of operating environments – defensive capability vs exploitation Global Environmental Change – crisis reaction vs proactive action Globalization – acceleration vs deceleration Conflicting / Shifting Identities – global community vs fragmentation Shifting Power balance – cooperative – less friction vs competitive – more friction Resource security – sustainable supply vs unsustainable supply Distribution of wealth – uneven vs even Weapons proliferation – disarmament vs proliferation Disease & Pandemics – Shock/wildcard
  21. Swinburne University of Technology Impact of age & demographics on military composition – Older vs younger through immigration Energy Security – Sustainable vs unsustainable Exponential Technology Growth – Set the pace vs Fall behind Human/Social response to technology – Reject technology vs embrace technology Expansion of operating environments – defensive capability vs exploitation Global Environmental Change – crisis reaction vs proactive action Globalization – acceleration vs deceleration Conflicting / Shifting Identities – global community vs fragmentation Shifting Power balance – cooperative – less friction vs competitive – more friction Resource security – sustainable supply vs unsustainable supply Distribution of wealth – uneven vs even Weapons proliferation – disarmament vs proliferation Disease & Pandemics – Shock/wildcard
  22. Swinburne University of Technology Impact of age & demographics on military composition – Older vs younger through immigration Energy Security – Sustainable vs unsustainable Exponential Technology Growth – Set the pace vs Fall behind Human/Social response to technology – Reject technology vs embrace technology Expansion of operating environments – defensive capability vs exploitation Global Environmental Change – crisis reaction vs proactive action Globalization – acceleration vs deceleration Conflicting / Shifting Identities – global community vs fragmentation Shifting Power balance – cooperative – less friction vs competitive – more friction Resource security – sustainable supply vs unsustainable supply Distribution of wealth – uneven vs even Weapons proliferation – disarmament vs proliferation Disease & Pandemics – Shock/wildcard