Ce diaporama a bien été signalé.
Nous utilisons votre profil LinkedIn et vos données d’activité pour vous proposer des publicités personnalisées et pertinentes. Vous pouvez changer vos préférences de publicités à tout moment.

Twr 1 Q 2009 Outlook

Another Insightful presentation from our research arm - Torto-Wheaton.

  • Identifiez-vous pour voir les commentaires

  • Soyez le premier à aimer ceci

Twr 1 Q 2009 Outlook

  1. 1. Happy New Year? A Presentation for CBRE Capital Markets Presented By: Jim Costello, Principal, Torto Wheaton Research January 8, 2009
  2. 2. Fundamentals Well Aligned, So Far… 32 to 34 39.3 31.1 Full Service Hotels 5 to 6 6.7 5.7 Multifamily 9 to 10 9.7 10.7 Retail 9 to 10 11.8 11.3 Industrial 13 to15 17.0 13.9 Office "Natural Rate" Previous Peak 2008Q4* Sources: TWR Outlook XL Winter 2009 *Except Multifamily and Hotels, which are 2008Q3 Availability Rate
  3. 3. Refinancing is an Issue in 2009 but Most is 10 years Away Sources: TWR Outlook XL Winter 2009
  4. 4. This Downturn is Looking Worse than the Early 1990s July 1990 Source: CBRE/TWR, BLS January 2008 This gap may get worse in early 2009 with downward revisions to the employment data.
  5. 5. Mortgage Rates Bringing Payments Down Source: Freddie Mac, Federal Reserve Demand for Mortgages includes anticipation of FED purchaces 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1/3/08 2/3/08 3/3/08 4/3/08 5/3/08 6/3/08 7/3/08 8/3/08 9/3/08 10/3/08 11/3/08 12/3/08 10 Year Treasury 30 Year Conventional Mortgage
  6. 6. Leading To Re-Financing Source: Citigroup Global Markets Inc., CBRE Torto Wheaton Research Mortgage Applications
  7. 7. But Capital Markets Change is Very Gradual TED Spread has come down from highs but is only recently un-stuck from 2%...needs to get below 1% CMBX spreads (and Cash CMBS spreads and Commercial Mortgage Spreads) are still extremely elevated. Disadvantage of focus on residential is not that it won’t help with problems in commercial, but that it’s help may come too late.
  8. 8. Layoffs and Dwindling Confidence Have Led to Sharply Lower Consumer Spending… Source: BEA, TWR
  9. 9. … And Higher Personal Savings Rates Source: BEA, TWR
  10. 10. There is a Lot of Cash on the Sidelines Source: CBRE/TWR, Federal Reserve Bank
  11. 11. Monetary Policy at Bottom: No Benefit from an Upward Sloping Yield Curve Source: Federal Reserve Bank
  12. 12. Fiscal Policy now the Instrument to Boost Growth
  13. 13. Trusted Advice. Proven Performance. <ul><li>Thank You </li></ul><ul><li>www.tortowheatonresearch.com Torto Wheaton Research 260 Franklin Street, Suite 400 Boston, MA 02110 Tel: 617.912.5200 Fax: 617.912.5240 </li></ul>

×