1. Tyron Breytenbach, P.Geo, (416) 943-6747
tbreytenbach@cormark.com
MORNING MEETING NOTES
APRIL 21, 2014
Our disclosure statements are located on the second last page of this report
Recommendation: Buy (S)
Target Price: C$2.80
Almaden Minerals Ltd. (AMM-TSX)
Produces Positive PEA Just Four Years Since
Discovery
Current Price C$1.49 Shares Outstanding (MM)
52 Wk High C$2.34 Basic
52 Wk Low C$1.08 Diluted
Cash (MM) C$15.0 Mngt. & Dir.
Total Debt (MM) $0.0 Market Cap.
NAVPS C$3.30 Float
Price/NAV 0.45x EV
Dividend $0.00 Reserves
Dividend Yield 0.0% Total Resource
EV/oz AuEq 19
C$96.1
4.3 MMoz
C$81.1
0.0 MMoz
64.5
75.0
4.8
C$88.9
Unless otherwise denoted, all figures shown in US$
Investment Thesis:
Almaden is Canadian based explorer and project generator currently focused
on its flagship Ixtaca asset (4.25 MMoz AuEq) in Eastern Mexico. The
company boasts a tight share structure and remains well capitalized from
proceeds generated by the sale or option of its stable of projects in North
America (Mexico, the US and Canada).
Highlights:
• Ixtaca PEA Outlines Large Open-Pit; Profitable At Lower Metal Prices
The maiden PEA demonstrates a sizable producer (260 Koz AuEq) that works
at spot metal prices (20% after-tax IRR) and remains profitable at our lower
price forecast (17% after-tax IRR at $1,200/oz Au and $20/oz Ag). The four-
year payback is attractive when compared to assets of similar size (3.15 Moz
AuEq recovered LOM).
• Doré Production Increases Capex; Royalty Sale Provides Financing
Alternatives
The study outlined production of an Au/Ag doré bar vs. our model that
assumed a concentrate as the final product. Capex is therefore elevated to
$500 MM (from our $320 MM estimate), but is partially offset by the elimination
of the ~12% processing fee. As an unburdened resource, the sale of a stream
or royalty provides optionality in accessing pre-production capital.
• Maintaining Buy (S) Rating, Increasing Target To C$2.80 (From C$2.60)
We lower our discount rate to 5% (from 8%) to account for the newly
completed study and reduced modelling risk which has us increasing our
target to C$2.80 from C$2.60.
Company Description:
Almaden employs the project generator model to stake
early stage ground for exploration and apply its experience
and proprietary database in making new discoveries. The
company holds a portfolio of active projects, JVs and
NSRs. It is currently focused on completing a PFS for its
100%-owned 4.25 MMoz Ixtaca discovery in Eastern
Mexico.
Source: BigCharts.com, April 17, 2014 (Chart C$)
2. Tyron Breytenbach, P.Geo, (416) 943-6747
tbreytenbach@cormark.com
MORNING MEETING NOTES
APRIL 21, 2014
Our disclosure statements are located on the second last page of this report
Maiden PEA Confirms Large, Royalty Free Asset With Robust Economics: The most significant
change from our original assumption is the decision to produce a doré bar vs. concentrate and use a
larger throughput rate. These changes have increased our pre-production capital estimate to $500 MM
(from $320 MM) but also allow Almaden to recapture the smelting charge. The project generates a robust
return at even our lower metal price assumptions (17% after-tax IRR at $1,200/oz Au & $20/oz Ag) and a
solid ~20% after-tax IRR at spot gold prices. Key economic drivers are:
Low Strip Ratio: The waste rock (volcanic ash/tuff) has a much lower density than the host rock and
combined with the favorable geometry of the ore body translates into strip ratios of just 2:1.
Low Cost Jurisdiction: Mexico is well established as a mining-friendly jurisdiction with producers in the
region able to demonstrate some of the lowest unit-mining costs in the industry. A decent pool of
experienced labor and suppliers is also available. The PEA contractor mining rate of $1.81/t matches
other producers in the region (e.g. Timmins Gold, TMM-T, Market Perform rating, C$1.85 target, covered
by Kyle McPhee).
Robust Recovery: The metallurgy of Ixtaca suggests a clean concentrate without the Lb-Zn values
typical seen in most Mexican Ag ores. The company reports that even lower grade silver samples (~15 g/t
Ag) recover well. The PEA has defined an improved (90%) recovery rate for both metals following ongoing
testing as part of the design work.
No Third-Party Line Royalty: As an in-house and “organic” discovery, Ixtaca is unburdened by any third-
party top-line royalties, drastically improving economics.
Our full list of assumptions is detailed below and we have updated our model following the PEA release.
Figure 1: PEA Results & Assumptions
CSI old PEA CSI new
Long Term Gold Price ($) $1,200 $1,320 $1,200
Long Term Silver Price ($) $20 $21 $20
Tonnes Milled (MMt) 115.8 129 129
AuEq Grade (g/t) 1.14 0.80 0.84
Au Grade (g/t) 0.54 0.42 0.42
Ag Grade (g/t) 30.9 25.27 25.27
Total Mine Life (years) 13 12 12
Average Annual Throughput (tpd) 25,000 30,000 30,000
Average Ag Recovery (%) 80% 90% 90%
Average Ag Recovery (%) 78% 90% 90%
O/P Mining Costs ($/t of rock) $1.80 1.81 1.81
Strip Ratio W:O 2.00:1 2.00:1 2.00:1
Processing Costs ($/t of ore) $6.20 $9.00 $9.00
G&A Costs ($/t of ore) $2.00 $2.10 $2.10
Refinery Charge (Including Transport) (% of revenue) 12% 0 0
Average Cash Costs ($/oz AuEq) $651 N/A 717
Average All-in Sustaining Costs ($/oz AuEq) $736 N/A 750
Average Gold Equivalent Production (Koz/yr) 239 260 260
Initial Capital ($ MM) $320 $496 $500
Sustaining Capital ($ MM) $90 $106 $106
Total Captial ($ MM) $410 $602 $606
After-tax NPV5% ($ MM) $414 $437 $307
After-tax IRR (%) 27% 22% 17%
Sources: Company Reports/Cormark Securities
3. Tyron Breytenbach, P.Geo, (416) 943-6747
tbreytenbach@cormark.com
MORNING MEETING NOTES
APRIL 21, 2014
During the past twenty-four months, Cormark Securities Inc., either on its own or as a syndicate member, participated in
the underwriting of securities for these companies
Our disclosure statements are located on the second last page of this report
We Expect An Eventual Sale/Spin-out Of Ixtaca: Given the impressive production profile and safe
jurisdiction, returns are adequate down to gold prices of $1,200/oz in our view. At our conservative metal
price assumptions the after-tax IRR is a moderate 17% though we note that Ixtaca delivers the 4th highest
production rate of the group and we exclude any potential tax rebates and rely solely on the new Mexican
tax regime ($393 MM total tax burden at $1,200/oz Au & $20/oz Ag)
Figure 2: Peer Comparables Sorted By Production Profile
Annual
Production
Company Project NPV IRR NPV IRR
($MM) (%) ($MM) (%) (Koz)
♦ Pretium Resources Brucejack $2,309 54% $3,024 68% 426
Asanko Gold AGM $463 20% $842 31% 325
♦ Sabina Gold & Silver Back River $152 13% $481 27% 300
Almaden Ixtaca $307 17% $658 28% 260
♦ Guyana Goldfields Aurora $601 25% $886 33% 194
♦ Victoria Gold Eagle $232 20% $443 31% 192
Lydian International Amulsar $431 24% $624 30% 186
♦ Belo Sun Volta Grande $188 9% $561 17% 167
Newstrike Capital Ana Paula $166 20% $331 31% 162
♦ Dalradian Curraghinalt $315 42% $45 54% 160
♦ Romarco Haile $750 29% $1,051 36% 126
♦ Probe Mines Borden $244 18% $434 28% 126
♦ Kaminak Gold Corp Coffee $92 14% $236 24% 120
♦ Castle Mountain Castle Mtn $245 26% $404 38% 120
♦ True Gold Mining Karma $190 40% $300 56% 97
♦ Sulliden Gold Shahuindo $219 30% $317 42% 85
Midway Gold Pan $90 25% $157 38% 80
Golden Queen Soledad $176 22% $249 28% 80
♦ Roxgold 55-Zone $140 33% $217 46% 75
♦ West Kirkland Hasbrouck $73 35% $116 50% 65
$1,200/oz Au & $20/oz Ag $1,400/oz Au & $25/oz Ag
Sources: Company Reports/Cormark Securities
We suggest the asset may be of interest to mid-tier producers experienced in Mexico and looking to grow
production significantly. Obvious candidates include Alamos Gold (AGI-T, not rated) and Pan American
(PAA-T, not rated) as both would benefit from a ~260 Koz production boost and have healthy cash balances
(Alamos: $410 MM; Pan American: $423 MM) with minimal to no debt. We also note that the asset would
likely appeal to producers of both gold and silver as revenue is split equally between the two metals.
4. Tyron Breytenbach, P.Geo, (416) 943-6747
tbreytenbach@cormark.com
MORNING MEETING NOTES
APRIL 21, 2014
Our disclosure statements are located on the second last page of this report
Figure 3: FCF Profile At Cormark Financing Assumptions (65% Equity/35% Debt)
-1,200
-800
-400
0
400
800
1,200
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
Cum.Cash($MM)
($MM)
Capex Debt Issuance ($175 MM)
Equity Issuance ($325 MM) Interest Payment
Debt Repayments Operating Cash Flow (Base Case)
Cash at $1,100/oz Au & $18/oz Ag Cash at $1,300/oz Au & $22/oz Ag
Cash at $1,200/oz Au & $20/oz Ag
Source: Cormark Securities
Valuation: Our Ixtaca model now demonstrates an NPV5% of $307 MM after updating our project scope
to match the higher throughput rates (30,000 tpd) and flow sheet as laid out in the PEA. We have also
switched to a 5% discount rate (previously 8%) to reflect the reduced risk stemming from a published PEA
and a resource that is largely (83%) within the higher confidence M&I categories. We maintain our 0.85x
NAV multiple but update our dilution assumptions to assume the project is now financed at a 65/35%
equity to debt split and that the equity is issued at the current share price.
Figure 4: Valuation Summary
$MM $/Share
Assets
Ixtaca NPV5% 306.55 4.09
Caballo Blanco NSR Present Value (7.5%) 8.72 0.12
Remaining Exploration Ground 10.00 0.13
Remaining NSR Portfolio 0.24 0
Corporate Adjustments
Cash 15.00 0.20
Pro Forma Cash 325.00
Cash from Warrants/Options 13.13 0.18
Net Asset Value 678.62 3.14
Net Asset Value (C$) C$3.30
Basic S/O 64.49
Options and Warrants Outstanding 10.48
Fully Diluted S/O 74.97
Fully Diluted & Financed S/O 215.80
Current Almaden Share Price ($/sh) C$1.49
Price/NAV 0.45x
Source: Cormark Securities
5. Tyron Breytenbach, P.Geo, (416) 943-6747
tbreytenbach@cormark.com
MORNING MEETING NOTES
APRIL 21, 2014
Our disclosure statements are located on the second last page of this report
Upcoming Catalysts:
• Drill Results: With $15 MM in cash and equivalents, we expect continuous news flow from the large
epithermal gold system at Tuligtic - Ongoing
• Potential Asset Sale/Option: Almaden has a successful track record of monetizing its discoveries; we
would not be surprised to see a deal that includes Ixtaca or any of the 12 other earlier stage projects.
Almaden could then focus on leveraging its proprietary geological database to uncover further
economic projects and repeat the success - Ongoing
Maintain Buy (S) Recommendation, Increase Target To C$2.80: Almaden’s Ixtaca has evolved into a
sizable and robust asset that we expect is monetized to allow the company to focus on what it does best,
creating value with the drill bit. Our new valuation methodology has us increasing our target to C$2.80
(from C$2.60) and continues to be based on conservative metal pricing and 0.85x NAV multiple.
I, Tyron Breytenbach, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject
company(ies) and its (their) securities. I also certify that I have not been, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for
expressing the specific recommendation(s) in this report.
8. MORNING MEETING NOTES
APRIL 21, 2014
RECOMMENDATION TERMINOLOGY
Cormark’s recommendation terminology is as follows:
Top Pick our best investment ideas, the greatest potential value appreciation
Buy expected to outperform its peer group
Market Perform expected to perform with its peer group
Reduce expected to underperform its peer group
Our ratings may be followed by "(S)" which denotes that the investment is speculative and has a higher degree of risk associated with it.
Additionally, our target prices are set based on a 12-month investment horizon.
For Canadian Residents: This report has been approved by Cormark Securities Inc. (“CSI”), member IIROC and CIPF, which takes
responsibility for this report and its dissemination in Canada. Canadian clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do
so through a qualified salesperson of CSI. For US Residents: Cormark Securities (USA) Limited (“CUSA”), member FINRA and SIPC, accepts
responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. This report is intended for distribution in the United States only to certain
institutional investors. US clients wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed should do so through a qualified salesperson of CUSA.
Every province in Canada, state in the US, and most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating the types of securities and
other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, some of the securities
discussed in this report may not be available to every interested investor. This report is not, and under no circumstances, should be construed
as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the
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The information and any statistical data contained herein have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable as of the date of publication,
but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does CSI or CUSA assume any responsibility or
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companies and the holdings of their respective directors, officers and companies with which they are associated may have a long or short
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