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The Upside of the Downside
- 1. the Upside of the Downside Richard Heinberg Post Carbon Institute March 2009
- 2. The economic crisis changes everything before crisis I after crisis
- 7. The Fossil-Fueled Industrial Era— Winning the Energy Lottery
- 8. Meanwhile, we were developing economic institutions and theories
- 15. But remember…growth requires more energy!
- 17. How did Peak Oil contribute to the financial crisis?
- 25. “ The value of global financial assets including stocks, bonds, and currencies fell by more than $50 Trillion in 2008, equivalent to a year of world GDP.” -- Asian Development Bank
- 32. But it’s not just oil…
- 37. We’re performing a giant science experiment with the Earth’s atmosphere
- 38. So, back to the economic crisis…
- 41. The shape of the recovery V
- 42. The shape of the recovery U
- 43. The shape of the recovery L
- 48. Proactive (planning for linear adaptation) Responsive (planning for crisis management) Top-Down (government policy) Bottom-Up (grass-roots organizing) 4 Powerdown Strategies
- 49. Resilience The ability to absorb shocks and continue to function
- 51. Our current energy and economic systems are not resilient
- 52. Building resilient communities Building Resilient Communities
- 65. Include all community stakeholders in the process Those who feel excluded from the process may try to undermine it
- 67. We have to start somewhere! Why not here and now?
- 68. Remember: crisis = opportunity This is the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes. Who will seize it?
- 75. “ We must leave oil before it leaves us.” Fatih Birol Chief Economist International Energy Agency
- 95. David Cohen, “Earth’s Natural Wealth: An Audit,” New Scientist, May 26, 2007 “Some key resources will be exhausted more quickly if predicted new technologies appear and the population grows” Antimony 15-20 years Silver 15-20 years Hafnium ~10 years Tantalum 20-30 years Indium 5-10 years Uranium 30-40 years Platinum 15 years Zinc 20-30 years
- 98. Peak Oil means the end of economic growth as we have known it
- 101. Peak Oil means Peak Food
- 102. Peak Oil means the end of cheap air travel Peak Oil means the end of affordable air travel
- 109. topsoil Erosion claims 24 billion tons of topsoil per year
- 119. $10,000 Post Carbon Institute
- 120. $1,000,000 Post Carbon Institute
- 121. $100 million Post Carbon Institute
- 122. $1 billion Post Carbon Institute
- 123. $1 trillion Post Carbon Institute
Notes de l'éditeur
- For examples of criticism see Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, by Tom Tietenburg, 7 th edition , p. 151. For EIA criticism, see http://www.api.org/aboutoilgas/security/upload/Caruso2005.pdf
- It is like a scales. Although we will still be finding oil, still developing new fields if just slightly more of the world’s production capacity -- maybe just 51% -- is declining. Then production will have peaked. This is why it will be far earlier than most people expect.